Hurricane Ian

[Dan Gould]

I know TTK is in Tampa not sure of other regulars in the path of this beast.

It is far and away the closest and most frightening storm we have dealt with since I moved to south Florida 25 years ago. The black diagonal is the forecast track as of 8 am today. I've helpfully added a yellow blob for the approximate location of the homestead. There's hardly any time left for this to move in such a way that it remotely minimizes the threat we are facing. 

[JSngry]

Wish well to all those in any portion of the storm's path. We lived in Tampa for a year and a half back in the day. Tampa itself was always thought to be "immune" from a storm making landfall, but here we go now....and as you cross that longass bridge to get over to St. Pete and all that,,,lots of properties built not too far off the coastal shores...Yikes.

All, please do take care.

[Teasing the Korean]

We are on high ground, and we have hurricane-grade windows, so we are riding it out.  Thanks for the well wishes!

Another member with whom I communicate is near Orlando.  Hopefully they won't get hit as hard.

[Rooster_Ties]

Dan, and everyone/anyone else, take the very best care. Stay safe! 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Rooster_Ties

[Teasing the Korean]

1 hour ago, JSngry said:

We lived in Tampa for a year and a half back in the day.

May I ask what years?

[JSngry]

1990-91

[Teasing the Korean]

4 minutes ago, JSngry said:

1990-91

You and I overlapped. I left in April 1991, and came back in March 2003.

Did you hear Kenny Drew, Jr. when you were here?  I think he arrived in '89 or '90.

[Dan Gould]

11 AM update has shifted southeast again, with center not hitting Tampa directly.

OTOH the center of the projected path is maybe 2 miles to the southeast of us now. So basically this trend better keep going. My wife is barely on the controlled side of hysteria.

[Teasing the Korean]

2 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

11 AM update has shifted southeast again, with center not hitting Tampa directly.

OTOH the center of the projected path is maybe 2 miles to the southeast of us now. So basically this trend better keep going. My wife is barely on the controlled side of hysteria.

Well, only the cone has shifted slightly south.  We are still well within range.

[JSngry]

5 minutes ago, Teasing the Korean said:

Did you hear Kenny Drew, Jr. when you were here?  I think he arrived in '89 or '90.

Did not. I found the Tampa-St. Pete driving infrastructure at the time to be hopelessly constipated and stayed home as much as possible. No expressways, red lights all the way on every damn street/road. Every damn one of them. Drives that on the map looked like they would be 10-15 minutes ended up taking 30+. I understand it's better now? I sure hope so!

As I recall, Drew Jr. was working in a "smooth jazz" club/restaurant playing what I assume was that type of music. The only "real" jazz club was in Clearwater(?), and hour+ drive, and that place had a house band that had been there forever. Not a bad band, really, but nobody sat in on that gig, I was told. One more reason to just stay home and take care of the kids day and night.

Truthfully, we did not enjoy our time there at all.

 

[Dan Gould]

11 minutes ago, Teasing the Korean said:

Well, only the cone has shifted slightly south.  We are still well within range.

I don't expect a miracle like getting out of the cone. I'd love a trend toward landfall south of Sarasota which would likely make max sustained winds maybe 100 mph here - and its usually considered the NE quadrant is the worst spot to be other than a direct hit by the eyewall. Further south means its more likely to pass to the east. 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Dan Gould

[Teasing the Korean]

5 minutes ago, JSngry said:

Did not. I found the Tampa-St. Pete driving infrastructure at the time to be hopelessly constipated and stayed home as much as possible. No expressways, red lights all the way on every damn street/road. Every damn one of them. Drives that on the map looked like they would be 10-15 minutes ended up taking 30+. I understand it's better now? I sure hope so!

As I recall, Drew Jr. was working in a "smooth jazz" club/restaurant playing what I assume was that type of music. The only "real" jazz club was in Clearwater(?), and hour+ drive, and that place had a house band that had been there forever. Not a bad band, really, but nobody sat in on that gig, I was told. One more reason to just stay home and take care of the kids day and night.

Truthfully, we did not enjoy our time there at all.

Between fall 1990 and April 1991, I had a "jazz" gig in South Tampa backing up a female singer who was pretty good but was always three sheets to the wind by the second set.  The proprietor was always trying to put the moves on her, and she would have none of it, not even when she was drunk.  The  bass player was good, an old warrior who played acoustic bass.  The drummer, not so much. 

You could have sat in with us if you had brought your sax.

I had a legal pad on which I drew a vertical line down the middle of a page, with "reasons to stay" listed on one side and "reasons to leave" listed on the other.  That gig was listed on the "reasons to leave" side.  The extra cash was nice, but that was about it.  

 

[Larry Kart]

Good luck to all in the Tampa area.

[Teasing the Korean]

Just now, Larry Kart said:

Good luck to all in the Tampa area.

Thank you!

[Larry Kart]

Tampa folks -- please report when you are able to.

[Teasing the Korean]

2 minutes ago, Larry Kart said:

Tampa folks -- please report when you are able to.

Will do.  It's supposed to really happen tomorrow, but we may be hit by bands tonight.

[Kevin Bresnahan]

3 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

I know TTK is in Tampa not sure of other regulars in the path of this beast.

It is far and away the closest and most frightening storm we have dealt with since I moved to south Florida 25 years ago. The black diagonal is the forecast track as of 8 am today. I've helpfully added a yellow blob for the approximate location of the homestead. There's hardly any time left for this to move in such a way that it remotely minimizes the threat we are facing.

Latest path makes it look like it is going right over the top of you. You may be a little to the west (which is better than the east) but still not good. It's Tuesday. It's not hitting until Thursday morning. You sure you can't get the hell out of there?

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9388665,-82.1133713,12z/data=!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11tdkzm_50

Good luck.

[Dan Gould]

2 minutes ago, bresna said:

Latest path makes it look like it is going right over the top of you. You may be a little to the west (which is better than the east) but still not good. It's Tuesday. It's not hitting until Thursday morning. You sure you can't get the hell out of there?

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9388665,-82.1133713,12z/data=!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11tdkzm_50

Good luck.

Not with six horses and a trailer that takes three at a time. There was a place close by that rented stalls out and is rated for a Cat 5 storm but they closed. In fact before they closed I think they got dinged by the state for price-gouging. We used them once or twice for less threatening storms but unless we can get horses safe somewhere close we're in it for the duration.

As I said I just hope that the track keeps moving east and south and it ultimately passes us to the east. 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

4 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

Not with six horses and a trailer that takes three at a time. There was a place close by that rented stalls out and is rated for a Cat 5 storm but they closed. In fact before they closed I think they got dinged by the state for price-gouging. We used them once or twice for less threatening storms but unless we can get horses safe somewhere close we're in it for the duration.

As I said I just hope that the track keeps moving east and south and it ultimately passes us to the east. 

No one in the horse community who could come in and help? Is the barn able to withstand 120-140 winds? If not... maybe drive 3 of them north and drive back and grab the other 3 and get out just in time?

Edited September 27, 2022 by bresna

[Dan Gould]

5 minutes ago, bresna said:

No one in the horse community who could come in and help? Is the barn able to withstand 120-140 winds? If not... maybe drive 3 of them north and drive back and grab the other 3 and get out just in time?

My wife hasn't even considered it, I have no idea if there's another location built to hurricane standards, and the drive north won't get out of the way of the storm without making it impossible to get back and do it again. Time has run out for that course of action.

By the way, current track actually has 85 mph winds when directly over us, per our local news. Even as a direct hit I'd take that over a major hurricane churning thru Tampa Bay and coming that close to us. On the 8 am scenario we'd have 110+ winds. The further south it goes the better the chance that its a strong cat 1 not a cat 3 when the worst reaches us.

[Kevin Bresnahan]

I really hope for the best Dan. This sounds brutal.

I hope those weather people are not talking about sustained wind speeds of 85 mph. It's usually the wind gusts that do the most damage up our way.

[Dan Gould]

4 minutes ago, bresna said:

I really hope for the best Dan. This sounds brutal.

I hope those weather people are not talking about sustained wind speeds of 85 mph. It's usually the wind gusts that do the most damage up our way.

Thank you, and yes, max sustained winds (I think its one minute increments that they use) of 85 is what is forecast at this moment for its closest pass to us. Gusts will go higher. I think the damage from gusts come after the sustained effect of winds but I feel like 85 mph sustained is something the house and barn will withstand (the barn isn't a closed off structure, winds go thru one side to the other. Although there is a gable end) without too much trouble.

[Rooster_Ties]

2 hours ago, Larry Kart said:

Tampa folks -- please report when you are able to.

Yes, please do -- Dan, when you can.  Will be thinkin' about you for the next 3 days at least, and hoping for better news than otherwise.

[Teasing the Korean]

3 hours ago, bresna said:

Latest path makes it look like it is going right over the top of you. You may be a little to the west (which is better than the east) but still not good. It's Tuesday. It's not hitting until Thursday morning. You sure you can't get the hell out of there?

https://www.google.com/maps/@27.9388665,-82.1133713,12z/data=!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s%2Fg%2F11tdkzm_50

Good luck.

I don't know about Dan, but Temple Terrace, where I live, is on very high ground (as Florida goes).  We are rated a Y on a scale of A to Z for elevation, with Z being highest.  This is an area where people evacuate to in these storms. Our house has Miami-Dade approved hurricane windows, and also a brand new roof.  Between all of those things, I feel good about riding things out.  On the other hand, a tree could fall on the house, so I by no means take this lightly. 

I will report back as long as I have an InterWebz.

[Ken Dryden]

My best wishes to all for safety from the storm. I have two cousins living in Tampa, one of whom lives on a manmade island in Tampa Bay.

I rode out Hurricane Donna in Coral Gables in 1960 and Cleo west of Ft. Lauderdale a few years later. It was exciting as a kid, though boredom set in awhile after the power went out. The only damage I remember from Cleo was a leaky window that ruined some American Heritage jigsaw puzzles I had on my bedroom floor and a tile coming loose from the roof.

But Andrew really devastated some other relatives living in Dade County when it hit.

People need to take evacuation notices seriously if they are in danger from storm surges near the coast or flooding.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Ken Dryden