soulpope Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 10 minutes ago, Rooster_Ties said: I wonder if the National Weather Service will ultimately (in a few or several years) come up with a new numerical system beyond just the “Cat 3, Cat 4, Cat 5” we all know — that integrates the threat of storm surge into the number. There are lots of Cat 3 hurricanes that get downgraded to 2 and 1 quickly — but still dump *massive* amounts of rainfall on an area, and have huge storm surges. While not being a hurricane expert I believe the climate change results in sustainably higher sea temperatures leading to much higher evaporation and finally to long massive rainfall (we've seen this in Europe this year several times) will force Weather Forecast worldwide to adapt predictions and introduce new gradings/warning systems which take the forementioned changes in account .... Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 8 Author Report Posted October 8 (edited) People should actually read the Safir-Simpson scale and consider ... what is worse than 'catastrophic' damage? Got a better adjective? https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson They also incorporate rain predictions into flash flood warnings plus storm surge predictions. 125 as it nears the coast gives me a little hope our barn and apartment/garage structure will live on. The problem is that the due west end is a gable roof. My wife may have to convince her uncle and aunt to come to our house for the duration. Edit to add: The two story structure that the aunt and uncle live in is directly in front of (attached) to the one story wood frame/metal roof actual stalls for horses. So that is a strong wind buffer for direct effects where the horses will be. We've also screwed down - extra, extra screws - the metal slats into the frame. I actually feel better about where the horses will be than where the family members will be. Edited October 8 by Dan Gould Quote
Kevin Bresnahan Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 (edited) WCVB out of Boston has this on their weather page: A storm surge of 10-15' is possibly around Tampa Bay south to Fort Myers. If it hits Tampa it will be the worst storm to hit there in the past 100 years. Edit to add: The right side of the track is typically where find the strongest winds. On the left side its the torrential rains. Over a foot is possible. Tornadoes are also likely when a hurricane moves inland. Edited October 8 by Kevin Bresnahan Quote
rostasi Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 (edited) Does anyone know why three of the four lanes of traffic that would normally be used to go into the city aren't being used to take people out of it? (or five out of six lanes?) Edited October 8 by rostasi Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 8 Author Report Posted October 8 (edited) And I haven't mentioned my buddy who skedaddled to their house in the NC mountains (somehow no damage there despite how western North Carolina has been described) but not before discovering that their insurance lapsed in March. They paid off the mortgage a few years ago so no escrow account, and insist they got neither a non-renewal notice, a renewal offer or a cancelation notice. They are surrounded by the bay Edited October 8 by Dan Gould Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 1 hour ago, rostasi said: Does anyone know why three of the four lanes of traffic that would normally be used to go into the city aren't being used to take people out of it? (or five out of six lanes?) To allow emergency vehicles in. It is likely that they will open this up at some point for last-minute evacuees. Quote
T.D. Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 I think the National Weather Service is the best source for storm graphics. Milton The "Peak Surge", "Rainfall Potential" and "Wind Speed Probabilities" are all worrisome. Example: the 50 knot wind probability chart: Quote
rostasi Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Teasing the Korean said: To allow emergency vehicles in. It is likely that they will open this up at some point for last-minute evacuees. Aaah, OK. I was thinking that one lane going in for emergency vehicles and delivering of fuel, etc. would've been enough. Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 10 minutes ago, rostasi said: Aaah, OK. I was thinking that one lane going in for emergency vehicles and delivering of fuel, etc. would've been enough. I think they are trying to get as much in as possible as early as possible. I'm sure they will make the call to change directions, possibly overnight. Latest I'm seeing is that landfall is supposed to occur Wednesday at around 2pm EST. Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 8 Author Report Posted October 8 33 minutes ago, Teasing the Korean said: Latest I'm seeing is that landfall is supposed to occur Wednesday at around 2pm EST. Current map is offshore (close but not yet) at 7 pm Wed and 7 am Thursday over Orlando. So I have no idea who might be indicating 2 pm Wednesday landfall. 2 pm Wednesday Tropical Storm force winds maybe. Quote
gvopedz Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 There probably are several live stream cameras in the Tampa area that will let you see (on the Internet) the hurricane's landfall - at least while the cameras do not go offline. Quote
T.D. Posted October 8 Report Posted October 8 In response to a "wobble" today, the 5 PM (Eastern time) guidance has shifted slightly South. Marginally better for the Tampa area, but quoting the NHC's latest discussion: It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 8 Author Report Posted October 8 The cone is narrowing and still centered on Tampa. If it could slide south and hit Sarasota it could make a small difference for me and my friend who is so close to the bay. And a small difference is both a slender reed to hang your hopes on, and could make all the difference in the world. Quote
romualdo Posted October 9 Report Posted October 9 On 10/7/2024 at 11:48 PM, Teasing the Korean said: Staying. Stay safe Dan (Orlando) & Drew (Tampa) - have experienced many cyclones (hurricanes) & floods here in the mid-northern region of Australia (Brisbane) since the 60s Quote
soulpope Posted October 9 Report Posted October 9 2 hours ago, rostasi said: view from the International Space Station Wow 😱 .... Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 9 Report Posted October 9 2 pm Wednesday. It's pouring here. Still have electricity and cell service. Quote
rostasi Posted October 9 Report Posted October 9 22 minutes ago, Teasing the Korean said: 2 pm Wednesday. It's pouring here. Still have electricity and cell service. Do you have a generator ready? Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 9 Report Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, rostasi said: Do you have a generator ready? No. We'll tough it out. Of course, if we lose power for weeks, we may think differently. Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 9 Author Report Posted October 9 uncle/aunt/cat/dog are secure in our concrete block home. Horses locked in. Track is improved both for us and for my friend on the Bay, if it holds. Now we wait. Won't be long. See y'all when I see ya. Quote
felser Posted October 10 Report Posted October 10 Landfall was nearest to Siesta Key, a beautiful beach near Sarasota. Maybe 45 minutes south of Tampa? Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 10 Report Posted October 10 We are in Temple Terrace, near USF in North Tampa. Our power miraculously stayed on until about 9:30 pm. The extreme wind warning has been lifted for us, but you wouldn't know it listening to what's going on outside. Quote
JSngry Posted October 10 Report Posted October 10 Milton has wrecked the roof off the Trop... https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/local-news/the-roof-of-tropicana-field-was-ripped-off-by-hurricane-miltons-winds Tear the roof off the suckah? Quote
Teasing the Korean Posted October 10 Report Posted October 10 Was texting with @Stonewall15. The storm should be reaching him at around 2-3 am EST. Quote
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