COVID-19 2.0: No Politics edition

[clifford_thornton]

1 hour ago, duaneiac said:

I found a site online which tells you how to make your own hydroxychloroquine.  I figured it's worth a shot, but so far all I have is the first ingredient:

 

[Brad]

A further article on cats from one of the Times’ science writers.

A Tiger Is Slightly Sick With the Coronavirus. Your Cats Are Probably OK.

[GA Russell]

Uh oh.  The doctors now think the re-infection rate is much higher than they had believed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-cases-pass-14-million-scientists-discover-reinfection-risk-patients-much

(NB:  This website allows real jerks to post comments.)

[JSngry]

1 hour ago, GA Russell said:

Uh oh.  The doctors now think the re-infection rate is much higher than they had believed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-cases-pass-14-million-scientists-discover-reinfection-risk-patients-much

(NB:  This website allows real jerks to post comments.)

Not disputing the validity of the worry, but I don't see any indication that it is "the doctors" talking about this. It's one link to one source (the South China Morning Post) and it's preliminary findings that may or may not be worrying.

Since any news or data coming out of China including Hong Kong) is best never met with a blind acceptance, here's a look at the SCMP: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/south-china-morning-post/

Doesn't seem to be fringe-y or anything. But still,  I'd use caution when attributing things about this situation to "the doctors", ok?

In that spirit, here's a direct link ti the SCMP article:  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

[felser]

[JSngry]

Think I'll shop Office Depot: https://www.axios.com/staples-refuse-pay-landlords-rent-april-coronavirus-11dd7832-4ba6-4afa-9331-3885cae7ce23.html?stream=future&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_business

[Brad]

2 hours ago, JSngry said:

Think I'll shop Office Depot: https://www.axios.com/staples-refuse-pay-landlords-rent-april-coronavirus-11dd7832-4ba6-4afa-9331-3885cae7ce23.html?stream=future&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_business

I’d like to hear their reason for not paying any rent. I’d be curious if they’re relying on the force  majeure clause in the lease. Force majeure clauses are a hot topic right now. 

[Coda]

I know most people are saturated by the covid statistics found about everywhere.  I am actively researching the impact of the virus on business so I find myself searching for new sources of information.  Here's another well crafted report with a lot of detail https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#are-deaths-increasing-at-different-rates-in-different-countries

If you're in the US and want to see projected peaks by state:  https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/07/825479416/new-yorks-coronavirus-deaths-may-level-off-soon-when-might-your-state-s-peak

With all these types of reports it's important to realize that there isn't a lot of data available to draw conclusions.   There is a lot of data bias in current models.

[Dan Gould]

There was so much talk about the need for ventilators and then I heard reports about 20-30% of ventilated COVID victims even surviving. Now it might be the case that ventilators just aren't the answer in the first place:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

If the iconoclasts are right, putting coronavirus patients on ventilators could be of little benefit to many and even harmful to some.

What’s driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they’re not gasping for air, their hearts aren’t racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of oxygen.

That is making critical care physicians suspect that blood levels of oxygen, which for decades have driven decisions about breathing support for patients with pneumonia and acute respiratory distress, might be misleading them about how to care for those with Covid-19. In particular, more and more are concerned about the use of intubation and mechanical ventilators. They argue that more patients could receive simpler, noninvasive respiratory support, such as the breathing masks used in sleep apnea, at least to start with and maybe for the duration of the illness.

[Guy Berger]

On 4/8/2020 at 6:53 AM, JSngry said:

Not disputing the validity of the worry, but I don't see any indication that it is "the doctors" talking about this. It's one link to one source (the South China Morning Post) and it's preliminary findings that may or may not be worrying.

Since any news or data coming out of China including Hong Kong) is best never met with a blind acceptance, here's a look at the SCMP: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/south-china-morning-post/

Doesn't seem to be fringe-y or anything. But still,  I'd use caution when attributing things about this situation to "the doctors", ok?

In that spirit, here's a direct link ti the SCMP article:  https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

ZeroHedge is a notorious conspiracy theory site.  I recommend avoiding it.

SCMP is actually a high quality newspaper, but this specific story seems somewhat sensationalist... the research underlying the article is much more cautious and doesn't draw such a strong conclusion.

The reinfection stories are somewhat worrisome and worth investigating, but it's still not clear how many of these are "true" reinfections vs false positives/negatives in COVID tests.

One thing that seems likely is immunity to COVID is unlikely to last a lifetime - if other coronaviruses are any indication, it will wear off after a few years.  So any vaccination would probably need to be like the flu vaccine (taken regularly and tweaked for strain).

4 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

There was so much talk about the need for ventilators and then I heard reports about 20-30% of ventilated COVID victims even surviving. Now it might be the case that ventilators just aren't the answer in the first place:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-overused-for-covid-19/

If the iconoclasts are right, putting coronavirus patients on ventilators could be of little benefit to many and even harmful to some.

What’s driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they’re not gasping for air, their hearts aren’t racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of oxygen.

That is making critical care physicians suspect that blood levels of oxygen, which for decades have driven decisions about breathing support for patients with pneumonia and acute respiratory distress, might be misleading them about how to care for those with Covid-19. In particular, more and more are concerned about the use of intubation and mechanical ventilators. They argue that more patients could receive simpler, noninvasive respiratory support, such as the breathing masks used in sleep apnea, at least to start with and maybe for the duration of the illness.

I think this is indicative of how much we are "learning on the fly" about this illness, and one reason why slowing the spread of the illness is important - buying time for us to learn how to treat this illness better.  

[felser]

18 minutes ago, Guy Berger said:

I think this is indicative of how much we are "learning on the fly" about this illness, and one reason why slowing the spread of the illness is important - buying time for us to learn how to treat this illness better.  

Amen to that.

[page]

Hi guys/galls,
just wanted to say and wave "hi" to you all from the isolation here!
Wishing you the best of health and happiness for you and all of your loved ones!
Take care,
page

[Guy Berger]

Re reinfection, this is worth reading.

[sonnymax]

Jarring photo, mass graves of unclaimed bodies in NYC.

[duaneiac]

23 hours ago, page said:

Hi guys/galls,
just wanted to say and wave "hi" to you all from the isolation here!
Wishing you the best of health and happiness for you and all of your loved ones!
Take care,
page

Hi page!  It seems like a long time since we have heard from you, so it's great to see you around here again.  I hope all is well with you and your friends/family.

[felser]

Sounds so good, but 

[Soulstation1]

The deli guy must have touched/adjusted his mask 5 times with the same hand/glove he touched my deli meat 

[jazzbo]

On 4/9/2020 at 1:50 PM, page said:

Hi guys/galls,
just wanted to say and wave "hi" to you all from the isolation here!
Wishing you the best of health and happiness for you and all of your loved ones!
Take care,
page

Wishing you the best right back at you page. ALL the best. Stay healthy and safe!

[JSngry]

4 hours ago, bresna said:

BTW - did any of you know that having a cortisone shot in the last 3 months puts you at a higher risk of death from COVID-19? I didn't know that until one of my Facebook friends mentioned it. I

Did they cite any sources for this claim? Looking on the Instanets right now and not seeing anything to confirm that.

[Brad]

1 hour ago, JSngry said:

Did they cite any sources for this claim? Looking on the Instanets right now and not seeing anything to confirm that.

Cortisone is an anti inflammatory and anti inflammatories, particularly NSAIDs (non steroidal anti inflammatory drugs) are thought to exacerbate the effects of the virus. I have avoided all pain relievers other than Tylenol. 

[JSngry]

It seems that there's still not a clear/conclusive view on that:

https://www.idse.net/Covid-19/Article/03-20/New-Guidelines-Released-for-Managing-COVID-19-Patients/57722

on the one hand:

“Traditionally, there’s been an association between using systemic corticosteroids and higher risk of death in patients with viral pneumonia, but this association is based on observational studies, which may be confounded by the fact that sicker patients tend to receive corticosteroids,” Dr. Alhazzani explained. “Very limited data” from COVID-19 patients, as well as data from SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) also indicate treatment with systemic corticosteroids may cause harm.

“Because of the limitations of the data and because we’re not sure what the effect of systemic steroid treatment is in COVID-19 patients, we issued a weak recommendation not to use systemic corticosteroids in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia,” he said.

but on the other hand:

At the same time, there is a “decent” amount of indirect evidence from randomized controlled trials in the general critically ill population with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) that has consistently shown use of systemic corticosteroids reduces the duration of mechanical ventilation and death.

“In addition, a recent observational study from China suggested that the use of corticosteroids may reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients with ARDS, so we issued a weak recommendation that in those with moderate to severe ARDS and COVID-19, you might consider using systemic corticosteroids,” Dr. Alhazzani said.

I would certainly err on the side of caution, if I had a choice!

[Brad]

That is what I have done. For me, acetaminophen (Tylenol) does very little; I find aspirin more effective. However, I’m trying to avoid aspirin where I possibly can. 

[Dan Gould]

High profile deaths of young sheriff’s deputies and health care workers in South Florida show the infectious virus can strike seemingly healthy adults. Yet the data now reveals that in 86% of cases where COVID-19 took the life of someone under 60 in Broward and Dade, that person also had a chronic disease like obesity, HIV, cancer or asthma.

 

...

About 87% of people killed by COVID-19 in Broward and about 95% in Miami-Dade were already battling other chronic diseases. In Palm Beach County, that data was not available, but the medical examiner’s office estimated that a similar percentage of its coronavirus victims also suffered from other illnesses.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-who-is-it-killing-and-why-20200411-hmr5khrhfzgvbkmlwgfpo5d5nm-story.html

 

[Guy Berger]

Grim evidence that the official COVID death count is a significant undercount https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html

[medjuck]

17 hours ago, Dan Gould said:

High profile deaths of young sheriff’s deputies and health care workers in South Florida show the infectious virus can strike seemingly healthy adults. Yet the data now reveals that in 86% of cases where COVID-19 took the life of someone under 60 in Broward and Dade, that person also had a chronic disease like obesity, HIV, cancer or asthma.

 

 

Since about 40% of Americans are obese (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States), if  you add in the other three chronic illness listed here you're talking about half the country.