Chiefs/Bengals game question

[Larry Kart]

I quote:

"The Bengals offense held up its end of the bargain by posting two field goals and a touchdown to give Cincinnati a 24-21 lead. Kansas City’s offense stopped its drought by driving to a first and goal the Bengals' 5-yard line very late in the fourth quarter, but two sacks by Cincinnati forced the Chiefs to settle for a tying Harrison Butker field goal."

Maybe I just misunderstood what was going on there, but it seemed inexplicable to me that when the Chiefs, trailing by three points, drove "to a first and goal  [at] the Bengals' 5-yard line very late in the fourth quarter" they then seemingly didn't try very hard to score a TD when they pretty much knew thy could kick a field goal and send the game into overtime. Yes, attempts to score a TD could have failed, but even a failed TD attempt or two probably still would have left time for an almost certain game-tying Chiefs' field goal (barring a turnover). But to take a 28-24 lead at that very late point in the game, even if Burrow and the Bengals would have been left with some time (but not much IIRC) to mount a go-ahead drive, certainly seemed to me like the thing to do.

Yes, there were those two sacks mentioned above, after which that Chiefs' game-tying FG attempt was obligatory. But those sacks came on plays from the Chiefs that seemed rather half-hearted to me, not the sort of aggressive stuff one expects from Mahones and Co. Ir's as though they were playing for the tie. If so, why?

[Chuck Nessa]

My mind is still reeling from the Bills / Chiefs game last week - though I was pulling for the Chiefs today, I can't think about it tonight.

[Larry Kart]

29 minutes ago, Chuck Nessa said:

My mind is still reeling from the Bills / Chiefs game last week - though I was pulling for the Chiefs today, I can't think about it tonight.

Can't imagine what the ending of that game mustt have felt like to Bills fans.  That last Biis TD pass felt like it had to be the conclusion. 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

The Bills should have pooched the kick off. They would've run time off of those 13 seconds that way. By kicking it through the endzone, no time went off the clock. To compound that mistake, they played soft on D and allowed two throws in front of them. Yeah, you want to protect from a long throw/TD, but you don't have to give up 20 & 22 yard passes to do that.

As for the Chiefs yesterday, the main question is what was Andy Reid doing at the end of the first half? You take the points there. That was really stupid.

[Larry Kart]

2 hours ago, bresna said:

The Bills should have pooched the kick off. They would've run time off of those 13 seconds that way. By kicking it through the endzone, no time went off the clock. To compound that mistake, they played soft on D and allowed two throws in front of them. Yeah, you want to protect from a long throw/TD, but you don't have to give up 20 & 22 yard passes to do that.

As for the Chiefs yesterday, the main question is what was Andy Reid doing at the end of the first half? You take the points there. That was really stupid.

Both are good points, especially the first one,  but still why did the Chiefs at the end of regulation vs. the Bengals seemingly play for a tie instead of trying to score a TD, which likely would have iced the game. Did Reid fear that Burrow was Superman and his defense was tissue paper? IIRC, the plays KC ran down there were half-hearted, and if those attempts had failed, there still would have been time to kick the FG, as they did. Throw a pass to Kelce for God's sake!

Yes, Reid's first half decision was a boner, but toward the end of regulation the whole game was staring the Orange marshmallow  right in the face, and he went for a tie instead of the win when he still had the FG in the bag? What am I missing?

[Dan Gould]

All I can say is I wouldn't normally have a rooting interest but Cincy in the big game after 33 years is really cool. I'll be pulling for them.

[JSngry]

10 minutes ago, Larry Kart said:

What am I missing?

Other than that he made a rickety decision and it cost him, nothing, really. People do that.

Mahomes doesn't get picked in OT and instead moves the team to either FG or TD to win, hey, it's a question that doesn't really get asked except on a nit-picky level.

2 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

All I can say is I wouldn't normally have a rooting interest but Cincy in the big game after 33 years is really cool. I'll be pulling for them.

I still think of them as an AFL expansion team! The Dolphins, not really (even though they were, too). But the Bengals...

I do think it's cool that Paul Brown was their father. Good story there.

 

[Larry Kart]

 

KC had first and goal on the Bengals' 5-yard line toward the end of regulation, and it's a nitpickey question? Again, what am I missing? Score a TD there, making the score 28-24, and that probably would have been the game. 

[Steve Reynolds]

2 hours ago, Larry Kart said:

 

KC had first and goal on the Bengals' 5-yard line toward the end of regulation, and it's a nitpickey question? Again, what am I missing? Score a TD there, making the score 28-24, and that probably would have been the game. 

They were trying to score the TD but not leave time on the clock. Too fancy. Maybe the run on first down was ok to get Cincy to take their last timeout. Then Mahomes continued to spit the bit. Score when you can and play defense. It’s what Bill would have done. Andy Reid has a very poor track record on these games and situations just as he & Mahomes messed up at the end of the first half. Bigger issue is after gaining over 300 yards in the first half, they never adjusted to the 8 man coverage the Bengals went to in the second half. 

 

 

 

[JSngry]

56 minutes ago, Steve Reynolds said:

Bigger issue is after gaining over 300 yards in the first half, they never adjusted to the 8 man coverage the Bengals went to in the second half. 

Hello!

Also, again - if Mahones doesn't get picked on the first possession of OT, are we even talking about this?

Armchair quarterbacking is all based on trailing indicators. The games are played in real time. with strategies also based (usually) on trailing indicators that are in no way a guarantee of future performance.

In ther words, you don't know until it happens. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

[Larry Kart]

12 minutes ago, JSngry said:

Hello!

Also, again - if Mahones doesn't get picked on the first possession of OT, are we even talking about this?

Armchair quarterbacking is all based on trailing indicators. The games are played in real time. with strategies also based (usually) on trailing indicators that are in no way a guarantee of future performance.

In ther words, you don't know until it happens. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

If I may quote from Steve Reynolds (above) and what he says about Reid's too fancy "thinking"  -- thatI do understand:

"They were trying to score the TD but not leave time on the clock. Too fancy. Maybe the run on first down was ok to get Cincy to take their last timeout. Then Mahomes continued to spit the bit. Score when you can and play defense.... Andy Reid has a very poor track record on these games and situations just as he & Mahomes messed up at the end of the first half."

Also, Jim, what happened in OT has no bearing on Reid's prior end-of-regulation realtime decisions, which I thought were dubious right at the time. Further, KC could have lost the OT coin flip, Cincy marches downfield to score etc. Maybe KC should have tried at the five-yard-line that Matt Nagy hook-and-ladder trick play that won the Chiefs the Super Bowl.

[JSngry]

Ok, go for the TD, risk a turnover. Shit happens. The FG was the "safe" choice. Maybe not the best one in retrospect, but who makes meaningful decisions in retrospect?

The only thing that matters is the final score and how it got there. It got there because Mahomes got picked in OT and the Bengals then capitalized. End of stpory, really.

Bad thinking goes rewarded when it doesn't produce bad results, and good thinking gets no credit when it produces bad results.

This is America, after all. The NFL no less!

[Larry Kart]

The final score? It got there because Mahones took a much chancier chance -- throwing a long pass to a double-covered Tyreek Hill  -- than almost any chance he would have/could have taken from the Cincy 5-yard-line at the end of regulation. Also, after. the interception the KC defense then failed to stop Cincy.

 

P.S, Didn't Mahones say afterwards that Tyreek usually catches that ball? As the color commentator -- was it Aikman?-- kept saying re: KC's play in the second half -- "Patience, Patience." When you're the better team -- and KC probably was -- you can get arrogant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

; KV I'm yjr droned la -- 

[sgcim]

I still can't believe they didn't go for the FG on 4th down. You've got the ball on the 5 yard line and you're going to give up the ball without putting on some points?

That late in the game? This isn't armchair, it's common sense.

[Steve Reynolds]

48 minutes ago, JSngry said:

Ok, go for the TD, risk a turnover. Shit happens. The FG was the "safe" choice. Maybe not the best one in retrospect, but who makes meaningful decisions in retrospect?

The only thing that matters is the final score and how it got there. It got there because Mahomes got picked in OT and the Bengals then capitalized. End of stpory, really.

Bad thinking goes rewarded when it doesn't produce bad results, and good thinking gets no credit when it produces bad results.

This is America, after all. The NFL no less!

Disagree. Mahomes was awful the whole second half. Under a hundred yards of offense. No reason to believe he drives the field in OT. No coach would play for the tie in regulation. 
 

plus as Larry mentioned, who knew they would win the coin toss?

[Dub Modal]

Bengals started dropping 8 back with a shadow on Mahomes in the 2nd half. Chiefs offense didn't/couldn't adjust. The lack of a quality rushing attack was definitely a weakness that got exposed. 

[JSngry]

1 hour ago, Steve Reynolds said:

Disagree. Mahomes was awful the whole second half. Under a hundred yards of offense. No reason to believe he drives the field in OT. No coach would play for the tie in regulation. 
 

plus as Larry mentioned, who knew they would win the coin toss?

Past performance/etc  might lead one to believe in the "he's done it before, he can do it again" dynamic. And he was moving the ball well on that first OT drive. Until he wasn't/

So, you either "believe" in the guy or you don't. And "belief" is a really imperfect basis on which to make a critical decision.

He's either a miracle man or else he's not. Believe the hype, after all, this is sports, right?

Nobody questions a bad decision that succeeds, that's the American way.

[Steve Reynolds]

2 incomplete passes then the pick on the OT drive 

no yardage in OT. Only decent drive of the second half was the last drive that led to the FG - and at the end of that drive Mahomes imploded

yes we question stuff even if it succeeds 

[JSngry]

2 hours ago, Steve Reynolds said:

yes we question stuff even if it succeeds 

Some do, most don't. This is America. We're all about gut instinct and all that.

Any idea what the betting lines were on any of this?

[jlhoots]

Glad I don't give a s**t who wins the "super bowl".

Now, on to college basketball. Anybody care???

[Ken Dryden]

I don't care about basketball, period...

I pretty much avoided the NFL all season, but have watched some of the playoff games. I can't believe how the Chiefs blew it at the end of the first half by not taking the sure points with the field goal as time expired. Their inexplicably poor play in the second half was just as puzzling. I'm sure that Reid and Mahomes will question their decisions during tthe next few months, but they will bounce back and have better days.

 

 

 

[jlhoots]

I don't think we've had a basketball thread here in a long time.

Edited February 1, 2022 by jlhoots

[Chuck Nessa]

1 hour ago, jlhoots said:

I don't think we've had a basketball thread here in a long time.

it just dribbled away.

[Michael]

22 hours ago, JSngry said:

Some do, most don't. This is America. We're all about gut instinct and all that.

Any idea what the betting lines were on any of this?

I think the Chiefs were favored by 7.

[JSngry]

Winstar is The Official Casino Of The Dallas Cowboys!

 

Btw, is there a football equivalent of Sabermetrics?