The Baseball Thread 2007

[BERIGAN]

...

Braun should be rookie of the year (IMHO).

by a landslide. 31HR's, 85 RBI's, .325 BA, and he didn't come up til May 25th!!!! Still has the Brewers record for homers by a rookie.

[MartyJazz]

...

Braun should be rookie of the year (IMHO).

by a landslide. 31HR's, 85 RBI's, .325 BA, and he didn't come up til May 25th!!!! Still has the Brewers record for homers by a rookie.

I really like Dustin Pedroia in the AL for Rookie of the Year. In the final regular season game between the Yanks and the Sox, the walk he worked off of Mariano in the 9th inning with two outs to get Ortiz up with the bases loaded after falling behind 0-2, was worthy of a hardened veteran. Does he have any serious competition in the AL?

Edited September 19, 2007 by MartyJazz

[Patrick]

I really like Dustin Pedroia in the AL for Rookie of the Year. Does he have any serious competition in the AL?

I don't think anyone else is close.

[BERIGAN]

I really like Dustin Pedroia in the AL for Rookie of the Year. Does he have any serious competition in the AL?

I don't think anyone else is close.

Well, no doubt he is the front runner, but Delmon Young has 12 HR's 90 RBI's and a .292 BA.

[Patrick]

Not that it should necessarily be a requirement for ROY, but only 5 AL rookies had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title: Pedroia, Young, Akinori Iwamura (TB), Alex Gordon (KC), and Reggie Willits (LA). Their stats

Pedroia: 487 AB, 7 HR, 49 RBI, .320 BA, .383 OBP, .439 SLG

Iwamura: 457 AB, 7 HR, 30 RBI, .284 BA, .355 OBP, .407 SLG

Gordon: 506 AB, 15 HR, 59 RBI, .257 BA, .323 OBP, .431 SLG

Willits: 410 AB, 0 HR, 34 RBI, .290 BA, .393 OBP, .341 SLG

Young: 610 AB, 12 HR, 90 RBI, .290 BA, .319 OBP, .408 SLG

Young leads in RBI but not HR, despite having 100+ more ABs than Gordon. Pedroia has significantly better BA than the rest and higher SLG. Willits gets on more and has stolen 26 bases so far. In this group, I think Pedroia is the clear winner.

Three rookie AL pitchers qualify for statistical leader categories (again, not that that should be a requirement for ROY): Brian Bannister (KC), Jeremy Guthrie (Bal), and Daisuke Matsuzaka (Bos). Dice K has the most wins (14-12) but the highest ERA (4.41). Bannister is 12-8 with ERA of 3.39. In 25 starts, Guthrie was 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA. Guthrie pitched for a lousy team, but KC is pretty bad too. In this group, I'd give it to Bannister, despite having a lower strikeout rate than the other two.

For me, AL ROY is Pedroia, then Bannister.

[Patrick]

....grand slam by Blue Jay Russ Adams off of Papelbon in the 8th to extend a 2-1 game to 6-1. Ouch...

[Dan Gould]

It is time to give credit where credit is due:

When we fuck it all away, we REALLY fuck it all away.

Predicted final standings:

Red Sox 93 wins and FOUR games behind the Yankees.

Book it.

[ghost of miles]

Dan, much as I'd like to see it happen, I just don't think the inevitable laws of momentum can sustain the Yanks overtaking the Bosox. NY's won, what, 12 of their last 14 now? It is pretty breathtaking that they're 1.5 games off the lead at this point---I sure would not have predicted that a few weeks ago--but they're bound to cool off (hopefully not just in time for the playoffs). Boston would really have to keep dying to blow it now.

A-Rod is in a 3-for-29 slump... saving it up for the postseason, I hope.

[Dan Gould]

Boston would really have to keep dying to blow it now.

And why shouldn't that happen? The offensive piper is now being paid in the absence of Manny and Youklis and neither of them are even close to returning. And because they care about the playoffs more than the division, Dice-K is pitching Saturday on eight days rest, same for Schilling, he is pitching Tuesday on eight days rest. In all likelihood, both make their final starts then. Top that off with the A's and Twins coming to Fenway, and there is no reason for this team to start winning before the playoffs arrive.

Whether they can turn it around then, who the fuck knows or cares.

[Dan Gould]

After the most recent debacle last night, I went into Total Media Blackout mode but unfortunately took a look at the CNN-SI website this afternoon, where I found this stupidity from one exceptional moron, John Heyman:

But until the American League East title is decided, Terry Francona has to do everything he can to win it for the Red Sox. Pull out every stop that needs yanking on. Forget about experimenting. Cajole those who need cajoling. Kick those who need kicking. Act like that wild-card fallback position isn't even there. Win now, or you're going to regret it. Probably sooner than you think.

....

Still, the Sox need to stop playing around, suck it up and go for it. Francona needs to quit with the experimenting and stop coddling and start pushing. He has to play to win. And he has to start now.

Now I think everyone knows just how I feel about the apparent inevitability of the Yankees winning the division. But "do everything he can" to win it? How fucking stupid is that?

Does Heyman think that Okajima should be forced to pitch as often as necessary down the stretch, regardless of whether or not it will make him worse in October?

Does Heyman think that Manny should be forced back into the lineup, regardless of whether or not it makes a season-ending re-aggravation of his strained oblique more likely?

Maybe Heyman thinks that Tito should set up the rotation so that Beckett will go a week from Saturday or Sunday, on three days rest, if the division is still in play? I mean, it sure as hell doesn't matter if that will mean that Beckett can only pitch one game in the ALDS - winning the division will make it worth it! Heck, he should be ready to run Beckett and Dice-K out there on three days rest next Saturday and Sunday, if the team is within two of the all-important AL East crown. Who cares if that keeps Beckett and Dice-K out of the ALDS until Games three and four! The division championship is paramount!

Or, they might take a lesson from Detroit last year, who skipped Bonderman and Verlander in that series against KC, got swept on the last weekend, lost the division, and then watched Bonderman and Verlander lead them to the pennant, in games that really mattered.

Edited September 20, 2007 by Dan Gould

[PHILLYQ]

Consider the following possible scenario: Yankess, Red Sox, Cleveland & Anaheim all wind up with identical records. I know that the Yankees would win the division because they won the season series with Boston and Boston would get the wild card. Who gets home field advantage through the playoffs and World series- how is that decided in this scenario? Anybody know the answer to that one?

[Dan Gould]

Consider the following possible scenario: Yankess, Red Sox, Cleveland & Anaheim all wind up with identical records. I know that the Yankees would win the division because they won the season series with Boston and Boston would get the wild card. Who gets home field advantage through the playoffs and World series- how is that decided in this scenario? Anybody know the answer to that one?

I'm sure it is head to head records when two are tied, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is the sort of tie that would actually require a playoff game or two to determine. Maybe Patrick or Quincy have the answer, but I wouldn't sweat it, I don't think it is too likely to occur.

[Patrick]

I have no idea, but agree that it is extremely unlikely.

[Quincy]

This is close. I'm guessing you handle the wild card tie-breaker first.

Scenario #8

"Scenario #8: There is a three-way tie for highest winning percentage among Division winners and a tiebreaker is required to determine home field advantage in the Division Series.

The tied Club that has a better record against both of the other Division champions during the championship season will be deemed to have the higher winning percentage. The tie between the two remaining Clubs shall be broken as follows:

The first tiebreaker will be head-to-head competition between the two Clubs during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intraleague games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken.

If none of the three tied Clubs has a better record against both of the other Division champions during the championship season, then the Club deemed to have the higher winning percentage shall be:

The tied Club with the higher winning percentage in head-to-head competition among the tied Clubs during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intradivision games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in intraleague games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games during the championship season. If the Clubs remain tied, then the tied Club with the higher winning percentage in the last half plus one of intraleague games during the championship season. This process will be followed game-by-game until the tie is broken."

Whew!

Relatedly, a couple of weeks ago there were coin flips for all of the different combinations of wild card tie-breaker games and such. Seattle in the midst of their horrid losing streak on the field was involved in 12 different coin flips. They lost 11 of them. For that article click here.

[Soulstation1]

dan gould = crappin' his underwear

[Soulstation1]

GO TRIBE!!!!!!!!!!

[Dan Gould]

Well I just did some quick checking and discovered some encouraging matchups in the final 9 or 10 games of the season:

Yanks face both Doc Holladay and AJ Burnett in their four game tilt against the Blue Jays

Sox will miss Dan Haren when the A's visit Fenway, and it looks like Johan Santana's final start will come the day before the Twins arrive for their four game set.

I may feel like the wild card is a foregone conclusion, but if we can get our shit together, at least the Sox avoid the most unfavorable pitching matchups.

[Johnny E]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Wow, I'm a prophet.

Edited September 21, 2007 by Johnny E

[BERIGAN]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Wow, I'm a prophet.

Thought you were an Atheist!

[Dan Gould]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Wow, I'm a prophet.

Yeah, except prophets don't generally backtrack two days later:

Dan,

You do realize I was just ratttling your cage a little, right? I actually think the Red Sox are the strongest team in the AL.

[Johnny E]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Wow, I'm a prophet.

Yeah, except prophets don't generally backtrack two days later:

Dan,

You do realize I was just ratttling your cage a little, right? I actually think the Red Sox are the strongest team in the AL.

That's because I never thought that it was actually possible for the Sox to choke this hard. But then I watched the Mariners do it and now I'm watching the Red Sox do it. But let's be honest, no one ever expected the M's to do well this season. But the Red Sox on the other hand? Don't they have like the second highest payroll in all of baseball and some kind of wizard/king as GM? And weren't they leading the division by almost 15 games just a couple months ago?

Man, the Red Sox are losers, the Patriots are cheaters... I guess there's always the Celtics and Bruins to root for come October.

Edited September 22, 2007 by Johnny E

[Johnny E]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Wow, I'm a prophet.

Thought you were an Atheist!

I never said that...

[Tim McG]

So long, Barry.....it was a great run.

[Dan Gould]

Well, aside from the Yankees getting last licks against the Jays depleted bullpen, this was about the best day's baseball in a while:

Cubs won, Brewers lost, they've got a 2 1/2 game lead. Go Cubbies!

Sox won on a three run ninth against the Rays closer, Tigers won, SOX ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS and since the Angels lost again, they clinch a spot before anyone else, as should have been the case all along.

Indians lose, so we're back at a tie for best record in the league - as I now understand it, if a three-way tie exists at the end of the season, the Sox win on the basis of head-to-head record against both the Indians and the Angels. Everyone else beat one team and lost to the other, the Sox are the only ones with a winning record against the division champions.

[Patrick]

The Tigers lost.

Are you taking comfort/pride/whatever from clinching perhaps just one game before LAA and Cleveland (both of whom have magic numbers of 1)? Based on how well things were going a month or two ago, wouldn't you have been shocked by this??

Rough outing for Paul Byrd. Would be nice if Tribe could pick the slower schedule and pitch CC and Fausto twice each, and Byrd + pen in just one.