COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

[catesta]

17 hours ago, bresna said:

As Miles would say, "So What"? You think they are any better? Stephen Hahn is the current head of the FDA and "in April 2020, Hahn instructed FEMA administrator Peter Gaynor "to distribute hydroxychloroquine to pharmacies nationwide," even though the emergency use authorization (EUA) issued by the FDA did not provide for outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Hydroxychloroquine was later linked to multiple deaths of COVID-19 patients, and the FDA revoked the EUA in June 2020".

https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/fda-issued-emergency-authorization-hydroxychloroquine-treatment-covid-19-patients-usa

I can see based on what was being said at the time how Hahn did something so crazy as to call for distribution.

The FDA, EUA, HC and all of science are sometimes wrong and sometimes right. That is the history of medical science, isn't it?  And that shit still goes on today.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-can-trust-the-fdas-vaccine-process-11600633351

Fauci has total faith in FDA process. https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/fauci-why-americans-can-trust-approval-process-for-a-potential-covid-vaccine

 

Edited September 24, 2020 by catesta

[Guy Berger]

6 hours ago, Rooster_Ties said:

Speaking of eating out, and just as an aside: FWIW, my wife and I haven’t eaten out at all since March, not even with the numerous outdoor sidewalk seating areas (which is the *only* restaurant seating option here since the lockdown - we’re only in phase 2 here in DC).

...

We just feel like eating out at restaurants feels inappropriate in the middle of a pandemic crisis. We still patronize our favorite independent “mom & pop” restaurants for takeout frequently, and we usually tip 20-30%.

We also do exclusively delivery (and occasional pickup) rather than restaurants, but worth noting that eating outdoors is MUCH safer than eating indoors.  And bars seem to be a lot riskier than restaurants.

[Matthew]

I've gone to local restaurants since they opened for indoor dining four of five times. The tables are kept well apart, and the only person around, outside of guests, in the server, so it seems to be working well. Of course, around here most jobs are tourist dependent to a great extent, and people from the bordering counties that are shut down, come here to enjoy free time, so dining is encouraged to help the local economy. As to coronavirus conditions, Napa County is actually going down in terms of cases, and everyone is expecting the go-ahead on 50% capacity in a week or two -- we're at 25% right now.

[Justin V]

17 hours ago, medjuck said:

Where do you live? 

Ohio.  

Regarding restaurants, we have done takeout.  Being a vegan (me)/vegetarian (my wife and daughter) household, I'm thankful that our go-to restaurants have avoided permanent closure.  Although I am in no hurry to resume in-person dining, we are trying to support places as much as is financially prudent.

[JSngry]

19 hours ago, catesta said:

The FDA, EUA, HC and all of science are sometimes wrong and sometimes right. That is the history of medical science, isn't it? 

Ok, I'll play, although why, I don't know. Maybe I just need the laugh before bed tonight.

"Sometimes", yes, because nothing is 100%, not even 100%. But given the evolution of science and medicine since the days of, say, Columbus (hey, those were the days, right?), what are the odds today? Who is more likely to actually be right? And if you're taking what is certainly the long shot on who is NOT going to be right, is that nothing more than, at best, an isolated individual choice that may or may not (nothing's 100%) impact people besides yourself?

I think most people are going to play the odds of who's got the proven record, not of being perfect, but of being more likely to be correct, and, if not 100% correct, being more likely to be in need of further refinement, not being all the way on the wrong fucking planet.

But we certainly do need to be wary of "science" and "medicine" that is only partially such a thing. Yes, there are agendas everywheree, but the people with the demonstrably trustworty track record DO go to great pains to keep that shit out of their process. I've seen that type of purity of objectivity dwindle down at a frightening level over the past, as long as I've been alive, really. But the people who hang in, they are not the people looking to serve an agenda. From white supremacy to fundamentalist dogmatists to military-industrial complex to big pharma to today's...whatever the hell this Ignorance Machine is supposed to be, THOSE people do not get dealt with kindly by history. The people who stay true to science, objectivity-driven truths - and failures - those people have earned the right to have more cred than those who did not (cf AIIDS/AZT Gallo/Redfield. Duesberg, and yes, Faucci). Nothing is 100%. But 90% beats the hell our of 53%. Always.

Hell, yes, I am sometimes going to shit everyday. But I may not shit every day. Still. I buy toilet paper, because I still have bowels, I still eat, and I know how that shit (no pun intended) works, so if I go too long, I know how to fix that. There's science there that will point me to the correct solution, and it doesn't involve waiting for science to be wrong oe betting that, no, they won't be right THIS time

I'm not saying that any individual who takes this "well, sometimes they're wrong, so fuck 'em" position is stupid. But I will say unequivocally and unambiguosuly that the argument itself is stupid. Not just stupid but dangerous.

Nobody's going to be right 100% of the time, but predictive behavioral outcomes are pretty damn close to as sure a thing as you can get these days, especially when playing the long game..Preponderance of the evidence, and as evidence accumulates, so does the increased certainty of the predictability of the outcomes.

Long game always plays the odds because that's how one truly wins the long game. Save the wildass side bets for games of cheap thrills, penicillin shots, and zero lasting impact. If you can't do that, there's surely SOME kind of 1-800 # for DoingStupidShits Annonymous out there somewhere.

[Brad]

On 9/24/2020 at 9:44 PM, Justin V said:

Get well soon, Brad!

Thanks Justin. 

[Brad]

I’ve been cleared to leave the hospital.  I can’t tell you what a relief it is and how I realize that our health can be fragile. 

[jazzbo]

Wonderful news Brad!

[Dan Gould]

26 minutes ago, jazzbo said:

Wonderful news Brad!

+1

[catesta]

13 hours ago, JSngry said:

Ok, I'll play, although why, I don't know. Maybe I just need the laugh before bed tonight.

"Sometimes", yes, because nothing is 100%, not even 100%. But given the evolution of science and medicine since the days of, say, Columbus (hey, those were the days, right?), what are the odds today? Who is more likely to actually be right? And if you're taking what is certainly the long shot on who is NOT going to be right, is that nothing more than, at best, an isolated individual choice that may or may not (nothing's 100%) impact people besides yourself?

I think most people are going to play the odds of who's got the proven record, not of being perfect, but of being more likely to be correct, and, if not 100% correct, being more likely to be in need of further refinement, not being all the way on the wrong fucking planet.

But we certainly do need to be wary of "science" and "medicine" that is only partially such a thing. Yes, there are agendas everywheree, but the people with the demonstrably trustworty track record DO go to great pains to keep that shit out of their process. I've seen that type of purity of objectivity dwindle down at a frightening level over the past, as long as I've been alive, really. But the people who hang in, they are not the people looking to serve an agenda. From white supremacy to fundamentalist dogmatists to military-industrial complex to big pharma to today's...whatever the hell this Ignorance Machine is supposed to be, THOSE people do not get dealt with kindly by history. The people who stay true to science, objectivity-driven truths - and failures - those people have earned the right to have more cred than those who did not (cf AIIDS/AZT Gallo/Redfield. Duesberg, and yes, Faucci). Nothing is 100%. But 90% beats the hell our of 53%. Always.

Hell, yes, I am sometimes going to shit everyday. But I may not shit every day. Still. I buy toilet paper, because I still have bowels, I still eat, and I know how that shit (no pun intended) works, so if I go too long, I know how to fix that. There's science there that will point me to the correct solution, and it doesn't involve waiting for science to be wrong oe betting that, no, they won't be right THIS time

I'm not saying that any individual who takes this "well, sometimes they're wrong, so fuck 'em" position is stupid. But I will say unequivocally and unambiguosuly that the argument itself is stupid. Not just stupid but dangerous.

Nobody's going to be right 100% of the time, but predictive behavioral outcomes are pretty damn close to as sure a thing as you can get these days, especially when playing the long game..Preponderance of the evidence, and as evidence accumulates, so does the increased certainty of the predictability of the outcomes.

Long game always plays the odds because that's how one truly wins the long game. Save the wildass side bets for games of cheap thrills, penicillin shots, and zero lasting impact. If you can't do that, there's surely SOME kind of 1-800 # for DoingStupidShits Annonymous out there somewhere.

So I guess we are in agreement. The medical community believes the FDA will get this right, and those saying they will only trust what comes out of Europe and Canada are being irrational.

 

 

[ejp626]

13 minutes ago, catesta said:

So I guess we are in agreement. The medical community believes the FDA will get this right, and those saying they will only trust what comes out of Europe and Canada are being irrational.

 

 

You do what you want.  Given the track record of the political appointees over-riding the core recommendations of the scientists at CDC and FDA, and then only coming clean later or reversing themselves under pressure, I no longer have faith in these institutions.  Sad...

[Brad]

I still have confidence in the FDA but I also believe companies like J & J and Pfizer are not going to release a product that is not safe and effective. 

[ejp626]

Ripped from the headlines - "Trump claims White House can overrule FDA's attempt to toughen guidelines for coronavirus vaccine"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics/trump-fda-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

My worry is that we may never actually know what the FDA recommendations are because the WH runs interference.  In any case, I do hope that any vaccine that reaches the US market is thoroughly vetted by the firms themselves.  But I'll only have what is released in Canada anyway.

 

[Rooster_Ties]

22 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

...but worth noting that eating outdoors is MUCH safer than eating indoors.  And bars seem to be a lot riskier than restaurants.

Yeah, I think If push came to shove, we’d probably be OK eating outside (sidewalk cafe style), but we just haven’t had any even remotely good reason to.

We used to eat out a lot, too much probably. Now it just seems like a luxury we feel weird doing, given all the folks struggling, (to us), we would feel tone-deaf eating out.

I’m NOT saying we think that when we see others eating out. Part of it (for us) is also that restaurants here have such limited seating outside, that we just don’t feel the need to use up that limited commodity (space).

We’re perfectly fine getting takeout, leaving more openings for others to eat out if they want. (But we still tip as though we’ve eaten out.)

Edited September 25, 2020 by Rooster_Ties

[Brad]

1 hour ago, ejp626 said:

Ripped from the headlines - "Trump claims White House can overrule FDA's attempt to toughen guidelines for coronavirus vaccine"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/politics/trump-fda-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

My worry is that we may never actually know what the FDA recommendations are because the WH runs interference.  In any case, I do hope that any vaccine that reaches the US market is thoroughly vetted by the firms themselves.  But I'll only have what is released in Canada anyway.

 

The above companies, as well as other big pharma companies, have rigorous standards. As I said, I don’t think they will release anything that they don’t consider safe and efficacious. 

[ejp626]

There's been a bit of back and forth between the Province and the Mayors about who can really call for stricter standards, particularly at bars and nightclubs.

Right now the private gathering numbers have been cut back, but stores, gyms, movie theatres, etc. continue as before in the Phase 3 reopening.

However, they announced two new restrictions, Ontario-wide:

• Last call at bars and restaurants, including nightclubs, is 11 p.m.
• All strip clubs will be closed until further notice.

I might even have gone with 10 pm last call, but this may help a bit.

The daily Provincial new COVID cases are definitely up around 400 (from 150 or so)  but it may have leveled off for the moment and doesn't seem to be headed to 500+ or anything.  I really hope I don't have to eat my words in another few weeks.

Quite a lot of kids are doing on-line only learning but a sizable number are in school at least part of the time a few days a week, including mine.  The real question is whether this will drive up cases or not.

Supposedly in the next week or so, we'll be able to go to the pharmacy for an instant COVID test.  Depending on how things go, this could bring some relief to the standard COVID testing centres, especially for all the kids that get a case of the sniffles and can't go back to school without a COVID test.

[catesta]

2 hours ago, Brad said:

The above companies, as well as other big pharma companies, have rigorous standards. As I said, I don’t think they will release anything that they don’t consider safe and efficacious. 

Right. And lot of these companies are collaborating with one another or have involved universities and the NIAID. Pfizer is working with BioNTech, Aztra Zeneca with Oxford, Eli Lilly is developing preventative therapies along with Amgen. It's quite possible there will be some hit and miss with early versions but it's highly unlikely it will not be safe.

[Kevin Bresnahan]

Israel & France are inching closer to a complete shutdown. The UK is not far behind. The second wave started when they sent their kids back to school.

[JSngry]

I don't plan on being a first-wave vaccinee, just because I am still doing very good at not getting into a risky environment. I don't get innoculations as a matter of course, only just a few years ago that my doctor talked me into getting flu shots based on age and other factors. It made sense to follow that advice and the science was there.

But i will be paying extra close attention to the first wave ov COVID vaccine(s), efficacy, because you should not have to worry about the FDA being run like Trump University.

But I do, if only because to think that there's all the resignations of career gigholders everywhere you look is some part of a political conspiracy in "provably" more irrational than suspecting the other way around. There are long-term track records here, you do the math about which one is more rightly "suspicious".

This shit's too important to be left to clownshows.

[Guy Berger]

22 minutes ago, bresna said:

Israel & France are inching closer to a complete shutdown. The UK is not far behind. The second wave started when they sent their kids back to school.

In Israel the 2nd wave was definitely initiated by schools but... was that also the case in France?

In Spain, from what I understand, there are just a lot of bars and restaurants open... i.e. they're getting a 2nd wave for the same reason that Florida/Georgia/Texas got hammered.

[JSngry]

Schools, bars, either way, unformed young people with no good sense.

[Daniel A]

8 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

In Israel the 2nd wave was definitely initiated by schools but... was that also the case in France?

This is what the European Centre for Desease Prevention and Control says:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/facts/questions-answers-school-transmission

4. Do schools spread the virus to the wider community?

Available evidence suggests that transmission among children in schools is less efficient for COVID-19 than for other respiratory viruses such as influenza. However, this evidence is mainly derived from school outbreaks and relies on the detection of symptomatic cases, possibly underestimating the number of infected, asymptomatic, and potentially infectious, children during such an outbreak.

In summary, where COVID-19 in children has been detected and contacts followed-up, no adult contacts in school settings have been detected as COVID-19-positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that children in school settings are not the primary drivers of COVID-19 transmission to adults."

 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

10 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

In Israel the 2nd wave was definitely initiated by schools but... was that also the case in France?

In Spain, from what I understand, there are just a lot of bars and restaurants open... i.e. they're getting a 2nd wave for the same reason that Florida/Georgia/Texas got hammered.

The story I read said that there was evidence that a lot of the UK outbreaks are coming from colleges & universities, not grammar schools.

[sidewinder]

The predictable turmoil in Halls of Residence, not helped by ‘Freshers Week’ partying, at a lot of these ‘establishments’.

They can stay in their bubbles !

Edited September 26, 2020 by sidewinder

[ejp626]

As of yesterday, 35 US colleges and universities had reported at least 1000 cases of COVID (each).  It works out to 130,000 cases when adding up all the universities below 1000 cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

With a few exceptions, Canadian universities are virtual-only and relatively few students are now living on campus, but the experiment in our case will be the school children back in school.