2007 Hot Stove League Thread

[Dan Gould]

Well, there is no chance of the Sox signing him, but if the Yankees make the move on Santana and aren't prepared to have Damon be the starting CF, I imagine the Yanks could go after Andruw, and their batting approach is the same thing - take, take, take.

At the risk of creating even more talk of the Sox, what or rather who will end of replacing Manny after '08??? Or do you think there is a chance they might try to keep him?? Man, a 37-38 year old Manny in left might make a 43 YO Bonds look good!

Well, number one, I believe there's a chance that Manny will have a bounce-back season next year and may have an option year picked up. Otherwise, my hope had remained that Miguel Cabrera would replace him in the lineup, if not in LF. Barring that, who knows?

[Chalupa]

Nice move by the Phillies....

Phils offer arbitration to free-agent Rowand

By Todd Zolecki

Inquirer Staff Writer

The Phillies offered salary arbitration to free-agent centerfielder Aaron Rowand before last night's midnight deadline.

That means the Phillies will receive two top draft picks if Rowand signs with another team. Because he is classified as a Type A free agent, the team that signs Rowand would forfeit a top pick for him. Depending on how that team finished in 2007, that could be a first- or second-round pick. The Phillies also would receive a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds.

The Phillies said they have stayed in contact with Rowand's agent and have not ruled out bringing him back, but it is believed Rowand will sign elsewhere because he is seeking a lucrative multiyear contract since centerfielder Torii Hunter received a five-year, $90 million deal last month from the Los Angeles Angels. Phillies general manager Pat Gillick said last week that he thinks the Phillies' offense would remain formidable with Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth in the outfield.

But if Rowand, 30, accepts arbitration by the Dec. 7 deadline, he is considered signed with the Phillies for 2008.

[Dan Gould]

I didn't think there was any question that the Phils would offer arbitration.

[Chalupa]

Well yeah it seems like a no brainer but it was weird that they waited up until the last minute.

[Dan Gould]

Well yeah it seems like a no brainer but it was weird that they waited up until the last minute.

I think everyone does. A lot of teams wait to sign free agents to see if there are draft consequences. I doubt anyone who was interested in Rowand didn't anticipate losing a pick.

[Dan Gould]

Holy shit - now Olney is reporting that the Red Sox have told the Twins that they will part with Ellsbury - but it means removing Lester from the package. I read somewhere today - I check so many sources I can't recall where, but I think it might have been one of the NY papers - that the Twins have been hard after Ellsbury all along, that they don't really regard Melky Cabrera as a good replacement for Hunter, so maybe this tilts things back in the Sox favor.

But I have a big problem going back to Coco in the lineup. Defensively I know he'll be great but with no Jacoby in our future, the best lineup will probably be Pedroia/Youk, in one order or another. No speed there, but it was the lineup that won the World Series, so ... Still, I'd really like to see what Ellsbury can do in the majors. Bob Ryan of the Globe has said that he thinks he's a future .340 - 200 hits - 50 stolen bases type of player. It would suck if he did that elsewhere. On the other hand, Rosenthal wrote a blurb on foxsports that quoted a couple of AL people as saying "what's all the hype about Ellsbury? He'll be a good CF - not a great one" so if they turn out to be right, this is a great trade.

Leaves us in an interesting situation pitching wise, too, with a potential 7 good to outstanding starters (plus Tavarez! ) I guess that Wake could be in the bullpen, or else Buchholz or Lester won't get their permanent ML start until 2009, when Schilling is gone.

Or, here is the obvious possibility: The Sox sweetened their offer last week, and the Yanks blinked big time by deciding to add Hughes. Supposedly the Twins still think that the third person should be an upper level prospect like Ian Kennedy and the Yanks are balking at that. Its quite possible that the Sox are simply trying to make this a very expensive acquisition by the Yankees by forcing them to give in, or else risk seeing Santana go to Boston.

I have to admit that overall, it would be cool to see the Sox nab Santana while keeping their two best pitching prospects.

There's one thing for sure: this is going to be a damn exciting, active Owner's Meeting. Stay tuned, and keep your seatbelts fastened!

[Dan Gould]

Well, Rosenthal has an update as well:

He says that Santana has told the Twins that he won't approve any mid-season trade, so no deadline deal, its either trade him this off-season, try to re-sign him, or accept the two draft picks as compensation. I think that makes it a near certainty that the Twins will trade him this week.

He also reports:

Ellsbury, sources say, has been available to the Twins from the start of their discussions with the Red Sox, but not in a deal with Lester. The Sox have told the Twins they are willing to be creative if the Twins are that adamant that Ellsbury is included in the deal.

That's news that no one in Boston has been reporting. It was widely believed that Ellsbury and Buchholz were off the table under all circumstances. I guess not.

And now the Yanks have given the Twins a deadline: Their offer comes off the table on Monday (SI) or Tuesday (Olney). So I imagine that we won't be waiting around for the final decision.

[zen archer]

Youk being part of the deal i heard on the boston fox channel they claimed from

sources in the Sox organization.

Tonight Bob Lobel reported Ellsbury as part of deal but no Lester .( Dan Roche reports on the sox for

wbz and he is a real insider).

I also believe that Bucholz is part of the deal / ...have you heard this Dan ?

[Dan Gould]

Youk being part of the deal i heard on the boston fox channel they claimed from

sources in the Sox organization.

Tonight Bob Lobel reported Ellsbury as part of deal but no Lester .( Dan Roche reports on the sox for

wbz and he is a real insider).

I also believe that Bucholz is part of the deal / ...have you heard this Dan ?

You have an advantage in that you are in the Boston market so you get local news trying to "break" the story. But the long and short of it is that everywhere I check, everyone seems to understand that the Red Sox line in the sand is that they will never consider letting Jacoby and Clay go together, and they are absolutely adamant that Buchholz will not be dealt. Heck, they won't even put up Jacoby and Lester, so why would they consider Buchholz?

Since no one else anywhere has reported Youk being part of the deal, I will assume that the Boston Fox station doesn't know squat.

What is unclear now is is they are offering Jacoby but no Lester (and never Buchholz), who is Minnesota "replacing" Santana with? I would have to imagine that with no Lester, both Masterson and Bowden would be included, along with Lowrie. But Masterson and Bowden are still a year away, at least.

If pitching is tantamount than the Twins should take the Yankees offer - but with Ellsbury on the table, they should hold their feet to the fire to get a good prospect as the third piece.

Otherwise, if the Twins really do want Ellsbury, maybe the Sox can get Santana while keeping the top two pitching prospects.

[Dan Gould]

Well, the Globe has an update, and it basically is that no one is untouchable to land Santana. Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lester - any individual player could be had for Santana. But if you pick one, the remainder of the package cannot include anyone else from that group.

Me likey that approach, though I'd really prefer if they didn't pick Buchholz. Something about a guy who looks that good in his first few appearances makes me think he's got a chance to be special.

Yankees are hanging tough on their end - Hughes and Melky, but a third player won't be anyone special.

Looks like the ball is firmly in the Twins court.

[Dan Gould]

Well, Yankee fans have the first decent news of the Owner's Meetings - Andy Pettitte will return for one more go-round.

Now, if they can get Santana, they could have a rotation of Santana/Pettitte/Wang/Mussina/Kennedy and if they have any brains at all, Joba in the bullpen as the bridge to Mo. That's a pretty good rotation, at least 1-3 and there's potential that Kennedy will excel, the only problem is that they are still looking to replace Pettitte and Mussina in 2009. Maybe by then they can solve the bullpen and make Joba a starter again.

But right now, the Yankee options in the bullpen are horrible and there's nothing in the free agent market that isn't as likely to stink as it is to excel.

Speaking of which, the name to watch in the Owner's Meetings is the Pittsburgh lefty, Marte(?). 60 appearances against lefties, zero home runs. Certainly looks like the best reliever potentially available in trade.

[Matthew]

Well, Yankee fans have the first decent news of the Owner's Meetings - Andy Pettitte will return for one more go-round.

Now, if they can get Santana, they could have a rotation of Santana/Pettitte/Wang/Mussina/Kennedy and if they have any brains at all, Joba in the bullpen as the bridge to Mo. That's a pretty good rotation, at least 1-3 and there's potential that Kennedy will excel, the only problem is that they are still looking to replace Pettitte and Mussina in 2009. Maybe by then they can solve the bullpen and make Joba a starter again.

But right now, the Yankee options in the bullpen are horrible and there's nothing in the free agent market that isn't as likely to stink as it is to excel.

Speaking of which, the name to watch in the Owner's Meetings is the Pittsburgh lefty, Marte(?). 60 appearances against lefties, zero home runs. Certainly looks like the best reliever potentially available in trade.

I'm not particularly impressed with Pettitte/Mussina/Kennedy in that rotation. I think Pettitte & Mussina can't last a half season, much less than a full season. Santana and Wang would be a good 1 & 3 pitchers on the staff, outside of those two, I don't see too much.

Don't bother asking about the Mariners -- anyone need an overpriced, slow first baseman, who can't field his position?

Edited December 4, 2007 by Matthew

[Dan Gould]

Don't bother asking about the Mariners -- anyone need an overpriced, slow first baseman, who can't field his position?

Sorry, but the Yanks already have Giambi.

Seriously though, nothing is official but it appears that the Yankees have dropped out of the bidding and will turn their attention to Dan Haren (according to the Daily News) and the Globe broke the news that the Sox and Twins exchanged medical information on Jon Lester and Santana, so the Globe is suggesting that a deal could happen this morning. Still no word on who is involved for sure though. Certainly exchanging medical files is a good sign, I just hope that Theo didn't bend on the "only one top prospect" stance.

Meanwhile, it will be real interesting to see how Beene deals with the Yankees. He's never been one to give away his prized young stars, and I would expect that he would never back off an initial, minimum demand of Hughes + Cabrera. If Yankee fans had a problem giving up Hughes for a two-time, lefty Cy Young winner, how are they going to feel about a guy who is only a couple of years younger and far less accomplished? Wouldn't it make more sense to just stick with the young guys you've developed, preach patience til your blue in the face, and see what happens? I mean, Hughes could become Haren in a couple of seasons and give you Haren-level performance years before Haren became decent. Its just silly IMO to give up the same players for Haren, but that is what old Billy is going to keep asking for.

[Dan Gould]

Well, since time is running out I gotta get the latest Owner's Meeting news out there:

According to the Boston Herald, the Sox and Twins will resume "serious" negotiations in the Santana sweepstakes. Yankees are reportedly out, and no one has stepped in to replace them as serious suitors with anything close to an acceptable offer. There are at least two Sox packages being discussed, one centered on Jon Lester (the Twins saw no red flags in his medical file) and the other centered on Jacoby Ellsbury. The team has held firm to the insistence that they will not give up any two of their top three prospects, yet it looks like they are very close to a deal.

I don't know if its true, but Jayson Stark quoted an NL GM as saying that if the Sox get Santana, they'll be "the greatest team in the history of the friggin Universe."

[zen archer]

The Lester package includes Coco and Masterson and some other guy i never heard of.

So this would be good news cause it keeps Ellsbury in Boston.

Edited December 4, 2007 by zen archer

[HolyStitt]

La Velle E. Neal III (from the Star Tribune) states in his blog:

Tuesday morning: Is there a deal?

Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 The Twins negotiated with the Yankees and Red Sox throughout the night. I packed up around 1 a.m. and was headed for my hotel. Then I got word of this.

It could mean that the Red Sox and Twins have reached agreement on a deal involving Johan Santana.

I’ve spent the offseason speculating on names and possible transactions. When it’s time to write about the finalization of a deal, there’s no time for educated guessing. I prefer to be as certain as possible about the names involved.

Around 2 a.m. I contacted someone with knowledge of the negotiations. That person had heard that the deal was for four players: Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Justin Masterson. Notice that Jacoby Ellsbury is not part of the deal.

I didn’t run with it then because I really wanted to be sure. But I want to let you know this morning that’s what I’m hearing. I’m still trying to get further confirmation of the potential deal. Maybe the exchange of medicals isn’t as serious of a step as we think. Maybe a name has been switched (i.e. Rincon, Juan for Morlan, Eddie).

What makes this more difficult is that, if true, Santana’s agent, Peter Greenberg, has to swing into action and negotiate a contract extension. Until then, both the Twins and Red Sox may barricade themselves in their suites, forcing a Smokin’ Aces showdown with the media.

In this case, most of my information has come from trusted individuals from other clubs because the Twins have kept their plans, thoughts, whims and dreams hermetically sealed down here.

So save your final reactions until we make sure of the players involved.

[HolyStitt]

If this is the deal I can accept this trade. It helps the Twins in the long run and the short term. I just hope that the Red Sox can work out a long term deal with Johan because it seems like it could be a good place for him.

Heck, any deal that makes the Sox "the greatest team in the history of the friggin Universe" can't be a bad thing since our the Timberwolves have put the Celtics close to that title as well!

[Dan Gould]

If this is the deal I can accept this trade. It helps the Twins in the long run and the short term. I just hope that the Red Sox can work out a long term deal with Johan because it seems like it could be a good place for him.

I'm seeing Yankee fans elsewhere who believe that the Sox will refuse to put the cash on the barrelhead for Johan. Obviously they didn't learn the lesson from Dice-K. They thought that it was all about keeping him out of a Yankee uniform yet they really did want him and they got their price. Yanks fans will get that same lesson again, I am sure.

Glad that you are satisfied with the deal as it apparently stands. By which I mean, I am glad that you don't mind taking Coco instead of Jacoby. The rest of the package has a great deal of upside. The Twins can grab a lot more young talent if they go ahead and trade Joe Nathan, too.

[HolyStitt]

The Twins can grab a lot more young talent if they go ahead and trade Joe Nathan, too.

There has been talk of them doing that but it seems reserved for after Santana has been traded. It seems Rincon is also being shopped.

[HolyStitt]

I wonder how this changes things in the Santana trade talks (I have heard the Angels I have re-joined the mix):

Tigers set to acquire Cabrera, Willis

Maybin, Miller and four other prospects would go to Florida

By Joe Frisaro / MLB.com

NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The Marlins and Tigers are on the verge of completing a blockbuster deal that will send Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit for a package of six players.

A source familiar with the negotiations has told MLB.com that the Tigers are parting with outfielder Cameron Maybin and lefty starter Andrew Miller and four prospects for the final two players from the Marlins' 2003 World Series championship squad.

The deal was all but finalized as of late afternoon at the Winter Meetings.

The Tigers swooped into the sweepstakes for Cabrera and Willis on Tuesday and put together a package of players that the Marlins felt too tempting to pass up.

Cabrera and Willis were both rookies on the Marlins '03 title team. Both are eligible for arbitration through the 2009 seasons. Cost has become a concern for Florida, making the two All-Stars expendable.

Cabrera is a four-time All-Star who comes off a season where he batted .320 with 34 home runs and 119 RBIs. The 24-year-old made $7.4 million this past season and he is in line to earn more than $10 million in 2008.

Willis is coming off a 10-15 season with a 5.17 ERA. While the D-Train, who made $6.45 million in 2007, is coming off his worst season, he compiled 205 1/3 innings, marking his third straight 200-plus season.

Maybin and Miller were both first-round Draft picks of the Tigers, Maybin in 2005 and Miller in 2006. Both have tasted the Major Leagues.

Maybin, 20, made his debut in August and appeared in 24 games, hitting .143 with one home run in 49 at-bats. However, he made a rapid rise through the Tigers system, batting .304 with 10 homers in 83 games for Class A Lakeland before making a brief stop at Double-A Erie.

Miller, 22, made 13 starts for Detroit last season, going 5-6 with a 5.69 ERA. In 78 Minor League innings in 2007, he allowed 71 hits and struck out 61 batters. He was drafted out of the University of North Carolina.

[Chalupa]

The FBI should put out an APB for the Tigers' GM. He just fleeced the Marlins.

[Quincy]

Regarding the Marlin/Tiger trade, WOW!

Baseball Prospectus last year compared Maybin to Eric Davis, a 30/30 CF with all the tools. Miller has been compared to a lefty Carlos Zambrano. Have to see who the others are, but wow, what a remarkable trade! May take a few years to see how it works out for Florida.

I noticed that the Rays (no more Devil in them) sent Elijah Dukes to the Nats for a LHP pitcher yesterday. As this follows the trade of Delmon Young it looks like character matters to the organization.

[HolyStitt]

I would have never thought of the Tiger's as a team in the hunt for either of these players. Maybe it is just another sign of how much the dynamics have changed toward the AL Central.

It is kind of weird that Dontrelle Willis will no longer have a chance to bat with every start.

[Quincy]

It is kind of weird that Dontrelle Willis will no longer have a chance to bat with every start.

Shucks, he may have been on pace to have the most HR hit as a pitcher. He's never had a year without hitting at least 1. Glad to see one of the "other" old franchises steal some headlines from the big 2.

[Dan Gould]

Well, as far as the big two go, apparently reports about the Angels being involved on Santana were erroneous. Their GM told the club's beat reporters that it isn't true at all. And Lil' Boss reiterated to the NY Times that they are out of the bidding. So it looks as though it comes down to this: The Twins need to decide whether they like the deal that is on the table enough to pull the trigger and trade their best pitcher. The Herald reported earlier today that the Twins want to get this done by tonight, so I expect we'll have an answer. Will Carroll has reported that its "all but done" and apparently the Twins designated someone from their 40 man roster for assignment - usually a sign that something will happen soon. Come to think of it, with a 72 hour window to negotiate with Santana, its not like they had to clear space on their roster immediately, either. So who knows - but I think the odds are probably about 75% that this first step gets completed tonight.

As for the Tigers, I have to agree with the WOW comment. Willis has been trending downward, has a high-maintenance pitching motion that in my opinion will blow up his arm sooner rather than later, but he probably figures to do well at least initially against teams that haven't faced him before. And Cabrera in that lineup, with Miggy and Sheffield, makes it an extremely dangerous lineup. Should the Tiger pitching staff bounce back, they become instant favorites in the Central, and in my opinion, even if Santana comes to Fenway, strong contenders for the pennant.

This is a very bad day for the defending AL champions.