May COVID 19 Poll

[Dan Gould]

What say you?

[Matthew]

I live in a county that has been lightly touched by the virus (70 cases 2 deaths) and we're officially entering stage 2 today. We'll see what happens.

[Brad]

The way this country is handling it is, to use the question in the poll, a shit show. For comparison, see Germany and Canada. 

[jcam_44]

I do wonder what the anger is about wearing a mask. It is to just be defiant or is it just people privilege showing.

[jcam_44]

9 minutes ago, bresna said:

On question 3, i was going to go with shit show, but luckily at the state level, at least where I live, the management is pretty good. I am somewhat afraid that my governor may bow to the loonies and open too early, but she hasn't done that yet so I'm still not at "shit show" status yet.

I would agree with your analysis given I am fairly happy with how California has handled this, problem is more the national narrative is changing how people are approaching daily life.

[felser]

Clarifying two of my answers.  I have masks, haven't worn them because I have not gone out in public in almost two months.  When I do, I will look like the Lone Ranger ("Who was that masked man?").    I chose the middling answer on the last question because my county (Montgomery County, PA) has been totally outstanding, and our County Commissioner, Dr. Valerie Arkoosh, has even been interviewed on Rachel Maddow about our approach:  https://montco.today/2020/04/video-on-rachael-maddow-show-arkoosh-describes-the-hit-montgomery-countys-long-term-care-residents-and-staff-are-taking/ .  The Washington Post (think it was them, not NYT), published a study of stay-at-home rates by county in the USA, and we were at 97%, as high as any county in the USA from what I could see.  Pennsylvania State approach by Gov. Wolf has seemed totally reasonable to me also.  Much of the federal botched response, on the other hand, is terribly troubling, and I think the nightmare is already shifting from the coasts to the middle of the country.

 

[jcam_44]

25 minutes ago, bresna said:

Oh, I get it. I have seen many people walking around without masks. I've also witnessed several people getting way too close to others to somehow "make a point". I always wear a mask out shopping. I was in Home Depot buying some grass seed and I had a guy without a mask on purposefully walk directly in front of me and turn to look at me with this weird goofy grin. When I moved down the aisle, he followed me. I stepped closer to the items so he couldn't get in front of me again. It's getting stupid out there. Look at those sickos who shot a store security guard for telling them they needed a mask to shop there. Insane.

And again, at least in my area, the states heard about people refusing to wear masks so they mandated them. $1,000 fine if you don't wear one in an enclosed public space. States are still holding the line, no matter what is coming out of Washington DC but we don't want this to get political, so I'll stop there.

I actually need to go to home depot today. I hope I don't have an issue like that. Geez

[Tom in RI]

I wear a mask if I go somewhere that will bring me into contact with people. When my wife and I go for an afternoon walk I bring a mask but don’t generally put it on.

Here in a Rhode Island the state is beginning to allow more no-essential businesses to open starting tomorrow. I work as an independent agent servicing the Medicare population. I have an office but I will not be having client meetings there for the foreseeable future. Any 65 or older person who is willing to come to my office is probably not someone I want to come in. Insurers are already implementing processes that allow for remote enrollment. My busiest time of the year is from October 15 through December 7 (Medicare Annual Enrollment Period). That coincides with what is expected to also be a potential next wave of COVID-19 spread. I’ll be likely working remotely until there is a vaccine.

[mjazzg]

Interesting to read as mask use is slowly on the increase here but only slowly - I'd say about 20% of people I see out shopping. Still no official word on whether use of the is beneficial or not.  Most scientific advice over here seems to be that they are useful not for protection of the wearer but to protect others from the wearer who may be carrier.  I suspect most people wearing them here are actually doing it to protect themselves.

I expect some mandatory use will be introduced to coincide with any relaxation in public transport use. The Mayor of London is already saying a "non-medical face covering" should be used on buses and tubes.

[JSngry]

What is the actual science about masks in general? Is there a provable benefit to masking in general, or is it more a "can't hurt!" thing.

I know there's a certain type of mask that provides 2-way protection, but most people still don't have easy access to those. so what about all the other stuff? What's the provable there?

and yes, I wear them the few times I go inside anyplace (ONLINE ALL THE WAY!!!!), but not just to go outside in general.

I look at it like chicken soup - it won't hurt anything!

[Dan Gould]

The idea is protection of others, but mostly it's about squelching The virus replication rate. 

1918 flu was 1.8.

Goal is less than 1, which would eventually end transmission more or less. 80 percent wearing 60 percent effective masks gets you below R of 1.

It's the smartest thing any government at any level can do.

That it isn't happening from the top down in the US infuriates me.

[medjuck]

There's a video making the rounds in which Dr. Fauci   explains why civilians shouldn't wear masks.  But it was made at the time when they were trying to save masks for medical personal.  He keeps saying "right now".  Of course it's being used by all the Yahoos who think this is a hoax.  BTW Dan, I'd be curious to see the results of another  survey about how many friends have had it or died.  (Maybe you did one and I missed it.). 

[Dan Gould]

4 minutes ago, medjuck said:

There's a video making the rounds in which Dr. Fauci   explains why civilians shouldn't wear masks.  But it was made at the time when they were trying to save masks for medical personal.  He keeps saying "right now".  Of course it's being used by all the Yahoos who think this is a hoax.  BTW Dan, I'd be curious to see the results of another  survey about how many friends have had it or died.  (Maybe you did one and I missed it.). 

No, I thought I would move on to new topics this month but I too am curious about that. Maybe when I am back on the PC I will set it up.

[ejp626]

It has been a mixed message on masks from the top, all across the board, including the WHO.  But it does seem that wearing a mask helps cut down on transmission from those that already have it, and there is a growing consensus on this.  If masks become widespread it will help greatly, though granted it is not 100% immunity.

If they ever get these instant tests (and maybe home tests) actually working (there have been some setbacks) and widespread mask usage, then life will start to get back to normal (sort of), though probably still no mass sporting events or concerts until a proven vaccine comes along.  But I think most of us would accept that as a reasonable outcome in the meantime, compared to some of the alternatives.

[mjazzg]

12 minutes ago, JSngry said:

What is the actual science about masks in general? Is there a provable benefit to masking in general, or is it more a "can't hurt!" thing.

I know there's a certain type of mask that provides 2-way protection, but most people still don't have easy access to those. so what about all the other stuff? What's the provable there?

and yes, I wear them the few times I go inside anyplace (ONLINE ALL THE WAY!!!!), but not just to go outside in general.

I look at it like chicken soup - it won't hurt anything!

Not sure the chicken would agree...but I kind of agree with your approach otherwise

Just off the back of this conversation I've just looked up our current government position on masks, which is

" Face masks play a very important role in clinical settings, such as hospitals but there’s very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use outside of these clinical settings. Facemasks must be worn correctly, changed frequently, removed properly and disposed of safely in order to be effective. "

It would seem that it's the correct use of them that is the message here

[ejp626]

2 minutes ago, mjazzg said:

Just off the back of this conversation I've just looked up our current government position on masks, which is

" Face masks play a very important role in clinical settings, such as hospitals but there’s very little evidence of widespread benefit from their use outside of these clinical settings. Facemasks must be worn correctly, changed frequently, removed properly and disposed of safely in order to be effective. "

It would seem that it's the correct use of them that is the message here

I feel the UK is behind the curve on this (not really a surprise).  Sure, there is no point in making out that masks are a panacea, but my understanding is that they could be very important in cutting down transmission from asymptomatic people who don't even know they have the Covid -- and thus aren't self-isolating.  But it's true, the masks themselves won't do much to protect you if most people around you aren't wearing them...

[mjazzg]

1 minute ago, ejp626 said:

I feel the UK is behind the curve on this (not really a surprise).  Sure, there is no point in making out that masks are a panacea, but my understanding is that they could be very important in cutting down transmission from asymptomatic people who don't even know they have the Covid -- and thus aren't self-isolating.  But it's true, the masks themselves won't do much to protect you if most people around you aren't wearing them...

Sometimes I feel we're so far behind the curve we can't even see it yet...any further development of that thought will inevitably take me into political statements so I'll remain silent.

[David Ayers]

3 hours ago, jcam_44 said:

I do wonder what the anger is about wearing a mask. It is to just be defiant or is it just people privilege showing.

Personally I’m not angry - we just can’t find masks. Or hand sanitizer. Or spaghetti, come to that. 

[mjazzg]

1 minute ago, David Ayers said:

Personally I’m not angry - we just can’t find masks. Or hand sanitizer. Or spaghetti, come to that. 

Ahem...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=face+masks&ref=nb_sb_noss

[catesta]

Do any of you actually give nasty looks to those that are not wearing masks?

 

[David Ayers]

51 minutes ago, mjazzg said:

Ahem...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=face+masks&ref=nb_sb_noss

Ohhhhhh. I’m not biting. More remainer propaganda.  😉

 

Any leads on spaghetti?

[Dan Gould]

2 hours ago, JSngry said:

What is the actual science about masks in general? Is there a provable benefit to masking in general, or is it more a "can't hurt!" thing.

I know there's a certain type of mask that provides 2-way protection, but most people still don't have easy access to those. so what about all the other stuff? What's the provable there?

and yes, I wear them the few times I go inside anyplace (ONLINE ALL THE WAY!!!!), but not just to go outside in general.

I look at it like chicken soup - it won't hurt anything!

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/dont-wear-mask-yourself/610336/

 

To better understand what level of mask-wearing we need in the population to get this pandemic under control, we assembled a transdisciplinary team of 19 experts and looked at a range of mathematical models and other research to learn what would happen if most people wore a mask in public. We wrote and submitted an academic paper as well as a layperson’s summary. Every infectious disease has a reproduction rate, called R. When it’s 1.0, that means the average infected person infects one other person. The 1918 pandemic flu had an R of 1.8—so one infected person infected, on average, almost two others. COVID-19’s rate, in the absence of measures such as social distancing and masks, is at least 2.4. A disease dies out if its R falls under 1.0. The lower the number, the faster it dies out.

 

The effectiveness of mask-wearing depends on three things: the basic reproduction number, R₀, of the virus in a community; masks’ efficacy at blocking transmission; and the percentage of people wearing masks. The blue area of the graph below indicates an R₀ below 1.0, the magic number needed to make the disease die out.

Read: A new statistic reveals why America’s COVID-19 numbers are flat

Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R₀ of less than one. That’s enough to halt the spread of the disease.

 

 

[JSngry]

51 minutes ago, catesta said:

Do any of you actually give nasty looks to those that are not wearing masks?

 

I'm not going out enough or up close enough to do that, but the last time I did, I wanted to do that to a few people, especially the lady who was hacking her way out the door at the Target with her little girl giving her an unmistakeable MOMMY?!?!? WTF???? look.

Other than a kind of assholey attitudinal disposition, though, I see no real reason NOT to wear one when you're around other people, especially indoors. I mean, no matter what you think the "real" infection rate is, it's just a common courtesy right now, imo. Simple as that.

We had a few guys come out to give us estimates on fence repairs. One guy did not have a mask and rolled his eyes when we gave him one to put on. The other guy put one on before he even knocked on the door. Who do you think is getting the business? Respect for your customer, not assuming anything other than you don't want your customer thinking that they don't give a rats' ass about you - a total stranger -not respecting their property and all that comes with that?

Common courtesy, really. Even if you think it's total bullshit, not everybody does, and again, right now, what does it hurt?

...and I know one motherfucker who ain't getting hired because of that lack of courtesy.

[BillF]

5 hours ago, jcam_44 said:

I do wonder what the anger is about wearing a mask. It is to just be defiant or is it just people privilege showing.

Who are all these people I see around nowadays?

They can't all be robbing banks, can they?

[mjazzg]

1 hour ago, David Ayers said:

Ohhhhhh. I’m not biting. More remainer propaganda.  😉

 

Any leads on spaghetti?

Remainer, remoaner...

Waitrose recently had the long spaghetti in Harpenden. My local Turkish supermarket in North London has plenty of the short...you just need to be in the right place I guess...fariners innit

Edited May 8, 2020 by mjazzg