2018-19 Hot Stove League

[JSngry]

My dad was ecstatic when he came over to the Astros from the Braves. "He's a good Lutheran boy!" he said on more than one occasion.

[Soulstation1]

Tribe better not trade Kluber 

[ghost of miles]

My prediction, and one about which I’m not happy: Manny Machado will sign with the Yankees, and Bryce Harper will sign with the Dodgers (though I’m not not ruling out the Cubs landing him instead). I think that Harper really wants to be a Yankee, but gee, we’ve already got Brett Gardner and Jacobi Ellsbury, so no need for another outfielder! I feel like strangling Hal Steinbrenner (and Cashman to some extent as well). I remember how well our “overstocked outfield” did last year when Aaron Judge was on the DL for two months and Stanton was having hamstring issues. That’s why we ended up trading for Andrew McCutchen. I guess we’re also content to hope that Luke Voit’s season-end surge at age 27 wasn’t a fluke or that the ever-promising Greg Bird will finally take flight. But hey, at least our payroll will end up below Boston’s right? And our season record as well, no doubt.

[JSngry]

15 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

I feel like strangling Hal Steinbrenner (and Cashman to some extent as well).

[Dave James]

 

1 hour ago, ghost of miles said:

"My prediction, and one about which I’m not happy: Manny Machado will sign with the Yankees, and Bryce Harper will sign with the Dodgers."  

David,

I'd rather see the the Yanks sign Harper.  He can play first base or the outfield.  Say no to Machado.  I think he's a cancer.  What I can't figure out is why the Cashman is so anxious to move Anduhar.  The kid is only 23, he can hit, hit for power and plays adequate, if not inspired defense.  Not to mention that he was  runner-up for AL ROY.  I'd move Gleyber Torres to SS, sign an FA or go with Raphael Torres at second, leave Anduhar at third and wait for Didi to get  better.  I don't think Bird will ever work out as a hitter and it's rolling a pretty big pair of dice to assume Luke Voit will replicate his performance at the end of last season. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by Dave James

[ghost of miles]

11 hours ago, Dave James said:

 

David,

I'd rather see the the Yanks sign Harper.  He can play first base or the outfield.  Say no to Machado.  I think he's a cancer.  What I can't figure out is why the Cashman is so anxious to move Anduhar.  The kid is only 23, he can hit, hit for power and plays adequate, if not inspired defense.  Not to mention that he was  runner-up for AL ROY.  I'd move Gleyber Torres to SS, sign an FA or go with Raphael Torres at second, leave Anduhar at third and wait for Didi to get  better.  I don't think Bird will ever work out as a hitter and it's rolling a pretty big pair of dice to assume Luke Voit will replicate his performance at the end of last season. 

Dave, I agree with every single thing you wrote—maybe most emphatically the apparent willingness to consider Andujar as trade bait. But also yes re Harper vs Machado.

[paul secor]

$30 million (or more) for ten years for a guy who's driven in 100 runs once in seven years, and who struck out 169 times last year?
That's a sucker's contract for the team that's paying it.
The Yanks already have one guy who struck out 211 times last year (Stanton) and another who struck out 152 times (Judge). They don't need another one of those.

[soulpope]

6 minutes ago, paul secor said:

$30 million (or more) for ten years for a guy who's driven in 100 runs once in seven years, and who struck out 169 times last year?
That's a sucker's contract for the team that's paying it.
The Yanks already have one guy who struck out 211 times last year (Stanton) and another who struck out 152 times (Judge). They don't need another one of those.

Would prefer the Yankees staying away from both Machado and Harper .... these monster contracts seem nowadays out of time ....

[T.D.]

Big-name baseball free agency is one of the best illustrations of the behavioral economics concept of "The Winner's Curse".

I can't fathom how Harper's career stats justify the numbers being quoted (yeah, Scott Boras is his agent, but still), and Machado seems to have deal-breaking character flaws. And even in the best case, the clubs will be eating serious money in the late years of the contracts.

I should do a post-mortem analysis of the Albert Pujols contract...too lazy, but I suspect he's been on the high end of value among premium free agent signings. Still, his pay of $28, $29 and $30 million for 2019 through 2021 is far from appetizing. On the plus side, his sterling character has never been in question (unlike Machado).

Edited December 27, 2018 by T.D.

[ghost of miles]

Harper and Machado are both 26–much younger than Pujols when he signed his contract. Even a ten-year contract still gives you 5-6 years of them in their prime. Harper has a great OBP and a short rightfield porch to aim for at Yankee Stadium. He’d also be a lefty bat in a lineup that’s heavily stacked with righties. But we’ll most likely not sign him because we’re still paying Jacobi Ellsbury $22 million a year  for two more years (now *that* was a terrible signing, partly because Ellsbury was already in his 30s when the contract began) and because Yankee management seems infatuated with Machado. I don’t want A-Rod II: Machado Boogaloo for the next 8-10 years.

[soulpope]

36 minutes ago, ghost of miles said:

Harper and Machado are both 26–much younger than Pujols when he signed his contract. Even a ten-year contract still gives you 5-6 years of them in their prime. Harper has a great OBP and a short rightfield porch to aim for at Yankee Stadium. He’d also be a lefty bat in a lineup that’s heavily stacked with righties. 

Yep .... still the price is steep ....

[Dave James]

The latest: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2812632-mlb-rumors-bryce-harper-manny-machado-prefer-yankees-over-phillies?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=mlb

[Dan Gould]

Aren't the Dodgers the team to beat for Harper since they unloaded Puig? Seems obvious a first step toward adding the best player on the market.

Here's hoping everybody has a happy New Year with Machado in Philly and Harper in LA (or Chicago)!

[paul secor]

3 hours ago, Dave James said:

The latest: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2812632-mlb-rumors-bryce-harper-manny-machado-prefer-yankees-over-phillies?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=mlb

The upside for Phillies fans is owner John Middleton doesn't sound like he's going to lose out on Harper or Machado by being outbid.

"We're going into this expecting to spend money," Middleton told USA Today's Bob Nightengale in November. "And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it."

OK - Let the Phillies be stupid about this one.

[Brad]

Yankees have apparently signed Troy Tulowitski. I wonder if that spells the end of the Machado hunt. 

[paul secor]

Hope so.

[Dave James]

I don't think this says much about Machado.  Assuming he can stay healthy, Tulowitski is the bridge at shortstop between opening day and the return of Didi Gregorios. The Yankees have always been interested in Machado as a third baseman.  The "tell" here is what they do with Andujar.   

[Brad]

48 minutes ago, Dave James said:

I don't think this says much about Machado.  Assuming he can stay healthy, Tulowitski is the bridge at shortstop between opening day and the return of Didi Gregorios. The Yankees have always been interested in Machado as a third baseman.  The "tell" here is what they do with Andujar.   

Hasn’t Machado insisted on wanting to play SS?

[Dave James]

5 minutes ago, Brad said:

Hasn’t Machado insisted on wanting to play SS?

I have not heard that directly accredited to Machado, but if he wants to sign with New York, I think he'll have to do it their way.  I don't think the tail will wind up wagging the dog.

[soulpope]

3 hours ago, Brad said:

Yankees have apparently signed Troy Tulowitski. I wonder if that spells the end of the Machado hunt. 

Would be appreciated .... 

[Dan Gould]

No one is saying this means they are out of the running for Machado, at all. Only that they couldn't pass up Tulo at the league minimum.  Which is good, because I think he pretty much is .... league minimum at this point.

[Soulstation1]

Yanks only have to pay $500K for Tulo

 

[Brad]

Why the Baseball World is Waiting on Manny and Bryce

[Dan Gould]

Knock David Robertson off the board and out of the AL. He signed with the Phillies.

[soulpope]

Influencer ? .... Hopefully not ....

https://sports.yahoo.com/will-bryce-harper-manny-machado-gets-10-year-deals-depends-ask-005226939.html