2010-2011 Hot Stove Thread

[JSngry]

  On 12/14/2010 at 6:31 AM, ghost of miles said:

Yes, I saw that Tim Brown tweet via Lone Star Ball (a place of great misery right now, as you can well imagine).

In the few days I've spent reading the posts on that site, I gotta tell ya' - them boys just ain't right.

[Quincy]

Somebody check J.H. to make sure he didn't die with a smile on his face. And what a bunch of noise surrounding this. A massive failing by reporters, Twitter etc. for being so late to sniffing out Philly as being in the mix.

And five years too! And less money! See, factors other than money come into play. Granted, he's still getting a lot money, lots & lots of it, but he could have taken more. Though I did read he's asking for his money in 5 & 10s and he plans to sit in the pile while smoking a cigar because he saw Scrooge McDuck do it.

Nice to see the Phils step up with Jamie Moyer having to sit out a year until his return in 2012. And trust me, he'll be back, so no need to make the 5th in the rotation a permanent thing. Sheeeesh, that's the sick thing. Is the 5th guy in the rotation still Blanton? He's an inning eater who if he returns to 2009 form is probably better than 1/2 the 4ths, never mind the 5ths. And your 4th is Hamels (or Oswalt)? That's crazy.

If Rollins is doing yoga or something positive for that hammy and young Domonic makes some progress, boy, Philly could be one of those 110 win or so kind of teams.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Quincy

[Dave James]

  On 12/14/2010 at 6:12 AM, ghost of miles said:

Dave James: great observation over at PA, that thank GOD the Montero trade to Seattle fell through, if Lee really wanted to go back to Philly all along. We would have given up our top hitting prospect for a half-season rental. Wonder if we'll really go after Greinke now or not (I'll bet the Rangers do). I've read reports that NY is wary of pursuing him, no matter what the outcome of the Lee chase was going to be.

I saw that. There's always a chance that Lee might have liked the Big Apple re-upped with New York, so you can't say definitively that it wouldn't have worked. Also, even as a rental, he might have made the difference between 27 and 28 World Series titles. Still, it does seem like his heart may have been in Philly all along. Their rotation is as good as I've ever seen and I've been following baseball for over 50 years.

For reasons I shared earlier in this thread, I don't see Greinke going to the Yankees. I'm sure Cashman will be under a fair amount of pressure to get back in the game, but I don't see that happening until the 2011 trade deadline. Of course, that's assuming the Yanks are still in the hunt by then.

[JSngry]

  On 12/14/2010 at 6:31 AM, ghost of miles said:

I guess the whole "Lee loved his time in Texas" spiel was, in the end, pretty much a spiel.

Spiel or not, something about the guy just didn't sit 100% right with me..."character" has moral connotations & I mean to make none, but the guy just seemed to be too...."fussy" to feel really at home here.

Bottom line, though - Labor told the Pigs that personal satisfaction matters, that some people cannot be moneyslapped into behoovement, and that no, you can not ultimately get everything you want.

Would that more players would follow suit, and in such a publicly spectacular manner, and that forcing denial on all the pigs becomes a bit of a national pastime in its own right.

[ghost of miles]

Geez, if the reports I'm reading of the Phillies' new estimated payroll are right, they may be in danger of heading into "pig" territory themselves. Heyman, btw, has a new article out that reports very different #s on what Lee was offered by the Wall Street Yankees and the GOP King Cattle Rangers--er, New York and Texas, to the rest of us:

  Quote

Lee reached a preliminary agreement on a $115 million, five-year contract, plus a vesting option for a sixth year. The deal is subject to the 32-year-old left-hander passing a physical.

The Yankees had offered Lee six years at $22 million each, plus an option year for $16 million, for a total of $148 million over seven years. The Rangers' offer was for $120 million over six years, plus an option.

The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner apparently could not bypass the chance to join the Phillies' already stellar pitching staff of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. With Lee, it becomes the most formidable rotation in either league.

So if Heyman's right, the Phillies' offer has the highest annual value, even though it doesn't offer as many years or as much money total, and the Yankees did have the highest total bid after all. If true, that seems a little bit less of an FU to the Rangers. I think this is harder on them than it is on Yankee fans, because (1) Lee actually pitched for them and helped take them to the World Series and (2) Yankee fans have been increasingly convinced over the past week or so that Lee did not want to end up in pinstripes, and were prepared for it (in spite of the "pigs always think they can get what they want" talk here).

Dave James, I sure hope Andy comes back for one last year now. With luck the rotation might still be decent... but lots of room for doubt, even with one more year of Andy, and it's a very big "if" on the Andy front right now. I think I saw a quote from Cashman tonight that indicated renewed pessimism about him coming back (even before the Lee news broke), but we can still hope he does... like I said, I'd just like to see him pitch through a farewell season, if nothing else. One of my fave Andy memories remains his "towel" moment after he came out of Game 5 in the '96 World Series.

Edited December 14, 2010 by ghost of miles

[papsrus]

  On 12/14/2010 at 6:37 AM, Quincy said:

Somebody check J.H. to make sure he didn't die with a smile on his face. And what a bunch of noise surrounding this. A massive failing by reporters, Twitter etc. for being so late to sniffing out Philly as being in the mix.

Yeah. How on earth did Buster Olney and the rest of the New York media miss this?

This seems like the least attractive contract offer dollar-wise (from what has been reported), but the most attractive offer from a competitive standpoint -- as in, un-freakin' real rotation; proven championship team; committed management.

Kind of makes you wonder if there was a wink and a nod from Phillies management about an eventual move back to the City of Brotherly Love back when Lee was shipped off to Seattle.

[ghost of miles]

Papsrus--what say you to the Rays' prospects for 2011? They've lost Crawford and I'm assuming they'll lose Soriano, but the rotation is staying intact, correct? Any other departures or arrivals that look to have an impact?

[papsrus]

  On 12/14/2010 at 7:26 AM, ghost of miles said:

Papsrus--what say you to the Rays' prospects for 2011? They've lost Crawford and I'm assuming they'll lose Soriano, but the rotation is staying intact, correct? Any other departures or arrivals that look to have an impact?

They're searching the bargain bins. They just traded Bartlett to the Padres for pitchers Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos. They're said to be shopping Garza as well, and Shields. Three GMs have apparently inquired about Garza.

Joyce is slotted to take over for Crawford in in left, Zobrist in right. Upton in center. Longoria 3B, Brignac SS, Rodriguez 2B and Johnson 1B should be the infield.

They should be reasonably competitive. They're forever young, so they'll still be fun to watch.

Bigger question is whether Sternberg can get a commitment for a new ballpark here. If not. ... He's clearly not having a whole lot of fun conducting fire sales.

[Brad]

I seem to recall that Lee was upset when he was traded from the Phils so I guess he had good memories. Sometimes being close to home is not the best thing. Plus, he's dealt with the media/fans there before, who, in actuality, may be rougher than NY.

I guess he's in Jim's debtor prison for sure

[PHILLYQ]

Congrats to the Phils for landing the big trophy, what a rotation!!!

[BERIGAN]

Posted 12-14-2007, 07:32 AM

Hey, I know it's 2007 and Cliff Lee's ERA is north of 6 , but I bet in late 2010, he will sign a contract for over 120 mil, and it will be considered a bargain! Mark it on your calenders...well, when you get the 2010 one's.....

[Dan Gould]

The Phils have to be prohibitive favorites now, with three #1s at the top of the rotation, really four when you consider that Hamels would be a number 1 on at least half of the teams in the league.

Lee going to the Phils for less money and fewer years certainly is a refreshing change, and for all of those Yankee fans who don't remember when Maddux spurned them, its got to be a kick in the nads to find out that Mystique and Aura with their endless supplies of dollar bills might be turning into aging tarts without nearly as much appeal as they thought they had.

I think you'll see Texas go hard for Grienke and get him - they've got the talent, and they've also got a lot of young talent in the majors already.

And you heard it here first - the Yankees are going to make a lesser trade for Carlos Zambrano (they did just sign his pitching coach, Rothschild). Zambrano is crazy, and has a crazier contract - I think three years with a makeable option for a fourth year (?) - and he hasn't been the dominant starter he was. But he also straightened himself out last year after that crazy eruption in the dugout, and had an ERA south of 2 for the last 13 starts, I believe.

Man it would be awesome though just to see Zambrano flip out at Jeter and A-Rod for letting a catchable ground ball dribble between their geriatric asses.

On second thought, maybe the Yankees stay far away from Zambrano?

Another option could be a trade for Garza, who is supposedly being shopped. Garza would come in handy against the Sox since he always gives them fits.

But to get back to Lee - this has to stick so deeply in the craw of Yankee fans. Not only to spurn the money and ignore Hank saying that it "behooves him" to join the club, but now the Phils are going to be legit World Series candidates for a long time to come. Even if the Yanks make it there before age starts to really impact the on-field performance, they'll face a very dangerous pitching staff if the Phillies get there too.

[JSngry]

  On 12/14/2010 at 10:37 AM, Brad said:

I guess he's in Jim's debtor prison for sure

Remember, the debt is owed by Mr. Lee in the broadest sense, so if the WS wins come as a result of what happens from him not signing, the debt will be considered paid.

I find it curiously refreshing that the People Who Kill Cows And Harvest Fossil Fuels For a Living actually moneyed up against The Wall Street Gluttoneers. I did not expect that to happen. Nice to know that they will go there if needed, much like knowing that loaded rifle in the closet is not just for appearances' sake.

Also good to know that they weren't willing to use an extra round of ammo to go totally batshit crazy, although they came pretty damn close to it. That money might well come in handy in a few years...

Edited December 14, 2010 by JSngry

[Dan Gould]

Interesting look at the rest of the Philly roster:

Let's not pencil the Phillies into the World Series Just Yet

Almost makes it out as if they are the Giants, great pitchers but at best a spotty offense.

And a classic "we didn't really want him anyway" statement from an "anonymous" Yankee official:

  Quote

“Anybody who would leave $50M on the table obviously doesn’t want to pitch in New York. Thank God we found out in time.”

NYY official: “Anybody who would leave $50M on the table obviously doesn’t want to pitch in New York. Thank God we found out in time.”

— Mark Feinsand (@FeinsandNYDN)

December 14, 2010

My question is, why would Hank go the anonymous route to get off that bon mot? Did Hal tell him he was an asshole for saying it "behooves" Lee to sign with NY?

[Chalupa]

Pinch me.

[Chalupa]

This Lee signing is insane. My fantasy teams were never this good. The only downside to signing him is that now the pressure will be on the Phillies to make it to the WS for the next 3 years. Anything less and their season will be deemed a failure by everyone. Which is kind of unfair in a way because it is such a crap shoot once you get to the playoffs. Oh well I guess it could be worse

[Chalupa]

Philly media outlets are bringing up the story about how the Yank fans treated Mrs.Lee as the deciding factor as to why he didn't sign w/ NY.

Blanton to Red Sox????

http://www.masslive.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/12/report_red_sox_to_acquire_pitc.html

[Dan Gould]

I'd be very surprised if that happened, and the updates make it seem less likely than initially reported. Aside from a certain amount of durability and predictable mediocrity, what does Blanton bring? Surely on their respective best days, he's no Matsuzaka, and I say that as someone who can barely tolerate the guy. And Blanton isn't replacing Beckett or Lackey. So this deal would make sense only if the Sox want to send Mastuzaka away and see Blanton as pitching depth for that move.

And how would Wakefield feel if they created a spot in the rotation and then gave it to Blanton instead?

Color me highly doubtful.

[Brad]

Why would you trade Blanton? Isn't he the number 5 starter or is there someone else?

[Dan Gould]

They need to move Blanton to make Lee's contract more affordable. I think he signed for something like 4/16 million or 3/12 or something. He has some value and a contract they no longer want or need.

[Chalupa]

3/27. Phillies have Kyle Kendrick as their #5. But really w/ that starting 4 they could run Ben Franklin's moldy corpse out there every 5th day and still make the playoffs.

Edited December 14, 2010 by J.H. Deeley

[Dave James]

Two words for Brian Cashman. Yu Darvish.

[Dave James]

Ah, the good old days. Warning: Bad language involved.

[JSngry]

  On 12/14/2010 at 4:27 PM, Dave James said:

Ah, the good old days. Warning: Bad language involved.

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=kl-4FSRYagc

Different sport, different occupation, different gender, but...YEAH! :g

The Little Ball Of Hate fears NObody!!!!

[BERIGAN]

  On 12/14/2010 at 1:46 PM, Dan Gould said:

Interesting look at the rest of the Philly roster:

Let's not pencil the Phillies into the World Series Just Yet

Almost makes it out as if they are the Giants, great pitchers but at best a spotty offense.

Matthew Pouliot, another writer no doubt ruined by Bill James.

  Quote

Ryne Sandberg had his last big year at 32

Gee, coming back after retiring , at 36, to Hit 25 HR's and drive in 92 wasn't a big year??? oh, right, his OBP was only .312, he was worthless that season!

  Quote

Craig Biggio hung around forever, but he was never the same after 32.

Best home run season before turning 32, 22(yeah, he was still in the astrodome then) at the age of 38, he hit 24 HR's and when he was 39, he hit 26, all on legs that started out as catcher's legs! But, of course, the ONLY stat that matters these days is OBP, and it dropped as he got older, so another worthless player who just "hung around forever"

All of this has nothing to do with the Phillies of course...Hey, last thing in the world I want to see is the phillies get stronger...but to act like short of Ryan Howard and Utley going down for the season, they have more than enough offense with that staff, to win the NL east.

Yup, about time for the Phils, Yanks, and Red sox to get a special league just for themselves!

Edited December 14, 2010 by BERIGAN