Chiefs/Bengals game question

[Larry Kart]

52 minutes ago, JSngry said:

Winstar is The Official Casino Of The Dallas Cowboys!

 

Btw, is there a football equivalent of Sabermetrics?

Good question. So-called analytics, for sure, in football but I don't think the synergistic (22 men on the field, interacting) nature of the game lends itself to Sabremetrics and its (or so I believe) tight focus on individual, isolatable performance  (e.g. fielding range) and one-on-one matchups (batter vs. pitcher). For instance, you could try to measure a particular db against a particular wide receiver, but the outcome of those encounters is so dependent on, say, what the QB does or what the other defensive players do.

[JSngry]

Well, then, we're left (for the time being) of some 20th Century combination of magical-thinking, gut instinct, football "sense" and 21st Century telecommunications where you can make you best-informed guess in the booth and beam it right into the qb's helmet. Then, if you get it right, what a bold/smart call, and if you don't, what a dumbass call!

Really, you play the odds as you understand them, but any single outcome that is not 100% guaranteed is essentially a a random one. Odds are cumulative, not specific.

Is it any wonder the Raiders are in Las Vegas and the Cowboys have an Official Casino? It's like Wall Street, only with sports. What could possibly go wrong there?

If only the dumbass baseball players would figure out how to beat shifts...

[Larry Kart]

While predicting the outcomes is not perfect, the process is not random; coaches call plays based on close observation of the tendencies of their opponents and the game situation. To take an obvious example, calling a screen pass would make little sense unless one felt sure that a vigorous pass rush was in the offing. All of this, and much more, is grist for a team's analytics department.

It helps of course to have better players than your opponent does, but teams do spend a lot of time and effort trying to put the right players in the right places at the right times, and when they do so it usually pays off. How many times, for example, do  you see a player break free for a  easy TD, and upon viewing the replay you see that he didn't make a stunning athletic move but rather that the play that was cailed left him more or less in the open/uncovered? Afterwards In the booth you may see some analytics nerd getting a pat on the back.

[JSngry]

Still, I would not bet on any sporting event, especially a professional one.

[Michael]

9 hours ago, JSngry said:

Still, I would not bet on any sporting event, especially a professional one.

I used to bet on the NFL and did OK.  There are good spots if you are disciplined and have reasonable expectations.  The Bengals seemed to be a very strong play, with Chiefs and Mahomes high public profile causing a higher than expected (by me) line.   It is similar to the stock market.  A contrarian can do well but it takes some nerve to go against the crowd.  You need to be able to recognize value.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Michael

[Kevin Bresnahan]

I would never bet on a game in today's NFL. The referring is horrible and there have been far too many games where their bad calls have dramatically changed outcomes. It makes the NFL a much more random thing than it should be. The only sport where this is worse is basketball, where fouls are often called based on the name & number on the back of the jersey rather than any actual violation.

[JSngry]