almost every new storm gets the 'greatest danger' hype

[alocispepraluger102]

i think this is called getting media ratings and eyeballs.

Edited October 26, 2012 by alocispepraluger102

[golfcrazy1984]

I understand your thought, but this one looks forcast to make landfall in New Jersey, and not just churn off shore. I hope the damage is minimal along the East Coast, but it's looking like forecasters fears might come true.

[Tom 1960]

For those outside the U.S. unfamiliar with this storm dubbed "Frankenstorm":

Frankenstorm

Anyone making preparations for what looks to be a real doosy of a storm? I'm scheduled to be off from work on Tuesday although the boss wants me to work. I don't think so.

[JSngry]

Think it could do enough damage to interfere with the election?

[Guy Berger]

I've had difficulty determining why this is going to be a particularly horrendous storm. In NYC it looks like it will pound us with ridiculous amounts of rain and some intense, though most likely sub-hurricane force winds. I Obviously people who are in areas vulnerable to flooding are in much bigger danger (lots of leaves clogging gutters given the time of year). Power could get knocked out in lots of places.

My perspective as an economic forecaster... as human beings we tend to focus on the mean/median scenario, and that's what forecasters usually emphasize. Unfortunately, we have a "nonlinear loss function" here - the extra damage if things turn out (a lot) worse than expected will be (many) orders of magnitude worse than if they turn out in line with the most likely scenario. So it makes a lot of sense to warn people about bad, or REALLY bad, scenarios, even if relatively unlikely.

[paul secor]

On one hand, the media, for obvious self serving reasons, will milk a storm like this one for all it's worth. On the other hand, it's better for people to be overprepared, rather than underprepared or unprepared.

[alocispepraluger102]

I've had difficulty determining why this is going to be a particularly horrendous storm. In NYC it looks like it will pound us with ridiculous amounts of rain and some intense, though most likely sub-hurricane force winds. I Obviously people who are in areas vulnerable to flooding are in much bigger danger (lots of leaves clogging gutters given the time of year). Power could get knocked out in lots of places.

My perspective as an economic forecaster... as human beings we tend to focus on the mean/median scenario, and that's what forecasters usually emphasize. Unfortunately, we have a "nonlinear loss function" here - the extra damage if things turn out (a lot) worse than expected will be (many) orders of magnitude worse than if they turn out in line with the most likely scenario. So it makes a lot of sense to warn people about bad, or REALLY bad, scenarios, even if relatively unlikely.

NYC is the main reason.

[Guy Berger]

On one hand, the media, for obvious self serving reasons, will milk a storm like this one for all it's worth. On the other hand, it's better for people to be overprepared, rather than underprepared or unprepared.

Yes, no doubt. Disaster porn.

[.:.impossible]

Never underestimate a hurricane. Especially when it's just a tropical storm.

[GA Russell]

When you think about it, the strength of a hurricane is rarely important. What's important is where it lands.

The northeast is unaccustomed to hurricanes and tornadoes, so the damage and inconvenience in unprepared populated areas is likely to be great.

[Neal Pomea]

Think it could do enough damage to interfere with the election?

The lines for early voting today in Maryland were unbelievably long, so yes, I think this was affected by people worrying about power outages next week.

[JETman]

I've had difficulty determining why this is going to be a particularly horrendous storm. In NYC it looks like it will pound us with ridiculous amounts of rain and some intense, though most likely sub-hurricane force winds. I Obviously people who are in areas vulnerable to flooding are in much bigger danger (lots of leaves clogging gutters given the time of year). Power could get knocked out in lots of places.

My perspective as an economic forecaster... as human beings we tend to focus on the mean/median scenario, and that's what forecasters usually emphasize. Unfortunately, we have a "nonlinear loss function" here - the extra damage if things turn out (a lot) worse than expected will be (many) orders of magnitude worse than if they turn out in line with the most likely scenario. So it makes a lot of sense to warn people about bad, or REALLY bad, scenarios, even if relatively unlikely.

NYC is the main reason.

Yeah, that's it

Think about this -- w/o NYC, you'd likely be listening to Merle Haggard today.

[Aggie87]

When you think about it, the strength of a hurricane is rarely important. What's important is where it lands.

The northeast is unaccustomed to hurricanes and tornadoes, so the damage and inconvenience in unprepared populated areas is likely to be great.

Living on the Texas coast, I care about the strength of a hurricane! Much rather have a miminal storm directly hit than a major one.

[JSngry]

Think about this -- w/o NYC, you'd likely be listening to Merle Haggard today.

You might be. I'd for sure have other options. Always have, among them Merle Haggard.

Which ain't exactly Tommy Tune.

[alocispepraluger102]

Think about this -- w/o NYC, you'd likely be listening to Merle Haggard today.

You might be. I'd for sure have other options. Always have, among them Merle Haggard.

Which ain't exactly Tommy Tune.

actually, i bought 2 merle haggard vinyls yesterday.

[JSngry]

I think the man has music confused with the music business.

Common enough error, that one.

[mjzee]

You don't want to live through one of those. Where we used to live in Connecticut, it was heavily wooded, and all the utility lines (power, cable, etc) were all above ground. Any bad storm would knock out power for days, plus leave live power lines strewn around the roads. Driving will be treacherous this time of year, with all the leaves on the ground now slippery with rain. Plus this is a region heavily dependent on mass transit - downed power lines also mean no commuter trains. So no, this is no fun...let's hope when the storm does land it's on the mild side.

[JETman]

I think the man has music confused with the music business.

Common enough error, that one.

NY envy......common error that one.

Jazz may not have originated here, but anyone of major consequence passed through here at one time or another during his/her development. Funny thing -- most ended up staying.

Blissful ignorance run amok. Most all y'all happily talk about Pres or listen to Monk at the 5 Spot or Trane at the Vanguard. I notice no NY hatred there. You're a hypocrite and full of shit. You can play with words all you want, but when it comes down to it, it's just one huge circle jerk. Go listen to yer Merle Haggard, while I prepare for the storm and rest easy and comfortably with the fact that NYC fostered the growth of the music that we discuss on this board with nary a mention that most of it was and continues to be recorded in and around NYC.

Don't make statements like the one Ohio made. People who live here do suffer through major weather-related consequences, and we expect to suffer through more than our share on this go round. This storm is not getting play solely because NYC will be hit hard. Up here in the northern burbs, most will lose power for several days. That's a reality, and not just some media play for ratings.

Edited October 28, 2012 by JETman

[JSngry]

Ain't no yokel like a big city yokel!

[.:.impossible]

We got off easy this time. Just a mess. Hope everyone else fairs well.

[The Magnificent Goldberg]

Good to hear it. The weather here is consistently shitty; the South Wales Valleys are the rainiest area in Britain. And our valley is windy, which we should have realised from seeing the windfarm accross the other side. We complain to the management, but it never gets any better. Seeing something like this makes you realise that it's not really too bad.

MG

[.:.impossible]

You just never know what the storm will bring.

[alocispepraluger102]

from a new york friend---"This is a media circus" and a n.y. bassist " I tell u, this is a man controlled hurricane. We have the technology to do it. This has to do with the election I bet."

Edited October 28, 2012 by alocispepraluger102

[paul secor]

I've had difficulty determining why this is going to be a particularly horrendous storm. In NYC it looks like it will pound us with ridiculous amounts of rain and some intense, though most likely sub-hurricane force winds. I Obviously people who are in areas vulnerable to flooding are in much bigger danger (lots of leaves clogging gutters given the time of year). Power could get knocked out in lots of places.

My perspective as an economic forecaster... as human beings we tend to focus on the mean/median scenario, and that's what forecasters usually emphasize. Unfortunately, we have a "nonlinear loss function" here - the extra damage if things turn out (a lot) worse than expected will be (many) orders of magnitude worse than if they turn out in line with the most likely scenario. So it makes a lot of sense to warn people about bad, or REALLY bad, scenarios, even if relatively unlikely.

NYC is the main reason.

Yeah, that's it

Think about this -- w/o NYC, you'd likely be listening to Merle Haggard today.

Not to pile on, but I might well listen to Merle today. And if I do, I'll enjoy my listening.

[JSngry]

" I tell u, this is a man controlled hurricane. We have the technology to do it. This has to do with the election I bet."

There was a lot of that (a lot) circulating after Katrina, the storm being man-controlled. Definitely some "eyebrow raising" evidence was presented, but nothing really "convincing", at least not to my mind.

But about the election - if there is chaos to be exploited in terms of ballot-placing, counting, etc., it will definitely be exploited. Count on that, just as sure you could count on a massive land grab after Katrina.

An yeah, smart people plan on finding openings. the nature of the openings makes no difference, and a natural disaster is as good an opening as any. If there's mischief to be made, you can bet that the makers are already in place waiting to for their cue. It may come or it may not, but they're there.