2008-2009 Hot Stove Thread

[BERIGAN]

I hate to admit that I was taking John Henry's statement at face value when the consensus seems to be that this is all part of the dance, and that most still think that he'll end up in Boston. How could I forget Boras' use of the infamous "Mystery Team" gambit?

As for Teix' performance, I think I'll be able to deal. The problem I have is with people who insist he isn't clutch, he always fails when the game is on the line. Anyone who puts up the numbers he does helps his team win. Period. And anyway, if you look at his Clutch Stats splits, his highest OBP and Slugging come with two outs and RISP. He slugs .555 in Late and Close situations. Yeah, his highest BA comes with a marging of 4 or more runs but the bottom line is that, as is the case for virtually every player, his "clutch" numbers pretty much follow his overall numbers.

The problem is that when you are the big guy in a lineup, people think you should come through every time, and don't look at his performance rationally.

And Conrad, you're absolutely right that he isn't great in the first half (.277/.366/.511) vs the second half (.303/.390/.574) but I'd rather have a guy who gets hot during the pennant chase than a guy who consistently cools (like, say, Mikey Lowell, and until last year, Youkilis too).

BTW, clutch stats for Teixeira are here.

I agree, people put too much on some players to get the big hit, it's just in the roughly 1 year he was with the Braves, he just didn't do all that much, in spite of the nice RBI numbers. When Chippers on base in front of you nearly half the time, and you hit .271....well, it seems the wrong guy is considered the stud.... The beat writer was saying for months that a lot of folks in baseball didn't think he was a difference maker. But, put him on a club like the Red Sox where he couldn't be pitched around, and there were always runners on base, and yeah, he will make the team better.

Right now, I just feel sorry for the Angels, and the other teams...

[BERIGAN]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

[Neal Pomea]

Glad the Nationals didn't sign him. I thought that would have been the wrong move.

[tkeith]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

F*ck him. Bring on Lars Anderson. Yankees won't win anyway.

[zen archer]

The Yankees keep spending , Didn't they learn anything from the Tampa Rays ?

[WorldB3]

At least I can go back to hating the Yankees more the than Red Sox again. It will make my time here more enjoyable and hating the Yankee's just feels right.

go Sox!

Edit: check this out.

AROD will be 38-41 making 30 million

CC will be 34-35 making 21 million

Texeria will be 36-38 making 28 million

Thats a lot of cash for a lot of players past their prime. Stupid but if money is no object.

Edited December 23, 2008 by WorldB3

[alocispepraluger102]

where is mannie going, then?

[Matthew]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

Strangely enough, even with all the signings, I don't think the Yankees have improved all that much from last year.

[tkeith]

Don't know about Manny, but seriously, there's no sign these guys are done. I would have loved to have had Teix in Boston, but I'm not at all sad about avoiding another HUGE, interminable contract, particularly for a position that is easily filled. No matter, keep spending -- judgment day will come for that team at some point. $765-million committed to 4 players. Even my father, a life-long Skanks fan, is incensed by this.

[Chalupa]

Salary cap?

[zen archer]

Mark Teixeira was smart to sign with the Yanks, Boston is not the environment to play for that kind of money.

Look at Manny , people bitched about his 20 mil a year...... every year . He was the best hitter i have ever seen and

he did help us win 2 WS championships . And all people (around here) talked about is can they unload him with his salary.

And now they bitch about the $$$ JD Drew makes and how he is overpayed........they are all over paid (except youk).

The problem with these salaries is that it limits teams you can trade these players to down the road and i think the Sox

learned that lesson ......especially after the Lugo situation.

[alocispepraluger102]

werent the yankees just like week soliciting financial help in finishing their new stadium?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/06/y...blic_finan.html

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/n...es_yankees.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/sportsNews/...040155420080611

Edited December 24, 2008 by alocispepraluger102

[tkeith]

werent the yankees just like week soliciting financial help in finishing their new stadium?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/06/y...blic_finan.html

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/n...es_yankees.html

Ironic, isn't it?

As for the previous Manny tongue bath, uh, I mean post, I was definitely one of those that bitched about Manny's money. He's a *one* dimensional player. Yes, he would occasionally have a Swaboda-like defensive play, but basically, he was a liability on defense... and on the base-paths... and eventually in the clubhouse. He can hit like hell, no two ways about it. But to ignore the baggage is denial.

Teix will NOT have any easier time in NYC (ask the Giambino). When he's hitting .268 in May with low production, he'll feel the Bronx pressure, just as he would have in Boston. I'm *thrilled* to not have this team under the weight of another 8-year megadeal for umpteen million ducats per season. As I said yesterday, bring on Lars Anderson!

[alocispepraluger102]

werent the yankees just like week soliciting financial help in finishing their new stadium?

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/06/y...blic_finan.html

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/07/n...es_yankees.html

Ironic, isn't it?

As for the previous Manny tongue bath, uh, I mean post, I was definitely one of those that bitched about Manny's money. He's a *one* dimensional player. Yes, he would occasionally have a Swaboda-like defensive play, but basically, he was a liability on defense... and on the base-paths... and eventually in the clubhouse. He can hit like hell, no two ways about it. But to ignore the baggage is denial.

Teix will NOT have any easier time in NYC (ask the Giambino). When he's hitting .268 in May with low production, he'll feel the Bronx pressure, just as he would have in Boston. I'm *thrilled* to not have this team under the weight of another 8-year megadeal for umpteen million ducats per season. As I said yesterday, bring on Lars Anderson!

i would not want to be betting my money on a 300+ pound pitcher who has logged huge innings.

jeter is well past his prime.

the lightening rod is the lightening rod.

[BERIGAN]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

Strangely enough, even with all the signings, I don't think the Yankees have improved all that much from last year.

Well, IF CC and Burnett are healthy, their starting pitching must be better. Tex is a much better fielder than anyone they had there last year. Has more power than Abreu. And now they have tons of outfielders to trade off for relief pitching.

Edited December 24, 2008 by BERIGAN

[Matthew]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

Strangely enough, even with all the signings, I don't think the Yankees have improved all that much from last year.

Well, IF CC and Burnett are healthy, their starting pitching must be better. Tex is a much better fielder than anyone they had there last year. Has more power than Abreu. And now they have tons of outfielders to trade off for relief pitching.

It seems to me that the key is going to be Burnett, if he can come up big, he could put the Yankees over the top. As I said before, I don't see CC equaling Mussina's win total in 2009, and there is still the need for a quality three starter. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see what kind of effect on the team the move to a new park will have, maybe none, but you never know.

Edited December 24, 2008 by Matthew

[tkeith]

Tex has signed with the evil empire....and probably makes them the favorites. Gonna go out on a limb there.

Strangely enough, even with all the signings, I don't think the Yankees have improved all that much from last year.

Well, IF CC and Burnett are healthy, their starting pitching must be better. Tex is a much better fielder than anyone they had there last year. Has more power than Abreu. And now they have tons of outfielders to trade off for relief pitching.

It seems to me that the key is going to be Burnett, if he can come up big, he could put the Yankees over the top. As I said before, I don't see CC equaling Mussina's win total in 2009, and there is still the need for a quality three starter. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see what kind of effect on the team the move to a new park will have, maybe none, but you never know.

I gotta ask, why does Wang get no respect? He was the #2 starter for a couple of years and was reliable in that role. He could easily be the #3 guy (I mean, he has records of 8-5, 19-6, 19-7, 8-2 over his four years in MLB, and he gets no love) on *any* staff. What's funny is, I had to talk my brother-in-law in off the ledge. He was all set to give up and convert to Yankee nation (okay, he's a bit of a fool to begin with, but basically harmless). We ran down both rosters, position-by-position. Skanks got the edge for SS, 3B* (when we talked intangibles, this was a push at best, as Lowell is a god; given his injury, we gave it to PayRod), and C, assuming the Sox *don't* pull the trigger on Buchholz-for-Saltalamacchia. 1B is not a given, but I'd give them the nod there. Pitching: Sabathia-Beckett is a push, and it's less likely that Beckett will eat himself out of the league. Burnett-Lester is a no-contest -- Lester wins. Wang-Matsuzaka I'd call a push, but most would say Matsuzaka; he's definitely more of a power pitcher, where Wang is all about finesse. #4 starter is open for both teams, #5 starter will be a young guy on both teams. Sox have a stronger bullpen for middle relief, and closer is a push. Mo is great, so is Paps. These two teams are really well matched. One of them will have a $190-million+ payroll with marginal flexibility (their economy of scale is likely to change in the current economic crisis, and if it doesn't, MLB *will* get a salary cap). One of these teams was, as it sits, a playoff team last year. The other will need time to gel. I'll say it again, now -- The Skankees do NOT intimidate me, at all. I predict they'll make the playoffs, but I also predict they're out in the first round.

[Dave James]

At this point in his career, Wang has shown plenty of chops during the regular season and nothing beyond that. In Yankee land, that equates to no respect. It's the same thing A-Rod has been dealing with since he signed on. Is it legitimate? Yes and no, but only in New York are the expectations so high that what someone does in the post-season is all that matters. It's all about the hardware. One thing is certain, the expectations in 2009 are going to be off the charts. For sure it's going to mean the difference between on-field employment and life as a color commentator for Joe Girardi.

With regard to Texiera, what I'm hearing is that neither he or his wife wanted to play in Boston. So when the Yankees resurfaced at the 11th hour, all parties concerned were more than happy to make a deal.

It'll be interesting to see how things shake out in Boston. Apparently, they are unwilling to engage in negotiations with Kevin Youklis over a contract extension. That could make for an unhappy first baseman. Combine that with no Manny, real issues about the health of Big Papi and Mike Lowell, and you wonder exactly where the offense is going to come from.

Up over and out.

[tkeith]

At this point in his career, Wang has shown plenty of chops during the regular season and nothing beyond that. In Yankee land, that equates to no respect. It's the same thing A-Rod has been dealing with since he signed on. Is it legitimate? Yes and no, but only in New York are the expectations so high that what someone does in the post-season is all that matters. It's all about the hardware. One thing is certain, the expectations in 2009 are going to be off the charts. For sure it's going to mean the difference between on-field employment and life as a color commentator for Joe Girardi.

With regard to Texiera, what I'm hearing is that neither he or his wife wanted to play in Boston. So when the Yankees resurfaced at the 11th hour, all parties concerned were more than happy to make a deal.

It'll be interesting to see how things shake out in Boston. Apparently, they are unwilling to engage in negotiations with Kevin Youklis over a contract extension. That could make for an unhappy first baseman. Combine that with no Manny, real issues about the health of Big Papi and Mike Lowell, and you wonder exactly where the offense is going to come from.

Up over and out.

The Youk deal will play out -- they're just bidding on the idea that the economy will suffer. He likes it here and they'll time the deal right (not when he's pissed because they just offered the farm to a comparable player). That said, expect something in the 5-6 year range, for probably $12-15-mil, which is too much, but they did it to themselves. Would have made more sense to get the Youk deal done BEFORE the Teix play.

Lowell will be fine, it's Papi I'm concerned about. I think they're banking on the chance that Lars Anderson can be Papi's replacement if necessary. Still, I'm feeling good about this team. Next year? Well, that's a ways away now, isn't it.

[papsrus]

So ... I haven't dropped in in a while. Anything new with the Yankees or Red Sox?

Rays signed pitcher Joe Nelson. Don't know the first thing about him. Maybe it'll put them over the top though.

Milton Bradley still a possibility, I guess. Haven't heard a whisper though. There's definitely a pretty glaring need in RF, if he has his head on straight. Heck, even if he doesn't. Maybe they could use a little more "personality."

Other than that, about 7 weeks until pitchers and catchers report! ... and we got this dang World Baseball Classic deal again. I'm not a fan. I'm not sure you want your best players -- particularly pitchers -- going all out for country and pride and all that in March. Then again, maybe this Yankee All-Star team will get worn down a little.

[Dan Gould]

At least I can go back to hating the Yankees more the than Red Sox again. It will make my time here more enjoyable and hating the Yankee's just feels right.

go Sox!

Welcome back!

As for the Yanks - yeah, they might finally win #27 in the next couple of years, but does this roster look anything like the one from 96-2000? They've thrown a shitload of money at three players, and they've got three more (four really if you count Mo) who are, or will be very soon, the baseball equivalent of really old farts. Add in how long Teixeira and Sabathia are signed for and I think its undeniable that the odds are better that the Yanks will regret these contracts (A-Rod, Jeter's inevitable new deal, Posada, Sabathia, Teix and Burnett) than that they will win it all before the inevitable decline and fall of all of those guys.

I'm more than ready to see what happens on the field between the "'player development machine' + select free agents/trades" vs Steinbrenner's money.

[Dan Gould]

Well the Sox have finally done something this hot stove season, as Brad Penny himself has confirmed that he has agreed to a one year deal, pending a physical. They were reported to be in on both Penny and Smoltz as "low risk, high reward" signings, and I think I like Penny just a bit more overall. Until last year he pitched very well for L.A., if his arm is OK he should be a solid addition to the rotation, and much more likely to contribute than Bartolo Colon ever was. Smoltz would have more upside, obviously, but at his age and number of injuries sustained in his career, what exactly are the odds that Smoltz pitches, pitches well, and doesn't go down all season? I suspect Smoltz is at the end of the line (finally) but Penny is only 31 and would love to re-establish himself in order to sign an A.J. Burnett type deal next fall (and after Kennedy and Hughes fail again, couldn't you just see the Yanks doing just that?)

While I still think Masterson has potential as a starter, I'm fine with him working with Oki as the bridge to Paps and providing depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness. I'd like Buchholz to be the first guy to get the call as a replacement starter, and hopefully they hang on to Bowden too after they've figured out the catcher situation. Forget the Rangers' surplus - they're asking for the moon because they think the Sox are over a barrel. Make a deal for Benjie Molina as a stop-gap and then figure out where you are with your prospects in the next couple of years.

[zen archer]

....and they signed Josh Bard.....he could be a steal if healthy and a very reliable back up . But can he catch Wake ?

[zen archer]

Just found this info on a blog ...interesting.....

Brad Penny - will be 30 in May, guaranteed $5 million for one year, lifetime - 1460inn., 1.34WHIP, 4.06ERA, 94-75.

AJ Burnett - 32, guaranteed $82.5 million for 5 years, lifetime - 1376 inn., 1.28WHIP, 3.81ERA, 84-76. Both have injury histories. Burnett has won more than 12 games once. Penny has done it 3 times. Is Burnett worth $77 million more than Penny?

[Dan Gould]

Just found this info on a blog ...interesting.....

Brad Penny - will be 30 in May, guaranteed $5 million for one year, lifetime - 1460inn., 1.34WHIP, 4.06ERA, 94-75.

AJ Burnett - 32, guaranteed $82.5 million for 5 years, lifetime - 1376 inn., 1.28WHIP, 3.81ERA, 84-76. Both have injury histories. Burnett has won more than 12 games once. Penny has done it 3 times. Is Burnett worth $77 million more than Penny?

He obviously stays healthier than Burnett but I don't think Penny has the same potentially dominating stuff. His K rate is 6.36 per 9 IP (Burnett averages two more K's per 9 IP; Beckett's K rate is a touch higher than that) so he isn't the shut-down guy, he needs a good defense (which he'll get). But he was an ace for the Dodgers, if you assume he comes down a notch in the A.L., I'm perfectly happy putting an N.L. "Number 1" into the fourth or fifth spot behind Beckett, Lester and Dice.

Not sure what the Bard signing means - its not a guaranteed contract so there's no real commitment (Bard doesn't get the full contract unless he is on the roster at the end of spring training, if cut I think he gets half his salary). But I doubt they brought him in to catch Wake, and we know Tek won't do it, so does this mean they are ready to move on without the Captain, and may go after someone else to platoon with Bard?