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Week 16 picks
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/20/3downnation-cfl-picks-will-alouettes-or-redblacks-rebound-in-critical-east-division-clash/

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Hamilton - Toronto previews

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/toronto-argonauts-7-6-week-16-preview-vs-hamilton-tiger-cats-4-9-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/hamilton-tiger-cats-4-9-week-16-preview-vs-toronto-argonauts-7-6-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-games-today-september-20th-2024-saskatchewan-vs-calgary-hamilton-vs-toronto-tv-channels-odds/

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Sask - Calgary previews

0-6-1 vs. 0-4-1

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/saskatchewan-roughriders-5-7-week-16-preview-vs-calgary-stampeders-4-8-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/calgary-stampeders-4-8-week-16-preview-vs-saskatchewan-roughriders-5-7-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/game-day-somethings-gotta-give-as-riders-and-stamps-both-look-to-shake-off-winless-skids/

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Montreal - Ottawa preview
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/montreal-alouettes-10-2-1-week-15-preview-vs-ottawa-red-blacks-8-4-1-keys-to-the-game-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/

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GA Russell's Week 16 picks

Toronto over Hamilton (The Argos have been inconsistent all year, but I have a hunch they will do well at home.  However, the Ticats are improving, and the Argos will need to play well.)

Calgary over Sask (I like the Riders, who have been losing close games since July 19.  But the Stamps perform much better at home [they are winless on the road].  The Riders have won only 2 of 7 road games.  CFL games between two teams on losing streaks are often terrific!)

Montreal over Ottawa (The Redblacks are undefeated at home, but they have injury problems this week.)

Winnipeg over Edmonton (I'll be rooting for the Elks, but the Bombers seemed to have solidified more.  However, the Bomber QB situation is dangerous with Collaros often injured, and his only back-up Streveler out for the year.  Ford will start for Edmonton.  His twin will start at DB for Winnipeg, so that might be interesting.)

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For the remainder of the season, the Argos have the toughest schedule, and the Riders the easiest.

Maybe the Stamps, Elks and Riders are in danger of missing the playoffs because they have had the hardest schedules up till now!

 

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Edited by GA Russell
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Armstead's 207 yards is a new league record:  most yards rushing by a player in his first game with a team.

https://3downnation.com/2024/09/22/riders-ryquell-armstead-sets-cfl-record-for-rushing-yards-in-debut-with-new-team/
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/riderville-roundup-september-22/

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Montreal 24....Ottawa 12

The Redblacks were thoroughly unimpressive.  If the power rankings were based on this weekend's games alone, Ottawa would be last.  The defense was decent, but no better.  The offense showed nothing.

The Alouettes clinched (at least) second place.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/21/recap-montreal-24-ottawa-12/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/21/alouettes-clinch-home-playoff-date-with-win-over-ottawa/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/21/montreal-alouettes-clinch-home-playoff-game-with-win-over-redblacks/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/21/ottawa-redblacks-roll-over-late-in-loss-to-alouettes-13-other-thoughts/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/22/alouettes-win-battle-of-the-east-will-host-a-playoff-game-seven-other-thoughts/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/montreal-alouettes-clinch-home-playoff-date-with-win-over-ottawa-redblacks-1.2177540
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-scores-today-montreal-alouettes-24-ottawa-redblacks-12-alouettes-defense-dominates-in-road-win/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/21/3-stats-that-defined-montreals-week-16-win-over-ottawa/

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Winnipeg 27....Edmonton 14

The game was tied 10-10 after three.  Winnipeg led 13-10 with ten minutes left.

Who were the imposters wearing the green jerseys?  The Elks' woeful defense did very well till the fourth quarter, while their great offense did nothing.  Ford sure didn't look like anybody special.

Oliveira scored his first two touchdowns of the year.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/22/recap-winnipeg-27-edmonton-14/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/21/blue-bombers-stifle-elks-for-sixth-straight-victory/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/21/winnipeg-blue-bombers-shut-down-tre-ford-in-win-over-edmonton-elks-12-other-thoughts/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/winnipeg-blue-bombers-blitz-edmonton-elks-for-sixth-straight-win-1.2177621
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-scores-today-winnipeg-blue-bombers-27-edmonton-elks-14-bombers-pull-away-late-in-road-victory/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/21/3-stats-that-defined-winnipegs-week-16-win-over-edmonton/

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Power Rankings

https://3downnation.com/2024/09/23/3downnation-cfl-power-rankings-ticats-roar-back-into-contention/
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/piffles-power-rankings-week-17/

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Week 16 reviews

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/23/landrys-5-takeaways-from-week-16-3/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/23/mmqb-its-like-they-never-left/

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In university news, York beat Varsity Saturday 19-17.  It was their first non-forfeiture win since they beat Varsity in October of 2019.
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/21/york-lions-beat-toronto-varsity-blues-to-record-first-non-forfeiture-win-since-2019/

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Now let's look at the standings.

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Every team has played the same number of games.  Every team has four games left.  

In the West, every team has one fewer win than the team above it.  Mathematically, the Stampeders have a good chance to make the playoffs.  The problem is that they haven't looked good for a very long time.

In the East, for a team that has been in last place the entire season, the Ticats are looking very strong.  It is very conceivable that they can catch the Argos.  The Ticats have played their three games against the Argos, and won every one of them.

An 8-10 record is good enough to make the playoffs, so I always look at "the all-important loss column."  Edmonton, Calgary and Hamilton cannot afford to lose two of their last four games.  But as we can see from yesterday's post, Edmonton and Calgary have among the easiest remaining schedules.

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PS - In recent years, the league has made a special effort to appeal to the indigenous (American Indian) folks.  The logos shown in the standings column are each team's logo stylized in the indigenous manner.

Edited by GA Russell
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Week 17 picks

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/prediction-time-cfl-ca-writers-week-17-picks-3/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/weekly-predictor-jumping-on-board-with-the-boatmen/

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Power Rankings
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/amsoil-power-rankings-a-land-of-opportunity/

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Playoff Scenarios

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/111th-grey-cup-playoff-scenarios-als-redblacks-bombers-eye-spots/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/cfl-playoff-picture-remains-murky-in-west-heading-into-week-17-1.2178586
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/24/ottawa-redblacks-winnipeg-blue-bombers-looking-to-clinch-playoff-berths-in-week-17/

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In the wake of such poor showings by the Ottawa and Edmonton offenses Saturday, it looks like Masoli and MBT will start this week.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/report-jeremiah-masoli-takes-first-team-reps-on-tuesday/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/jeremiah-masoli-to-start-for-ottawa-redblacks-against-roughriders-1.2178662
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/24/ottawa-redblacks-to-start-qb-jeremiah-masoli-vs-saskatchewan-roughriders-report/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/report-mcleod-bethel-thompson-to-start-for-elks-vs-bombers/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/edmonton-elks-qb-mcleod-bethel-thompson-expected-to-start-in-rematch-with-winnipeg-blue-bombers-1.2178697
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/24/mcleod-bethel-thompson-to-start-for-edmonton-elks-vs-winnipeg-report/

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Colton Hunchak has signed with the Riders.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/riders-sign-national-wr-colton-hunchak/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/24/saskatchewan-roughriders-sign-former-calgary-stampeders-receiver-colton-hunchak/

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Fan voting for this year's All-CFL team starts today.  Vote here:

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/make-it-count-all-cfl-fan-vote-now-open/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/24/time-to-vote-players-make-their-case-for-all-cfl/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/make-it-count-all-cfl-fan-vote-now-open-1.2178759

 

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I don't have to tell you that football season records (and also career records) are inflated because they play more games now.

When I was growing up, the season was 14 games long.

Today every team has played 14 games.  So let's look at the current stats.

https://www.cfl.ca/stats/

Mitchell has thrown for 4,000 yards.

Oliveira has rushed for 1,000 yards.

McInnis and Hardy have both caught for 1,000 yards.

Streveler has scored (by rushing) 10 touchdowns.

McInnis has scored (by receiving) 7 touchdowns.

I bet somewhere in a closet the league has the record book of the final year of the 14-game schedule, which would show who holds these records for a 14-game season.

Edited by GA Russell
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Week 17 picks

https://3downnation.com/2024/09/27/3downnation-cfl-picks-will-riders-rb-ryquell-armstead-run-for-revenge-over-redblacks/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/27/from-the-editors-desk-were-talkin-playoffs-in-week-17/
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/piffles-picks-week-17/

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Week 17 previews

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-games-today-september-27-2024-edmonton-elks-vs-winnipeg-blue-bombers-hamilton-tiger-cats-vs-bc-lions-tv-channels-odds/

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/edmonton-at-winnipeg-preview/

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/hamilton-tiger-cats-5-9-week-17-preview-vs-bc-lions-7-7-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/

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GA Russell's Week 17 picks

Winnipeg over Edmonton (The Bombers have won their last six.)

BC over Hamilton (The Ticats have won their last three, and the Lions have been unimpressive since their great start.  But I'll go with the Lions at home.  If the Ticats win this, then they are for real, regardless of their bad start before they hired Chris Jones to run the defense.)

Sask over Ottawa (The Redblacks have been foundering, so Masoli will start.  The Riders' long losing streak was mostly made up of close losses.  Now that it's over, I look for them to win at home.)

Montreal over Toronto (The Argos have been inconsistent all year.  They couldn't beat the Ticats in three tries.  So I expect the Als to be able to deal with them.)

 

Edited by GA Russell
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Winnipeg 55....Edmonton 27

Where was James Taylor singing Steamroller Blues?  Winnipeg led 31-0 with 7:58 left in the second quarter.  Collaros went on to throw a personal best six touchdown passes.  With the victory, the Bombers have clinched a playoff spot.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/recap-winnipeg-55-edmonton-27/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/27/blue-bombers-clinch-playoffs-with-dominant-showing-against-elks/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/surging-winnipeg-blue-bombers-blitz-edmonton-elks-clinch-playoff-spot-1.2180354
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/27/winnipeg-blue-bombers-blast-edmonton-elks-to-clinch-playoff-berth-10-other-thoughts/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/28/elks-regress-to-old-ways-in-blowout-loss-to-bombers-six-other-thoughts/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/27/3-stats-that-defined-winnipegs-week-16-win-over-edmonton-2/

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Hamilton 32....BC 29

Another two hours of boring football (following the Bombers game), with the Lions leading 16-0 at the half, and 23-8 after three.  Then...the Ticats woke up.  They scored 18 straight points to take the lead, and the Lions needed a field goal on the last play of regulation to tie the game.  In OT, Milanovic-Litre scored the walk-off TD from the one.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/recap-hamilton-32-bc-29/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/ticats-claim-overtime-victory-after-late-comeback-against-bc/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/hamilton-tiger-cats-claw-out-win-over-bc-lions-in-overtime-1.2180414
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/28/b-c-lions-pull-their-punches-clock-out-early-in-overtime-loss-to-ticats-10-other-thoughts/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/28/lucky-pair-of-boveralls-tiger-cats-overcome-16-point-deficit-to-defeat-lions-in-overtime-six-other-thoughts/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/3-stats-that-defined-hamiltons-week-17-win-over-bc/

Edited by GA Russell
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I have added a few links to the two Friday games.

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Sask 29....Ottawa 16

The Riders controlled the game.  Ottawa is sinking.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/recap-saskatchewan-29-ottawa-16/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/riders-claim-second-straight-victory-with-win-over-redblacks/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/roughriders-down-redblacks-to-vault-over-lions-in-cfl-s-west-division-1.2180590
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/29/redblacks-attack-toothless-against-riders-12-other-thoughts/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-scores-today-saskatchewan-roughriders-29-ottawa-redblacks-16-riders-defense-shines-in-home-victory/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/3-stats-that-defined-saskatchewans-week-17-win-over-ottawa/

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Toronto 37....Montreal 31

With the Ottawa loss, the Als clinched first place.  There ought to be a word for when a team's position in the final standings is locked, so that a win or a loss has no effect.  Maybe "meaningless game" is it.  Every year, when a win means something for one team, and it is a meaningless game for the other, you don't know how serious the one team's attempt to win is.

In this case, it was a great game with a number of lead changes.  The Argos won it by kicking two field goals in the final 2:20.  The Argos have been playing since 1873, and Hajrullahu set a team record by kicking 8 field goals.  This ties the league record.

All of the teams are below .500 on the road except the Als.  This was the Als' first road loss since early September of last year.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/recap-toronto-37-montreal-31/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/argonauts-best-alouettes-at-home-in-back-and-forth-affair/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/liriim-hajrullahu-kicks-record-tying-eight-fgs-to-lead-toronto-argonauts-past-montreal-alouettes-1.2180685
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/29/alouettes-lose-to-argos-still-secure-first-in-east-eight-other-thoughts/
https://3downnation.com/2024/09/29/argos-run-it-by-committee-kick-for-history-in-huge-win-over-alouettes-13-other-thoughts/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-scores-today-toronto-argonauts-37-montreal-alouettes-31-argos-edge-als-in-high-scoring-affair/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/09/28/3-stats-that-defined-torontos-week-17-win-over-montreal/

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The tickets to this year's CFL Awards in Vancouver have sold out three days after going on sale.
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/pr-2024-grey-cup-festival-ticket-sales-off-to-roaring-start-as-cfl-awards-sells-out/

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Now let's take a look at the standings.
https://www.cfl.ca/2024standings

We know that Montreal and Winnipeg have mathematically clinched a spot in the playoffs.

An 8-10 record is good enough to make the playoffs.  By that standard, Ottawa and Toronto have also made it. 

Edmonton's back is against the wall.  Calgary's situation isn't much better. 

Sask, BC and Hamilton have three more games.  Sask and BC need one more win, and Hamilton needs two more.

Notwithstanding their records, Ottawa, Calgary and BC seem to be the weakest teams currently.

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I found last week's Plays of the Week.

 

Edited by GA Russell
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Week 18 picks

https://3downnation.com/2024/10/04/3downnation-cfl-picks-can-ticats-notch-fifth-upset-victory-over-soaring-bombers/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/predictions-cfl-news-hub-writers-week-18-picks/
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/piffles-picks-week-18/

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Playoff scenarios
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/ottawa-redblacks-bc-lions-saskatchewan-roughriders-can-clinch-playoff-spots-in-week-18-1.2183422

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Week 18 previews

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/sione-teuhema-headlines-3-matchups-to-watch-on-friday-night-football/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/hamilton-tiger-cats-mitchell-cfl-1.7342628
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/hamilton-tiger-cats-rookie-receiver-shemar-bridges-says-his-2024-cfl-campaign-is-finished-1.2183887

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/bc-lions-7-8-week-18-preview-vs-calgary-stampeders-4-9-1-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds-keys-to-the-game-player-to-watch/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-stampeders-bc-lions-playoffs-at-stake-1.7342169

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/elks-play-host-riders-to-close-out-week-18/
https://3downnation.com/2024/10/04/riders-lose-rec-shawn-bane-jr-rb-ryquell-armstead-for-elks-game/

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128 are eligible for Most Outstanding Rookie.
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/128-first-year-players-eligible-for-2024-most-outstanding-rookie-award/

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10 MOP contenders
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/mop-watch-tyrice-beverette-among-top-contenders/

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GA Russell's Week 18 picks

This is a tough week because the underdogs have lost some good players to injuries.  Nevertheless, I am picking the three underdogs.  Maybe if one of them wins, I will look like a genius!

Hamilton over Winnipeg (The Bombers are #1 in the power rankings.  They are on a roll, and look very, very good.  If they win, they will clinch first place.  But the Ticats are on a roll too, and they need the win more than the Bombers.)

Calgary over BC (Dave Dickinson showed his temper to the press this week, which is usually a bad sign for a team.  The Stamps need the win to stay in the playoff hunt.  But the Lions have quietly been pretty bad since Rourke rejoined the team.  I think it is fair to say that Lions have more talent, but are in more disarray than the Stamps.)

Edmonton over Sask (Over the past two weeks, the Elks showed that the Bombers are better than them.  But the Riders aren't the Bombers, and I think the Elks will show that they are better than what they did last week.  Both teams need the win.)

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, GA Russell said:

I'll post the results tomorrow when the articles are up, but here's where we stand.

The Bombers won, so they have clinched (at least) second place.

The Ticats lost, so the Redblacks have clinched a playoff spot.

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Sask - Edmonton previews

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/elks-game-preview-the-postseason-chase-continues/
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/saskatchewan-roughriders-7-7-week-18-preview-vs-edmonton-elks-5-10-prediction-depth-chart-injuries-odds/

Edited by GA Russell
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Winnipeg 31....Hamilton 10

The game wasn't as bad as the score would indicate; but as the game progressed, the Bombers got stronger and the Ticats got weaker.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/recap-winnipeg-31-hamilton-10/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/oliveira-powers-blue-bombers-to-win-over-tiger-cats/
https://3downnation.com/2024/10/04/winnipeg-blue-bombers-bully-hamilton-tiger-cats-to-clinch-home-playoff-game-nine-other-thoughts/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/brady-oliveira-leads-winnipeg-blue-bombers-to-road-win-over-hamilton-tiger-cats-1.2184082
https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-scores-today-winnipeg-blue-bombers-31-hamilton-tiger-cats-10-bombers-dominate-on-the-road/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/3-stats-that-defined-winnipegs-week-18-win-over-hamilton/

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BC 32....Calgary 15

BC led 9-8 after three.  The Lions' defense scored two touchdowns in the fourth to break the game open.  Be sure to look for those two plays in the recap highlights.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/05/recap-bc-32-calgary-15/

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/05/lions-inch-closer-to-playoff-spot-with-win-over-stamps/
https://3downnation.com/2024/10/05/b-c-lions-prove-its-better-to-be-lucky-make-good-on-takeaways-in-win-over-stampeders-xx-other-thoughts/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/lions-snuff-out-stampeders-playoff-hopes-with-win-1.2184116
https://cflnewshub.com/scores/cfl-scores-today-bc-lions-32-calgary-stampeders-15-lions-roar-back-with-fourth-quarter-surge/
https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/05/3-stats-that-defined-bcs-week-18-win-over-calgary/

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A Canadian country singer named Owen Riegling will perform for the Grey Cup's pre-game show.

https://www.cfl.ca/2024/10/04/owen-riegling-to-shine-at-siriusxm-grey-cup-kickoff-show/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/canadian-country-star-riegling-to-headline-siriusxm-grey-cup-kickoff-show-1.2184070

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As mentioned above, the Redblacks are in the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
https://3downnation.com/2024/10/04/ottawa-redblacks-clinch-postseason-berth-for-first-time-since-2018/

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Sask - Edmonton previews

https://cflnewshub.com/cfl-news/cfl-games-today-october-5th-2024-saskatchewan-roughriders-vs-edmonton-elks-tv-channels-odds/
https://www.tsn.ca/cfl/edmonton-elks-host-saskatchewan-roughriders-with-cfl-playoff-chances-hanging-by-a-thread-1.2183898
https://pifflespodcast.com/blog/game-day-playoff-positioning-up-for-grabs-as-riders-visit-elks/

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Again, I'll post the articles tomorrow when they are up.

The Riders beat the Elks.

With their win, the Riders have clinched a playoff spot.

The Riders' win prevents the Bombers from clinching first place.

With the Elks' loss, the Lions have clinched a playoff spot.

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Now let's look at the standings.
https://www.cfl.ca/2024standings

The Argos have three games left, and the Ticats two.  If the Argos lose all three and the Ticats win both of their two, the teams will be tied at 8-10.  Hamilton would win the tie-breaker because the Ticats beat the Argos all three of their games.

It looks to me that the Argos' magic number is one.  If the Argos win one more, or if the Ticats lose one more, the Argos will clinch the last playoff spot.  

*****

With the Riders and the Lions clinching playoff spots, the Stampeders and the Elks are eliminated.  The most both the Elks and the Stampeders can win is 7, and the Redblacks and the Argos have already won 8; so neither the Elks nor the Stamps will cross over to the eastern playoffs this year.

The Riders, the Lions, the Redblacks and the Argos have all won 8.  The most the Ticats can win is 8.  The worst record a third-place western team could finish would be 8-10.  We know that the Ticats cannot finish better than that, so there will be no eastern crossover to the western playoffs.

*****

All this is just my calculations, not the official word from the league.

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