Death of CDs?

[riverrat]

Are we going to see the death of the CD format as digital file storage plummets in price and people move to lossless music files on their computer?

By "CD format" I mean CD, DVD-A, SACD- basically any format stored on a 5" disc. I understand that DVD-A and SACD do not seem to have a bright future. But what about CD in general?

Availability of USB DACs to allow easy integration of PCs with existing stereo gear is rapidly expanding. These units are increasing in audio quality and dropping in price. The time will soon be here when PC-based systems rival the audio quality of high-end CD players, if that time has not already arrived.

So what is future of CDs? Will CDs become "collectible" as demand and production of them drops off, as already seems to be happening? Even if mass produced titles are not collectible, what about limited edition jazz titles, e.g. JRVGs and XRCDs?

It was thought for awhile that computers would displace books, but that has proven not to be the case. Will enough people still prefer to own "hard copies" of their music to keep CD alive, perhaps as a niche market, and maintain markets for rare titles?

What say you all?

Edited January 22, 2008 by riverrat

[Teasing the Korean]

The vinyl resurgence is actually helping to kill the CD format. How's that for irony?

[Alexander]

I think that, like vinyl, CDs will probably never completely die. Even while most of us enjoy the freedom that digital music and digital music players offer, there will always be a subset that wants to have a "hard copy" at home, if only as a backup. Vinyl is proof that no matter how "outdated" a technology may be, there will always be enough people to keep it afloat. I'm sure that, somewhere, there are people who are devoted to laserdisc, betamax, or even eight-track tape. I don't know where they get these things, but as long as there is a demand, someone will fill it.

But the marketplace will change, as it has changed before. How it will change is hard to predict (as it always has been). No one could have forseen, when the internet was filled with arguments over SACDs vs DVD-A, that the predominent format would become the humble MP3 file. Record stores will vanish from the landscape. Big Box stores will shrink their music sections. But websites that sell CDs and LPs will still exist, and will probably continue to do so as long as people own CD players and turntables. And people will continue to buy CD players and record players as long as they have something to play on them.

The paradigm of the music industry has changed in ways that no one could have predicted when CDs entered the marketplace in the mid-80s. When CDs emerged, they were supposed to supplant tapes and LPs. Everyone in the industry was in agreement on this point. After a time, LPs and tapes would no longer be manufactured and sold, and that pretty much came to pass. What they could not have forseen was the way the internet (just emerging in the late 80s) would allow collectors markets to thrive. What would have had to surivive in print ads at the back of collectors magazines, limited in circulation and scope, could now exist in real-time and accessable to anyone with an internet connection. Had the internet existed during the 50s, I am convinced that the 78 market would have allowed for the manufacture of new 78s on a large scale.

[porcy62]

I think that, like vinyl, CDs will probably never completely die. Even while most of us enjoy the freedom that digital music and digital music players offer, there will always be a subset that wants to have a "hard copy" at home, if only as a backup. Vinyl is proof that no matter how "outdated" a technology may be, there will always be enough people to keep it afloat. I'm sure that, somewhere, there are people who are devoted to laserdisc, betamax, or even eight-track tape. I don't know where they get these things, but as long as there is a demand, someone will fill it.

But the marketplace will change, as it has changed before. How it will change is hard to predict (as it always has been). No one could have forseen, when the internet was filled with arguments over SACDs vs DVD-A, that the predominent format would become the humble MP3 file. Record stores will vanish from the landscape. Big Box stores will shrink their music sections. But websites that sell CDs and LPs will still exist, and will probably continue to do so as long as people own CD players and turntables. And people will continue to buy CD players and record players as long as they have something to play on them.

The paradigm of the music industry has changed in ways that no one could have predicted when CDs entered the marketplace in the mid-80s. When CDs emerged, they were supposed to supplant tapes and LPs. Everyone in the industry was in agreement on this point. After a time, LPs and tapes would no longer be manufactured and sold, and that pretty much came to pass. What they could not have forseen was the way the internet (just emerging in the late 80s) would allow collectors markets to thrive. What would have had to surivive in print ads at the back of collectors magazines, limited in circulation and scope, could now exist in real-time and accessable to anyone with an internet connection. Had the internet existed during the 50s, I am convinced that the 78 market would have allowed for the manufacture of new 78s on a large scale.

Well put.

[Shawn]

For those ages 10-14 right now I would say the format is already dead.

People my age (late 30's) who saw the progression from vinyl to cassette to CD will probably still prefer to have something "physical" to hold onto. I do like having a computer fully stocked with music but I still feel like there's something missing...IMO.

[porcy62]

For those ages 10-14 right now I would say the format is already dead.

People my age (late 30's) who saw the progression from vinyl to cassette to CD will probably still prefer to have something "physical" to hold onto. I do like having a computer fully stocked with music but I still feel like there's something missing...IMO.

...those pop and click and the hassle of properly setting the cartdrige...

BTW I'd set the age between 10-18, maybe up to 20 y/o

Edited January 22, 2008 by porcy62

[ejp626]

For those ages 10-14 right now I would say the format is already dead.

People my age (late 30's) who saw the progression from vinyl to cassette to CD will probably still prefer to have something "physical" to hold onto. I do like having a computer fully stocked with music but I still feel like there's something missing...IMO.

I don't miss the CD per se, but I do miss even the reduced size cover art, liner notes and the ability to restore my music files if my computer/iPod crashes. In this last category, eMusic is 1000% times better than iTunes or the new Amazon site. I don't understand why the first two seem so out of reach for the majority of music sites.

[riverrat]

I don't miss the CD per se, but I do miss even the reduced size cover art, liner notes....

That is at least one thing that will keep me hanging on to my CDs, for now anyway. I've considered keeping a separate MSWord file with the cover art and perhaps stuff like the AMG or other reviews of the session in the same file as the music, and opening that up on the screen when that music is playing.

Putting something like that together for my entire collection would be a GIANT time sink though. And it is probably only a matter of time before some similar service is available online. I know that there are already functions with iTunes and probably other media players for showing cover art, but I haven't checked into it, and I am guessing the availability of art for obscure jazz titles is more limited.

[Aggie87]

Not tactile enough for me.

[Eric]

I am 46 and always go for the CD unless something is only available online. I like the cover art, the notes and I like being able to take something out to the car.

My 15 year-old has a sizable music collection ... almost 100% digital.

Edited January 23, 2008 by Eric

[jimi089]

You know, I don't understand why we're not getting more liner notes and meta-info with digital music instead of less. Since the method of delivery is so cheap in comparison to printing, there should be cover art, maybe several covers, photos of the band, interviews, and detailed liner notes. I think it's a huge missed opportunity on the part of companies selling digital music to make it a more attractive option.

[ejp626]

You know, I don't understand why we're not getting more liner notes and meta-info with digital music instead of less. Since the method of delivery is so cheap in comparison to printing, there should be cover art, maybe several covers, photos of the band, interviews, and detailed liner notes. I think it's a huge missed opportunity on the part of companies selling digital music to make it a more attractive option.

I absolutely agree but you almost only get these by going through a band's website and perhaps ArtistShare. It does seem crazy to me, since the marginal cost would essentially be 0. Emusic is now including a tiny jpeg of the cover, but I find it way too small to bother with.

[jimi089]

They need to start treating digital downloads as a worthy product instead of the bastard love child of physical media.

[Uncle Skid]

I totally agree with that, Danimal, but what incentive would "they" have to make a "worthy product" when most people are happy with 128k bps-encoded MP3's?

[John L]

I think that the CD format is dying and will die. Even to the degree that there is still a market for a similar hard transferable digital medium, CDs are already large and bulky compared to alternative digital storage. As technology progresses, that will become more and more the case.

I can imagine a future purchase of the complete works of Miles Davis. It is a large book, with pictures, discographical information, and essays. At the beginning of every chapter is a little chip that contains the music being discussed in high quality WAVE. You will be able to put that chip directly into a computer or digital player. So who needs CDs?

Edited January 23, 2008 by John L

[ejp626]

I can imagine a future purchase of the complete works of Miles Davis. It is a large book, with pictures, discographical information, and essays. At the beginning of every chapter is a little chip that contains the music being discussed in high quality WAVE. You will be able to put that chip directly into a computer or digital player. So who needs CDs?

Well, since there will only be one US music company in the future, that might be possible, though they would charge $750 for it. And a week later Lonehill would come out with the same thing for $25.

[ejp626]

I can imagine a future purchase of the complete works of Miles Davis. It is a large book, with pictures, discographical information, and essays. At the beginning of every chapter is a little chip that contains the music being discussed in high quality WAVE. You will be able to put that chip directly into a computer or digital player. So who needs CDs?

Well, since there will only be one US music company in the future, that might be possible, though they would charge $750 for it. And a week later Lonehill would come out with the same thing for $25.

Actually that reminds me that there is an outfit on the web that sells complete runs of radio shows as mp3s on a CD for about $5. I haven't ordered any yet, but I was pretty seriously thinking about getting the Benny Goodman shows (Madhattan Room and Camel Caravan among others). And if the quality is listenable then maybe some of the comedy or mystery shows.

[GA Russell]

Actually that reminds me that there is an outfit on the web that sells complete runs of radio shows as mp3s on a CD for about $5. I haven't ordered any yet, but I was pretty seriously thinking about getting the Benny Goodman shows (Madhattan Room and Camel Caravan among others). And if the quality is listenable then maybe some of the comedy or mystery shows.

I bought quite a few from him a few years ago. Google OTR in MP3 by G. L. Mercer.

He just uses the best quality recordings that he has. Some, like the Harry Limes, have excellent sound. Some don't.

Radio Spirits is more expensive, but they remaster only the best sounding shows available, so they sound like they were originally broadcast today.

[The Magnificent Goldberg]

Actually that reminds me that there is an outfit on the web that sells complete runs of radio shows as mp3s on a CD for about $5. I haven't ordered any yet, but I was pretty seriously thinking about getting the Benny Goodman shows (Madhattan Room and Camel Caravan among others). And if the quality is listenable then maybe some of the comedy or mystery shows.

Oooo! Do they do old BBC comedy shows like "I'm sorry, I'll read that again"?

MG

[mikeweil]

I think we might end up with two camps: Those who really care for the music and real good audio quality, and those who simply use music as a soundtrack to their lives - the latter is the majority, and for them MP3s or any other convenient storage medium will do - remember that the smaller size was an important factor in the marketing of cassettes and CDs. SACDs or DVDAs were a kind of audiophile upgrade of the CD, and will only stay for a specialized segment of the market. Go to http://www.sa-cd.net and take a look at the new releases in SACD format and you will get the idea.

The only problem I see in a specialized audiophile CD market like we already have for LPs, is that only a tiny fraction of the wealth of excellent music we are talking about here (or of any other style) will be available.

Edited January 23, 2008 by mikeweil

[Teasing the Korean]

Whichever way it goes, it's really fun watching the record labels scramble, isn't it?

[BruceH]

For those ages 10-14 right now I would say the format is already dead.

People my age (late 30's) who saw the progression from vinyl to cassette to CD will probably still prefer to have something "physical" to hold onto. I do like having a computer fully stocked with music but I still feel like there's something missing...IMO.

Indeed...my kids are already there. But I like to have an object I can hold.

[Enterprise Server]

The vinyl resurgence is actually helping to kill the CD format. How's that for irony?

Good. Although CD's offer great flexibility (making your own compilations or having access to otherwise obscure recordings), there is nothing like a hard copy of a record (gate fold and laminated is the ultimate!) and playing it. Yeah, ya gotta get up and turn it over but the music is totally superior to a CD.

[Guest Bill Barton]

Whichever way it goes, it's really fun watching the record labels scramble, isn't it?

The *big* ones anyway...

[The Magnificent Goldberg]

Whichever way it goes, it's really fun watching the record labels scramble, isn't it?

The *big* ones anyway...

Indeed. One doesn't actually see small ones scrambling, does one? They either sink without trace or are sufficiently sure of their constituency (perhaps eg Delmark, HighNote/Savant) to manage to get along.

MG