Music 'industry' is in deep s...t.

[Dmitry]

http://www.businessinsider.com/these-charts-explain-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry-2011-2

Looks like downloads really did them in.

[Shawn]

I wouldn't blame downloads for the entire thing. A new generation came along, they all have portable gadgets...and quite a few younger people I've talked to don't want CDs at all, they see them the same way I used to view 8-Tracks. Obsolete and appealing only to the very unhip.

[Free For All]

I wouldn't blame downloads for the entire thing. A new generation came along, they all have portable gadgets...and quite a few younger people I've talked to don't want CDs at all, they see them the same way I used to view 8-Tracks. Obsolete and appealing only to the very unhip.

What's really unhip is that that young people who download exclusively aren't learning anything about the music- personnel, liner notes and album art have gone the way of the dodo (sure, they can look it up online, but I don't think many do). And they only listen to specific tunes, not the whole record. Take a record like Speak No Evil- part of the genius of that side is the way each tune leads to the next. The ordering of the compositions is part of the entire package.

[A Lark Ascending]

What's really unhip is that that young people who download exclusively aren't learning anything about the music- personnel, liner notes and album art have gone the way of the dodo (sure, they can look it up online, but I don't think many do). And they only listen to specific tunes, not the whole record. Take a record like Speak No Evil- part of the genius of that side is the way each tune leads to the next. The ordering of the compositions is part of the entire package.

A fair few assumptions about 'young people' there (they only listen to specific tunes, aren't learning things etc). I imagine music is being 'consumed' differently from the way older people 'consumed' it when there were limited formats and fewer alternatives. But even in the good old days the majority of people I knew owned very few albums and paid only passing attention to liners; it was a hard core of obsessives who were interested enough to want to find the context of the music. I suspect that such a hardcore still exists among 'young people' who will go on looking for that context...though maybe not in the musical areas we like to swim in.

As for the concern about the reluctance to listen to historic albums as a whole, reminds me of those who bewail the passing of the 78 - now with 78s you really got to concentrate over the 3 minute span instead of being able to drift off with a 20 minute LP side (or, still worse, a 79 minute CD)! 'Young people' don't pay the attention they did in the golden 78 era!

It's change, not the end of civilisation as we know it. The music industry has just failed to come to terms with the scale and pace of it and seems to have been overwhelmed. Something new will eventually emerge - but I doubt if genuflecting to the glories of past recordings or formats will be (or should be) a priority.

I choose to spend a lot of time listening to 'old' music and am still wedded to the idea of the album format because that's the context of my listening life. But it doesn't mean an equally valid alternative might not be emerging. And it might be an alternative that does not include us.

Edited February 24, 2011 by A Lark Ascending

[jeffcrom]

As for the concern about the reluctance to listen to historic albums as a whole, reminds me of those who bewail the passing of the 78 - now with 78s you really got to concentrate over the 3 minute span instead of being able to drift off with a 20 minute LP side (or, still worse, a 79 minute CD)! 'Young people' don't pay the attention they did in the golden 78 era!

Wait - is the 78 in trouble? I hadn't heard about this!

[papsrus]

What that chart tells me is that even with digital sales factored in, overall sales are falling off a cliff. Superimposing a chart of overall consumer spending might be useful.

[Dmitry]

What that chart tells me is that even with digital sales factored in, overall sales are falling off a cliff. Superimposing a chart of overall consumer spending might be useful.

What sales?!

Free mp3s are all over the internet.

[Jim Alfredson]

You could look at that chart and come to several conclusions. You could say "Oh man, downloads have killed music sales." Or you could say "Wow, the CD thing was kind of an anomaly, like the dot com boom." Or you could say "There was a recession in the early 80s, when sales dipped, and there's a recession now. People just don't have the money to spend on luxury items like music."

[Dmitry]

The sharp decline in cd sales started around 2000, when the US economy was beginning to explode, and the mp3 players first appeared on the market. Looking at the chard it's obvious that the decline in music sales had very little to do with the decline in the economy, and everything to do with the proliferation of downloads.

[JSngry]

Digital is about being "in motion" all the time. Analog is about "being still". Digital is a jet stream. Analog is a statue.

To successfully convey information today, you gotta keep it fluid & find a way to slip it into the jet stream (using a paper clip if necessary...). Building a statue & then sitting to look at it is not really where the action is today.

[Free For All]

A fair few assumptions about 'young people' there (they only listen to specific tunes, aren't learning things etc).

I'm basing this generalization on my experience with my students (most of whom are jazz majors, so I expect them to be more of the "hard core obsessives" of which you speak). They bring in a recording they've been checking out and I'll ask them who's on bass, drums etc. If they don't know I have them look it up. I think it's important for them to study the details of the music and be able to tell the difference between, say, Elvin Jones/Tony Williams/Billy Higgins/Art Blakey, etc.

As far as listening to an entire record, that's how I discovered many tunes I might not have otherwise. I originally purchased Speak No Evil for the title cut, but then discovered Wildflower and Infant Eyes, which have become favorite tunes from the record.

Yes, the shrinking attention span has become quite an issue, especially as it applies in the area of learning to play, which is a process where improvement is gradual and requires long hours of "shedding". No shortcuts there.

[Dmitry]

Digital is about being "in motion" all the time. Analog is about "being still". Digital is a jet stream. Analog is a statue.

To successfully convey information today, you gotta keep it fluid & find a way to slip it into the jet stream (using a paper clip if necessary...). Building a statue & then sitting to look at it is not really where the action is today.

Heard of a walkman? It's a gadget that appeared around 1980. Just as mobile as an mp3 player, but didn't kill the music industry.

[A Lark Ascending]

...and everything to do with the proliferation of downloads.

Clearly a major factor.

But equally, if not more significant, has been the sophistication of computer games. Albums are not interactive (statues, in Jim S's phrase)!

When a new version of 'Call of Duty' came out last autumn it was the buzz in the school where I teach for weeks. 20 years ago it was a new Oasis album that had the same impact. 40 years ago, a new Led Zeppelin. May be a new Acker Bilk ten years before that!

A colleague of mine even caught her husband sneaking in a copy having gone out to buy it at midnight on the day of release.

Edited February 24, 2011 by A Lark Ascending

[JSngry]

Digital is about being "in motion" all the time. Analog is about "being still". Digital is a jet stream. Analog is a statue.

To successfully convey information today, you gotta keep it fluid & find a way to slip it into the jet stream (using a paper clip if necessary...). Building a statue & then sitting to look at it is not really where the action is today.

Heard of a walkman? It's a gadget that appeared around 1980. Just as mobile as an mp3 player, but didn't kill the music industry.

Exactly my point. The Walkman was a transitional analog device that still required the purchase of analog software (cassettes).

Consumption (hell, life in general) has continued to become more mobile, not less, and you can't even buy cassettes any more.

Remember when cassettes were going to make the LP obsolete? First wave, baby, first wave...

The end result of digital anything is to reduce size and eliminate the need for a rigid/fixed specificity of place. Unless you're a "collector" or a "real fan", the need to buy albums no longer exists. Truthfully, the need to buy anything except hardware no longer exists, and that's only if you're semi-honest.

Paradigm shift, anybody? Or are we still in denial?

Edited February 24, 2011 by JSngry

[medjuck]

Music is fine. The music business is in the crapper. I hear good stuff from different genres all the time, much of it new. I do believe that musicians of all kinds of music are going to have to live with less of a potential for making a lot of money just the way most jazz musicians have always done. I certainly don''t mean to suggest that this is a good thing, but the music survives even if the business doesn't.

[Jim Alfredson]

The sharp decline in cd sales started around 2000, when the US economy was beginning to explode, and the mp3 players first appeared on the market. Looking at the chard it's obvious that the decline in music sales had very little to do with the decline in the economy, and everything to do with the proliferation of downloads.

Obvious to you because that's the simplest explanation. As usual, the truth is a bit dirtier.

That was also when video games started becoming a HUGE industry. Yes, they were popular in the 80s and 90s, but from 2000 to 2007 or so, the industry experience unprecendented, massive growth, and mass appeal (no longer just for nerds) thanks to the proliferation of new, low-cost consoles from newcomers Sony and Microsoft, as well as the old stand-bys Sega and Nintendo.

Blast From The Past, yo!

It's easy to say "digital downloads killed record sales" and certainly that contributes to some part of it, but how many people actually had fast enough internet connections / the technical know-how (it wasn't that easy to get mp3s off the web in the early 2000s) and the wherewithal to lead to such a steep decline in the early part of the 2000s? According to this chart, 80% of US households had dial-up connections in 2001. You ever try to download an mp3 via dial-up?

The facts are much more varied than just "mp3s killed music". There are so many more options for entertainment now days, most of which started coming into fruition in the 2000s, and all of which compete for people's time and money. Yes, there are mp3s. There's also video games, DVR, smart phones, home theaters, Blu-Ray, YouTube, Netflix, etc. etc.

[papsrus]

Lots of information if you follow Dmitry's link. Here's another interesting chart:

[mikeweil]

Another factor might be that everybody can sell their used CDs on the web - I know several people, even classical music collectors, who handle it that way. They're tired of looking at long walls with shelves, would rather hang a painting.

But the new generation doesn't care that much about names. My 14-year daughter knows all about her favourite band, but doesn't care as much for the others.

Let's face it, jazz always way a minority music, and those who wanted in depth information even more so. Most people have problems remembering names ...

[A Lark Ascending]

The music 'industry' is clearly staggering, for all the reasons above.

But I suspect that musicians will find other ways to work round the problems. And, unfortunately, at a later date, another arm of the industry will find a way to colonise them.

Is the current collapse on a scale with the 1929 one that resulted from the combination of the Depression and the arrival of radio? The industry recovered from that.

Or maybe...I hope not, but maybe...this is an even bigger paradigm shift. The point where music ceases to be of interest given the alternatives. My heart says that music is too powerful, too hardwired into humanity to every be abandoned. But....

Edited February 24, 2011 by A Lark Ascending

[Quincy]

It's easy to say "digital downloads killed record sales" and certainly that contributes to some part of it, but how many people actually had fast enough internet connections / the technical know-how (it wasn't that easy to get mp3s off the web in the early 2000s) and the wherewithal to lead to such a steep decline in the early part of the 2000s? According to this chart, 80% of US households had dial-up connections in 2001. You ever try to download an mp3 via dial-up?

They did have burners though and so a lot of people made CD-Rs and sold their official CDs back to the store. And that goosed supply so other people could buy titles used rather than new. So I would say "digital replication" rather than just digital downloading was a major cause.

But you are so right about video games. There's only so much time in a day and many games are so involving.

I wish the chart at the top went back a few years earlier. Mick Jagger said the following (last year I believe):

"...people only made money out of records for a very, very small time. When The Rolling Stones started out, we didn’t make any money out of records because record companies wouldn’t pay you! They didn’t pay anyone!

Then, there was a small period from 1970 to 1997, where people did get paid, and they got paid very handsomely and everyone made money. But now that period has gone.

So if you look at the history of recorded music from 1900 to now, there was a 25 year period where artists did very well, but the rest of the time they didn’t."

I don't know if he's right, but I thought I'd put it out there out there. I suppose he's talking more about the artist end of things though.

Also as far as the chart goes, both in the early '80s and then when CDs first came around were 2 periods were many felt that music overpriced. Regarding the former I recall the Tom Petty Hard Promises cover referring to the jump in price from $8.98 to $9.98 (he fought against it.) The higher price equals about $24 today.

There is so much music available today it almost can't help but be cheaper.

Edited February 24, 2011 by Quincy

[David Ayers]

Music is fine. The music business is in the crapper. I hear good stuff from different genres all the time, much of it new. I do believe that musicians of all kinds of music are going to have to live with less of a potential for making a lot of money just the way most jazz musicians have always done. I certainly don''t mean to suggest that this is a good thing, but the music survives even if the business doesn't.

I have to agree. The music industry used to have a role, now much less so. It's main business is mass distribution of products with a wide market. Anything else is just taking a free ride on that. If that declines a bit, so what. The money for some time has been in playing music live - a few artists maybe make money on recordings, but my guess is those people are doing fine anyway. Recordings for most artists are a calling card, not much more.

[Rooster_Ties]

But you are so right about video games. There's only so much time in a day, and many games are so involving.

And what about Internet porn? -- which wasn't anywhere near as available and ubiquitous on-line 10 years ago and before.

I imagine video games and porn alone take up 4+ hours per day among teen and 20-something males alike, leaving far less time for anything as antiquated as music.

Among kids (anyone much under 30 at this point), attention spans are razor thin, with little patience for music -- which only engages one of the senses (at best).

[Shawn]

It's hilarious, I know some very "INTENSE" anti-download opponents, no tolerance at all for downloading, they have to own the original item. The funny part is they buy 95% of their actual CDs used, either on the internet or at used stores. I've tried to point out to them on countless occasions that buying a used CD doesn't help the artist at all...but they refuse to hear that argument. I tell them, if you really want to help your band, either buy the damn CD new or buy legal downloads.

[Dmitry]

Obvious to you because that's the simplest explanation. As usual, the truth is a bit dirtier.

It doesn't have to be either or. I still maintain that the downloads did most of the dirty work. It's just irrefutable. There were other factors, of course, like you say.

I will miss going to record stores and browsing for hours, picking up new releases, etc. That's what bugs me the most about this whole thing.

Perhaps I am old fashioned, but the actual physical object, like a cd or a record, is important to me; removing the plastic wrapping, picking off the stupid plastic strip on the spine with my fingernail, the smell of the booklet, the sheen of the new disc, you know what I mean.

[JSngry]

I still maintain that the downloads did most of the dirty work.

Downloads could have been made a salable item early on, if "the industry" would have had even a fraction of a clue about what was going on. Instead of stuffing CDs down our throats at the earliest possible minute (if we knew then what we know now, would we have settled for all that early digital crap?) until the very last possible minute and going all hyper-paranoiac about The Evils Of Copying, they could have realized that digital media by nature meant the decentralization of the supply chain and been proactive instead of reactive. All they were interested in was harvesting the profits, not nurturing the technology. They could probably be making a lot more money now than they are.

Oh well!

Edited February 24, 2011 by JSngry