almost every new storm gets the 'greatest danger' hype

[mjzee]

This is beginning to sound like this thread should be moved to the "Politics" forum.

[.:.impossible]

Or the double-private, post count qualified, invitation only, and quorum vote approval, elite members only Conspiracies Forum.

[Aggie87]

Worried for my wife and her kids, who live east of Philly in NJ. That area is bracing for the worst. With so many trees expected to topple and bring down power lines, it's going to take a while to get electricity back up. And if it's as cold as expected with the snow/front, it could be tough for folks to stay warm w/o electricity.

And I agree with mjzee, the mass transit systems may be down for a while which will cause chaos.

[Christiern]

Considering what is happening on the East Coast, this is a very stupid thread with an even dumber header. Even if you don't live in the impact area, as I do, you will probably be affected. This could have a serious impact on the election, for many reasons, one of them being the likelihood of an extended period without power in some areas. That, flooding, and other factor will change the vote. Then, too, if Obama does it right and takes full charge, he will take the spotlight from Romney.

[clifford_thornton]

Hard for me to think of it as the coming of the apocalypse as some people (my girlfriend included) are claiming.

[Larry Kart]

Considering what is happening on the East Coast, this is a very stupid thread with an even dumber header. Even if you don't live in the impact area, as I do, you will probably be affected. This could have a serious impact on the election, for many reasons, one of them being the likelihood of an extended period without power in some areas. That, flooding, and other factor will change the vote. Then, too, if Obama does it right and takes full charge, he will take the spotlight from Romney.

Couldn't agree more, Chris -- stupid and dumb.

[Tom 1960]

Well I guess there it makes no sense on further commenting on this thread. Maybe I should just work on Tuesday and ignore all the shit that's going on around me outside.

[The Magnificent Goldberg]

Well I guess there it makes no sense on further commenting on this thread. Maybe I should just work on Tuesday and ignore all the shit that's going on around me outside.

Don't let other people - even us - tell you what to do; do what seems sensible to YOU.

MG

[clifford_thornton]

Considering what is happening on the East Coast, this is a very stupid thread with an even dumber header. Even if you don't live in the impact area, as I do, you will probably be affected. This could have a serious impact on the election, for many reasons, one of them being the likelihood of an extended period without power in some areas. That, flooding, and other factor will change the vote. Then, too, if Obama does it right and takes full charge, he will take the spotlight from Romney.

Couldn't agree more, Chris -- stupid and dumb.

Point taken regarding the timing, and people should be careful. But in terms of the resilience and preparedness of coastal cities and metropolises, I feel like we should weather this storm okay.

[mjzee]

Considering what is happening on the East Coast, this is a very stupid thread with an even dumber header. Even if you don't live in the impact area, as I do, you will probably be affected. This could have a serious impact on the election, for many reasons, one of them being the likelihood of an extended period without power in some areas. That, flooding, and other factor will change the vote. Then, too, if Obama does it right and takes full charge, he will take the spotlight from Romney.

Couldn't agree more, Chris -- stupid and dumb.

Point taken regarding the timing, and people should be careful. But in terms of the resilience and preparedness of coastal cities and metropolises, I feel like we should weather this storm okay.

Also, I do understand the original point of this thread - I've lived through many "perfect storms" that turned out to be not much at all. Weather forecasting is, after all, an imperfect art, and it is better to be safe than sorry. Having said all that, I hope this storm will be on the mild side, but it doesn't look like that'll be the case.

[JSngry]

So....the population density - and all the comes from that - that springs up from and extends out from NYC does give this potential natural disaster potentially national/international consequences, and it is stupid and dumb to point that out?

Like it would be getting - or justifying - the same amount of coverage if it was heading towards a sparsely populated area of the Mexican coastline?

And there's no difference between sane, sensible, and sober ongoing coverage of a meteorological event of potentially significant impact and OHMYGODWE'REALLGOINGTODIEBWWWAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! ?

This is all Merle Haggard's fault. All of it. ?

People done lost their minds, I swear they have.

Now, let's just keep an eye on those ballot boxes, ok? Just because.

[Guy Berger]

from a new york friend---"This is a media circus" and a n.y. bassist " I tell u, this is a man controlled hurricane. We have the technology to do it. This has to do with the election I bet."

I'm surprised neither of them pointed out that we're all brains in vats, anyway.

[Guy Berger]

Also, I do understand the original point of this thread - I've lived through many "perfect storms" that turned out to be not much at all. Weather forecasting is, after all, an imperfect art, and it is better to be safe than sorry. Having said all that, I hope this storm will be on the mild side, but it doesn't look like that'll be the case.

I made this point earlier, but worth repeating. Let's say you have a storm that has 40% chance of doing $10 million in damage and killing 1 person, 30% change of doing $100 million in damage and killing 10 people, 20% of doing $1 billion damage and killing 100 people, and 10% change of doing $10 billion in damage and killing 1000 people, a good weather forecaster should place significant emphasis on the 10% catastrophe scenario even though there's a 70% chance that it will be only a moderate disaster.

This is important to understanding why so many people in the aftermath of a such a storm think "overhype." In fact, 9 out of 10 storms will be milder than the worst-case scenario. Storms ARE "overhyped", but for sound reasons.

(The specific numbers here are made up, but the logic is not.)

[JSngry]

Is the choice only between overhyping and underhyping?

[.:.impossible]

It is absolutely impossible to predict the degree and extent of destruction that a hurricane or tropical storm can bring. It's part of being a resident of Coastal NC. Category determines whether you need to board your windows or not. If you live in the NW quadrant of the storm as it makes landfall, the sheer will be much more intense. The backside of the storm is generally more merciful. Gusts are more sustained. If the storm is moving slowly, rainfall amounts will be high.

Where we are, rainfall plus wind means fallen trees, roof damaged, flooding (high water table, near sea level), downed power lines, etc.

Urban areas are less prone to fallen trees, but will typically have poor drainage due to the large amount of impervious surfaces and will see flooding (rainfall plus storm surge in many cases).

Y'all probably already know all of this because of the large amount of hurricane coverage and preparedness programming in the last decade.

My advice is use common sense. If you have the means to make your situation safer, more convenient, more comfortable, do so. If the storm blows over, be thankful.

This storm was 300 miles away at its closest point. It rained steadily for a couple of days and we had moderate winds 20-40mph, 10-12ft waves and extensive coastal erosion.

This is a large storm. Not a particularly strong hurricane.

My folks just told me it is now snowing in Richmond VA. This isn't a typical hurricane. I'm not suggesting you should fear for your life, but I am suggesting that things could get hairy, and you could be slightly uncomfortable for days afterward.

Take your precautions. Help those that couldn't.

[JSngry]

Is the choice only between overhyping and underhyping?

It is absolutely impossible to predict the degree and extent of destruction that a hurricane or tropical storm can bring. It's part of being a resident of Coastal NC. Category determines whether you need to board your windows or not. If you live in the NW quadrant of the storm as it makes landfall, the sheer will be much more intense. The backside of the storm is generally more merciful. Gusts are more sustained. If the storm is moving slowly, rainfall amounts will be high.

Where we are, rainfall plus wind means fallen trees, roof damaged, flooding (high water table, near sea level), downed power lines, etc.

Urban areas are less prone to fallen trees, but will typically have poor drainage due to the large amount of impervious surfaces and will see flooding (rainfall plus storm surge in many cases).

Y'all probably already know all of this because of the large amount of hurricane coverage and preparedness programming in the last decade.

My advice is use common sense. If you have the means to make your situation safer, more convenient, more comfortable, do so. If the storm blows over, be thankful.

This storm was 300 miles away at its closest point. It rained steadily for a couple of days and we had moderate winds 20-40mph, 10-12ft waves and extensive coastal erosion.

This is a large storm. Not a particularly strong hurricane.

My folks just told me it is now snowing in Richmond VA. This isn't a typical hurricane. I'm not suggesting you should fear for your life, but I am suggesting that things could get hairy, and you could be slightly uncomfortable for days afterward.

Take your precautions. Help those that couldn't.

Asked and answered. Perfect!

[kinuta]

I've never experienced a hurricane and wouldn't want to. We get a fair number of typhoons and they are bad enough.

A lot of houses here have sliding metal storm windows that stop flying branches, rubbish bins and assorted flotsam that gets hurled about.

Hope you guys in the storm path are all right.

[alocispepraluger102]

So....the population density - and all the comes from that - that springs up from and extends out from NYC does give this potential natural disaster potentially national/international consequences, and it is stupid and dumb to point that out?

Like it would be getting - or justifying - the same amount of coverage if it was heading towards a sparsely populated area of the Mexican coastline?

And there's no difference between sane, sensible, and sober ongoing coverage of a meteorological event of potentially significant impact and OHMYGODWE'REALLGOINGTODIEBWWWAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! ?

This is all Merle Haggard's fault. All of it. ?

People done lost their minds, I swear they have.

Now, let's just keep an eye on those ballot boxes, ok? Just because.

spikie, onstage, in nyc just mentioned, under his breath, that this is just one more step toward a police state.

[BERIGAN]

From what I have been able to gather that make this storm different, is the size(the technical term I believe is fuckin' huge!) that its both tropical and subtropical(like a winter nor'easter, though if you check that link, they don't think it is anything but tropical, yet the Weather Channel just said in the last hour or so that it looked like it was getting more subtropical, but that wasn't really important)

Plus there's a full moon and that the brunt of the storm will likely come in at high tide...that is a big deal.

Hell, here in the ATL, the sustained Wind was unbelievable last night, and we are far, far away from the storm...

Edited October 29, 2012 by BERIGAN

[RDK]

Is the choice only between overhyping and underhyping?

IMO, there's no such thing as overhyping mother nature. The forecasters are in a damned if they do/don't position. Better to overhype and have everyone be prepared, but there's always some fool who thinks that he can weather it out... and often ends up needing to be rescued.

[Dan Gould]

I've never experienced a hurricane and wouldn't want to. We get a fair number of typhoons and they are bad enough.

Newsflash: Typhoons are tropical cyclones AKA "hurricanes".

[alocispepraluger102]

‎2:30 AM - not one drop of rain. No wind. All of New York could have been open, restaurants, clubs, subways. People could have gone to work. This city is locked down. Ask yourself why..:?

[Dan Gould]

‎2:30 AM - not one drop of rain. No wind. All of New York could have been open, restaurants, clubs, subways. People could have gone to work. This city is locked down. Ask yourself why..:?

You are really being a bleeping moron, and that's without your asinine electoral theories. WAIT FOR IT ALOC.

Beyond the fact that a strong Cat 1 Hurricane is hardly ever seen, this one isn't going to make landfall and peter out. It is meeting up with a strong winter storm system which is going to feed more energy into it. The wind field is gigantic and is only going to get bigger and worse.

Even if your precious NYC doesn't sustain a direct hit, it will get more than it ever wanted from this storm.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Dan Gould

[alocispepraluger102]

nyc from the 51st floor of nyt building 'live' cam

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/28/nyregion/nyt-webcam.html

Edited October 29, 2012 by alocispepraluger102

[Christiern]

The view from Mansfield is very misleading. So, it would appear, is your view of the very near future (a few hours). As I look down on Central Park, things are anything but normal. No wind? Did your live cam also show the pigs that periodically fly through the canyons of Manhattan?