COVID-19 III: No Politics For Thee

[ghost of miles]

Yet another:

San Antonio patient in 30s dies after attending "COVID party"

I read the Richard Rose story this morning before seeing the latest posts on this thread and had an initial reaction of compassion, thinking that I don't take any told-you-so pleasure in reading these ever-increasing stories about COVID truthers who've gotten sick and died.  But OTOH I have nothing but rage for the whole climate of toxic leadership (if you can call it that) that's contributed not only to such stupidity that endangers other people's lives as well as those who get sick and die (and that's the point of Medjuck's post--and if you read anything at all about Rose's behavior, it's quite likely that he may have infected quite a few other people, judging from his Facebook check-ins, etc) and the partisan ignorance and hatred that's made it impossible for us to fight this virus collectively.  And yes, the blame for that goes 100% to one "side," the same "side" that's chosen to make everything a g.d. side and demonize those who disagree.  It's one thing for us to differ about the best policies or general ideologies to govern a country, quite another when blind hatred and willful delusion results in a plague getting further and further out of control.  So while I feel genuine compassion even for somebody like Rose, part of my compassion stems from his being a buying-in victim of the vitriolic crap that helped enable this mess to become such a disaster in the first place.  

I worry for myself, most certainly, but I also worry for my girlfriend, my father, my two brothers who both work in "essential jobs" that require a high degree of interaction with others, and I worry for older friends (and younger ones as well).  So I'm pretty fucking furious, especially when I look at how other countries responded to this so much more effectively.  Life's hard enough without narcissistic partisan knuckleheads making everything that much more deadly.  

33 minutes ago, Brad said:

America, where your rights matter more than anyone else’s. 

It's a shame when anyone dies from this but it’s also a shame when people can’t work together for the common good. 

Bingo.

Edited July 11, 2020 by ghost of miles

[T.D.]

Well said.

[Rooster_Ties]

In case this tweet/video gets deleted, I’ll quote it and two more tweets further describing it, in full. None of what follows next are my words; all just my cut-n-paste from twitter:

> These streamers are at Disney World, visited first aid last night for cough, shortness of breath, and severe vomiting, and were back in Magic Kingdom today complaining of sore throats. (click link for video)

https://twitter.com/JennyENicholson/status/1282106395307806720

> She is attributing her symptoms to a tree nut allergic reaction but she took benadryl, saw no change after several hours, and never used her epi pen. The first aid nurses advised that she go to a hospital and she didn't. They've announced they're visiting Animal Kingdom tomorrow.

> I'm not saying the channel name and I'm not inviting anyone to go harass these ladies if they find it; I'm sure they're nice ladies who think they're invincible and everything's good. But this is why theme parks shouldn't be open in a pandemic.

 

Edited July 12, 2020 by Rooster_Ties

[Matthew]

3 hours ago, Rooster_Ties said:

In case this tweet/video gets deleted, I’ll quote it and two more tweets further describing it, in full. None of what follows next are my words; all just my cut-n-paste from twitter:

> These streamers are at Disney World, visited first aid last night for cough, shortness of breath, and severe vomiting, and were back in Magic Kingdom today complaining of sore throats. (click link for video)

https://mobile.twitter.com/JennyENicholson/status/1282106395307806720

> She is attributing her symptoms to a tree nut allergic reaction but she took benadryl, saw no change after several hours, and never used her epi pen. The first aid nurses advised that she go to a hospital and she didn't. They've announced they're visiting Animal Kingdom tomorrow.

> I'm not saying the channel name and I'm not inviting anyone to go harass these ladies if they find it; I'm sure they're nice ladies who think they're invincible and everything's good. But this is why theme parks shouldn't be open in a pandemic.

 

The number of people defending all of this is amazing. There's a decent chance that it could be a reaction to a nut allergy, but why in the heck take a chance? or why would Disney not administer a Covid-19 test as a precaution? Most places, you can't even get into if you exhibit symptoms like she had. I guess The Mouse needs to be feed. At this point, it's just stupidity like this that keeps the numbers climbing.

[Soulstation1]

this scene could be today 

follow the rules if you want service 

[Matthew]

California is edging ever closer to shutting down and going back to Phase I. 

[ejp626]

3 hours ago, Matthew said:

California is edging ever closer to shutting down and going back to Phase I. 

I'm sorry to hear that.  Hope things are brought back under control.

Most of Ontario moves to Phase 3 this week, though Greater Toronto Area is still in Phase 2.  I'm guessing 2-3 more weeks to go for us.

[Soulstation1]

I'm going to get tested on Wednesday around 1

My sister is concerned for me 

A close married couple I know tested positive 

[clifford_thornton]

 

[Guy Berger]

On 7/11/2020 at 9:13 PM, Brad said:

Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, and who is frequently interviewed on TV, has said that the disease won’t level off until it has infected about 50-60% of the US population. That’s a scary thought. He has consistently counseled that we are only in the early stages of the pandemic; he likens to being only in the 2nd inning. 

50%-60% infected Americans => 800K-2M dead Americans

[Dan Gould]

3 minutes ago, Guy Berger said:

50%-60% infected Americans => 800K-2M dead Americans

Under what assumptions about the fatality rate?

[Guy Berger]

 

On 7/11/2020 at 0:03 PM, Dan Gould said:

I trust this is not posted in a spirit of "just rewards".

It's a sad story.  I feel bad for anybody who dies from this dangerous illness, and for their loved ones.

But worth reflecting on how we'd process this story if this was a story about drunk driving instead of COVID.

We probably won't ever know for sure if he infected anyone, but there's a decent probability he did since he enthusiastically engaged in high-risk-for-transmission behavior.  At the very least he put people at risk, much like a person who frequently and enthusiastically drives drunk.

5 minutes ago, Dan Gould said:

Under what assumptions about the fatality rate?

0.5%-1.0% infection fatality rate.

[JSngry]

11 minutes ago, Guy Berger said:

 much like a person who frequently and enthusiastically drives drunk.

and there are still people who do that. Not as many as there used to be, thank god, but, you know, some people take longer processing the notion of JEESUS, DUMBASS JUST DON'T DO THAT!!! than others.

[Brad]

3 hours ago, Guy Berger said:

50%-60% infected Americans => 800K-2M dead Americans

Based on the current infected rate, 800K-2M dead is probably a conservative figure. 

[Guy Berger]

6 minutes ago, Brad said:

Based on the current infected rate, 800K-2M dead is probably a conservative figure. 

Why do you say that?

[Brad]

26 minutes ago, Guy Berger said:

Why do you say that?

I’m assuming, perhaps wrongly, that if 50-60% of the population is infected, the rate of infection has significantly increased. 

[Guy Berger]

I don't understand what you mean by that, but my calculation is:

330M Americans

50%-60% eventually infected before herd immunity reached => 165M-198M Americans eventually infected

0.5%-1.0% infection fatality rate => 800K-2M Americans dead of COVID

[Niko]

Over here, everybody I talk to has become very pessimistic about the possibility of herd immunity or a vaccine (due to the vanishing antibodies thing)

[Guy Berger]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Over here, everybody I talk to has become very pessimistic about the possibility of herd immunity or a vaccine (due to the vanishing antibodies thing)

That seems way too pessimistic, based on what I've read from public health experts.  I'm pretty confident we'll have a reasonably effective vaccine.  I'm more worried about widespread adoption, given prevalence of anti-vax insanity.

[Niko]

Not unhappy if you end up being right...

[Dan Gould]

26 minutes ago, Niko said:

Over here, everybody I talk to has become very pessimistic about the possibility of herd immunity or a vaccine (due to the vanishing antibodies thing)

Not to mention anecdotal reports of second infections being worse than the first go round - regarding the possibility or even likelihood that you don't get any long-lasting immunity from an infection.

[ejp626]

1 hour ago, Dan Gould said:

Not to mention anecdotal reports of second infections being worse than the first go round - regarding the possibility or even likelihood that you don't get any long-lasting immunity from an infection.

The other big unknown is if COVID is mutating so rapidly to the point that an effective vaccine can't be found or would only be valid for a season or two (which is essentially the case with the flu).

[Brad]

I’m sure that the pharma companies are or will be working on second and third generation of vaccines, just as they do with flu vaccines. 

[GregK]

22 hours ago, ejp626 said:

The other big unknown is if COVID is mutating so rapidly to the point that an effective vaccine can't be found or would only be valid for a season or two (which is essentially the case with the flu).

This appears to be unlikely. The leading candidates for vaccines currently are focused on the spike protein, which doesn't seem to be mutating much at all. Since this is a RNA virus, it will mutate more than a DNA virus would, but so far the mutations haven't been linked to lethality or COVID19 severity. What is concerning though is how the antibodies produced in some people who have been infected and recovered seem to be fading in just a few months (similar to other coronaviruses). This might mean booster vaccines could be necessary.

[Guy Berger]

1 hour ago, GregK said:

This appears to be unlikely. The leading candidates for vaccines currently are focused on the spike protein, which doesn't seem to be mutating much at all. Since this is a RNA virus, it will mutate more than a DNA virus would, but so far the mutations haven't been linked to lethality or COVID19 severity. What is concerning though is how the antibodies produced in some people who have been infected and recovered seem to be fading in just a few months (similar to other coronaviruses). This might mean booster vaccines could be necessary.

If true, that's not the end of the world, though it would generate long run compliance problems... we know flu vaccine uptake is not great.