COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

[Jim Duckworth]

2 hours ago, JSngry said:

If this was at a friend's house, was the friend not aware that workers were coming? Did said friend not set expectations with the landscaping company that sent the workers?

There should not have been any surprises here.

There shouldn't have been any surprises, but the schedule for maintenance was deemed more flexible by the workers as the client/friend was out of town. The client/friend uses this crew as a part of a business venture and, it turns out, is somewhat exasperated with the Pandemic related strictures on her business.  This has been a challenging situation.

[Guy Berger]

On 8/9/2020 at 4:14 AM, medjuck said:

https://www.independent.com/2020/08/06/testing-remain-a-major-problem-in-santa-barbara-county/

This is, of course, only anecdotal but it does suggest that the number of infections is under-reported which would mean that if the death toll is accurate then the death rate from covid is lower than reported.   OTOH  what is listed as the cause of death if you've never been tested?   In any case it sure sounds like it's a lot worse than the flu or even pneumonia. 

A few things here.

First, yes, cases are significantly undercounted (though less so than in March).  There are multiple true COVID cases for each single measured case.  As a result, the case fatality rate (CFR; COVID deaths as a share of measured COVID cases) is much higher than the infection fatality rate (IFR; COVID deaths as a share of both measured and unmeasured COVID cases).  One of reasons the CFR has fallen a lot in recent months is just because we're testing more; testing is no longer limited to the very ill.  Most estimates of the IFR range from something like 0.5%-1.2% (whereas earlier in the epidemic you routinely saw CFRs above 3% - think of NYC, Wuhan, Lombardy).  The IFR *may* have been going down recently - possibly due to better treatment (we have a few effective therapeutics), maybe hospitals being less overloaded, maybe the cases skewing younger than before.

Second, deaths are also undermeasured (though not nearly as much as cases).  Attribution of deaths that are probably due to COVID varies from location to location, but excess "all-cause" deaths are much higher than official COVID deaths, suggesting many people are dying of the illness untested.

Third, "COVID truthers" sometimes misleadingly compare the CFR from the flu to the IFR from COVID to suggest that COVID is equally or less dangerous than the flu.  This is misinformation.  The flu, probably even more than COVID, is massively undercounted - how many people do you know who have the flu and bother to get tested?  COVID is way worse than the FLU.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Guy Berger

[JSngry]

Yeah, probably best to put all that on hold for a while, pool or no pool...no need to be friends with somebody who don't/won't give a damn about your personal safety.

I mean, for real, this is not the time for "misunderstandings", especially ones htat result in hostile actions, be it throwing coffee or intentionally coughing/sneezing/whatever.

I thought I was a misanthropic son of a bitch, but LORD have mercy, that kind of shit is just evil spirits at play.

[ghost of miles]

Man arrested for breaking 72-yr-old veteran’s jaw in mask dispute

I don’t know what Washington’s public mask mandate is—but I do know that I read far, far more stories about anti-maskers getting violent than I do stories like the one about the woman throwing her coffee at the dude in a Trump hat. And that to me is just another symptom of how f’d up this country has become. Pretty much ready at this point for a Blue Zone America and a Red Zone America. 

[Brad]

What has happened to public decency in this country. When I was a kid back in the Stone Age we took courses on civics to inculcate in us shared values, democracy, getting along with our fellow citizens, etc. What happened to all that? Guess it was all a big lie (especially if you’re Black). Call me naive. Guess we all were. 

[sonnymax]

Florida sheriff orders deputies not to wear masks, bans civilians in masks from office

"We can debate and argue all day of why and why not. The fact is, the amount of professionals that give the reason why we should [wear masks], I can find the exact same amount of professionals that say why we shouldn’t....In light of the current events when it comes to the sentiment and/or hatred toward law enforcement in our country today, this is being done to ensure there is clear communication and for identification purposes of any individual walking into a lobby," Sheriff Woods wrote.

[Guy Berger]

On 8/10/2020 at 2:40 PM, Brad said:

What has happened to public decency in this country. When I was a kid back in the Stone Age we took courses on civics to inculcate in us shared values, democracy, getting along with our fellow citizens, etc. What happened to all that? Guess it was all a big lie (especially if you’re Black). Call me naive. Guess we all were. 

Being a terrible person to others has become a way to affirm status and affiliation.  "Vice signaling."

[T.D.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/accuracy-of-us-coronavirus-data-thrown-into-question-as-decline-in-testing-skews-drop-in-new-cases.html

[ejp626]

4 hours ago, sonnymax said:

Florida sheriff orders deputies not to wear masks, bans civilians in masks from office

"We can debate and argue all day of why and why not. The fact is, the amount of professionals that give the reason why we should [wear masks], I can find the exact same amount of professionals that say why we shouldn’t....In light of the current events when it comes to the sentiment and/or hatred toward law enforcement in our country today, this is being done to ensure there is clear communication and for identification purposes of any individual walking into a lobby," Sheriff Woods wrote.

I was going to link to the same thing.  Marion County's largest city is Ocala, and the Ocala City Council voted for a mask policy only for the mayor to veto it, largely because the sheriff said flat out he would refuse to enforce it. 

American exceptionalism at work...

[sonnymax]

Stop beating around the bush, Kev, and tell us how you really feel. 

[Kevin Bresnahan]

My 30 year old daughter just called to tell me that the husband of her best friend from high school is still debilitated from COVID-19 that he first contracted in March. He's now developed cardiac issues and the doctors are worried about the blood flow in his lungs. He's having trouble walking and often can't get himself out of bed.

All of this from a "simple flu". It's "like a cold" . It "only affects the elderly" . It "only affects people with pre-existing conditions". It is "not a big deal". 

I wish those quotes were made up and people really weren't that stupid and heartless.

[T.D.]

19 hours ago, bresna said:

My 30 year old daughter just called to tell me that the husband of her best friend from high school is still debilitated from COVID-19 that he first contracted in March. He's now developed cardiac issues and the doctors are worried about the blood flow in his lungs. He's having trouble walking and often can't get himself out of bed.

All of this from a "simple flu". It's "like a cold" . It "only affects the elderly" . It "only affects people with pre-existing conditions". It is "not a big deal". 

I wish those quotes were made up and people really weren't that stupid and heartless.

Same morons who spout "all lives matter" in other contexts.

[Jim Duckworth]

On 8/10/2020 at 1:58 PM, ghost of miles said:

And that to me is just another symptom of how f’d up this country has become. Pretty much ready at this point for a Blue Zone America and a Red Zone America. 

I am older and really surprised as seemingly common sense precautions urged by public health officials are politicized.  It is shocking to me that the Post Office is now (in all likelihood) a polarizing institution. I have been very resistant to the idea of balkanizing the US, but now I'm ready to listen to the case for such drastic action.

 

[Brad]

13 hours ago, Jim Duckworth said:

I am older and really surprised as seemingly common sense precautions urged by public health officials are politicized.  It is shocking to me that the Post Office is now (in all likelihood) a polarizing institution. I have been very resistant to the idea of balkanizing the US, but now I'm ready to listen to the case for such drastic action.

 

Wait until November 4 when the you know what will hit the fan. We are heading to a crackup. 

[Brad]

Civic responsibility at work:

New York Has a 14-Day Quarantine. Most New Yorkers Are Ignoring It

[Kevin Bresnahan]

ICU doctor at Baltimore's Mercy Medical Center dies of the Coronavirus he worked to help others overcome

[ejp626]

Incredibly enough, there were only 5 reported new cases in Toronto today and under 100 in Ontario as a whole.  We've been under the 100 new case mark for over a week now, with one or two minor spikes, and deaths are way, way down thankfully.  More than anything it is probably due to pretty strict indoor mask rules (that people follow without too much fuss) and keeping the US-Canadian border closed...

I'm still avoiding transit and biking everywhere, but when the rates are this low, I'm sure transit is reasonably safe.  I haven't gone to any movies, though I might next week as they start ramping up again.  I am going to the gym twice a week, and that is a level of risk I can live with for now.

I may have mentioned that I am back in the office 3-4 days/week, but it is basically a ghost town (it's purely voluntary at this point).  It will actually get harder to follow all the social distancing rules as more people return.  For myself, I do prefer having a bit more separation between home and work.

I'm not sure what others will do, but we are going to be sending the kids back to school in the fall (probably half in-person and half on-line, though the school board hasn't completely made up its mind...).  Again, it's a combination of fairly low rates in the community (at the moment) and not having any grandparents living with us.  I would probably make a different decision if we were in Florida or Texas, for instance, and I certainly sympathize with parents facing tough choices...

[Dan Gould]

Stop panicking about the post office:

https://medium.com/@nharpermn/stop-panicking-about-the-post-office-8bcd689b9601

About the most even-handed treatment I've seen. And at least half of the things he deals with I haven't even heard about. Side benefit to not listening to loony left media/social media.

And by the way folks, the greatest threat to vote by mail is dozens of states trying to do it on the fly.

States that have done it for a while keep a close watch on data upkeep. States like, I don't know, NY? 20% of primary ballots rejected. About 7 weeks before results were announced.  Or how about the county in Nevada, the one that includes Las Vegas? 200,000 ballots sent to the wrong address, because that was the one on file.

 

 

[ghost of miles]

1 hour ago, Dan Gould said:

Stop panicking about the post office:

https://medium.com/@nharpermn/stop-panicking-about-the-post-office-8bcd689b9601

About the most even-handed treatment I've seen. And at least half of the things he deals with I haven't even heard about. Side benefit to not listening to loony left media/social media.

And by the way folks, the greatest threat to vote by mail is dozens of states trying to do it on the fly.

States that have done it for a while keep a close watch on data upkeep. States like, I don't know, NY? 20% of primary ballots rejected. About 7 weeks before results were announced.  Or how about the county in Nevada, the one that includes Las Vegas? 200,000 ballots sent to the wrong address, because that was the one on file.

 

 

There are a ton of holes in this guy's analysis (not to mention his recommendations), and I'm not impressed by his citing somebody from the "Government Accountability Institute" (NOT the GAO, but rather a Steve Bannon outfit funded by loony rightwing oligarch Robert Mercer) telling us "nothing to see here!" about LeJoy's overt conflicts of interest.  I'll come back to this later, but so much of this take is either disingenuous or naive--and yeah, yeah, I know he declares that Trump is a "malicious, authoritarian jerk."  That doesn't change the gist of the article, which goes way out of its way to justify a lot of malicious and destructive outcomes from what LeJoy is doing at DT's behest.  Time is short for me right now, but just a couple of things that jump out:

>>The U.S. Constitution creates the post office and requires Congress to fund it.

False.

Several people seem to be under the belief that the Constitution mandates the existence or funding of the United States Postal Service. The U.S. Constitution does mention the postal system in a sense, but doesn’t create the post office or require its funding. Article I, section 8, clause 7 of the Constitution gives Congress “the Power […] To establish Post Offices and Post Roads.”

It requires nothing; it merely permits Congress to act, if Congress so chooses. The clause gives Congress the ability to create post offices and the implied authority to create and provide services through the United States Postal Service. And Congress has.<<

OK, I haven't seen anybody citing the claim that he's "debunking" here, but it's sort of like saying, "Hey, there's no Constitutional requirement to fund the military.  Yes, the govt is authorized to create and provide a military to defend the country, but there's no obligation to fund it."  WTF?!  Also, Congress is *trying* to help fund it right now, but Trump is refusing to sign any bill that provides any assistance.  I haven't checked on what the Senate GOP is up to in this regard, but ultimately it doesn't matter if Trump vetoes any spending bill--unless there are 20 GOP Senators willing to buck Dear Leader.  There's a better chance that the Red Sox win the World Series this year. 

>>People have claimed that Trump wants to slow down mail delivery through DeJoy in order to rig the election. Trump, being who he is, proved them right by admitting it in public. He stated that he didn’t want to give USPS money because it would enable them to deliver mail ballots more efficiently. Trump is a malicious, authoritarian jerk; I’m not denying that. But Trump says a lot of stupid things, like Mexico will pay for walls and COVID-19 will be over in a month. And he technically has no control over DeJoy; only the Board of Governors does.<<

A Board of Governors now dominated by a majority of Trump appointees, NOT the 5-5 split it's supposed to be.  (Would love to hear an accounting of why those vacancies currently exist.)  Given the way DT fires inspector generals right and left and wants anybody who doesn't follow his every wish booted out of their job (do I need to cite the many, many examples of this?) and often succeeds in having those wishes fulfilled, all with nary a peep from Republican politicians, this is a null argument.  It's all right out in the open--Trump has stated his goal and has his guy in place to carry it out, however it's rationalized.  

>>Let’s assume that USPS is an essential public service. (Geez, generous of you to assume that!  Maybe you should have mentioned the many seniors who are dealing with ??delays in receiving their medications as a result of all of this suddenly-necessary disruption?) This is a relatively safe assumption since Americans think it’s the most important role in our current COVID-19 world. 91% of Democrats and 91% of Republicans favorably view the agency. And USPS is heavily relied upon by business, including Amazon, UPS, and Fed Ex, to carry their package the last mile to residences and rural businesses that aren’t served by other parcel carriers.

Should Congress fund it? I think that’s a double edged sword. I think it’s smart to keep such a crucial, independent agency sufficient with its own funding. I would hate to see USPS slowed or shut down due to severe budget cuts or a government shutdown. On the other hand, one time emergency funding wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Regardless, DeJoy doesn’t have control over that. His job is to balance the budget. Only Congress can decide whether and how to provide USPS any funding.<<

Is it DeJoy's "job to balance the budget"?  Where is that stated, exactly?  That's a policy goal, not a legal mandate.  And no, it doesn't matter what Congress decides if Trump refuses to sign legislation helping to fund USPS.  See above.

Oh, and I love his rebuttal to "the USPS is removing many mail-collection boxes and destroying machines that are used to sort ballots."  He says, "True, but they've now stopped!"  Yes, they stopped because there was such an uproar over it.  Thank you, loony left and social media!  

I get that this guy is not an "Always-Trumper," but this still strikes me as a lot of weirdly strained rationalization. He also cites several DT administration or ideologically-aligned officials without offering any perspective from the carriers' union or on-the-ground USPS employees... and they have plenty of perspective that's being reported, nearly all of it not good.  More to come tonight.  

[JSngry]

If it walks like a mail box and quacks like a mail box, then it probably is a mail box. Maybe there's a duck inside it, but when you don't see the mail box but still here a quack, somebody be fucking with that duck.

Don't fuck with a duck or a mailbox, or especially one that might be inside the other. Next thing you know, it turns into a goose, and I am a living witness that a goose can turn evil on your ass before you can get away from it.

[Patrick]

I thought this was supposed to be about a coronavirus, and not about politics. 

[jazzbo]

Yes, ideally in the real world it would be too. But this decade everything is about politics. . . .

[sonnymax]

On 8/17/2020 at 10:34 AM, Dan Gould said:

Stop panicking about the post office:

[Dan Gould]

Interesting article especially in context of the reporting of a second confirmed infection in Hong Kong:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

[Dan Gould]

Surprised to discover today that in Polk county at least, Publix supermarket has removed the directional/flow signage on the floor.  Did not inquire whether that was giving in to people not obeying anymore (flow was generally quite good at the Publix locations I've been to since they put  the signage down) or some corporate determination that its not needed.

At least face mask usage is high there, and I don't think Polk has made it mandatory. (Hillsborough, where I live, does have a mask mandate and when I went to Tires Plus yesterday, customer at desk and two of three employees were maskless.)