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Posted

Excellent analysis of Ryan Howard and his new mega-deal here.

Money quotes:

Howard’s mammoth R.B.I. totals stem from the on-base skills of the batters preceding him. Over the last four years, 1,993 men have been on base for him, the highest figure in baseball. During that time, the Kansas City Royals’ David DeJesus has driven in a similar percentage of runners, with 18.3 percent to Howard’s 18.8 percent. But because DeJesus hits leadoff for the lowly Royals, and Howard hits cleanup for the mighty Phillies, DeJesus’s R.B.I. totals pale in comparison.

Howard does no such favors for the players hitting behind him. During his first two full seasons, he was usually followed in the Phillies’ lineup by the punchless Aaron Rowand, leading to a large number of intentional walks. But once the team began putting sluggers in the fifth slot — Pat Burrell in 2008, and a mix of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in 2009 — Howard’s free passes plummeted, taking his on-base percentage with them. Over the last two years, Howard’s on-base percentage, .349, barely exceeds the .343 mark that a league-average hitter would have posted in Philadelphia.

Howard’s list of most similar players on Baseball-Reference.com includes a number of cautionary tales, including Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder and John Jaha of recent vintage, as well as throwbacks like Jim Gentile and Dick Stuart. None of them had a valuable season after age 33, and most flamed out well before that. It is no wonder that Dan Szymborski, a writer for ESPN.com who has developed a player-projection system called ZiPS, foresees Howard posting a .325 on-base percentage and .469 slugging percentage in the last year of his deal. That is not much better than what one would expect from Mike Jacobs, whom the Mets cut two weeks ago.

I think this deal would be fine if it had kicked in immediately but not starting until 2012 and running through his age 36 season makes it pretty likely Howard will be grossly overpaid for prior performance, and those famously friendly and always well-behaved Philly fans will let him know it.

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Posted

Howard’s list of most similar players on Baseball-Reference.com includes a number of cautionary tales, including Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder and John Jaha of recent vintage, as well as throwbacks like Jim Gentile and Dick Stuart. None of them had a valuable season after age 33, and most flamed out well before that.

That's a brutal list. :ph34r:

Posted

Another great start from Phil Hughes today for the Yanks--he's now 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA after four turns in the rotation. Some buzz that he may indeed be going for NY against Boston next Friday, with Javy being skipped till Detroit. Granderson out for a month, which will be hard on the OF...glad that Brett Gardner is having such a great year so far (and Swisher putting in good numbers at the plate now as well). Platooning Winn and Thames in left will be a no-hit or no-field situation, unfortunately.

Dave James and other NY fans, check out the May 3 issue of Sports Illustrated if you get a chance; the Core Four are on the cover, and there's a great group interview with them that starts on pg. 38.

Posted

And Greinke still hasn't beaten the Rays.

Great pitching battle today between him (complete game) and Davis.

Man, Greinke--a 2.27 ERA and he's 0-3.

I didn't see the whole game, but from the write-ups, he pitched a hell of a ballgame. 80-something total pitches in a complete game effort. Made one mistake to Longoria and that was it. Goes to show, W-L record isn't always the greatest measure.

Posted

Excellent analysis of Ryan Howard and his new mega-deal here.

Money quotes:

Howard's mammoth R.B.I. totals stem from the on-base skills of the batters preceding him. Over the last four years, 1,993 men have been on base for him, the highest figure in baseball. During that time, the Kansas City Royals' David DeJesus has driven in a similar percentage of runners, with 18.3 percent to Howard's 18.8 percent. But because DeJesus hits leadoff for the lowly Royals, and Howard hits cleanup for the mighty Phillies, DeJesus's R.B.I. totals pale in comparison.

Howard does no such favors for the players hitting behind him. During his first two full seasons, he was usually followed in the Phillies' lineup by the punchless Aaron Rowand, leading to a large number of intentional walks. But once the team began putting sluggers in the fifth slot — Pat Burrell in 2008, and a mix of Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez in 2009 — Howard's free passes plummeted, taking his on-base percentage with them. Over the last two years, Howard's on-base percentage, .349, barely exceeds the .343 mark that a league-average hitter would have posted in Philadelphia.

Howard's list of most similar players on Baseball-Reference.com includes a number of cautionary tales, including Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder and John Jaha of recent vintage, as well as throwbacks like Jim Gentile and Dick Stuart. None of them had a valuable season after age 33, and most flamed out well before that. It is no wonder that Dan Szymborski, a writer for ESPN.com who has developed a player-projection system called ZiPS, foresees Howard posting a .325 on-base percentage and .469 slugging percentage in the last year of his deal. That is not much better than what one would expect from Mike Jacobs, whom the Mets cut two weeks ago.

I think this deal would be fine if it had kicked in immediately but not starting until 2012 and running through his age 36 season makes it pretty likely Howard will be grossly overpaid for prior performance, and those famously friendly and always well-behaved Philly fans will let him know it.

Whew, that was a brutal analysis. If his one dimensionality erodes in future years, Philadelphia won't be a nice place to play for him.

Posted (edited)

Yankees defeat the O's tonight 4-1 on the strength of a 3-RBI HR moonshot to deep center by...Randy Winn!? :blink::party:

Confirmed: Phil Hughes will be starting against Boston at Fenway on Friday. Javy not pitching again until the Detroit series.

EDIT: aging Yankee check-in...Posada likely out for several days/games after leaving tonight's game with "tightness in his right calf" (he'll be getting an MRI). So we may or may not be headed to Fenway without Posada being available, in addition to Granderson already being on the DL. Mo had "stiffness in his side" after pitching Friday night, which evidently may be one reason why CC pitched a full 8 tonight and Joba came in for the save in the 9th.

Edited by ghost of miles
Posted (edited)

From the department of Stupid is as Stupid Does:

20100504_inq_ptaser04-a.JPG

I'll let you decide if the role of "Stupid" is played by the idiot fan, the cop using his Taser or both.

First a Philly fan intentionally vomits on a fan, now this. What the fuck is wrong with the citizens of the "city of brotherly love"?

More here.

Edited by Dan Gould
Posted

From the department of Stupid is as Stupid Does:

20100504_inq_ptaser04-a.JPG

I'll let you decide if the role of "Stupid" is played by the idiot fan, the cop using his Taser or both.

First a Philly fan intentionally vomits on a fan, now this. What the fuck is wrong with the citizens of the "city of brotherly love"?

More here.

Oh c'mon now. As if other fans at other stadiums don't run onto the field?? NO that never happens in Boston. Obviously, the security overreacted.

Posted (edited)

Guy apparently called his dad to see if it was OK with pops if he ran out onto the field. Dad says no. The future Penn State graduate does it anyways. Cops are reviewing procedures to see if they should even be on the field when a situation appears non-threatening, as this one was.

Edited by papsrus
Posted (edited)

Another great game from Francisco Cervelli for the Yankees last night (inspiring ESPN's Andrew Marchand's Cervelli ode this morning). I think Joe Girardi's going to have quite the dilemma on his hands... it's becoming quite clear, statistically speaking, that NY's pitching staff does much better when FC is behind the plate than when Jorge Posada is. Cervelli's catcher ERA, going into last night's game (it's surely gone down, considering that he caught all nine innings and the Yankees didn't surrender an earned run), vs. Posada's:

Since the start of 2009:

Cervelli’s ERA: 3.43 (241 ip)

Posada: 5.02 (785 ip)

2010:

Cervelli: 2.57 (74 ip, not counting May 4's 4-1 victory)

Posada: 3.98 (147 ip)

...and according to Marchand, Cervelli has the third-best catcher ERA in the entire major leagues since the start of 2009 for any catcher taking more than 300 IP. Marchand points out that this stat depends in large part, of course, on the performance of the pitchers...but certainly catchers can affect that performance, and in the case of Cervelli vs. Posada, they're catching the same staff.

If nothing else, I don't think Jorge has to worry about getting enough rest from his catching duties this year. Given how Nick Johnson's pretty much tanked so far as a DH (outside of being a human base-on-balls machine), I wonder how much sense it might make to shift Posada into that slot much more often and let Cervelli catch at least half of NY's games.

Matthew--can Cliff Lee please shut down Tampa Bay tonight? :crazy:

Edited by ghost of miles
Posted

I was really impressed with Cervelli's defense last night. A.J. Burnett kept throwing splitters in the dirt and every time he did, Cervelli either went down and got them or at least kept the ball in front of him. For one night, he was the hardest working man in show business. If he keeps hitting, Girardi has some tough choices ahead of him. On the downside, just when you think Mark Texiera has made it safe to go back in the water, he disappoints. I really thought the light might have gone on after his four hit effort a couple of nights ago, but since then he's gone dead in the water. I haven't taken the time to research his past early season struggles, but my sense is that this may be the worst Spring he's ever had.

Out here on the left coast, one has to wonder if the relationship between the Mariners and Milton Bradley is already on the rocks. Dan Wakamatsu pulled Bradley last night after he'd struck out twice in key situations and that apparently did not sit well with Mr. B. Word was that he left the clubhouse early and was really pissed off. I'm not sure how he rationalizes his reactions considering his complete lack of production so far this year, but then again, this is Milton Bradley. There's a reason this is his eighth team in the last 10 years. The guy has made a career out of second chances. Why teams keep thinking they can turn him around is beyond me, but I guess that's baseball.

Posted

I was really impressed with Cervelli's defense last night. A.J. Burnett kept throwing splitters in the dirt and every time he did, Cervelli either went down and got them or at least kept the ball in front of him. For one night, he was the hardest working man in show business. If he keeps hitting, Girardi has some tough choices ahead of him. On the downside, just when you think Mark Texiera has made it safe to go back in the water, he disappoints. I really thought the light might have gone on after his four hit effort a couple of nights ago, but since then he's gone dead in the water. I haven't taken the time to research his past early season struggles, but my sense is that this may be the worst Spring he's ever had.

Re: Cervelli, I've come across several references now to NY pitchers, including CC, raving about how much they enjoy working with him. And yes, Dave, you're spot-on about how he was handling A.J.'s splitters last night; I think a couple of those would've gotten past Posada. On the subject of Tex's woes, another MIA, at least when it comes to power, is A-Rod. Between the two of them they've got 4 HR in roughly 190 AB. NY's been carried by nearly everybody else on offense except them (and Nick Johnson), and its outstanding pitching so far. At some point, though, we're really going to need the #3 and #4 hitters to wake up...especially if Tampa Bay keeps on refusing to lose. Very tough schedule coming up for NY in the next few weeks, too...today's afternoon game vs. Baltimore is the last on-paper "easy" one we'll have for awhile.

Posted

Oops, Andy Pettite is going to miss at least his next start after an MRI revealed a strain in his left elbow. Frankly, that sounds a little ominous. Pettitte has been lights out and was again today against the Orioles. It would be unfortunate to lose him for any length of time. Given Javier Vazquez's struggles, I wouldn't exactly say the Yanks are knee deep in starting pitching. I would hate to see them move Joba back into the rotation since he seems to have gotten into something of a groove coming out of the pen.

Posted

...a groove the rest of the pen has yet to find, as witness today's 8th/9th-inning meltdown that put the O's right back in it at the very end. And the Pettitte inflammation/strain issue will make a believer out of me yet in the Sports Illustrated cover jinx... remember that "Core 4" story I mentioned earlier? Since it appeared, add Pettitte's situation to:

Francisco Cervelli caught again in place of Jorge Posada, who missed his second consecutive game with a strained right calf. Girardi said Posada’s next availability would not be known until Friday in Boston.

Girardi also said that closer Mariano Rivera, out since last Saturday with a pulled muscle in the rib-cage area, was probably available Wednesday but that he preferred to rest him until at least Friday.

...via NY Times' Bats blog.

Toronto won again today and Boston's ahead of the Angels in the 6th--if they win they'll be at .500. Right now the top 4 teams in the AL East seem incapable of losing.

On the other side of the leagues, Zito shutting out the Marlins after 6.

Posted

happened again tonight.

No taze ... just a fan running on the field.

And seemed to mess up Cole Hamels last night too. Players and coaches seem to be all for tasering the guy the day before...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5165782

Braves-Nationals game tonight is see-sawing through 5 innings. I don't know how many times there have been ties and lead changes. Lots of hitting for a 4-4 game.

Well, I wonder how fans will react if the Nats lose out by 4-5 games...games that Stephen Strasburg could have won??? I mean, don't want to see him become the next Mark Prior, but he's clearly ready. If no one is on in the minors, he won't be slowing down from the stretch there either....

Braves-Nationals game tonight is see-sawing through 5 innings. I don't know how many times there have been ties and lead changes. Lots of hitting for a 4-4 game.

Braves were up 6-4, now tied again at 6-6! :rfr

Posted

Robin Roberts, RIP.

At the end of the 1950 season, Robin Roberts started three games in five days, the last of the three a victory over the Brooklyn Dodgers that clinched the NL pennant. Saying they don't make 'em like that anymore almost seems unnecessary.

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