MLB 2009 Season

[Quincy]

I think the Bosox figured out how to use VMart--reduce the exposure of Varitek and Lowell to live pitching. If Youkilis can play third, then VMart does what he did in Cleveland--split time behind the plate and at first. Of course facing the Orioles is a nice way to start...

Yup, VMart in the role of Gene Tenace (21st century model.) He's better at 1st than behind the plate, but given his pop & good eyes it's hard to resist having him catch some. Worked great for the A's in the '70s.

[Quincy]

Well he sure as hell isn't a AAA pitcher either. If you expect to get equal value one for one, why would any trade offer be made? There's certainly a chance that Buchholz turns out to be a AAAA pitcher, but how can you possibly decide that based on barely half a season, TOTAL in the major leagues? How was King Felix after 118 innings in his career? (I'll tell you - age 19 he was great for 12 starts, age 20, he SUCKED for an entire season)

At age 19! And he was significantly better than Buchholz at that point too. Felix's WHIP was below league average for the season he "sucked" and he still couldn't legally buy alcohol, yet they didn't overwork him either. Major league ready Buchholz, again an older pitcher, has a career WHIP of 1.67. Now that sucks. I think you put far too much weight on Buchholz's no hitter (vs. a lousy team in an early start) whose young career is starting to look like one of those Bud Smith or Anibal Sanchez types. He's certainly young enough that he could turn it around (look at Edwin Jackson this year), but Felix is younger still.

With only 4 teams in the AL West - one teetering on bankruptcy and another famously frugal, I'd far rather keep the young ace than what allegedly was offered.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Quincy

[Dan Gould]

Buchholz is to be dismissed because he didn't start his professional career until age 20?

Your boy has a lot of mileage on his arm at a young age. Given the fact that few pitchers avoid elbow or shoulder injuries, that makes his inevitable breakdown likely to come sooner, say before age 30, then later, doesn't it?

And furthermore, what has more value - a staff ace, or an everyday 1B who has led his league in HRs and is locked up for three more years? How has Halladay helped out the Jays for the last several years? How about Pedro before the Red Sox started surrounding him with a decent roster? A huge boost to the offense (Gonzales) + 3 arms that at minimum, right now, are league average and have substantially higher upside (Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden) and are cost controlled for 5-6 years might make you a bit more competitive day in and day out than one ace starting 20% of the time.

The Mariners haven't won with Felix, and they aren't going to win with Felix til they fix the rest of the roster.

[Matthew]

Buchholz is to be dismissed because he didn't start his professional career until age 20?

Your boy has a lot of mileage on his arm at a young age. Given the fact that few pitchers avoid elbow or shoulder injuries, that makes his inevitable breakdown likely to come sooner, say before age 30, then later, doesn't it?

And furthermore, what has more value - a staff ace, or an everyday 1B who has led his league in HRs and is locked up for three more years? How has Halladay helped out the Jays for the last several years? How about Pedro before the Red Sox started surrounding him with a decent roster? A huge boost to the offense (Gonzales) + 3 arms that at minimum, right now, are league average and have substantially higher upside (Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden) and are cost controlled for 5-6 years might make you a bit more competitive day in and day out than one ace starting 20% of the time.

The Mariners haven't won with Felix, and they aren't going to win with Felix til they fix the rest of the roster.

What are you talking about? It was only last year that Felix went over 200 innings, and that was 200.2. Brandon Morrow & Phillippe Aumont both could turn out way better than Buchholz, especially Morrow, who has an explosive arm, who just needs time to get his act together. Plus, they have won with Felix, they came in second in 2007 (88 wins), Hernandez went 14-7 that year. This year, there is a good chance for a .500 record, thanks in a large part to Hernandez. Pick up a couple of good players this off season, and who knows, an even better club! I know that with Felix, Boston would have had a great chance of going all the way, but it's not going to happen. Seattle is positioned to have a good team for years to come by keeping Felix, so I stll say: Thank goodness they turned down this trade! Now excuse me, there's some kool-Aid waiting for me to drink.

[Dan Gould]

Buchholz is to be dismissed because he didn't start his professional career until age 20?

Your boy has a lot of mileage on his arm at a young age. Given the fact that few pitchers avoid elbow or shoulder injuries, that makes his inevitable breakdown likely to come sooner, say before age 30, then later, doesn't it?

And furthermore, what has more value - a staff ace, or an everyday 1B who has led his league in HRs and is locked up for three more years? How has Halladay helped out the Jays for the last several years? How about Pedro before the Red Sox started surrounding him with a decent roster? A huge boost to the offense (Gonzales) + 3 arms that at minimum, right now, are league average and have substantially higher upside (Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden) and are cost controlled for 5-6 years might make you a bit more competitive day in and day out than one ace starting 20% of the time.

The Mariners haven't won with Felix, and they aren't going to win with Felix til they fix the rest of the roster.

What are you talking about? It was only last year that Felix went over 200 innings, and that was 200.2. Brandon Morrow & Phillippe Aumont both could turn out way better than Buchholz, especially Morrow, who has an explosive arm, who just needs time to get his act together. Plus, they have won with Felix, they came in second in 2007 (88 wins), Hernandez went 14-7 that year. This year, there is a good chance for a .500 record, thanks in a large part to Hernandez. Pick up a couple of good players this off season, and who knows, an even better club! I know that with Felix, Boston would have had a great chance of going all the way, but it's not going to happen. Seattle is positioned to have a good team for years to come by keeping Felix, so I stll say: Thank goodness they turned down this trade! Now excuse me, there's some kool-Aid waiting for me to drink.

You mean Brandon Morrow of the 1.5 WHIP?

Felix has thrown 190+ innings for three years straight and will exceed that again this year. He's young, he's good, and odds are, he's going to break down some day. Starting out young means that day will happen sooner.

With the Angels in your division, Texas having built up its farm system, and the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays likely to have two teams with 93 wins or better, since when is 87 going to cut it? Your only chance of ever making the playoffs is if the Angels somehow collapse, and they never seem to. My God, your only 4 runs ahead of KC for fewest runs scored in the majors!

The only way the M's sniff the playoffs is if they fix the roster. I don't know about your farm system but a reality check suggests that flipping your stud would go a long way toward doing that.

[Quincy]

Buchholz is to be dismissed because he didn't start his professional career until age 20?

Not at all, it's just that age of player matters a great deal when comparing players, and you were minimizing the accomplishments of Felix relative towards the perceived abilities of the older Buchholz. Felix is in the top 10 all time for K/9 through age 23, yet he also induces a lot of ground balls. Yes, Boston would love that - hell, any team would.

Your boy has a lot of mileage on his arm at a young age. Given the fact that few pitchers avoid elbow or shoulder injuries, that makes his inevitable breakdown likely to come sooner, say before age 30, then later, doesn't it?

Actually he's been treated quite well by the M's. He's pitched 31 game max in a season and didn't touch 200 innings until last year. Hardly run into the ground. He also avoided throwing a slider during those younger years to avoid damage. With pitchers who the hell knows as they can break down, but he's been well taken care of.

And furthermore, what has more value - a staff ace, or an everyday 1B who has led his league in HRs and is locked up for three more years? How has Halladay helped out the Jays for the last several years?

You could just as easily state how has any player helped the Blue Jays. They should just fuckin' quit or move to another division. As a longtime Red Sox fan you should appreciate that having stud hitters without pitching is just another way to lose games.

At the moment power hitting first basemen aren't scarce as they're all over the league HR & RBI lists. I like Gonzalez a lot don't get me wrong, but the way Felix has advanced this year he's the rarer bird. There could be other serviceable 1st baseman available in the wintertime. It's not like a pennant winner has to have a power guy anyway, sometimes the high OBP types with good defense fit in just fine. Besides, the M's are currently getting 24 homers from 1st from a throw away player.

How about Pedro before the Red Sox started surrounding him with a decent roster?

The big thing that helped there was getting a good glove at short. I remember having to talk a Red Sox friend off the ledge when Nomar got traded. I repeatedly told him I thought they had improved the pitching with the better glove at short as they already had plenty of offense, plus they got rid of a clubhouse cancer. He finally believed me around September.

A huge boost to the offense (Gonzales) + 3 arms that at minimum, right now, are league average and have substantially higher upside (Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden) and are cost controlled for 5-6 years might make you a bit more competitive day in and day out than one ace starting 20% of the time.

The Mariners haven't won with Felix, and they aren't going to win with Felix til they fix the rest of the roster.

Well duh. The problem with the M's hasn't been money, it's been where they've spent it post-Hargrove. Again, I don't put a lot into the trade rumor web site. As far as comparing power hitting 1b vs. an ace, you know that good teams need good pitching, hitting and defense, so where the M's are I'm not sure adding a power hitting at 1B and then having Masterson as your ace (cause it sure as hell isn't Buchholz) makes things better. The ace is harder to develop and find compared to the power hitter, the M's have money, so it makes more sense to stick with the kid. As it's a smaller cheaper division, maybe they can scrape something together within 2 years, maybe even next.

*edited* - Or 3 years, or 4, or 5. Felix will still be under 30 even after 5 years! (It is an ugly looking roster offensively, but "smell the glove," we built this team on defense!)

Edited August 4, 2009 by Quincy

[Chuck Nessa]

Cubs get another W.

[Matthew]

Cubs get another W.

In first place by .001, but how in the world has St. Louis played four more games than the Cubs? That's a lot of games Chicago has to make up.

[Chuck Nessa]

It was 5 before tonight.

[Dan Gould]

Cubs get another W.

I didn't listen - was there any indication that Gregg is finished as closer and Marmol has taken over, or was Piniella giving Gregg the night off? That guy has to be the worst closer on any playoff contending team. He's proof that you can "close" and amass save statistics while sucking raw eggs. It was a terrible trade but I blame Piniella for not realizing that Gregg sucks and getting him out of that role. They could easily be in first with any sort of decent closer, and even if they make the playoffs I can't see them winning if Gregg has to get key outs in the ninth.

Quincy - that trade rumors website only puts together the reporting of various baseball sources. I could do without their blog links, but their source on that trade report was Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. I don't know his rep, but one thing is for sure - that's not the kind of the information you get from an agent putting out unfounded rumors or a GM trying to goose another team to improve its offer. That's pretty much a straightforward rendering of how the trade negotiation went.

[Quincy]

Quincy - that trade rumors website only puts together the reporting of various baseball sources. I could do without their blog links, but their source on that trade report was Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. I don't know his rep, but one thing is for sure - that's not the kind of the information you get from an agent putting out unfounded rumors or a GM trying to goose another team to improve its offer. That's pretty much a straightforward rendering of how the trade negotiation went.

Okay, thanks. I have seen some rumors in the past that were shot down as wildly false. Then again, denial is the usual answer from a GM.

The ace vs. the great everyday is the unanswerable zen question of baseball. But if we're playing fantasy I do go with the hitter every time.

[Chuck Nessa]

Marmol was lucky to get the save. Gregg will be back. It was on ESPN.

Edited August 4, 2009 by Chuck Nessa

[Dave James]

In his last 100 innings pitched, Buchholz has allowed 180 base runners.

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

Oh yeah, that's real fair to include the very worst of his disastrous 2008 season.

I wonder what Hughes looks like if he add in his 2008 numbers. Oh that's right - he sucked, then he kept getting hurt.

[Matthew]

Anyway, this is going to be an interesting week for the Red Sox, they're going on the road to play Tampa Bay & the Yankees. I'd say they have to at least split the six games this week or they could find themselves in a little bit of trouble.

[Matthew]

Oh yeah, that's real fair to include the very worst of his disastrous 2008 season.

I wonder what Hughes looks like if he add in his 2008 numbers. Oh that's right - he sucked, then he kept getting hurt.

We'll see how "Cy Young" Buchholz pitches against the Yankees on Saturday.

[Dan Gould]

Its not about individual performances. Was Lester much better after 118 innings in his career? Furthermore, the Indians offered V-Mart straight up for Buchholz, so someone else thinks he's going to be pretty good.

I will say this though: Wakefield is weeks away from returning, and no one knows what they have with Smoltz. They are relying on Buchholz to show that he is more than a AAAA pitcher, and if he continues to suck eggs, his stock will go down. Its shit or get off the pot time for Clay.

[BERIGAN]

Cubs get another W.

I didn't listen - was there any indication that Gregg is finished as closer and Marmol has taken over, or was Piniella giving Gregg the night off? That guy has to be the worst closer on any playoff contending team. He's proof that you can "close" and amass save statistics while sucking raw eggs. It was a terrible trade but I blame Piniella for not realizing that Gregg sucks and getting him out of that role. They could easily be in first with any sort of decent closer, and even if they make the playoffs I can't see them winning if Gregg has to get key outs in the ninth.

Gregg is weird, I saw him pitch great, lots of movement, during the past week, then sucked against his old team. Marmol though...He seems to have control issues at the worst time.

[PHILLYQ]

Cubs get another W.

I watched some of the 9th inning and Cubs fans watching must have been reaching for the Tums or a stiff drink! Marmol was pretty shaky in the 9th. In the end a win is a win...

[BERIGAN]

...

I will say this though: Wakefield is weeks away from returning, and no one knows what they have with Smoltz. They are relying on Buchholz to show that he is more than a AAAA pitcher, and if he continues to suck eggs, his stock will go down. Its shit or get off the pot time for Clay.

Have you heard any Sox fans bitch about signing everyone and their brother this spring??? With Buchholz now 25, it seems in retrospect, he should have been given a job out of spring training. At some point, you have to trust your minor league guys, and leave folks like Penny and Smoltz for later on down the road....

Anyone figure out what is up with Smoltz??? Players don't often come back from Labrum issues. He throws 93 still, but no control of offspeed pitches, which he could always do, even when his arm was about to fall off...just strange.

[Dan Gould]

Buchholz pitched himself out of the majors last year and was ultimately, right around this time, sent all the way back to AA. They weren't going to count on Buchholz for anything in 2009, so it made sense to go out and get low-risk, high-reward veteran pitchers on short contracts. Only Penny's restricted start in March made it an issue of whether Buchholz might make the team but in retrospect, even if he had, Penny was going to take his spot eventually anyway. But with Buchholz issues in 2008, there's no way that a world series "contender" just gives him a spot in the rotation.

As for Smoltz, I don't think its command of his breaking pitches, its fastball command. He misses, and misses over the heart of the plate, and it gets crushed. I still can't figure out how to view his 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio, if that signifies that he is pitching better than his results indicate or what. His batting average on balls in play is very high, which suggests that bad luck is hurting him, and his line drive rate is in line with career norms. There's a chance - though I am not optimistic - that Smoltz does still have something left and will start to show it. But as I've said, these losses he inflicts while he searches for his old command is going to ultimately sink their chances.

There are two chances for the offseason as far as Buchholz goes:

He's packaged with someone else in a trade because he sucks the rest of the way and his stock goes way down.

OR

Regardless of how he does, Theo refuses to part with him, and he is in the rotation in 2010.

In his age 26 season, Buchholz can't putz around anymore. He'll get his chance, somewhere.

[ghost of miles]

Pettite and the Yanks took Halladay tonight, and Boston's up 2-1 over TB in the 8th...man, this weekend's Bosox-NY series is gonna be huge!

[Matthew]

Pettite and the Yanks took Halladay tonight, and Boston's up 2-1 over TB in the 8th...man, this weekend's Bosox-NY series is gonna be huge!

Tough start for Boston, losing in the 13th when Longoria jacks one out for the win. This might be a very difficult week for the Red Sox Nation.

[Dan Gould]

It will be, and it is the beginning of the end.

Or have you not been listening to the master prognosticator?

[Matthew]

It will be, and it is the beginning of the end.

Or have you not been listening to the master prognosticator?

Of course I listen to you Dan, then usually think the opposite!