California alert

[brownie]

From AP:

Scientist Predicts Earthquake by Sept. 5

By ANDREW BRIDGES, AP Science Writer

PALM SPRINGS, Calif. - A scientist who predicts a magnitude-6.4 or larger quake will strike the Southern California desert by Sept. 5 said his group has made other similar forecasts but that he would not disclose them publicly.

UCLA's Vladimir Keilis-Borok said Thursday doing so could trigger "disruptive behavior" while he and other scientists attempt to assess the validity of their largely untested prediction method.

"I would rather not talk about it," Keilis-Borok told a news conference at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America.

Other earthquake experts said the sort of predictions made by the group are of great scientific interest, but remain unproven.

"They have to understand the hypothetical nature of this research," Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, said of the public. "These types of predictions are made with tremendous amounts of uncertainty."

They also are of limited utility, whether disclosed or not, since they cover broad areas already known to be seismically active and large spans of time, experts added.

"You can argue people should do earthquake preparedness anyway and this is another reason to do it," said Egill Hauksson, a California Institute of Technology geophysicist.

Keilis-Borok and his colleagues predict there is a 50-50 chance that an earthquake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5.

The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. It has experienced nine magnitude-6.4 or larger quakes over the last 70 years.

Some of those quakes killed people and toppled buildings, while others passed almost unnoticed, said William Ellsworth, chief scientist of the U.S. Geological Survey's earthquake hazards team.

The new prediction gives quake scientists a bully pulpit to remind people of the very real seismic risk in the region, Ellsworth added.

"We know there will be earthquakes," he said. "The advice is out there and not always is it followed or taken seriously."

Keilis-Borok's team successfully forecast two earthquakes last year, the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in Central California and the magnitude-8.1 quake off Japan's Hokkaido island. As with the current Southern California prediction, the group had set wide limits in place and time for both quakes.

It's "only two, which is emphatically not enough to justify the methodology," Keilis-Borok said.

Beyond California and Japan, Keilis-Borok said his group also focuses on Italy and the Middle East. He would not say what regions his other predictions touched upon.

However, Ellsworth, of the USGS, said he knew of no other predictions for California quakes made by the group.

Keilis-Borok has said previously that he believes the combination of pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory and statistical physics allows earthquakes to be predicted as hitting within a nine-month window.

He said he would disclose his other predictions at the close of the window or after the predicted quake occurred.

Edited April 16, 2004 by brownie

[Jazzmoose]

Well, if you want to make a name as a seer of the future, you could do far worse than predict an earthquake in California. We're always ready for the big one. Or at least expecting it.

[AfricaBrass]

A 6.4 quake.... I'm shaking in my boots!!!!!

Only little girly-men worry about a 6.4

Anything under a 7.0 isn't trying that hard.

I'm sorry.... I'm not trying to tempt fate or anything.

The truth is, I plan on moving out of California before than anyway.

[Shrdlu]

Well, no Baptist preacher could resist commenting on this one!

Jesus said that, just before his second coming, there will be "earthquakes in divers places." (Matthew 24). And there have been a lot worldwide in the last couple of decades.

Better be prepared by getting saved. "Therefore be ye also ready, for in such an hour as ye think not, the Son of man cometh."

That old trumpet is going to sound pretty soon, and all believers will suddenly vanish. This will be at the start of a horrible seven year period known as the Tribulation period, with a dictator of the whole world worse than Adolf himself.

[RDK]

This will be at the start of a horrible seven year period known as the Tribulation period, with a dictator of the whole world worse than Adolf himself.

Johnny? Johnny? Shrdlu's lobbing one right over the plate...

[Shrdlu]

No, not me. God is doing the lobbing. I'm just the mailman delivering the message.

[neveronfriday]

I didn't lob anything, thank you.

[Jazzmoose]

That old trumpet is going to sound pretty soon, and all believers will suddenly vanish.

That's certainly something to look forward to...

[catesta]

This will be at the start of a horrible seven year period known as the Tribulation period, with a dictator of the whole world worse than Adolf himself.

Johnny? Johnny? Shrdlu's lobbing one right over the plate...

[couw]

This will be at the start of a horrible seven year period known as the Tribulation period, with a dictator of the whole world worse than Adolf himself.

was he in the bible ?

didn't people rant about the same thing back then?

the only thing I would like is for that old trumpet to resound pretty soon. I hope that means brownie's coming back. or lee. Or maybe even king louis.

[JSngry]

Anybody remember Donovan's "Atlantis", which was a big hit right around the time that scientists were predicting an earthquake that would send California a-slidin' off into the mighty brine? Might be time for a revival.

Donovan was goofy, but cool!

[Jazzdog]

A 6.4 in LA?

No Problem!!!

[catesta]

A 6.4 quake.... I'm shaking in my boots!!!!!

Only little girly-men worry about a 6.4

Anything under a 7.0 isn't trying that hard.

I'm sorry.... I'm not trying to tempt fate or anything.

Just as long as that sucker comes after I make my trip to San Diego in July.

Call me a girly-man, but I don't even want to be feelin' a .64 when I'm on vacation. B)

[JSngry]

Call me a girly-man...

If Donovan makes a comeback, can we call you a hurdy-gurdy man? If you want to do a tag-team, I'll be the roly-poly man.

[Matthew]

A 6.4 in LA?

No Problem!!!

I know, we can handle anything down here!

On a side note, who has been in big quakes? I was in Berkeley when the NoCal big one hit. Also in Redlands when there was a 6.4 & 6.8(?) on the same day. When the first one hit, I turned over and went back to sleep. The Euro's in the house were terrified!

[catesta]

Call me a girly-man...

If Donovan makes a comeback, can we call you a hurdy-gurdy man? If you want to do a tag-team, I'll be the roly-poly man.

Cool, but I want to do it up old school style with the masks and crazy costumes.

And we got to have a couple of hot chicks walk us to the ring.

[RainyDay]

A 6.4 in LA?

No Problem!!!

Where were you at 5:04 PM on October 17, 1989? Been feeling all those little swarms in Berkeley, Moraga, Hayward, etc. that have happened lately? I'm less than three miles down the hill from the Hayward fault sitting on good old Oakland sand. Rock and roll, baby.

[king ubu]

I didn't lob anything, thank you.

Glad about that I am!

ubu

[AfricaBrass]

I was just teasing before.

I've been through some earthquakes that scared the crap out of me.

I just remember hearing these gloom and doom warnings for the last 25 years or so. There was a kid at my school back in '79 whose family moved away from California because they were sure the "Big One" was coming.

I figure we'll get the big quake here in SoCal eventually, but I hope I'm gone by then.

[JSngry]

[AfricaBrass]

"Way down below the ocean.... where I want to be....."

[JSngry]

All hail...

HAIL ATLANTIS!

[JSngry]

[ghost of miles]

"The Big One? Elizabeth, honey, I'm comin' to join ya!"

[Jazzmoose]

After the Loma Prieta quake back in '89 (wanna see pictures of my grandchildren?), I don't even notice these little quakes.