The Baseball Thread 2007

[BERIGAN]

Can we all just agree that the Yankees are much better than either the Red Sox or Mariners???

[Johnny E]

Dig this:

Mariners contending despite poor trends

Kevin Hench - FOXSports.com, 8/13/07

A funny thing happened on the way to the sabermetrician's conference.

Bill James sprained his VORP, Lee Sinins tore his RCAA, and Sean Forman suffered WHIP-lash.

What could cause such calamity for the vaunted members of the Society for American Baseball Research?

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 Seattle Mariners, the most confounding team in big league history.

The M's are 10th in the American League in home runs, dead last in walks (14 behind the Royals), 11th in WHIP and 10th in ERA. Yet by some baffling, stat-defying series of fortunate events, they are 14 games over .500, stalking the Angels in the West and tied with the Yankees in the wild-card race.

If, despite their obvious shortcomings, the Mariners make the playoffs, Mike Hargrove and John McLaren should be co-Managers of the Year.

For those people wondering how Grover could have bailed on this season despite Seattle's lofty standing at his departure, watching a team with no patience and little power with a rotation featuring Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver takes a toll.

Hargrove probably figured "I gotta get outta here because the wheels are coming off this jalopy any second now."

At first, it looked like the skipper had timed things perfectly. Seattle sent him off into retirement with its eighth straight win, then began to swoon under McLaren, losing three of four. A seven-game losing streak in July confirmed what decades of sabermetric research had taught us: you cannot win when your offense doesn't draw walks and your rotation doesn't produce quality starts (the M's are 11th in the AL in that category).

But now the Mariners have won 10 of 14 and look committed to becoming the all-time thumb in the eye of seamheads everywhere.

How the heck are they doing it?

Well, it's certainly not with solid starting pitching. Despite playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco, Seattle starters have a 5.12 ERA (12th in the AL), a 1.52 WHIP (13th) and a .295 batting average against (13th).

If one pitcher embodies the inexplicable nature of this strange Seattle season it's Ramirez. He has been pounded to the tune of a 7.12 ERA. His WHIP is an ungodly 1.85. In 13 starts covering 67 innings, he has walked exactly as many (29) as he has struck out. So naturally his record is 7-3.

Weaver hasn't been so lucky. He is a 3-10, a more appropriate record for his 6.20 ERA.

Since-injured stopgap Cha Seung Baek got knocked around to the tune of a 5.74 ERA, yet still managed a 3-3 record in his 11 starts.

This leaves us with what constitutes Seattle's Big Three: Felix Hernandez, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn.

Though he has shown flashes of ascending to the throne, King Felix stands at 8-6 with a 3.97 ERA. His 1.40 WHIP is good for 26th in the league.

Batista, who leads the M's with 12 wins, has improved on his .312 lifetime OBA, holding hitters to a .275 mark, but his 1.51 WHIP is actually worse than his career 1.46. Still, no Seattle starter has been better lately. In his last 11 starts, Batista has lowered his season ERA by over a run to 4.13.

And then there's Washburn. The poster child for sabermetric vexation. With a 0.96 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, you'd assume that no Seattle starter would benefit more from the heavy ocean air of spacious Safeco. And, of course, you'd be wrong. Washburn is 4-3 with a 3.63 ERA on the road and 4-6 with a 4.75 ERA at home. Go figure.

No game is more perfectly emblematic of the Seattle season than their June 27 win over the visiting Red Sox.

Rookie starter Ryan Feierabend gave up five hits, two walks and a slew of warning-track fly balls as he threw 99 pitches and held Boston scoreless for five innings. (In his next start Feierabend wouldn't be so lucky, allowing 10 runs to the Royals while getting four outs). The M's beat the Sox 2-1 in the bottom of the 11th when their seventh baserunner of the day (Ichiro) scored on a double by Jose Lopez that eluded a confused Manny Ramirez in left.

Lopez, the starting second baseman, is a good place to start in dissecting the Mariners' perplexing offense, since he typifies Seattle's swing first, ask questions later approach. He is hitting .258 with a .293 on-base percentage. He is on pace for 561 at-bats and 24 walks. He has eight home runs. All that swinging has produced a mere .362 slugging percentage.

But believe it or not, Lopez is actually more patient than his DP partner, shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt who is on pace for 558 at-bats and only 20 walks. And it gets worse. M's catcher Kenji Johjima is on pace to walk 17 times in 499 at-bats.

No element of the game has become more venerated under the jeweler's loupe of the sabermetrician than the base on balls. And no team desecrates the walk like these Mariners, whose most famous free-swinger, leadoff man Ichiro, is on pace for 54 walks in 682 at-bats.

And yet, despite their reckless impatience, the Mariners have outscored the opposition, 567-555 (a margin that, according to James' run-differential formula, should have them just a few games above .500).

How is this possible?

Two words: "close" and "late."

When the game is tight, Seattle shines. The bullpen, anchored by J.J. Putz, is ridiculous, and the hitters transform in close-and-late situations.

Late in tight games — defined by Elias as "results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck" — the Mariners are hitting a league-best .296 (the Yankees are second at .264) and their .796 OPS far outpaces No. 2 Cleveland's .753.

Sabermetricians hate the word "clutch," and many dismiss it altogether, claiming it simply doesn't exist. Well, it does in Seattle. Yeah baby!!!

But the main reason the M's are in the playoff hunt is not their clutch hitting. It's the 'pen, which is 23-7 with a 3.65 ERA.

If Seattle makes the playoffs, Putz should win MVP. He is quietly — almost silently, if you go by the sound of opponents' bats — having an Eckersley-esque season. He is 34-for-36 in saves with a 1.48 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, a .144 OBA with 60 Ks and 9 BBs in 54.2 IP.

Putz's lefty setup man, George Sherrill, has been just as dominant. He has a 1.53 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and lefties are hitting .145 off him.

Although Seattle's overall bullpen ERA is fifth in the AL behind league-leader Boston (2.92), their top five relievers — Putz, Sherrill, Sean Green, Brandon Morrow and Eric O'Flaherty — have a combined 2.46 ERA that is more accurately indicative of what the M's send to the hill in winnable games. eat it Dan!

Still, can a team make it all the way to the playoffs relying entirely on a gang of (albeit clutch-hitting) free swingers and a lights-out bullpen? Especially a team that already travels more miles than any other in baseball and had a four-game April series in Cleveland snowed out?

If they do, the sabermetricians will be snowed too.

source

Edited August 21, 2007 by Johnny E

[Johnny E]

Admit it, you guys miss fighting each other over politics!!!

Kinda

[Big Al]

17 games over .500 in the back end of August. Second best record in the AL. Not bad for a team that everyone expected would battle Texas for last place.

I knew there was something the Rangers could succeed at!

[Johnny E]

17 games over .500 in the back end of August. Second best record in the AL. Not bad for a team that everyone expected would battle Texas for last place.

I knew there was something the Rangers could succeed at!

HA!

[Dan Gould]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Try TWELVE WEEKS ago. Any team with a 220 million dollar payroll can climb back into the race with that much time to do it.

And there is no comparison to '78.

This team has easily the best pitching in baseball. That team had no pitching outside of Dennis Eckersley.

That team got clobbered by injuries. This team hasn't. (Knock wood)

That team had a manager who let personal animosities keep him from making sound decisions (taking Bill Lee out of the rotation). This team has a manager who risks a spot start by Tavarez so that he can line up his rotation the way he wants: Wakefield tonight in Tampa (77 pitches to get through seven shutout innings and earn his 15th win), Dice-K gets an extra day off (his stats are markedly improved on five days rest), and the rotation is set for the Yankee series with Beckett, Dice and Schilling going instead of Wakefield, who's magic against the Yankees has run out.

[Johnny E]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Try TWELVE WEEKS ago. Any team with a 220 million dollar payroll can climb back into the race with that much time to do it.

And there is no comparison to '78.

This team has easily the best pitching in baseball. That team had no pitching outside of Dennis Eckersley.

That team got clobbered by injuries. This team hasn't. (Knock wood)

That team had a manager who let personal animosities keep him from making sound decisions (taking Bill Lee out of the rotation). This team has a manager who risks a spot start by Tavarez so that he can line up his rotation the way he wants: Wakefield tonight in Tampa (77 pitches to get through seven shutout innings and earn his 15th win), Dice-K gets an extra day off (his stats are markedly improved on five days rest), and the rotation is set for the Yankee series with Beckett, Dice and Schilling going instead of Wakefield, who's magic against the Yankees has run out.

Aren't you bean eaters embarrased to say "Dice-K"? What kinda of cheesy ass nick name is that?

Anyway, there is a comparison. and many MANY people are making it. Oh, and I seem to remember a not-so-shabby guy named Luis Tiant on that team, no? The 78' sox had Luis Tiant, Dennis Eckersley and and Mike Torrez as their big three. They had 3.31, 2.99 and 3.96 ERA's respectively (averaging 3.42). The current sox have Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka. If we take Schilling numbers from last year (since he's been hurt all year) and the projected stats for the other two we get 3.24, 3.97 and 3.59 (averaging 3.60) - .18 higher than the 78' sox.

But more than numbers, it's in the air. The yanks are climbing back into this thing in a big way. That doesn't hurt the Mariners nearly as much as it hurts the Sox. You've seen it before, many times Dan. Admit it. The Sox are shitting their pants. You can quote statistics all day long. But at the end of the day, the Yankees are going to bump the Sox right off their game, if not completely out of the playoffs.

Edited August 21, 2007 by Johnny E

[bluesForBartok]

I wouldn't go so far as to compare the 2007 Red Sox to the '78 team. It's a different set of circumstances altogether. As long as the Skankees keep digging into those deep pockets they are always going to be in contention for years to come so it's really no surprise they are on the heels of the Sox.

Even Fitzy is in a panic

Whether or not they knock the Red Sox out of the playoffs remains to be seen and if they do I'm ready to get behind whatever team takes them down.

[Quincy]

Dig this:

Two words: "close" and "late."

Late in tight games — defined by Elias as "results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck" — the Mariners are hitting a league-best .296 (the Yankees are second at .264) and their .796 OPS far outpaces No. 2 Cleveland's .753.

Sabermetricians hate the word "clutch," and many dismiss it altogether, claiming it simply doesn't exist. Well, it does in Seattle. Yeah baby!!!

But the main reason the M's are in the playoff hunt is not their clutch hitting. It's the 'pen, which is 23-7 with a 3.65 ERA.

Man, it has been something else. The games I've been tuning into it'll be the 7th inning, or there will be 2 out and a man on in the 6th, and they get it done. Ibanez hasn't homered in forever, but does so with men on. Sexson gets a hit when it's needed, Betancourt hits a grand slam. "Timely hitting" is such a cliche, but I'll be damned as so often they're getting it.

I sure didn't expect it this year, and the numbers look ugly, the starting pitching is a bit scary, but hell, I'm enjoying this head scratching team like few others in my lifetime. Knock those Halos outta there!

[Dan Gould]

Come on Dan. In your heart of hearts, you know the Sox are gonna blow it. They had a 14 1/2 game lead, what? 8 weeks ago? Feels like 78' to me. Its going to take a minor miracle for your team to hold off the Yankees bro. 6 more game with the Yanks. You'll take two if you're lucky.

You know it's true. In your bones you know it's true.

Try TWELVE WEEKS ago. Any team with a 220 million dollar payroll can climb back into the race with that much time to do it.

And there is no comparison to '78.

This team has easily the best pitching in baseball. That team had no pitching outside of Dennis Eckersley.

That team got clobbered by injuries. This team hasn't. (Knock wood)

That team had a manager who let personal animosities keep him from making sound decisions (taking Bill Lee out of the rotation). This team has a manager who risks a spot start by Tavarez so that he can line up his rotation the way he wants: Wakefield tonight in Tampa (77 pitches to get through seven shutout innings and earn his 15th win), Dice-K gets an extra day off (his stats are markedly improved on five days rest), and the rotation is set for the Yankee series with Beckett, Dice and Schilling going instead of Wakefield, who's magic against the Yankees has run out.

Aren't you bean eaters embarrased to say "Dice-K"? What kinda of cheesy ass nick name is that?

Anyway, there is a comparison. and many MANY people are making it. Oh, and I seem to remember a not-so-shabby guy named Luis Tiant on that team, no? The 78' sox had Luis Tiant, Dennis Eckersley and and Mike Torrez as their big three. They had 3.31, 2.99 and 3.96 ERA's respectively (averaging 3.42). The current sox have Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka. If we take Schilling numbers from last year (since he's been hurt all year) and the projected stats for the other two we get 3.24, 3.97 and 3.59 (averaging 3.60) - .18 higher than the 78' sox.

But more than numbers, it's in the air. The yanks are climbing back into this thing in a big way. That doesn't hurt the Mariners nearly as much as it hurts the Sox. You've seen it before, many times Dan. Admit it. The Sox are shitting their pants. You can quote statistics all day long. But at the end of the day, the Yankees are going to bump the Sox right off their game, if not completely out of the playoffs.

Are you that much of a dumb ass that you don't know that "Dice-K" is the phonetic pronunciation of "Daisuke"????

Where are the illustrious members of the '78 bullpen? Oh that's right- there weren't any.

Where is the third baseman with bone spurs, 39 errors, and 122 strikeouts? Oh that's right, he's been replaced by a Gold Glover who leads the team in RBI.

And the idea that we are "shitting our pants" - up til ten days ago, we had the second best post All Star Break record in the league. That's "choking"? We were playing .600 ball for three weeks and never gained a game on the Yankees.

If anything, this is more like 2004 than anything else. The Yankees had a comfortable lead; the Red Sox made a famous trade and took off. I remember Joe Torre bitching that they were winning and winning but they couldn't stop the Red Sox from gaining.

And then ... the winning slowed down, and the Yankees held on. And who got the Wild Card?

That's right, the super hot team of the second half.

Just like this year: The Red Sox hold on, the Yankees get the Wild Card, and a group of overachieving losers cry into their gourmet coffee.

[Dan Gould]

Is it too much to hope that the Sox might be positioned for a nice little streak that nudges the lead into a more comforting zone?

They won tonight so I can sleep easy with the Yankees in Anaheim, and best of all, the Yanks get the Angels two best pitchers, Escobar tonight and Lackey tomorrow, while they counter with their crappiest, Moose, tonight (and Pettitte tomorrow). Plus by starting Tavarez on Sunday, Dice-K goes on five days rest tomorrow, and then again he opens the Yankee series on five days rest, and its been very clear that he pitches much better with more rest than the usual four.

I was discussing the race with my brother the Yankee fan, we agreed that we shouldn't draw conclusions while the Yankees were fattening up on weak competition, so I asked for a prediction as to where the teams would be heading into and out of the series in the Bronx.

My prediction: 9 games out before the series, 8 games afterwards.

His prediction: 4 games out before the series, 1 game afterwards.

Its five 1/2 now, maybe six after tonight. Without Gagne, its eight 1/2 right now. But I like our chances over the next six days.

Update: Moose has already given up two in the first inning.

[bluesForBartok]

Current score in Anaheim is Angels 12 - Yankees 5. If the Angels pitching can hold up we'll be up 6 games after tonight.

[MartyJazz]

Current score in Anaheim is Angels 12 - Yankees 5. If the Angels pitching can hold up we'll be up 6 games after tonight.

Final - 18-5 with 10 ribbies for Garrett Anderson alone. Brutal. Yanks playing the Angels while Boston fattens up on the Devil Rays - not an especially good recipe for closing the gap.

And what's with Mussina? Horrible lately.

[Noj]

10 RBIs, holy smokes! Garrett went apeshit. It seems like the Angels have had the Yankees' number for a while now.

[Dan Gould]

Current score in Anaheim is Angels 12 - Yankees 5. If the Angels pitching can hold up we'll be up 6 games after tonight.

Final - 18-5 with 10 ribbies for Garrett Anderson alone. Brutal. Yanks playing the Angels while Boston fattens up on the Devil Rays - not an especially good recipe for closing the gap.

And what's with Mussina? Horrible lately.

Aside from a mini-streak during the Yankees rise against the dregs, Mussina has been horrible all year long. Too bad you got him for another year to come ...

Hopefully the gap can widen a couple of more games with the Chi-sox and Red Sox meeting up for four while the Yanks have to go to Detroit for four. Detroit isn't that great at home but they've got to do better than the 1-3 they put up in the Bronx.

[Johnny E]

Dan,

You do realize I was just ratttling your cage a little, right? I actually think the Red Sox are the strongest team in the AL. I also hate the Yankees with a passion. I have a co-worker from Boston who was in apanic a couple weeks ago because she thought the Yanks were gonna do what they did to the Sox in 78'. I reassured her that it was a completely different team and completely different situation. I reasoned that the curse had been lifted so no need to worry.

That said, you gotta admit that the M's have really played well and far exceeded anyone's expectations.

[Dan Gould]

Dan,

You do realize I was just ratttling your cage a little, right? I actually think the Red Sox are the strongest team in the AL. I also hate the Yankees with a passion. I have a co-worker from Boston who was in apanic a couple weeks ago because she thought the Yanks were gonna do what they did to the Sox in 78'. I reassured her that it was a completely different team and completely different situation. I reasoned that the curse had been lifted so no need to worry.

That said, you gotta admit that the M's have really played well and far exceeded anyone's expectations.

John,

I had no clue, probably because in my heart of hearts I am a little rattled lately. (Or maybe you haven't FUCKING noticed.)

I do think the M's are playing surprisingly well, and I am kind of torn in that I'd love to see them hold off the Yankees and end their streak of playoff seasons, but at the same time that would mean we'd have to play you in the first round, and that's disconcerting because you had our number most of the season. I can't quite figure that out but a pesky, overachieving team with a strong veteran presence isn't the best playoff matchup. Maybe my best hope is for the M's to win the division and the Halos to get in as wild card. Unlike the Yanks, we seem to know how to beat them when it counts.

[Johnny E]

Dan,

You do realize I was just ratttling your cage a little, right? I actually think the Red Sox are the strongest team in the AL. I also hate the Yankees with a passion. I have a co-worker from Boston who was in apanic a couple weeks ago because she thought the Yanks were gonna do what they did to the Sox in 78'. I reassured her that it was a completely different team and completely different situation. I reasoned that the curse had been lifted so no need to worry.

That said, you gotta admit that the M's have really played well and far exceeded anyone's expectations.

John,

I had no clue, probably because in my heart of hearts I am a little rattled lately. (Or maybe you haven't FUCKING noticed.)

I do think the M's are playing surprisingly well, and I am kind of torn in that I'd love to see them hold off the Yankees and end their streak of playoff seasons, but at the same time that would mean we'd have to play you in the first round, and that's disconcerting because you had our number most of the season. I can't quite figure that out but a pesky, overachieving team with a strong veteran presence isn't the best playoff matchup. Maybe my best hope is for the M's to win the division and the Halos to get in as wild card. Unlike the Yanks, we seem to know how to beat them when it counts.

I like that scenario. Personally the Red Sox scare the hell out of me.

[BERIGAN]

Johnny + Dan =

[BERIGAN]

Hey Al, see that Salty finally broke out tonight, 2 Hr's, 7 RBI's!!! Holy crap!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Just checked the score, 26 to 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What is the all time record for runs by one team???

[Patrick]

Now 30 - 3. Modern baseball record. Break up the Rangers!!!

[Patrick]

And Ranger Wes Littleton earns a save in the 30-3 game by pitching 3 scoreless innings. I think even Joe Borowski could have converted that one...

[BERIGAN]

And Ranger Wes Littleton earns a save in the 30-3 game by pitching 3 scoreless innings. I think even Joe Borowski could have converted that one...

Wow! 27 runs up and gets a save! Come in a game up 6-2 in the ninth, and no save...

[Patrick]

I only caught bits and pieces of the game, but at the end Palmer did remind everyone that Baltimore lead 3-0 after 3 innings. So Texas had 30 unanswered runs over the course of 6 innings--averaging FIVE runs an inning, for SIX innings. Wow. 30 - 3, that's not even a close football game...

[ghost of miles]

Good Lord! And trying to remember... when did they go to the "3 innings=save" stat definition?

They shoulda called off Game 2 & shown Bad News Bears films for the rest of the night.

Edited August 23, 2007 by ghost of miles