2009-2010 Hot Stove Thread

[BERIGAN]

Winn will probably be satisfied with whatever playing time he gets. I doubt that Damon would feel the same way.

And he will probably hit 20 flyballs that will go over the fence 212 feet away from home plate!

Heck, Damon hit what, 17 at home, 7 on the road???

Still, I don't like that no one wants Damon for one main reason, his age. Well, having Borass as an agent probably doesn't help at this point of his career.

[Quincy]

The Big Unit will be on the mound for the Mariner's opening day!

He's throwing out the ceremonial pitch, not starting. Still, it's great that they've made amends as the mid-season trade to Houston all those years ago was a nasty time.

[Dave James]

Winn will probably be satisfied with whatever playing time he gets. I doubt that Damon would feel the same way.

And he will probably hit 20 flyballs that will go over the fence 212 feet away from home plate!

Heck, Damon hit what, 17 at home, 7 on the road???

Still, I don't like that no one wants Damon for one main reason, his age. Well, having Borass as an agent probably doesn't help at this point of his career.

That and the fact he's got a rag arm. Damon can't throw. Coaches know it, base runners know it. He may be the most "run on" outfielder in the majors.

[Tim McG]

The Yankees have just announced the signing of Randy Winn to a one year deal. I think that's a good insurance move. He's had reasonable numbers for the last few seasons. On the downside, any chances of bringing back Johnny Damon seem to have disappeared entirely.

All glove, no bat.

I don't know if I'd agree with that. In his five most recent years with the Giants he hit .290 with 51 home runs, 262 RBI's and 73 stolen bases. I'd say mostly glove, some bat.

That would be the average, Dave.

Take a look at his year by year stats. Last year he could barely hit his hat size. He was Mr. Rally Killer.

.262 is nothing to shout about. Only two years above .300 with the Giants. Sure he got on base on occasion, but produced few runs; 65 last year with 51 RBIs in only 149 games.

And he's 35.

Good luck with that.

He'll probably be batting 9th, so I think we can live with it. I'd rather have Damon, but given all of the offense that NY already has, acquiring Winn is not an utter disaster or anything.

Just wait until Winn comes up with men in scoring position.

We'll talk.

[ghost of miles]

Well, we managed to carry the day with one of the worst RISP hitters around last year (Robinson Cano), so I imagine we'll muddle through with Randy Winn as well.

Again, I'd rather have Damon back for another year, but Randy Winn batting 9th is not a big concern for me. I'm more concerned about Vasquez, the fifth starter situation, and how our pitching staff matches up overall against Boston's. I'm also concerned about Nick Johnson's susceptibility to injuries and the notion of his batting second, given that he can't run to save his life.

[Brad]

I've heard that Damon is still angling to get back. Not sure how that would work.

Meanwhile the stupid Mets admit they never gave J.J. Putz a physical before they traded for him last year in a -- guess what -- shortened year due to injuries. Please sell this team and get someone in there who can run it.

[ghost of miles]

I've heard that Damon is still angling to get back. Not sure how that would work.

Latest I heard was that he's interested in signing with Detroit. I'm sure he'd love to be back with NY instead, and I wish we had him back as well, but yeah, I can't fathom any way that would happen now.

[Quincy]

Just wait until Winn comes up with men in scoring position.

We'll talk.

Actually his clutch stats have been very good for the past 2 years (all I looked at.) Given that he has a functional arm too I'm one of the few who thinks the Yankees came out ahead, or at least "a wash" in this deal.

[Tim McG]

Just wait until Winn comes up with men in scoring position.

We'll talk.

Actually his clutch stats have been very good for the past 2 years (all I looked at.) Given that he has a functional arm too I'm one of the few who thinks the Yankees came out ahead, or at least "a wash" in this deal.

As an average, perhaps. Game by game, perhaps not. He was a designated out when the Giants played meaningful games. Trust me. I was there.

But also look at his OBP and SOs. Nothing to shout about here. Sure he's a very good fielder. Like I said: All glove, no bat.

[Dave James]

I still think Rocco Baldelli might be in the Yankee's plans. Winn is beyond horrible against left handed pitching, so Baldelli could find some PT in that role. More to the point, he's got an incredibly hot girlfriend.

http://www.survivinggrady.com/uploaded_images/gia-741461.jpg

Edited February 4, 2010 by Dave James

[Dan Gould]

Here's something worth a perusal while we wait for Pitchers & Catchers to show up:

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects for every year from 1990 on. You can also see top ten prospects by team for each year. A great reminder that no prospect, but most especially pitchers, are "can't miss". And fun to see when the prognosticators had some nobody ranked way ahead of future Hall of Famers.

[papsrus]

I still think Rocco Baldelli might be in the Yankee's plans. Winn is beyond horrible against left handed pitching, so Baldelli could find some PT in that role. More to the point, he's got an incredibly hot girlfriend.

http://www.survivinggrady.com/uploaded_images/gia-741461.jpg

Where's the rest of the photo!

[Dave James]

I have the rest of the picture, but my sense of dignity and being mindful of what is in the best interests of my fellow board members, I have made the decision not to release it. You will thank me later.

[Matthew]

According to my Mariners Home Page: 4 day 5 hours 31 minutes until pitchers and catchers report. Good, it really been a sports vacuum for me since the World Series ended.

[Dan Gould]

Do the Mariners have any back up plan if/when David Aardsma proves that last season was a fluke and the bullpen starts torching games?

Take a look at his stats and its clear that he was a completely different pitcher last season then the previous three. Predicting bullpen performance year-to-year is the hardest thing for anyone to do, and how often do mediocre-to-awful setup men become elite closers and then stay at that level?

If Aardsma keeps his mojo, the other improvements the M's have made should make them very tough and highly competitive for the division crown.

It just seems to me that its a mighty big if.

[Matthew]

Do the Mariners have any back up plan if/when David Aardsma proves that last season was a fluke and the bullpen starts torching games?

Take a look at his stats and its clear that he was a completely different pitcher last season then the previous three. Predicting bullpen performance year-to-year is the hardest thing for anyone to do, and how often do mediocre-to-awful setup men become elite closers and then stay at that level?

If Aardsma keeps his mojo, the other improvements the M's have made should make them very tough and highly competitive for the division crown.

It just seems to me that its a mighty big if.

Granted, that is an unspoken worry for the Mariners, everyone just assumes he's going to be lights-out, but my two worries are these: 1. It's much easier to be the closer on a team with zero expectations, just throw free and easy, and let the chips fall where they may (what's that? three cliches in one sentence?). 2. There have been way too many one year wonders when it comes to closers -- that's the scary part. If Aardsma falters, probably Mark Lowe will be given a chance, he was very good at times last year, and he did have three saves. The Mariners seem to be hopelessly in love with Brandon League, so maybe he's Plan B. This whole question is the reason I did not like the Morrow trade, which I think will come back to bite the Mariners in the rear end when it's all said and done.

Edit: PS -- Article "whistling-past-the-graveyard" on Aardsma

Edited February 14, 2010 by Matthew

[Dan Gould]

Interesting article, I hadn't considered how Safeco would help him and may be fairly expected to protect him going forward. But what I see is a drop in walks and a huge drop in hits allowed - he gave up the same number of hits as in 2008 while pitching about 60% more innings. And what does BABIP tell us? Unbelievable drop is what it shows - .257 when the previous two (bad) years he was at .341 and .385. Now it may not be fair to expect him to duplicate the worst numbers, but a regression to the mean coupled with any sort of regression in his walk rate is going to result in some bad outings, certainly more bad outings than last season.

Unless he's somehow really harnessed his talent and can keep it going. I'm not sure though that his minor league stats show someone that you would think should be better than he's been in the majors. I think he always projected to be a middle-relief guy, maybe a reliable setup man. Not a closer on a team with championship aspirations.

On a separate note, has anyone else noticed that the Orioles made some pretty good moves this offseason? Garrett Atkins apart, Tejada figures to hit much better than Melvin Mora did. Millwood in the rotation is a solid addition, and Gonzales in the back end of the bullpen should mean fewer bullpen meltdowns. Add them to the core of Markakis and Roberts, with Adam Jones and Weiters (presumably he'll live up to the hype) and it seems to me that the Orioles should be no pushovers. It won't be enough to get to the playoffs or anything but I think if everything goes right and one of the Big Three really underperforms, they could even push one of the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees to fourth place, in a perfect world. I think there's definitely a chance that they'd be more than competitive with whatever team wins the Central. I'm quite confident in believing they'll outplay the Blue Jays for fourth place though.

[Matthew]

Interesting article, I hadn't considered how Safeco would help him and may be fairly expected to protect him going forward. But what I see is a drop in walks and a huge drop in hits allowed - he gave up the same number of hits as in 2008 while pitching about 60% more innings. And what does BABIP tell us? Unbelievable drop is what it shows - .257 when the previous two (bad) years he was at .341 and .385. Now it may not be fair to expect him to duplicate the worst numbers, but a regression to the mean coupled with any sort of regression in his walk rate is going to result in some bad outings, certainly more bad outings than last season.

Unless he's somehow really harnessed his talent and can keep it going. I'm not sure though that his minor league stats show someone that you would think should be better than he's been in the majors. I think he always projected to be a middle-relief guy, maybe a reliable setup man. Not a closer on a team with championship aspirations.

On a separate note, has anyone else noticed that the Orioles made some pretty good moves this offseason? Garrett Atkins apart, Tejada figures to hit much better than Melvin Mora did. Millwood in the rotation is a solid addition, and Gonzales in the back end of the bullpen should mean fewer bullpen meltdowns. Add them to the core of Markakis and Roberts, with Adam Jones and Weiters (presumably he'll live up to the hype) and it seems to me that the Orioles should be no pushovers. It won't be enough to get to the playoffs or anything but I think if everything goes right and one of the Big Three really underperforms, they could even push one of the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees to fourth place, in a perfect world. I think there's definitely a chance that they'd be more than competitive with whatever team wins the Central. I'm quite confident in believing they'll outplay the Blue Jays for fourth place though.

Dan's retro-curse upon the O's: O's pitcher injured filming commerical!

[Dan Gould]

He deserves it, being stupid enough to agree to the commercial but doing no throwing off a mound before filming. He's lucky it isn't more serious than missing ten days of spring training.

[Dave James]

I came across an article on the Sports Illustrated website today discussing the Yankees interest in Cuban defector Adeinis Hechavarria. He's both a shortstop and an outfielder, so if they do sign him, he could wind up being Derek Jeter's replacement. In the interim, he's apparently good enough as an outfielder to make moving Curtis Granderson from center to left field a possibility.

[Dan Gould]

Pitchers & Catchers!

I said,

Pitchers

and

Catchers

Edited February 18, 2010 by Dan Gould

[ghost of miles]

Boston made some great moves in the off-season, Dan. I think it's going to be a hell of a barnburner in the AL East this year.

Matthew: I loved that pitchers-and-catchers countdown feature...I think that was on everybody's home-team page this year.

[Tim McG]

Tim Lincecum signs for crazy money.

Up from $650,000 bucks, he signed a two year deal for $8 million the first year and $13 million the second year....with $650,00 bucks in incentives. I should be so lucky.

Maybe that will be motivation enough to stay off the pot smoking.

We can only hope.

Edited February 19, 2010 by GoodSpeak

[Quincy]

Tim Lincecum signs for crazy money.

Up from $650,000 bucks, he signed a two year deal for $8 million the first year and $13 million the second year....with $650,00 bucks in incentives. I should be so lucky.

Maybe that will be motivation enough to stay off the pot smoking.

We can only hope.

I hope no such thing. I don't care one way or another what he smokes, though it does gp to show you that one can smoke pot and darn near every professional hitter in baseball. Good for him. As for the money, I think it's great when great players get payed the big money, and players with declining skills (as in Johnny Damon) have their paychecks nipped accordingly.

[ghost of miles]

To quote one online baseball wag earlier today, "Will Johnny Damon please end our long national nightmare and sign somewhere?"

The saga has finally ended:

Damon to Tigers for 1 yr/8 million