2007 Hot Stove League Thread

[Dan Gould]

Well my point was that they gave away one of the few bright spots in a profoundly mediocre offense, and while I did not know if they had someone to replace him in the system, I'd be surprised if this kid plays as well. O-Cab scored 100 runs and drove in over 85. Pretty good numbers for a rookie to replace. And isn't Figgins best suited to the "super-sub" role? I thought that he isn't exactly great when he plays every day at one spot. I do think you make a good point about the 4-5 pitchers. Garland is a better alternative, certainly. Let Saunders and Santana fight it out for the number 5 spot.

Ends up the youngster named to eventually replace Cabrera is a kid named Wood. But they also have Izturis, and the kid I mentioned, and even a couple of other bodies so they wouldn't have to start super-sub Figgins there. So they can throw a lot of wet noodles at the wall & see what sticks! Cabrera has really upped his OBP & hitting the past 2 years. Good thing y'all won another WS, otherwise you'd hear more of the "why did you get rid of him" talk.

It's early too, so there may be more trades & signings to come.

This is true, and I stand by my prediction that they will go all in on winning the Cabrera sweepstakes, otherwise it seems as though their best hope is to equal the offense from last year (and that will be a challenge), and that was only sufficient to win a decidedly mediocre division.

[BERIGAN]

Interesting breaking news, from expected to least expected:

Glavine returns to the Braves, for 1 year and 8 million

Was pretty much expected that this would happen, I have to wonder though whether Glavine has reached the end of the line with his slop. When he can't get that outside pitch called a strike, he tends to get hammered. But it makes sense to return to Atlanta for one more go round, and the Braves upgrade the rotation at minimal cost.

Lowell about to re-sign with Red Sox for three years/around 37 million

I am most pleased with the fact that Theo didn't have to add a fourth year. Hitting at Fenway, I expect that he can continue to produce above his career norms for the duration of the contract but at the same time, I have to somewhat regret that this takes us out of the running for Miguel Cabrera (I have to assume that the team decided that they need to save their bullets for a run at Johan Santana). Which leads me to the least expected bit of news:

.....

Yeah, a fair number of fans were not crazy about going after Glavine(Since he left, and wasn't here to win 300) but, we know John Schuerholz dragged his feet both times, and had serious financial constraints both times....but, there really wasn't much on the market...and he had an ERA below 4, until those last 3-4 starts.

Thing is, Booby Cox will think he is an innings eater(Which he is to a point) and will push him to 7-8 innings in Sept, so that if the Braves make the playoffs, it will once again be an easy 3 and out...which will just be chalked up to bad luck as always....

And Dan, I really, really feel sorry for the evil empire Red Sox having to settle for a 3rd baseman that drove in 120 last year.....

Edited November 20, 2007 by BERIGAN

[Dan Gould]

And Dan, I really, really feel sorry for the evil empire Red Sox having to settle for a 3rd baseman that drove in 120 last year.....

Hey, anyone who wants to question if there is a difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox just have to look at how each team handled its free agents. The Yankees threw money and years at Rivera and Posada until they said "OK" and committed to paying A-Rod a ridiculous salary that will never be eclipsed by anyone else, until he's all of 42 years old.

On the other hand, the Red Sox set reasonable values on their two free agents, stuck to them, and ultimately signed them both.

Which team is in better shape for 2008, and equally important, beyond?

I think the answer is clear. The Sox have youth - both established and on the cusp - plus veteran talent and they aren't on the hook for any of the vets beyond their sell-by date (well, Ortiz may age rapidly due to his body type, and Drew is signed til he's 36 or 37 - but still, compared to a Yankee roster that will soon enough feature a 41 year old closer, 40 year old catcher, and 37-38 year old SS, LF and fourth outfielder, I think Theo has GM'd rings around Cashman and the Steins.

[Chalupa]

Lowell turned down $50M and 4 years from Phils....

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/11635037.html

[Dan Gould]

Lowell turned down $50M and 4 years from Phils....

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/11635037.html

Interesting. That hasn't been reported in Boston, but it means that he did get the offer he was looking for, and from a club with a home stadium that would have fit his swing almost as well as Fenway does. I guess he really did want to stay in Boston when push came to shove.

[Dan Gould]

Can the Tribe catch lightning in a bottle (or is that Japan)?

Indians Sign Japanese Closer Kobayashi

Given his reputation in Japan, I don't doubt that this guy should be a very solid reliever, and I'd hope that at some point they will wise up and replace Borowski with Betancourt or this guy. A very good move for the Tribe.

[Dan Gould]

So now the Angels sweep in and grab Torii Hunter for five years and 90 million? After overspending for Gary Matthews Jr last year? Color me confused, but I guess it will work out overall if all four outfield bats are in the lineup at a time, rotating the DH among them. Unfortunately, Hunter will never be a true impact bat - though I'd expect he'll hit better than Matthews.

[Tim McG]

Not a lot of movement around the MLB of late.

I guess we'll have to wait until after the Holidays to find out who is going where.

[Tim McG]

My suggestions for trades, free agent signings and whatnot:

Torii Hunter needs to go to the Giants.

A-Rod needs to hire a new agent.

Gagne needs to retire.

And Mike Metheny is a free agent...?

[alocispepraluger102]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-o...p&type=lgns

[Chalupa]

"He was a great father. He loved that boy and his wife both more than anything in the world. That son of his was the apple of his eye," Weissmann said. "He just was really looking forward to everything that a father shares with a son."

That is so incredibly sad.

R.I.P., Joe.

[HolyStitt]

From La Velle E. Neal III's blog (who is a baseball writer for the Minneapolis Star Tribune):

Twins close to landing Delmon Young [updated]

Wednesday, November 28th, 2007

The Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are close to finalizing a multi-player deal, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions. The deal could be announced as soon as today.

The main pieces changning teams would be outfielder Delmon Young, the first overall pick in 2003, and righthander Matt Garza. But indications were strong on Wednesday that as many as six players could be involved.

In addition to Garza, the Twins would send Tampa Bay shortstop Jason Bartlett and reliever Juan Rincon for Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie. Pridie was with the Twins during spring training of 2006 as a Rule 5 pick.

Twins players for several weeks had expected the club to deal for either Young or B.J. Upton.

Young, 22, hit .288 last season with 13 homers and 93 RBI and is considered one of the better young hitters in the game. Harris, 27, hit .286 with 12 homers and 59 RBI.

[uPDATE]: This would be the first big move by Twins General Manager Bill Smith since taking over for Terry Ryan in September. And it’s not expected to be his last.

The Twins are talking to teams about staff ace Johan Santana and could deal closer Joe Nathan as well.

The Twins would be expected to land at least one starting pitcher if Santana and/or Nathan is dealt. That would make up for the loss of Garza, a top pitching prospect. The Twins also need a center fielder and third baseman.

It was learned on Wednesday that the Twins have shown some interest in free agent center fielder Aaron Rowand, but it’s unclear if they’ve made a contract offer.

The addition of Young could lead to the Twins non-tendering outfielder Craig Monroe, who was dealt to the Twins from the Cubs a few weeks ago.

Check back here for more details - or when the deal is officially announced.

[ghost of miles]

Why re-signing A-Rod made economic sense for NY

[T.D.]

Why re-signing A-Rod made economic sense for NY

Interesting article. The author is much more financially savvy than I expected! Thanks for posting it.

I particularly like the analysis leading up to Figure 3, where he computes a net present value using a plausible 12.5% (OK, somewhat conservative, but not that conservative considering that Citigroup just made a deal to pay 11% on convertible debt) discount rate. In this case, the NPV of Yankee earnings from the A-Rod contract is a paltry $13 MM over the 10 years. So it may be profitable for NYY, but far from a home run, so to speak. The luxury tax is a big factor in the analysis!

I'd argue that on a fully risk-adjusted basis, if we consider the probability of premature erosion of skills (a la Bernie Williams) or career-shortening injury, the expected profit from the contract would be somewhat less. I'm too lazy to do this analysis, however, as some Monte Carlo simulation might be required.

Edited November 29, 2007 by T.D.

[Dan Gould]

A Pioneer-Press report has the Sox now as the favorites to land Santana, and they don't give up Buchholz or Ellsbury in the deal:

A little birdie says the Boston Red Sox have become the favorite in the Johan Santana trade sweepstakes.

The Twins would receive four players for the Twins' two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, 28.

Others would be shortstop prospect Jed Lowry, 23; left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, 23; and right-handed pitcher Justin Masterson, 22.

Before a deal could be made, the Red Sox would have to have time to negotiate a contract extension with Santana, 28, who can become a free agent after next season and could have a market value as high as $150 million over six years.

Lowry did not play in the major leagues this year but is considered ready and is a good-fielding shortstop who also can hit. Lowry had a slugging percentage of .500 at Class AA and Class AAA this year.

Lester made a comeback from non-Hodgkin's lymphoma a year ago and is said to be cancer-free.

Masterson, 6 feet 6, 245 pounds, had 59 strikeouts in 58 innings at Class AA Portland.

The New York Yankees don't have the prospects available who the Twins figure have a reasonable chance to play in the major leagues by the end of 2008.

http://www.twincities.com/ci_7584709?sourc...;nclick_check=1

Masterson was coached by Tony Gwynn at San Diego State and he considers him a can't-miss pitcher with a killer sinker. He definitely rates third or fourth behind Lester and Buchholz in the pitching prospect list.

Lowry is actually not considered any great shakes defensively (at this point) but appears to be a very good offensive force, with the usual excellent plate discipline.

I have to say I really like this deal if if the Sox can get Santana signed to an extension beforehand. It would be tough to part with Lester, I'd really like to see what he can do when fully recovered (he's up to 218 now - when he reported to Spring Training last year, he was at 200, so you know he still needed the time to recover from the cancer treatment), and Lowry looks to be someone who could have rid us of Julio Lugo sooner rather than later.

But Santana in the rotation and Ellsbury and Buchholz still on the roster is a huge thing.

[papsrus]

At the risk of bringing the proceedings to a crashing halt ....

Rays are seemingly finally doing something to address their pitching, signing Troy Percival and getting Matt Garza from the Twins in a deal that also brings in SS Jason Bartlett and minor league reliever Eduardo Morlan. The Twins get a good young player in Delmon Young in the Garza trade. Nice deal for them, too, although how this might figure into the Santana situation is anyone's guess. Could they be looking to deal Young in a package for more pitching?

The Rays had nowhere to go but up as far as the bullpen is concerned, but this could noticeably improve both the starting rotation and bullpen.

The running gag last year was that if a Rays' starter didn't hand a 10-run lead to the pen, it was as good as lost. i haven't checked but they must have led the league in giving up late-inning leads.

Could be ready to challenge Baltimore!

Plans for a new park look promising as well.

[Dan Gould]

At the risk of bringing the proceedings to a crashing halt ....

Rays are seemingly finally doing something to address their pitching, signing Troy Percival and getting Matt Garza from the Twins in a deal that also brings in SS Jason Bartlett and minor league reliever Eduardo Morlan. The Twins get a good young player in Delmon Young in the Garza trade. Nice deal for them, too, although how this might figure into the Santana situation is anyone's guess. Could they be looking to deal Young in a package for more pitching?

The Rays had nowhere to go but up as far as the bullpen is concerned, but this could noticeably improve both the starting rotation and bullpen.

The running gag last year was that if a Rays' starter didn't hand a 10-run lead to the pen, it was as good as lost. i haven't checked but they must have led the league in giving up late-inning leads.

Could be ready to challenge Baltimore!

Plans for a new park look promising as well.

I can't quite figure out how the Rays could have an easier time than the Marlins securing a stadium, but that abomination they play in now has to go. In my opinion, the reality is that the Rays have already developed a good young core of everyday players; anything that improves the rotation and the bullpen should help them make a significant move upward. In a few years, I think its possible that the Rays will have a very good, highly competitive team.

[papsrus]

I can't quite figure out how the Rays could have an easier time than the Marlins securing a stadium, but that abomination they play in now has to go. In my opinion, the reality is that the Rays have already developed a good young core of everyday players; anything that improves the rotation and the bullpen should help them make a significant move upward. In a few years, I think its possible that the Rays will have a very good, highly competitive team.

This was the topic of some discussion at work yesterday. I guess it helps that the governor is from St. Pete. Although I think Jeb claimed the Miami area as his home and that didn't seem to help them. They Rays did have better attendance for the year than the Marlins, just barely. The park would help the downtown waterfront, so I'm sure the business community is on board. We'll see what happens.

[zen archer]

Red Sox are really pushing for Santana they have added Youk to the mix . Crisp, lester,

Youk and some minor league prospects. Youk is only making 400,000 a year so he is cheap

and will be for a few more years.

This deal could get done ?

[Chalupa]

Yanks are ready to offer Hughes...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135740

[Dan Gould]

Red Sox are really pushing for Santana they have added Youk to the mix . Crisp, lester,

Youk and some minor league prospects. Youk is only making 400,000 a year so he is cheap

and will be for a few more years.

This deal could get done ?

What is your source, because I can't find any indication that Youk would be included. Making that deal creates a gigantic hole in the infield and lineup and makes no sense, unless they've got some surprising first base candidate in mind. It makes sense from Minnesota's perspective because they need a third baseman and Youk could go back to playing third. But I would have a very different opinion of this trade if a key part of the lineup, as opposed to a centerfielder who has been replaced and a bunch of prospects, gets moved.

On the other hand if this pushes the Yankees to part with Melky, Hughes and two more, I'll deal, provided that we make the right deal with Oakland to get Dan Haren. Even with Santana in New York, I'd take our rotation over theirs.

[Dan Gould]

Hey Conrad, what's this I hear that the Braves didn't offer salary arbitration to Andruw Jones???? Isn't he a type A free agent, even with the poor 2007 season? I can't believe that the possibility that he would accept would prevent them from insuring that they get a first round pick plus a sandwich pick in the draft. That's what the Braves need since they refuse to spend the big bucks on salaries - effective drafts that build up the system. Even if he slumped to being a Type B free agent, that is still worth a sandwich pick.

In my opinion that move is dumb, dumb, dumb.

[BERIGAN]

Hey Conrad, what's this I hear that the Braves didn't offer salary arbitration to Andruw Jones???? Isn't he a type A free agent, even with the poor 2007 season? I can't believe that the possibility that he would accept would prevent them from insuring that they get a first round pick plus a sandwich pick in the draft. That's what the Braves need since they refuse to spend the big bucks on salaries - effective drafts that build up the system. Even if he slumped to being a Type B free agent, that is still worth a sandwich pick.

In my opinion that move is dumb, dumb, dumb.

No, believe it or not, he was only a Type B pick.....some of the reasons why the Braves didn't offer it to Andruw, from the blog of the AJC beat man David O'Brien....A bit long. The man likes to write, and I shortened it!!!

With Andruw and Dotel, I’d say there’s no way the Braves will offer arbitration to either. They don’t want to be stuck with perhaps a $14-16 mill salary for Jones, whose agent, Scott Boras, sent the Braves into scramble mode to meet payroll when he had client Greg Maddux accept arbitration from the Braves years ago, when the Braves thought there was no way the veteran pitcher would do so.

Everyone I’ve talked to believes as I do, that Boras has far overestimated the market for Jones, and that it’s a pipe dream to think the 10-time Gold Glove winner is going to get anywhere near $20 million a year in a long-term contract.

If Boras doesn’t think Jones can get more for Jones than, say, $14 mill per in a four-year contract (just tossing around figures, haven’t heard any proposed offers yet), then what’s to stop Boras from having Andruw accept arbitration?

I know what he’s told me and others about not taking one-year offer for Jones, but if Andruw accepted arbitration, Boras could simply say Andruw made the decision on his own, against Boras’ advice, because Andruw had such love for the Braves and a desire to come back for one more season with Atlanta in hopes of them reconsidering a long-term commitment to him in the future, etc., etc.

But the Braves can hope a team signs him before Saturday, since that would have given Atlanta a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, the only way they’ll get compensation for Jones without offering him arbitration. They wouldn’t get a first-round pick from the team that signed him before Saturday, because Jones is only a Class B free agent, not a Class A.

(By the way, I know it sounds strange that the 2005 MVP runner-up, a player who hit 92 homers during the 2005-06 seasons and has 10 Gold Gloves, would slip from the Class A ranks, but the latest collective bargaining agreement had revisions to the system and reduced the Class A free agents from the top 30 percent to the top 20 percent. Only the last two seasons are considered for such ranking purposes, so anything Jones did before 2006 doesn’t factor into this matter).

He then mentioned another good reason they didn't last night......

And there was one other thing about Andruw: He’s a 10-and-5 guy. If he wasn’t, the Braves could have offered him arbitration at much less risk, because if he’d accepted they could have traded him to San Diego or Los Angeles or another team interested in Andruw, and let that team work out a contract with him.

As a 10-and-5 guy, Andruw could veto any trade the Braves tried to make if they’d offered him arbitration and he took them up on it. Again, not a good risk for a guy who’s only bringing back a sandwich-round draft pick as compensation if another team signs him.

I know Andruw's numbers don't look that bad(what, 30 more RBI's than JD Drew?), trust me, he had the worse 26 Homer, 94 RBI season you could have. He hit .169 with runners in scoring position and 2 out. Hell, I could have done that! I think a lot of fans would have revolted if they had re-signed him. He didn't even look at film apparently....he kept talking about doing that in the offseason.

You know what would be interesting? If he signed for one year with the Sox. Working with Manny in the batting cage, and watching Manny, Ortiz, and everyone else take, take, take...seeing if he could learn from that. Really, all the dude has ever done is get by on his skill alone. Baseball almost came too easy for him. Don't get me wrong, a very tough guy, never misses time, but seems to be from the Yogi Berra school of I can't think and hit at the same time.....

[Dan Gould]

Well, there is no chance of the Sox signing him, but if the Yankees make the move on Santana and aren't prepared to have Damon be the starting CF, I imagine the Yanks could go after Andruw, and their batting approach is the same thing - take, take, take.

[BERIGAN]

Well, there is no chance of the Sox signing him, but if the Yankees make the move on Santana and aren't prepared to have Damon be the starting CF, I imagine the Yanks could go after Andruw, and their batting approach is the same thing - take, take, take.

At the risk of creating even more talk of the Sox, what or rather who will end of replacing Manny after '08??? Or do you think there is a chance they might try to keep him?? Man, a 37-38 year old Manny in left might make a 43 YO Bonds look good!