Hurricane Milton

[Dan Gould]

I'll tell you the truth:

This thing is starting to scare the ever loving CRAP out of me,  when I think of six horses plus two elderly family members living above the barn. I've helpfully put a little yellow mark approximately where we live.

[JSngry]

Whoa...good luck on that path changing, changing a lot...

[felser]

You and your family are in our thoughts and prayers.  And we have a niece who lives in St. Pete.

[tranemonk]

I'm so sorry. Are you going to evacuate? Or is that basically impossible at this point? Good luck and I'm sorry.

[Dan Gould]

Just now, tranemonk said:

I'm so sorry. Are you going to evacuate? Or is that basically impossible at this point? Good luck and I'm sorry.

There is no evacuating with six horses.  The hoped-for saving grace is that the worst wind will come from the west and there is a two story building in front of the wooden/metal roof where the horses will be locked down.

[Rooster_Ties]

Will be thinking about you, Dan. When is the predicted landfall?

[Ken Dryden]

I can’t imagine enduring two hurricanes so close together. Be safe, Dan, hope you have a generator.

[Dan Gould]

50 minutes ago, Rooster_Ties said:

Will be thinking about you, Dan. When is the predicted landfall?

Wednesday during the day.  A colleague is in north Georgia and she was out a week for Helene, and mentioned how much she hated the storm hitting during the middle of the night when you can't tell anything about what is going on other than the roaring wind and rain.

48 minutes ago, Ken Dryden said:

I can’t imagine enduring two hurricanes so close together. Be safe, Dan, hope you have a generator.

Helene did basically nothing to us being 25 miles or so inland, but two other colleagues live in Tampa and St Pete and close to the ocean.  They are definitely going thru it twice in a row.  We do have a generator, two of them. Once we get to the other side we can go a while without power as needed. I am just worried about what could happen when it hits.  The track right now has the center about 20 miles (maybe) to our south.

TTK is definitely at risk, hopefully he is battening down and perhaps getting the hell out of Dodge.

 

[GA Russell]

Prayers sent, Dan!

[Ken Dryden]

My cousin and her husband are evacuating their island home in Tampa Bay tomorrow. 

I can't even imagine what a 15 foot storm surge would be like. I remember riding around a desolate part of New Orleans the summer after Katrina hit and seeing the numerous vacant or destroyed homes, plus the high water mark on a statue in front of a church. My cousin and her brother grew up in a small 1940s house a few blocks from Tampa Bay.

[Teasing the Korean]

Staying.

[soulpope]

Good luck 🙏 ....

[Teasing the Korean]

28 minutes ago, soulpope said:

Good luck 🙏 ....

Thank you!  We live in an area where people evacuate to, so that's our rationale.  No guarantees, but given the choice, I would rather be here than closer to the coastline.

[mjazzg]

Be thinking of you TtK, and Dan and the horses

[Teasing the Korean]

24 minutes ago, mjazzg said:

Be thinking of you TtK, and Dan and the horses

Also @Stonewall15.

[mjazzg]

Just now, Teasing the Korean said:

Also @Stonewall15.

Indeed, all of you and anyone else too

[GA Russell]

Prayers for TTK and Stonewall too!

Twitter/X now has something called "Hurricane Milton - Check On" which may be of interest or use to some here. 

https://x.com/PatriotVerity/status/1843367001882014064

[Dan Gould]

On the positive side our helper, Danny, got up on the metal roof over the horses and drilled in a box of screws into the wood frame and feels that the roof can't go anywhere. That of course presumes that the roof frame itself has no weak spots. Guess we will see!

[mikeweil]

Crossing my fingers for all concerned!

[felser]

Also @Gdgray .

[rostasi]

“Rapid intensification” occurs when a cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Milton’s maximum sustained winds exploded from 100 mph to 175 mph — a 75 mph increase — in roughly nine hours.

an emotional meteorologist

[Dan Gould]

The "good" news: As of 5 am max sustained winds predicted at 125, which are hairy, but not 150+.

The undoubtedly bad news: The current track line is within <5 miles from my house.

[Kevin Bresnahan]

2 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

The "good" news: As of 5 am max sustained winds predicted at 125, which are hairy, but not 150+.

The undoubtedly bad news: The current track line is within <5 miles from my house.

Not trying to be an alarmist, but I've read a couple of reports that say that Milton strengthening so far off shore with the expectation that it would weaken before it makes land is much worse, because it causes the hurricane to widen dramatically and intensifies the storm surge, which makes Tampa Bay very vulnerable. I've read one report that said that over 50% of Tampa Bay is less than 10 feet above sea level.

Tampa Bay could be in serious trouble.

[Rooster_Ties]

I wonder if the National Weather Service will ultimately (in a few or several years) come up with a new numerical system beyond just the “Cat 3, Cat 4, Cat 5” we all know — that integrates the threat of storm surge into the number.

There are lots of Cat 3 hurricanes that get downgraded to 2 and 1 quickly — but still dump *massive* amounts of rainfall on an area, and have huge storm surges.

[Dan Gould]

14 minutes ago, Kevin Bresnahan said:

Not trying to be an alarmist, but I've read a couple of reports that say that Milton strengthening so far off shore with the expectation that it would weaken before it makes land is much worse, because it causes the hurricane to widen dramatically and intensifies the storm surge, which makes Tampa Bay very vulnerable. I've read one report that said that over 50% of Tampa Bay is less than 10 feet above sea level.

Tampa Bay could be in serious trouble.

Tampa Bay is in serious trouble period.  Weakening makes wind field larger which widens the impact.  I'd rather have lower sustained winds, period.