COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

[Rooster_Ties]

Verbatim headline from a local TV-news on-line story.

Michigan security guard shot and killed after asking Family Dollar shopper to wear a mask

> FLINT, Mich. (FOX 2) - The Genessee County Prosecutor's office said Monday afternoon that a Flint Family Dollar security guard who was killed on Friday was shot following a dispute with a customer who would not put on a mask in the store.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Rooster_Ties

[catesta]

Still no suspect(s) caught.

[Guy Berger]

23 hours ago, ghost of miles said:

More indications that the “widely-cited” IHME model, which on April 29 projected 72,000 U.S. deaths by August 4 (as of this moment we’re at 68,126) is all but irrelevant:

U.S. could hit 100,000 deaths before end of May

If you do the math and assume that deaths average "just" 1K per day for the rest of 2020 (much below the current run rate), you end up with a really sobering number of deaths by year end.  And given reopening happening in a really hasty and premature way, that seems like an optimistic estimate.

[felser]

BREAKING NEWS

The Trump administration is privately projecting daily coronavirus deaths to nearly double by June 1, even as it presses states to reopen.

Monday, May 4, 2020 11:42 AM EST

The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 3,000 daily deaths, and 200,000 new cases each day by the end of this month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

[Guy Berger]

Devastating.

 

[Dan Gould]

I was going to post what Felser did ... this suggests:

1. Social Distancing isn't strong enough or is not effective for some reason;

2. We're turning it off too soon, and there's no basis for re-opening if these are the actual predictions even as we start to re-open.  Do these predictions anticipate big spikes in cases and deaths?

3. Its time for a sprint to herd immunity.  Even as I know that this could swamp the medical system. We can't lock down tighter and maintain it for months on end. Might as well give in to the inevitable.

[David Ayers]

2 hours ago, Jim Duckworth said:

  I will probably have to fall back on a career that utlizes my arcane knowledge of jazz and my proclivity to criticize my superiors.

We all have a career like that here on the board 😉

[JSngry]

13 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

I was going to post what Felser did ... this suggests:

1. Social Distancing isn't strong enough or is not effective for some reason;

Can't speak for any other places, but in these parts (such as I've seen them), there's been a rather noticeable...inconsistency in how social distancing is being practiced among the general population.

[Larry Kart]

My broker at J.P. Morgan Chase told me today that their estimate is that of the retail outlets (stores, restaurants, etc.) that are closed after four months, 60% will never open their doors again.

[jlhoots]

2 hours ago, JSngry said:

I smell Death Panels!!!!!

My dear departed skeptical mother always said "they" want to practice euthanasia on old people.

[Rooster_Ties]

In areas with serious social distancing, it clearly has an enormous benefit, with demonstrable results. Witness San Francisco and much (most?) of California, from the reports I’ve been seeing.  Of course, if they “let up” to any significant degree, then they’d be on a trajectory toward NYC-like numbers within a fortnight or two.

A rush to herd immunity sounds great (or the herd immunity part does, at least). But the cost in lives lost - not only to those at high risk, but also to doctors and nurses, to say nothing of mass transit workers, and those who work in high-traffic areas with jobs that disallow much social distancing (meat packers, for instance) - would be tragic.

To compare some of those people to “cannon fodder” isn’t hyperbolic (if we opened up completely). But seriously, are we really OK with half the number of casualties in those areas - i.e. “half cannon-fodder” - if we “only half” open-up? Because that seems to be what the plan is.

Who the hell am I to say that the world (or the US at least) has to get back to normal, come hell or high water... ...when I know full well I’m able to live a relatively privileged life that allows me to avoid the kinds of risk that hundreds of thousands (maybe 1-2 million!) OTHER PEOPLE cannot so easily avoid. Those figures (hundreds of thousands up to 1-2 million... being the potential number of casualties we’re looking at in the US alone, under different prediction models, depending on how quickly we open up, and how.

All this is all an enormous and genuinely serious inconvenience to probably HALF of us. And the economic impact to the OTHER HALF of us is even more severe, requiring not just stimulus, but a shit-ton direct financial help that isn’t suppose to “stimulate” anything, but just keep people afloat.

And then like 2-4% of us - when you include all the people dying of heart attacks and strokes (some Covid-related, some not, but who aren’t going to the hospitals), and cancer patients who can’t get treatment, etc. - along with all the direct Covid deaths...  ...so something like 2-4% of us will die if we just open everything up to try and race for herd immunity.

Maybe my percentages aren’t right, but my point is basically the same regardless.

The death toll is still rising in the US, and we’re talking about getting back to a new semi-open “normal” (somehow) in a few short weeks - still without adequate testing (and not even close).

Social distancing was never a “solution” - but rather, a way to buy time to implement other solutions, some which have long lead-times. But the federal government squandered a couple months, and did nothing - at least for all of February, and arguably part of March too.

Forget developing a vaccine even, the idea was to ramp up TESTING - which this administration STILL is dragging its feet on. And PPE, which the fucking federal government is confiscating(!) from states and even from the V.A. - literally STEALING shipments before states and the V.A. even get them! - only to seemingly to dump then into a supply chain that goes to the highest bidder (states bidding against each other, and the federal government too). It’s beyond dystopian, and frankly unfathomable.

Anyway, I’m all in favor of continuing social distancing, but fuck if know what good that does it with parts of the federal response being so woefully inadequate (which is the most polite (non-political) way I can possibly say it). And so much of this seems to go way beyond “neglect” and “incompetence” in some cases (again, something I’m trying to say politely).

It boggles the mind.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Rooster_Ties

[jlhoots]

1 hour ago, Dan Gould said:

I was going to post what Felser did ... this suggests:

1. Social Distancing isn't strong enough or is not effective for some reason;

2. We're turning it off too soon, and there's no basis for re-opening if these are the actual predictions even as we start to re-open.  Do these predictions anticipate big spikes in cases and deaths?

3. Its time for a sprint to herd immunity.  Even as I know that this could swamp the medical system. We can't lock down tighter and maintain it for months on end. Might as well give in to the inevitable.

#2 - if I understand your options. 

[medjuck]

1 hour ago, Dan Gould said:

I was going to post what Felser did ... this suggests:

1. Social Distancing isn't strong enough or is not effective for some reason;

2. We're turning it off too soon, and there's no basis for re-opening if these are the actual predictions even as we start to re-open.  Do these predictions anticipate big spikes in cases and deaths?

3. Its time for a sprint to herd immunity.  Even as I know that this could swamp the medical system. We can't lock down tighter and maintain it for months on end. Might as well give in to the inevitable.

Are we (they) sure herd immunity even works with this virus?  i.e. Isn't there some doubt that you can't get it twice? 

[Jason Bivins]

What Rooster_Ties said, every last letter of it.

Meanwhile, from the Netherlands comes a bit of good news:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/scientists-create-antibody-that-defeats-coronavirus-in-lab?srnd=premium

[JSngry]

1 hour ago, jlhoots said:

My dear departed skeptical mother always said "they" want to practice euthanasia on old people.

I celebrate my still-present sense of smell as a positive indicator that I have yet to be infected by this most anti-odiferous of bio-social phenomenon, the CA-RAZEEEE CORONABUG.

[ghost of miles]

3 Hospital Workers Gave Out Masks. Weeks Later, They All Were Dead.

[ejp626]

5 hours ago, Brad said:

Expect to see a ramping up in age discrimination suits. 

Well yes and no.  No question there will be a huge number of said suits, particularly in the States.  But I'm not sure if they will actually succeed, as there is a legitimate cause for age discrimination in the general sense and I also expect there to be some federal directives that try to insulate employers from said suits.  Now whether the House will go along is questionable, but a lot of unthinkable stuff has been happening over the past few months.

1 hour ago, medjuck said:

Are we (they) sure herd immunity even works with this virus?  i.e. Isn't there some doubt that you can't get it twice? 

The science is unclear, though the lastest reports I read suggest that the people who "caught it twice" actually were false positives in that traces of the virus hadn't quite been flushed out of the system.  If true, then that is actually a positive development for once.

[catesta]

2 hours ago, Rooster_Ties said:

In areas with serious social distancing, it clearly has an enormous benefit, with demonstrable results. Witness San Francisco and much (most?) of California, from the reports I’ve been seeing.  Of course, if they “let up” to any significant degree, then they’d be on a trajectory toward NYC-like numbers within a fortnight or two.

A rush to herd immunity sounds great (or the herd immunity part does, at least). But the cost in lives lost - not only to those at high risk, but also to doctors and nurses, to say nothing of mass transit workers, and those who work in high-traffic areas with jobs that disallow much social distancing (meat packers, for instance) - would be tragic.

To compare some of those people to “cannon fodder” isn’t hyperbolic (if we opened up completely). But seriously, are we really OK with half the number of casualties in those areas - i.e. “half cannon-fodder” - if we “only half” open-up? Because that seems to be what the plan is.

Who the hell am I to say that the world (or the US at least) has to get back to normal, come hell or high water... ...when I know full well I’m able to live a relatively privileged life that allows me to avoid the kinds of risk that hundreds of thousands (maybe 1-2 million!) OTHER PEOPLE cannot so easily avoid. Those figures (hundreds of thousands up to 1-2 million... being the potential number of casualties we’re looking at in the US alone, under different prediction models, depending on how quickly we open up, and how.

All this is all an enormous and genuinely serious inconvenience to probably HALF of us. And the economic impact to the OTHER HALF of us is even more severe, requiring not just stimulus, but a shit-ton direct financial help that isn’t suppose to “stimulate” anything, but just keep people afloat.

And then like 2-4% of us - when you include all the people dying of heart attacks and strokes (some Covid-related, some not, but who aren’t going to the hospitals), and cancer patients who can’t get treatment, etc. - along with all the direct Covid deaths...  ...so something like 2-4% of us will die if we just open everything up to try and race for herd immunity.

Maybe my percentages aren’t right, but my point is basically the same regardless.

The death toll is still rising in the US, and we’re talking about getting back to a new semi-open “normal” (somehow) in a few short weeks - still without adequate testing (and not even close).

Social distancing was never a “solution” - but rather, a way to buy time to implement other solutions, some which have long lead-times. But the federal government squandered a couple months, and did nothing - at least for all of February, and arguably part of March too.

Forget developing a vaccine even, the idea was to ramp up TESTING - which this administration STILL is dragging its feet on. And PPE, which the fucking federal government is confiscating(!) from states and even from the V.A. - literally STEALING shipments before states and the V.A. even get them! - only to seemingly to dump then into a supply chain that goes to the highest bidder (states bidding against each other, and the federal government too). It’s beyond dystopian, and frankly unfathomable.

Anyway, I’m all in favor of continuing social distancing, but fuck if know what good that does it with parts of the federal response being so woefully inadequate (which is the most polite (non-political) way I can possibly say it). And so much of this seems to go way beyond “neglect” and “incompetence” in some cases (again, something I’m trying to say politely).

It boggles the mind.

One could make the argument agencies at all levels did the the best they could with what was known early on and reports from a multitude of sources including the World Health Organization.

I'd invite you to go back to quotes coming out of the NYC administration until just around the middle of March. Same with the NY state administration, although maybe a little earlier in March.

In fact, let's be real, how much did anybody know or do in those first "squandered" months? China was not being very forthcoming with information, that we know.

There was an article in the Atlantic in which Epidemiologists said the China travel restrictions certainly helped California, but the delay in doing the same with Europe likely hurt New York. There was a lot of negative talk about those travel restrictions, but in fact it was the right thing to do.

We see the data, challenge the data, praise the data, fear the data, data gets revised, up, down, up again...., and every day we hear there is so much we have to learn, heat kills it, heat doesn't kill it, masks, no masks, only certain kinds of masks. That is is science, no?

Meanwhile,for you and others, it is the response out of this administration, that is mind boggling to you. For me, it's all fucking mind boggling!

With the exception of a couple of days which was related to network issues, I haven't worked from home since this started. I'm not afraid to go out, yes, maybe I am a moron, but we have to trust most people will do the right thing when they return to work and open their businesses. I've done what I can to protect my family, employees and myself and will continue to do so. Next step for me would be to close down and I can't do it. My days are ridiculously long now because people don't answer phones, respond to emails, meetings are scheduled around bullshit and everything moves so fucking slow. That's my personal problem with the current way things are going. I'm just flat out tired, so is my wife and the people around me.

So, if social distancing needs to continue, by all means keep that tape on the floor, don't cough in people's faces, and don't forget to wash your hands but allow restaurants, bars, retail, barber shops, etc., the opportunity to chose and prove they can phase in, slowly and responsibly. Forcing the doors to remain closed is just fucking wrong. 

 

[jlhoots]

25 minutes ago, catesta said:

One could make the argument agencies at all levels did the the best they could with what was known early on and reports from a multitude of sources including the World Health Organization.

I'd invite you to go back to quotes coming out of the NYC administration until just around the middle of March. Same with the NY state administration, although maybe a little earlier in March.

In fact, let's be real, how much did anybody know or do in those first "squandered" months? China was not being very forthcoming with information, that we know.

There was an article in the Atlantic in which Epidemiologists said the China travel restrictions certainly helped California, but the delay in doing the same with Europe likely hurt New York. There was a lot of negative talk about those travel restrictions, but in fact it was the right thing to do.

We see the data, challenge the data, praise the data, fear the data, data gets revised, up, down, up again...., and every day we hear there is so much we have to learn, heat kills it, heat doesn't kill it, masks, no masks, only certain kinds of masks. That is is science, no?

Meanwhile,for you and others, it is the response out of this administration, that is mind boggling to you. For me, it's all fucking mind boggling!

With the exception of a couple of days which was related to network issues, I haven't worked from home since this started. I'm not afraid to go out, yes, maybe I am a moron, but we have to trust most people will do the right thing when they return to work and open their businesses. I've done what I can to protect my family, employees and myself and will continue to do so. Next step for me would be to close down and I can't do it. My days are ridiculously long now because people don't answer phones, respond to emails, meetings are scheduled around bullshit and everything moves so fucking slow. That's my personal problem with the current way things are going. I'm just flat out tired, so is my wife and the people around me.

So, if social distancing needs to continue, by all means keep that tape on the floor, don't cough in people's faces, and don't forget to wash your hands but allow restaurants, bars, retail, barber shops, etc., the opportunity to chose and prove they can phase in, slowly and responsibly. Forcing the doors to remain closed is just fucking wrong. 

 

Some (?many) will just choose to stay home for now. You risk takers can do your thing. No guns please.

[JSngry]

26 minutes ago, catesta said:

Meanwhile,for you and others, it is the response out of this administration, that is mind boggling to you.

Actually, it's been the most predictable element of all this for me. Totally predictable.

Regardless of ideologies left/middle/right - Government itself is a non-translatable skill set, and not everybody has it.

Not talking "politics" here, b/c you can see evidence of "getting it" across the party spectrum.

But people who don't believe in government should keep the fuck out of government, period, just like people who don't believe in love should stay the fuck out of family. Go do your thing somewhere else, ok? Plenty of other outlets.

[catesta]

Guns, what the fuck?

I'm sure many will choose to stay home and that is the choice.

I have no choice on the everyday risk, my business provides what is considered critical/essential services. If I don't do it, a competitor takes it and I'm left with nothing. At 53, I do not have it in me to start all over considering what level of energy and effort it took to get here.

 

[ghost of miles]

34 minutes ago, catesta said:

Guns, what the fuck?

I'm sure many will choose to stay home and that is the choice.

I have no choice on the everyday risk, my business provides what is considered critical/essential services. If I don't do it, a competitor takes it and I'm left with nothing. At 53, I do not have it in me to start all over considering what level of energy and effort it took to get here.

 

I really appreciate where you are, Chris. And I have my own economic concerns as well—my job is stable for the moment, but the next 1-2 years are going to be a rocky ride even in the best-case scenarios. Our station went into this craziness in good fiscal shape, but I foresee just about all of our revenue tributaries taking significant hits, and soon. One of them is underwriting from local businesses like yours. And I think people here are more likely to find fault with the federal govt not so much out of partisanship in this instance, but because this is the kind of tsunami that requires the fed govt to be a primary leader across the board. And they’ve failed spectacularly, in part for the reasons that Jsngry points to. Anyway, hope you can ride this out without it taking too much of a toll on you at the personal level. It’s fucking hard, all of it.

On another note, IHME just revised their model and doubled the # of projected deaths through August from what they were saying just a week ago. They now project 135,000 U.S. deaths by the beginning of August.  That’s based in part on what’s happening at the state level with the lifting of restrictions, unaccompanied by the benchmarks and safeguards/policies that most health experts have said are necessary to prevent an exponential burst of new infections. It’s a lose-lose situation for sure. 

 

[JSngry]

A delightfully bipartisan look at leaders in government who actually believe in government:

The front-line coronavirus leaders

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-state-local-leaders-7887ab1d-eb43-4243-8e39-1e4cb5974d85.html

It's more than a philosophy, it's an actual skill set.

[Rooster_Ties]

What bothers me most is that opening back up considerably (even only half-way), with what will surely be at least some half-measures (admittedly mostly well-meaning, I’ll grant)... ...and probably further hampered by idiots who refuse to really social-distance (and/or wear masks), along with less ‘bad-meaning’ people who aren’t political about their actions, but who will unfortunately turn out in droves to beaches, and congregate in parks, and gather clandestinely for large or even just large-ish house-parties... Enough of all those bad-actors will surly result in the a resurgence of infections (is that the right term?), and a lot more deaths.

All unfortunately tacitly approved of by some people in positions of real power and authority, while they simultaneously send mixed signals about what we really should be doing as a country, and as individuals - to try and reduce the impact of this virus, to reduce the number of preventable deaths.

You can argue whether any particular loss was preventable (or not) - but what is not arguable is the overall number of preventable deaths (not a specific number, but a NOT-insignificant percentage, even if that number/percentage can’t be calculated with precision).

I’m trying to convey my exasperation with all of this, without getting political. And to be clear, I’m not crazily worried about my own health, or my wife’s. Or our families. We’re all doing what we can to minimize our own risks, without hermetically sealing ourselves into our small 1BR apartment (of ~630 sqft). Nor are any for us buying everything on Amazon, though we’re only making grocery runs about once every 5 days. (And the ONLY thing we’ve bought on-line since December is prescription cat food - about 4 months worth, just in case supply-lines get wonky.)

Too many in this country aren’t taking COVID-19 seriously enough, and the impact will be born disproportionally by those less fortunate to not be in positions where they can truly hunker down for a while (admittedly, a lot longer than most of us ever imagined).

In other words, it’s pretty easy to say “open everything up” when the odds aren’t stacked against you in the calculus of who will be most affected by all this.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Rooster_Ties

[JSngry]

If I had a landscaping/groundskeeping-maintanence business right now, I'd be looking at pivoting to cemetery maintenance. It's gonna be a growth market, nowhere to go but up (or in, as the case may be?), and as they say, they're not making any more land!

Plus -  one day you will be able to work from home. Win-win, right?

Remember -

 

16 minutes ago, Rooster_Ties said:

Too many in this country aren’t taking COVID-19 seriously enough, and the impact will be born disproportionally by those less fortunate to not be in positions where they can truly hunker down for a while (admittedly, a lot longer than most of us ever imagined).

If life was fair, the impact would be perfectly borne by precisely those who aren't taking COVID-19 seriously enough.

But, you know, life being fair, I mean, c'mon, when was the last time THAT happened?