COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

[jazzbo]

Yes, maybe we should. I feel for my brother-in-law. After successfully battling lymphoma fourteen years ago it came back, and he has to be so careful that he practically shouldn't leave the house. Even fully vaccinated and boosted his system produces so few antigens and antibodies that he is very vulnerable. I'd love to see he and my sister this holiday season but I may not be possible. This pandemic can be very hard on families.

[Chuck Nessa]

5 hours ago, jlhoots said:

If you're not careful (whatever that means), you could have problems. We've had 2 1/2 Moderna shots. We'll do whatever it takes to try to be safe.

This is where I am. Had my yearly physical with my doctor and he said he was 3 shots Pfiser and envied my situation. Masks wherever - for me or everyone else. Pain in the ass but better than doom.

[Guy Berger]

17 hours ago, jazzbo said:

Yes, maybe we should. I feel for my brother-in-law. After successfully battling lymphoma fourteen years ago it came back, and he has to be so careful that he practically shouldn't leave the house. Even fully vaccinated and boosted his system produces so few antigens and antibodies that he is very vulnerable. I'd love to see he and my sister this holiday season but I may not be possible. This pandemic can be very hard on families.

It's expensive here in the US, but frequent rapid testing is an underrated risk minimization tactic that can make indoor family/friend gatherings much safer.  If you can afford it, consider it!

Also, I know it is not practical in large parts of the country during the winter, but meeting outdoors (even if briefly) is far safer than indoors.

IMHO seeing family and friends is really important; we have many ways to reduce the risk to nearly nil, we should encourage people "do this with appropriate precautions" rather than "don't do this".

Edited December 16, 2021 by Guy Berger

[jazzbo]

I know that testing is a good method and that outdoors is better than indoors. All this is however up to my sister and her husband who have been navigating this as best as they can for the last few years and surprisingly they have decided to come here from Virginia mostly to see my Dad in hospice this weekend and my wife and my two brothers and their wives may be able to get an outdoor brief rendezvous together. . . that's still up in the air. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by jazzbo

[Milestones]

It seems like nothing but doom and gloom of late.  Variants, surges, the whole works. Will this MOFO every slow down?

Our football team has about 14 players out due to Covid, including the QB and backup QB.  Also, the head coach, Stefanski (his second time). Geez.

 

[Steve Reynolds]

On 12/15/2021 at 5:27 PM, Guy Berger said:

I would not ignore the impact of high quality immunity (3 shots or hybrid) in reducing transmission, even if imperfect.

But you're right about the general assessment: whether due to "inherent" transmissibility or immune evasion, it's likely to infect a lot more people than prior variants in the same circumstances.

Thinking a little further ahead: an estimate from Trevor Bedford (a well regarded virologist or immunologist - don't remember which) was that once we reach endemicity, we'd have something like 40K-100K COVID deaths every year in the US.  The bright side is that's a lot less than 2020 or 2021, and hopefully we can get there relatively quickly.

The bad news is: it's equivalent to ranging from "moderate flu year" to "very bad flu year", on top of the actual flu of course (which kills an average of 36K Americans every year).  We're not going to zero or anything close to it.

And the VAST majority of those deaths will continue to be unvaccinated people. Or very old or immunocompromised. We will know within 7-10 days based on England’s situation of Omicron is indeed 75 to 90% less dangerous than delta which is what the most hopeful data indicates on what we know right now. 

[sidewinder]

Omnicron much more infectious than delta though. Hopefully the vaccinations and boosters will provide the safeguard that we didn’t have 12 months ago. I’m hearing that parts of London have around 40% of the population unvaccinated though, which is worrying, albeit not typical of the country at large.

[mjazzg]

21 minutes ago, Steve Reynolds said:

And the VAST majority of those deaths will continue to be unvaccinated people. Or very old or immunocompromised. We will know within 7-10 days based on England’s situation of Omicron is indeed 75 to 90% less dangerous than delta which is what the most hopeful data indicates on what we know right now. 

I'm not sure Omicron has been with us long enough to assess the severity just yet, experts are saying two weeks more at least. By then the transmission will have passed to the more vulnerable. The other issue they are concerned about is the sheer number of potential hospitalisations, maybe not of the severity of previous strains but I'll enough to need hospital care. The mayor of London has just declared a "major incident" because of pressure on the hospital's, already.

Experience in South Africa is hopeful but their population differs greatly in age profile, natural immunity and vulnerability.

[Steve Reynolds]

23 minutes ago, mjazzg said:

I'm not sure Omicron has been with us long enough to assess the severity just yet, experts are saying two weeks more at least. By then the transmission will have passed to the more vulnerable. The other issue they are concerned about is the sheer number of potential hospitalisations, maybe not of the severity of previous strains but I'll enough to need hospital care. The mayor of London has just declared a "major incident" because of pressure on the hospital's, already.

Experience in South Africa is hopeful but their population differs greatly in age profile, natural immunity and vulnerability.

All understood. Hopeful that getting omicron creates some immunity versus delta. Most experts believe it will. I do believe there is more evidence than not that omicron on an individual basis is much less dangerous than previous strains. The obvious issue will be the massive amount of cases that will happen worldwide over the next few months. Big hope/dream is the long awaited turn towards herd immunity/endemic result.

[JSngry]

Take this fwiw:

Don’t Be Surprised When You Get Omicron

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/omicron-breakthrough-vaccine-testing/621014/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

The company I work for (based in Massachusetts) sent out a note asking those of us who can do their job from home to do so until "the middle of January at the earliest".

I am still unsure what that means to me as there are things I can do from home but supervising 5 people who go in every day is hard to do remote 100% of the time. I am a bit lucky in that they don't need a lot of hand holding but I still like to be there for them when they need me.

I am so sick of this shit.

Edited December 20, 2021 by bresna

[Pim]

We’re back in a full lockdown here in the Netherlands. Still waiting for someone to admit that the vaccinations do not work as they had supposed to do… I took both shots for I was thinking it was the right thing to do. It probably was anyway but I am very disappointed about the whole situation right now.

What worries me more are the rising tensions and polarization here. On one side we got a government that tries to make a vaccin mandatory… really guys mandatory? I’m all for vaccinations but making it mandatory violates the most basic human rights.

there isn’t any logic in coming policy too. Plan is to give vaccinated people access to everything and to ban the unvaccinated from everything. That means that I as a vaccinated, could visit a restaurant with a fever, cough and running nose. A colleague of mine is unvaccinated: she needs to get tested first every time she wants to do something. So in this time, her visit gives the smallest risk. I could easily contaminate some people there because vaccinated people could still easily contaminate others. 
 

So who’s in the critical camp then? It’s the people that believe Bill Gates tries to get a chip in our system to meltdown our brains during the reset. And let’s not forget the network of pedophiles that are drinking baby blood….

Where is the moderate sound? It like you’re either pro vaccination or against it. Like you’re always have to be pro migration or against it. Pro environmental policy or against it. Mostly the truth is somewhere in the middle. I miss that sound from the middle very much. 
 

really guys, it’s like the worlds gone crazy. I am really worried about the future of my two boys

[Dan Gould]

Moderna says booster increases anti-bodies for Omicron 37x.

I'd provide a link but that was in my Boston Globe news email and I don't subscribe.

[OliverM]

Pim, good luck with the lockdown. Vaccination, including boosters still seems like the best that can be done to prevent from serious illness. The policy evolution you mention is the same that's happening in France, and there are already 11 mandatory vaccines here, so I find it perfectly ok.

[jlhoots]

1 hour ago, Dan Gould said:

Moderna says booster increases anti-bodies for Omicron 37x.

I'd provide a link but that was in my Boston Globe news email and I don't subscribe.

Moderna announced Monday that a booster shot of its COVID-19 vaccine significantly increases antibody levels against the highly-transmissible Omicron variant.

A 50 microgram jab — the authorized dose for a third shot — saw a 37-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies, the vaccine maker said.

Moderna also tested a 100 microgram booster dose, which increased antibody levels 83-fold. The first two shots of Moderna’s vaccine are both 100 micrograms.

The company said the higher booster dose was generally safe and well-tolerated, although there was a trend toward slightly more frequent adverse reactions.

Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel called the data “reassuring” but said it will continue to “rapidly advance an omicron-specific booster candidate into clinical testing in case it becomes necessary in the future.”

[Larry Kart]

9 hours ago, Pim said:

We’re back in a full lockdown here in the Netherlands. Still waiting for someone to admit that the vaccinations do not work as they had supposed to do… I took both shots for I was thinking it was the right thing to do. It probably was anyway but I am very disappointed about the whole situation right now.

What worries me more are the rising tensions and polarization here. On one side we got a government that tries to make a vaccin mandatory… really guys mandatory? I’m all for vaccinations but making it mandatory violates the most basic human rights.

there isn’t any logic in coming policy too. Plan is to give vaccinated people access to everything and to ban the unvaccinated from everything. That means that I as a vaccinated, could visit a restaurant with a fever, cough and running nose. A colleague of mine is unvaccinated: she needs to get tested first every time she wants to do something. So in this time, her visit gives the smallest risk. I could easily contaminate some people there because vaccinated people could still easily contaminate others. 
 

So who’s in the critical camp then? It’s the people that believe Bill Gates tries to get a chip in our system to meltdown our brains during the reset. And let’s not forget the network of pedophiles that are drinking baby blood….

Where is the moderate sound? It like you’re either pro vaccination or against it. Like you’re always have to be pro migration or against it. Pro environmental policy or against it. Mostly the truth is somewhere in the middle. I miss that sound from the middle very much. 
 

really guys, it’s like the worlds gone crazy. I am really worried about the future of my two boys

You do understand that unvaccinated people are a significant threat to the health of the rest of the population. The virus doesn't care about your privacy, liberty, etc. it just wants to proliferate. So if the government exists in part to protect the well-being of the population, it shouldn't take the one act, make vaccinations and mask wearing mandatory, that is at present the best and only step toward that goal? What "middle" is there here, especially when the loss or injury of getting vaccinated is nada by and large.

[mjazzg]

22 minutes ago, Larry Kart said:

You do understand that unvaccinated people are a significant threat to the health of the rest of the population. The virus doesn't care about your privacy, liberty, etc. it just wants to proliferate. So if the government exists in part to protect the well-being of the population, it shouldn't take the one act, make vaccinations and mask wearing mandatory, that is at present the best and only step toward that goal? What "middle" is there here, especially when the loss or injury of getting vaccinated is nada by and large.

Yes, there isn't a middle ground here that I can see.

In the UK there's lots of hot air about liberty being infringed when it comes to showing either vaccination status or negative test proof to enter large venues.  I just want to to ask the more swivel-eyed of our MPs (one of whom thought it appropriate to compare this introduction to living in Nazi Germany, ffs) whether they ever object to their liberty being infringed by having to have a driving licence to prove eligibility to drive on our roads. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by mjazzg

[Steve Reynolds]

2 hours ago, mjazzg said:

Yes, there isn't a middle ground here that I can see.

In the UK there's lots of hot air about liberty being infringed when it comes to showing either vaccination status or negative test proof to enter large venues.  I just want to to ask the more swivel-eyed of our MPs (one of whom thought it appropriate to compare this introduction to living in Nazi Germany, ffs) whether they ever object to their liberty being infringed by having to have a driving licence to prove eligibility to drive on our roads. 

The only overreach is asking young children (5-11) to be vaccinated to enter public places. Especially since the vaccine for those young children isn’t even fully approved yet. And even though it does reduce spread it isn’t clear how much - and children of that age are not that susceptible in any significant way to serious illness  
 

everything else is common sense - and this is from someone who is no liberal. I’m all for freedom but public health supersedes it. But lockdowns when vaccines almost eliminate any chance of serious illness or death is another kind of insanity. So there is a middle ground. 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

1 hour ago, Steve Reynolds said:

The only overreach is asking young children (5-11) to be vaccinated to enter public places. Especially since the vaccine for those young children isn’t even fully approved yet. And even though it does reduce spread it isn’t clear how much - and children of that age are not that susceptible in any significant way to serious illness

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm?s_cid=mm7036e2_w

" Among 3,116 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during March 1, 2020–June 19, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,827 (26.5%) were admitted to an ICU, 190 (6.1%) required IMV (a respirator was needed), and 21 (0.7%) died. Among 164 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during June 20–July 31, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,38 (23.2%) were admitted to an ICU, 16 (9.8%) required IMV, and three (1.8%) died.

I would say that if you were the parent of one of those 24 children that died of Covid, you would not say this.

[Steve Reynolds]

26 minutes ago, bresna said:

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm?s_cid=mm7036e2_w

" Among 3,116 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during March 1, 2020–June 19, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,827 (26.5%) were admitted to an ICU, 190 (6.1%) required IMV (a respirator was needed), and 21 (0.7%) died. Among 164 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during June 20–July 31, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,38 (23.2%) were admitted to an ICU, 16 (9.8%) required IMV, and three (1.8%) died.

I would say that if you were the parent of one of those 24 children that died of Covid, you would not say this.

Kevin - there are so many more activities that are more dangerous than Covid is to children - 24 deaths over a 16 month plus period is a tiny number. Swimming is exponentially more dangerous. So is putting a child in a driving car. There is no middle ground if this is the response to my thoughtful post. I think the data you shared proved a point.

[Dan Gould]

27 minutes ago, bresna said:

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7036e2.htm?s_cid=mm7036e2_w

" Among 3,116 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during March 1, 2020–June 19, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,827 (26.5%) were admitted to an ICU, 190 (6.1%) required IMV (a respirator was needed), and 21 (0.7%) died. Among 164 hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19 during June 20–July 31, 2021, for whom complete clinical data were available,38 (23.2%) were admitted to an ICU, 16 (9.8%) required IMV, and three (1.8%) died.

I would say that if you were the parent of one of those 24 children that died of Covid, you would not say this.

Nothing you have shared Kevin remotely contradicts what Steve R. stated. That's a death rate of .007.

If you think that the only acceptable death toll for kids is zero, then try to figure out how to make it so. Rational people aren't that likely to agree with you, though, considering the social and educational costs for remote schooling, or rational hesitancy to not agree to vaccinations for  children not that susceptible in any significant way to serious illness.

[JSngry]

Pediatric ICU is nothing to laugh about, though.

A friend of my grandaughter spent two weeks in one/. That sucked for all involved. Fortunately my granddaughter was nearly asymptomatic, as were the other kids at the preschool. But that's one of those things where you don't know until you get there, and who wants to get there to find out? 26.5 %, only 1 in 4, but whose kid is going to be that one? Whose kid needs to be that 1?

I'm not really crazy about the vaccinate all the babies thing, but neither am I thinking that kids can't get it, and if they do, hey, big deal. Statistics are one thing, specific realities quite another.

In everything, a risk. All I know for sure is that per her parents, my granddaughter gets a shot for her 5th birthday present.

Well, not just a shot, THAT'S not anyway to treat a kid on their birthday. Extra ice cream afterwards, on granddad!

[jlhoots]

Sarah Palin said she'd rather die than get a shot. Be careful what you wish for. 

[T.D.]

OT, but to those who have done business with importcds: if you look at the address on your receipt / return slip, it's 300 Omicron Ct., Shepherdsville, KY,!

(I had to return a couple of items recently.)

[Pim]

21 hours ago, Larry Kart said:

You do understand that unvaccinated people are a significant threat to the health of the rest of the population. The virus doesn't care about your privacy, liberty, etc. it just wants to proliferate. So if the government exists in part to protect the well-being of the population, it shouldn't take the one act, make vaccinations and mask wearing mandatory, that is at present the best and only step toward that goal? What "middle" is there here, especially when the loss or injury of getting vaccinated is nada by and large.

Sorry Larry but I disagree on that. The real danger and problem that caused our rising numbers of contaminations were vaccinated people visiting the restaurants, museums and parties with the false idea that they would be safe. They didn't have to hold distance to each other: they were free to do whatever they liked to do. That is exactly the problem with the vaccinated people only police: they are still able to spread the virus and contaminate people and therefore bring others in a dangerous situation. In fact: at least the unvaccinated people had to test themselves before entering such locations and their presence was of less danger. Hello! I am vaccinated but everybody could understand this system is unjust and not right. The vaccinated only people policy is meant to force people to take the vaccin. If that's what you want to accomplish, you should be transparent about it.

 

On 20-12-2021 at 2:30 PM, OliverM said:

Pim, good luck with the lockdown. Vaccination, including boosters still seems like the best that can be done to prevent from serious illness. The policy evolution you mention is the same that's happening in France, and there are already 11 mandatory vaccines here, so I find it perfectly ok.

It seems not unfortunately and I do not see why it is so hard to admit. Today the head figure of our National Health Service announced that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccins are 5x less resistant to the new Omrikon variant. A booster vaccin would get it up to maybe 60% but only for a short while. This would mean you have to booster again after 2 months. The same sounds are coming from Israel now where they are planning for a 4th injection which is probably going to be even less resistant. Half november, half of the people on our intensive care units were vaccinated. This is data from our National Health Service. They stopped publishing that data ever since.... I know a lot of people who were double vaccinated and still got very, very ill including two of my co workers. 2 of those people were even hospitalized. Almost 90 percent (again data from our government) of the adult population are fully vaccinated here in the Netherlands. Yet contaminations are sky high and so are the hospitalizations. They are so high we need to go in lockdown again. 

All these statistical facts are enough to seriously doubt the effectivity of the vaccins or the boosters. I fully agree that it still is the best way to prevent from serious ilness: I am glad my 70+ mom and dad both got their boosters and hope everyone with a vulnerable health does. But the arguments for a 30 year old healthy guy like myself are getting smaller and smaller. I mostly took my vaccinations to be less contaminatious and to end this crisis. It prooved to not work for both of these arguments. 

The mandatory vaccins you are refering to (polio, tetanus etc.) have prooved to be 1. effective, 2. safe 3. give livelong protection and beneftis. If the COVID vaccins were like this, I'd might be pro-mandatory. But they are not. They are actually far from that. And in such a case it's not always wrong to be a little critical. I have a healthy trust that the vaccines are probably not harmful and results up to now fortunately show nothing serious. But lots of things are also uncertain and we are still in the experimental phase. It's my body and more important my health: so may I please have the right to worry about what I am putting in it? Or better: in my childrens bodies? Again: if vaccins were the definite way out of this crisis I took the shot right away. But the harsh message people do not want to hear is: they are not...

21 hours ago, mjazzg said:

Yes, there isn't a middle ground here that I can see.

In the UK there's lots of hot air about liberty being infringed when it comes to showing either vaccination status or negative test proof to enter large venues.  I just want to to ask the more swivel-eyed of our MPs (one of whom thought it appropriate to compare this introduction to living in Nazi Germany, ffs) whether they ever object to their liberty being infringed by having to have a driving licence to prove eligibility to drive on our roads. 

They are making those nazi-Germany comparisons here too. It's digusting. They have no idea what they are talking about. What I hope everyone could see here is that I am not a conspiracy loony or something. I am not using data from Breitbart or weird conspiricary blogs. I am using the same data as the Dutch government does. In that way I try to explain why I am doubting the current vaccination program and oppose mandatory vaccines under current circumstances. But you can't say one critical thing on government policy these days without being placed in the loonatic camp. That is what I mean with the missing middle ground: the people I work with, my family and friends are taking the crisis very serious. They are all double vaccinated and so am I. We have all followed government instructions about what to do and what not to do. But they are also skeptical about the current vaccination policies. I miss that moderate critical sound in the media very, very much. It's either you are with us or against us but its not that easy.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Pim