The Baseball Thread 2007

[Dan Gould]

I gotta question about Wake. He's always struck me, perhaps based on my limited exposure, as being very iffy late in the season and post-season. The impression I have is that it is either total mastery of the opposing lineup, or total BP for him. Almost like you have to warm up another pitcher from the start just in case it is the latter. Is this correct?

Its certainly true that when he doesn't have command, its like BP. Overall, he can be expected to have a .500 to above record, 4+ ERA and plenty of innings (which suggests that its actually a strong ratio of good starts to bad). As far as late in the season or in the post-season goes, I don't know. He had a great post-season in 2003 and was going to be the ALCS MVP until Grady had his brain fart. However, looking at Baseball-Reference, his post-season numbers aren't really very good, aside from that one ALCS. Disconcerting, to say the least, with Dice-K not looking good and Schilling still an unknown quantity (certainly with his lack of velocity, if he mislocates a bunch of pitches, he'll get lit up), Wake needs to be a solid starter.

BTW, Gagne did come in and he gave up two singles. Normally it wouldn't matter but since the first hitter took second on "defensive indifference", he scored on the second single. 16-10 the final. Still in front by five, the magic number is 13. Would be great if it can go down to ten before the Yanks arrive, but maybe 11 is more realistic. Toronto may be snakebit by that collapse against Detroit where Doc Holliday had a four run lead, two outs and nobody on and they lost.

[Patrick]

yeah...tell me about that Blue Jay snake bite against Detroit...

[Dan Gould]

yeah...tell me about that Blue Jay snake bite against Detroit...

Yeah, I can imagine the shock you got when you found out they'd won that game. Another game in the bank and then poof, its gone. Trust me that it won't make a difference in the end, but on the other hand, if it had happened to me and the Yanks had made such a comeback, I'd have set a record for F-Bombs in a single post. (If you thought that last one was impressive you have no idea what I can do when I'm really inspired)

[Matthew]

Has nothing to do with nothing: Kisscam from the Cubs vs. Diamondback game. :lol:

edit: new link

Edited September 12, 2007 by Matthew

[Dan Gould]

Well, Papi picked the right time for his first walk-off of the year!!!

Lester gives up a four spot in the first, Papi hits a three run homer in the third, and while Tavarez/Delcarmen/Okajima/Papelbon keep the Rays in check, they threaten but can't cash in on their pathetic bullpen until the ninth, when Lugo walked and after Pedroia flew out, Papi homered for the win.

And I had visions of the Yankees pulling to within 3 1/2 Thursday after they finish the sweep of the Jays tomorrow.

Now if AJ Burnett would just show some sac and help us out tomorrow, if Toronto has any pride at all.

Late addition:

Now that I've seen the replay, it was possibly the weakest homer he's ever hit at the Fens. Fly ball to right, looked like it would wrap around the Pesky Pole - that's what the right fielder thought, only it ended up ten feet beyond and hit off someone in the first row. With that low fence, if the outfielder had judged it right, it could have easily been a long out.

[Dan Gould]

Hallelujah, the Yanks finally lost!

Magic number is 11, I'll be happy if we drop that down to 7 this weekend. I can only imagine how the yahoos at the MLB Yankee forum are screaming about "Sleepy Joe" after he puts Chris Britton in to start the bottom of the ninth of a 1-1 game and he promptly went hit, stolen base, game winning single. Almost as if Torre didn't care all that much about this game, when it was a must-win if you want to have a chance at the division. I mean, while it might have ended up with the same result, isn't Kyle Farnsworth higher on the depth chart than Chris Britton? He's the guy you call on after the game has stayed tied through 10 or 11. Small consolation for Yankee fans would be that the rookie, Kennedy had his best start yet, actually outpitching AJ Burnett.

Meanwhile the Angels lost to the Orioles, giving the Sox a little more room atop the league standings. While they have the best road record in the majors aside from the Mets, I still say that having home field advantage throughout the playoffs will be a big help.

[Patrick]

After 26 straight game days and a ten game/day trip, Tribe gets a day off after going 19-7 (7-3 on the just concluded road trip). Magic number is 11, and only one game behind the Angels for the right to host the Yankees instead of travelling to Fenway. [Angels' schedule looks especially soft the rest of the way, so in all likelihood Tribe will be in Boston. Will Becket/Dice and CC/Fausto duel to 1-0 games then/there??] Wedge should get serious consideration for manager of the year, and Sabathia should be a/the frontrunner for AL Cy Young. After three against KC, they host Detroit one last time (Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook). Nice to see LAA and NYY lose. K-Rod is definitely having issues now. Orioles announcers think he is seriously overthrowing.

And while playing in Chicago, Tribe surrendered only one HR to Jim Thome, so they got out of town before he hit #500 (...he's now at 499).

[Quincy]

Hallelujah, the Yanks finally lost!

I can only imagine how the yahoos at the MLB Yankee forum are screaming about "Sleepy Joe" after he puts Chris Britton in to start the bottom of the ninth of a 1-1 game and he promptly went hit, stolen base, game winning single. Almost as if Torre didn't care all that much about this game, when it was a must-win if you want to have a chance at the division. I mean, while it might have ended up with the same result, isn't Kyle Farnsworth higher on the depth chart than Chris Britton? He's the guy you call on after the game has stayed tied through 10 or 11.

Actually Britton has better numbers last year and the brief bit he's pitched this year. Much lower batting average vs. him, and WHIP & ERA is better than Farnsworth too. I'd think getting the kid some pressure time and not abusing the rest of the pen wasn't a bad idea, it just didn't work.

[BERIGAN]

I don't know if anyone here really knows(or cares ) how stupid Bobby Cox is these days, but one reason the Braves will be sitting at home again come the playoffs is addressed here by the Braves beat writer who usually lays off Bobby's idiocy....(This was from a 9-5 column....

It probably won’t surprise any of you that Willie Harris is still in the lineup and still batting leadoff today. The ship’s going down, but Bobby Cox doesn’t show any indication of changing course at this point, despite Harris’ skid.

And man, it is a skid.

Harris is 3-for-47 (.064) in his past 17 games before today, with one RBI, one stolen base and a .151 on-base percentage. (AS I WRITE THIS, he just snapped an 0-for-25 streak with a single in the bottom of the first inning).

Statistically it’s Harris’ career-best season in most regards. But it’s a tale of two seasons for the 29-year-old outfielder, and the second of them has been, frankly, pretty awful.

Harris hit .383 with a spectacular .940 OPS (.440 OBP) in his first 45 games for the Braves through June 25. But in 58 games since then he’s hit .215 (38-for-177) with a .648 OPS (.309 OBP). Folks, he’s been mediocre to bad longer than he was good this season.

And despite that .309 OBP over 58 games, he remains in the leadoff spot on days he’s in left field, which is more days than not since he plays against right-handers and Matt Diaz against left-handers.

Look at those stats again — .215 average, .309 OBP, .339 slugging - since June 26, and compare them to a few other relevant players.

In that same period Diaz has hit .355 with a .397 OBP and .610 slugging percentage (not to mention eight homers, seven more than Harris has hit all season).

And how ‘bout the two other, better leadoff options? Glad you asked.

In that same span, since June 26, Kelly Johnson has hit .314 with a .404 OBP and .527 slugging percentage (not to mention 22 extra base hits and seven homers).

In that same span since June 26, Yunel Escobar (who is dropped from leadoff to eighth on days when Harris plays) has hit .349 with a .397 OBP and .457 slugging percentage.

There is no reason, no explanation given or plausible, for Harris to still be hitting leadoff.

And with the way he’s hit in recent weeks, plenty of folks wonder why he’s still playing at all ahead of Diaz, who was given what was apparently just a one-day trial as the regular left fielder when he played against a righty last week and went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, after which it was back to the platoon.

By the way, it now seems clear the Braves were a better team with Johnson batting leadoff, doesn’t it? They were at least better at the leadoff position.

They went from leading the league in several leadoff categories when he was the guy, to ranking in the middle of the league in most leadoff categories now, including a .276 overall average that ranked eighth among NL teams from the leadoff position.

For the season, Harris has hit .228 with a .316 OBP and .357 slugging percentage in 171 at-bats from the leadoff spot. Escobar has hit .351 with a .385 OBP and .465 slugging percentage in 114 at-bats from the position in the lineup, and Johnson hit .284 with a .387 OBP and .470 slugging percentage in 264 at-bats from the leadoff spot before today.

Edited September 15, 2007 by BERIGAN

[Matthew]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

[Big Al]

Whoa...... uh oh.......

The NY media has to be juicing their undies right now over this.

[BERIGAN]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

[Matthew]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

Well, now we know how much confidence Francona has in Gagne -- none. I mean isn't the whole reason they brought Gagne to Boston was to have him pitch the 8th, then bring in Paps to shut the Yanks in down in the ninth? I thought Francona managed in panic mode last night, now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sweep.

Edited September 15, 2007 by Matthew

[Patrick]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

Well, now we know how much confidence Francona has in Gagne -- none. I mean isn't the whole reason they brought Gagne to Boston was to have him pitch the 8th, then bring in Paps to shut the Yanks in down in the ninth? I thought Francona managed in panic mode last night, now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sweep.

But in retrospect, would you have put Gagme out there last night? The guy has not done much yet to instill any confidence in his ability. If EG had pitched the eighth and given up a run or two, we'd be all over Francona for putting in that chump. ...Or at least I would. Maybe Gagne will get it together before the end of the regular season, but I wouldn't count on it. And I'd run him out there a few times against TB, Tor, Bal...

Meanwhile, for the first time in 10 starts CC Sabathia has a bad inning and gives up more than 2 runs in a start (while striking out a career high 13 against KC). Outpitched by Brian Bannister who deserved more than a no decision. Fortunately, ex-Indian David Riske was there to serve up a game-tying HR to Victor Martinez in the 8th and a game-winner to Casey Blake leading off the ninth. Coupled with a White Sox victory over the Angels, the Tribe and LAA are now tied for the second best record in the AL (2.5 games behind Bos).

Edited September 15, 2007 by Patrick

[Matthew]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

Well, now we know how much confidence Francona has in Gagne -- none. I mean isn't the whole reason they brought Gagne to Boston was to have him pitch the 8th, then bring in Paps to shut the Yanks in down in the ninth? I thought Francona managed in panic mode last night, now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sweep.

But in retrospect, would you have put Gagme out there last night? The guy has not done much yet to instill any confidence in his ability. If EG had pitched the eighth and given up a run or two, we'd be all over Francona for putting in that chump. ...Or at least I would. Maybe Gagne will get it together before the end of the regular season, but I wouldn't count on it. And I'd run him out there a few times against TB, Tor, Bal...

Meanwhile, for the first time in 10 starts CC Sabathia has a bad inning and gives up more than 2 runs in a start (while striking out a career high 13 against KC). Outpitched by Brian Bannister who deserved more than a no decision. Fortunately, ex-Indian David Riske was there to serve up a game-tying HR to Victor Martinez in the 8th and a game-winner to Casey Blake leading off the ninth. Coupled with a White Sox victory over the Angels, the Tribe and LAA are now tied for the second best record in the AL (2.5 games behind Bos).

I hear what you're saying about Gagne, but why I thought it would've been a good idea to bring him in was that Boston had a five run lead, and I think that Gagne could've handled the inning with that kind of a lead. I know, the Yankees had two lefties coming up to start the 8th, but still, bring in Gagne and if he was able to handle it, that would've given him a big boost in his confidence. Besides, he did come in the 9th and didn't do that bad of a job. I just have a bad feeling about Boston after that game, but on the plus side for Boston, Manny is still out. One last thought: How can a nine inning game take 4:43 to play?

[Patrick]

Agreed that giving Gagne a batter or two with a 5 run lead may have been a reasonable approach. As far as length of game, does Dice K work really slowly, esp. with guys on base? Seemed like it was taking forever, even early in the game when NYY was not scoring.

[BERIGAN]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

Well, now we know how much confidence Francona has in Gagne -- none. I mean isn't the whole reason they brought Gagne to Boston was to have him pitch the 8th, then bring in Paps to shut the Yanks in down in the ninth? I thought Francona managed in panic mode last night, now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sweep.

But in retrospect, would you have put Gagme out there last night? The guy has not done much yet to instill any confidence in his ability. If EG had pitched the eighth and given up a run or two, we'd be all over Francona for putting in that chump. ...Or at least I would. Maybe Gagne will get it together before the end of the regular season, but I wouldn't count on it. And I'd run him out there a few times against TB, Tor, Bal...

Meanwhile, for the first time in 10 starts CC Sabathia has a bad inning and gives up more than 2 runs in a start (while striking out a career high 13 against KC). Outpitched by Brian Bannister who deserved more than a no decision. Fortunately, ex-Indian David Riske was there to serve up a game-tying HR to Victor Martinez in the 8th and a game-winner to Casey Blake leading off the ninth. Coupled with a White Sox victory over the Angels, the Tribe and LAA are now tied for the second best record in the AL (2.5 games behind Bos).

I hear what you're saying about Gagne, but why I thought it would've been a good idea to bring him in was that Boston had a five run lead, and I think that Gagne could've handled the inning with that kind of a lead. I know, the Yankees had two lefties coming up to start the 8th, but still, bring in Gagne and if he was able to handle it, that would've given him a big boost in his confidence. Besides, he did come in the 9th and didn't do that bad of a job. I just have a bad feeling about Boston after that game, but on the plus side for Boston, Manny is still out. One last thought: How can a nine inning game take 4:43 to play?

If Boston doesn't win the division, or go deep in the playoffs, the Red Sox nation will be partly to blame, IMHO. How??? Well, you can't ever make a mistake as a manager anymore. IF he had brought Gagne in, and the Yankees had hit two home runs, well don't ever pitch him in Fenway again.(They still might not use him in Fenway again!)There'd have been death threats against him. So, Francona uses his 2 best relievers, and it's still Francona's fault they didn't succeed. Okajima needs rest. Papelbon didn't have enough time to warm up, (Cuz Okajima didn't get one single out)everything was Francona's fault!!!

When your best guys get batted around, you tip your cap, and try to get them the next day. Instead, Francona is going to be paralyzed the next two games knowing whatever he does will be wrong if the team loses. And I didn't even get into the pressure on guys like Lugo or Renteria to succeed.

Yeah, if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, sac up and all that.... well there is a point that you can reach that instead of getting a chance to excel turns into better not fail, and good things rarely happen in those situations.

The Sox clearly have the best pitching in baseball, the Yankees the best offense. But, if the Yankees win this year I think it will because there is less pressure on them, of all things.

[Matthew]

I hope Dan wasn't watching the Yankee 8th inning on his birthday......

No, he wasn't watching it....after he destroyed his TV....

Well, now we know how much confidence Francona has in Gagne -- none. I mean isn't the whole reason they brought Gagne to Boston was to have him pitch the 8th, then bring in Paps to shut the Yanks in down in the ninth? I thought Francona managed in panic mode last night, now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees sweep.

But in retrospect, would you have put Gagme out there last night? The guy has not done much yet to instill any confidence in his ability. If EG had pitched the eighth and given up a run or two, we'd be all over Francona for putting in that chump. ...Or at least I would. Maybe Gagne will get it together before the end of the regular season, but I wouldn't count on it. And I'd run him out there a few times against TB, Tor, Bal...

Meanwhile, for the first time in 10 starts CC Sabathia has a bad inning and gives up more than 2 runs in a start (while striking out a career high 13 against KC). Outpitched by Brian Bannister who deserved more than a no decision. Fortunately, ex-Indian David Riske was there to serve up a game-tying HR to Victor Martinez in the 8th and a game-winner to Casey Blake leading off the ninth. Coupled with a White Sox victory over the Angels, the Tribe and LAA are now tied for the second best record in the AL (2.5 games behind Bos).

I hear what you're saying about Gagne, but why I thought it would've been a good idea to bring him in was that Boston had a five run lead, and I think that Gagne could've handled the inning with that kind of a lead. I know, the Yankees had two lefties coming up to start the 8th, but still, bring in Gagne and if he was able to handle it, that would've given him a big boost in his confidence. Besides, he did come in the 9th and didn't do that bad of a job. I just have a bad feeling about Boston after that game, but on the plus side for Boston, Manny is still out. One last thought: How can a nine inning game take 4:43 to play?

If Boston doesn't win the division, or go deep in the playoffs, the Red Sox nation will be partly to blame, IMHO. How??? Well, you can't ever make a mistake as a manager anymore. IF he had brought Gagne in, and the Yankees had hit two home runs, well don't ever pitch him in Fenway again.(They still might not use him in Fenway again!)There'd have been death threats against him. So, Francona uses his 2 best relievers, and it's still Francona's fault they didn't succeed. Okajima needs rest. Papelbon didn't have enough time to warm up, (Cuz Okajima didn't get one single out)everything was Francona's fault!!!

When your best guys get batted around, you tip your cap, and try to get them the next day. Instead, Francona is going to be paralyzed the next two games knowing whatever he does will be wrong if the team loses. And I didn't even get into the pressure on guys like Lugo or Renteria to succeed.

Yeah, if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen, sac up and all that.... well there is a point that you can reach that instead of getting a chance to excel turns into better not fail, and good things rarely happen in those situations.

The Sox clearly have the best pitching in baseball, the Yankees the best offense. But, if the Yankees win this year I think it will because there is less pressure on them, of all things.

Of course Francona is going to picked about on how he handled this; in the AL. what else do you judge a manager on? it's all about how they handle their pitching staff. It just seems to me that it was a sign of panic to bring Papelbon to pitch two innings -- but hey, that's baseball, like you said, today's another day. Still, the way Fancona handled the 8th wasn't one of his brighter moments.

Edited September 15, 2007 by Matthew

[Patrick]

I had no problem with how Francona used his bullpen, and I don't think he's suffering from paralysis. The best pitchers pitched, and they didn't succeed (an infrequent occurence among that collection of arms). It was exciting, it was a meltdown. It happens. And it's not obvious that Papelbon would have also pitched the ninth. Red Sox will still win the division comfortably, and the Yankees probably will win the wildcard comfortably. Then we'll see how those goliaths do against those other division winners...

[Tim McG]

Go Pads!

Go D'backs!

Go Phillies!

Go Rockies!

Go away dodgers!

[Dan Gould]

Well, now that some order has been restored in my universe, I think I am ready to comment rationally about the Yankee series to date. I am quite certain I was incapable of rational thought until today's game was over.

Number one, I will say that the loss on Friday was the biggest gut-punch killer of my 32 years of being a fan. Worse than Grady Little, worse than Bucky Dent, worse than 19-8. Why? Because the end came so suddenly. With Grady's brain fart, the damage was done and the loss was inevitable, no matter how long the game went. This was nearly as important a game, and the lead disappeared and the loss was tallied in the space of, from the time Papelbon came in, about five pitches. I was prepared for the game to get tighter, I was not prepared for him to go single, double, single, to give up the winning runs in the blink of an eye. It will forever make me sick just thinking about it.

Number two, I do not have a problem with Tito's management of the bullpen. As Patrick says, you go with your best pitchers. While Okajima has had more mixed results of late, and just as with Dice-K, fatigue has to be an ongoing concern, it was a total fluke that he went homer, homer, walk, double. This was a meltdown that in all likelihood will never happen again while Okajima and Paps are teammates. Ever. But as far as Gagne goes, you had the lefties starting the inning - that is Oki's responsibility. Once the inning started its downward slide, under the circumstances, you have to go with your best, Papelbon. That is a core belief of Theo, not to mention Bill James. If Papelbon gets out of the inning and the lead is intact, maybe he starts the ninth, maybe Gagne does. But Papelbon has to be on the mound for the most important pitches. It just so happened that he executed about as well as Oki did.

Number three, let's talk about some positives:

First, the top two starters far outperformed the Yankees top two. While Dice gave up some walks and threw too many pitches, it was still an impressive return to something resembling form. Beckett today was simply outstanding, and having the likelihood of home field advantage throughout the playoffs is encouraging when you consider that Wang does not have a very good ERA at Fenway in his career.

Second, the offense continues to produce in the absence of Manny, as well as the mini-slump that Lowell is in and the major slump that Youk has been in since the ASB. Papi is hitting, Pedroia has to be the favorite for RoY, and Ellsbury sure looks like a star in the making.

Last, while I have not shown a great ability in my prognostications, I remain optimistic about our chances in the rubber game. Schilling pitched quite well in the loss at New York and I will be very surprised if Clemens is effective, and if he is, if he is effective for very long.

Magic number is nine, should be seven, and ought to have been 5 when the weekend is over. But I'll be happy if it is seven when all is said and done. Then I think we'll have a chance to clinch on the road next weekend or certainly at the beginning of our final homestand.

[Chalupa]

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Phillies diehards know how the story ends

By Howard Bryant

ESPN.com

PHILADELPHIA -- Charlie Manuel is salty. His right fielder grabs his calf running down the first-base line, the same calf that landed him on the disabled list. When the player, Shane Victorino, is surprised he's not in the lineup the next day, he gives his manager a little nudge, as they say, right under the bus.

"I don't know why I'm not playing," he says. "I'm fine."

Another player, the mercury-quick reserve outfielder Michael Bourn has been out for weeks, yet upon his return Manuel did not use him in a key situation, and thus the walls once more are closing in on the Philadelphia Phillies.

"I saw where he said when he turns the bases that his ankle hurts him," Manuel said of Bourn. "If you were the manager, what would you think?"

Questions are no longer innocent in this town, if ever they were -- and Manuel's skeptical eyes narrow to a mean little slit when he catches even a whiff of insinuation that the Phillies are once again too far from shore to swim home.

In between complete sentences, Manuel waves the white flag of language, muttering despairing fragments such as "write whatever you want," and "I don't care" in between complete sentences. Jim Salisbury, the veteran Phillies writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer, tosses a little levity at the manager.

"Charlie, you seem unusually feisty today."

"That's right. I'm feisty," Manuel said. "I'm trying to win a ballgame."

There's a difference between being nervous and being scared. Nervous can be butterflies. It can be adrenaline. Scared is in a different area. It means you're scared to get it done.

--Phillies manager Charlie Manuel

Don't blame Charlie. You'd be feisty too if it was as hot in your kitchen as it is in his these days, two games out of a playoff spot with 15 games left. Manuel -- a good southern baseball man who seems to be suffering from the same East Coast condescension that doomed Grady Little in Boston -- is managing without a contract for next season. The cosmetics in these tough towns are as important as words and deeds, and in times of trouble, the common reflex is easy to dismiss Manuel as unsophisticated, as if a rough Philly accent would raise his team's earned-run average.

It is unclear if he will return to Philadelphia in 2008, and his ballclub, the Phillies, are squeezed tight into a pennant race for the sixth time in seven years. The previous five Septembers have not been kind, and on this night, your team, which leads the league in hitting, runs, hits, total bases, doubles, RBI, walks, slugging and on-base percentage, had just been pasted 12-0 by the Colorado Rockies, shutout by a kid (Denny Bautista) who entered the game with a 19.06 ERA and a winless pitcher (Mark Redman) with an 11.86 ERA.

They are unquestionably the biggest tease in Philadelphia, if not all of Major League Baseball. Take a global perspective and you'll weep: The last championship in this city was 1983, when the Philadelphia 76ers won the last of their two NBA titles. The Eagles have been to two Super Bowls, but haven't won a league championship since 1960. The Phillies have been playing baseball for money since 1883, when they were the Philadelphia Quakers. In 124 years, they have one championship, 1980. The Cubs, Red Sox and White Sox have nothing on this town.

The last few years have been especially tantalizing, each ending in special agony. In 2001, the Phillies were tied with Atlanta for the division lead on Sept. 24, and then lost six of nine. They finished two games out. In 2003, they were two games behind the Braves on Sept. 19, only to lose six in a row, and seven of eight. In 2004, they muddled along at 65-68 on Sept. 1, then roared to a too-little, too-late 21-8 finish. In 2005, they tasted the wild-card lead on the final weekend and won more games (88) than they had since winning the pennant in 1993, and yet Houston took it all away. Last year, they won more games than St. Louis, the team that won the World Series.

None of this, it should be noted, is easy to do. Since the wild card was instituted in 1995, no team has won at least 85 games five years in a row and failed to make the playoffs. The Phillies, in their own special way, are close to making history.

Historically, everybody eventually breaks through. Everybody, that is, but the Phillies. The Giants of the 1960s were tortured by great teams with coal in their stockings. From 1965 to 1969, the Willie Mays Giants finished second five straight years, but three years earlier, they went to the World Series. The Hank Aaron Braves were consistently thwarted at the end by the Dodgers but went to consecutive World Series, winning it all in 1957. Even the Phillies of the 1970s hit the wall with Reds and Dodgers but made the playoffs and finally won the whole thing.

But here's the funny thing: The Phillies haven't reached the mountain, but nor have they -- as most teams do -- regressed and fallen apart after coming close and not making it. The White Sox -- the World Series winners in 2005, and in the hunt every year since 2000 -- are now in last place, threatening to lose 90 games.

Jimy Williams, the Phillies' bench coach, offers up his old Toronto Blue Jays as a parallel to these Phillies. "Yep, there is a similarity. We had some good, good teams there," he said. "We had [Jesse] Barfield, and [Lloyd] Moseby and [Dave] Stieb. We had to climb that hill, too."

But those teams did, like all the rest, make the playoffs in 1985, and after the big climb, win consecutive World Series titles in 1992, beating the Phillies the following year when Joe Carter … oh, the diehards know the rest.

For their suffering, the diehards walk around as if they've eaten paste for breakfast.

And lunch.

And dinner.

The counterman at Pine Street Pizza on 12th and Pine Streets in Center City is watching a replay of the second of Matt Holliday's two home runs last Tuesday while sloshing a basket of French fries in a fryolator. "They're the kiss of death," he said of the Phillies. "They get close. They make it interesting. I've been a Phillies fan my whole life. And this is it. Every year. They get close, and then, the kiss of death. All Philadelphia teams, really, are just like this."

And then there is Carol Wagner, the 52-year old Haverford College horticulturalist who could only be described as a True Believer, since her grandfather, Harry Pritchard, loved the Phillies when they played at Baker Bowl during the turn of the century. Why Old Harry would pass along the Phillies' pedigree to his unsuspecting granddaughter could only be described as love. From 1918 to 1948, the Phillies finished higher than fifth -- in an eight-team league -- but once, when they went 78-76, 12 games behind, yes, the Cubs.

"It's a Philly thing, like we know they'll narrowly lose it," she said. "And then we say, 'Oh well, we're in Philly.' But we're very dedicated, very loyal, no matter what they do."

Carol is old school, both in her enthusiasm for baseball and her lineage. No cable, no mlbtv.com, no DirecTV Extra Innings package. If the games aren't on free television, she listens to the Phils on the radio.

She has a Richie Allen button, a Phillie Phanatic doll given to her from her grandmother 30 years ago that still sits on her bed. She was there for Steve Carlton's 3,000th strikeout and still has the photo she took of him warming up. She owns T-shirts of Chase Utley and Cole Hamels. She even wears the Philadelphia equivalent of the Scarlet Letter: a Billy Wagner jersey.

"People say to me, 'What are you doing wearing a Wagner jersey,' " she says of one of the least popular recent Phillies. "I tell them, 'That's not a Billy Wagner jersey. That's a Carol Wagner jersey."

Ryan Howard

After sweeping the Mets on Aug. 27-30, the Phillies were just two games out of first place. They would lose five of the next seven games.

Citizen's Bank Park, the Phillies' lavish ballpark, is unkind to pitchers -- home run parks are unkind to any team that wants to win a championship -- and quite possibly a central reason why many baseball people believe the Phillies will not win a World Series. Before the shutout, the Phillies were 14th in ERA, runs allowed and earned runs allowed, 15th in bullpen era and last in home runs allowed.

The scouts who watch the game more than the standings say confidently that Manuel is doing more than his share. "There's no way this team, with that pitching, should even think about making the playoffs."

After the 12-0 pasting -- which was followed by a 12-4 Phillies win that underscored the all-or-nothing personality of this team -- Manuel was just as salty after the game as before, when he said he knew there were guys on his team that were scared of these high September moments. Phillies fans know the moments well: the crushing home sweep at the hands of eventual pennant-winner Houston in 2005, the series where David Bell's first-inning error led to four runs and doomed them in the opener, or when Wagner couldn't get outs or keep Astros baserunners from stealing at will in a 2-1, ninth-inning loss in the second game, leading up to the heartbreaking finale. In the third game, leading 6-5 with two out and nobody on in the ninth, Bell committed another error, and Wagner gave up a single and a home run to lose 8-6.

And then there was last year, when the Phillies won eight of nine to hold a half-game wild-card lead with a week to go only to lose three of four to lowly Washington.

"There's a difference between being nervous and being scared. Nervous can be butterflies. It can be adrenaline," Manuel said. "Scared is in a different area. It means you're scared to get it done. … When Houston got here, or when we didn't execute in Washington. We couldn't pick up the ball. We couldn't get the ball to first. That all comes from a scared thing. It's hard to produce. It's hard to execute. It's hard to do the things we need to get done."

Even Manuel veered from the traditional optimism-or-die position most managers must take. After Wednesday's 12-0 pasting, Charlie sounded as unsure as the guy at Pine Street Pizza.

"I think you've got to step up. There's no sense in even sugarcoating. It's kind of like a show-me time," he said. "It's kind of like, 'Let's go, if we have it, let's see it.' That's kind of how I look at it. We've got 17 games left, that's what it it's all come down to. I think that everything has to fall right. And fall right means that we've got to pitch good enough to get there.

"And can we do it? I don't know if we can do it. Like I said, it's time for us to see."

And yet … and yet … the Phillies are still in it, robustly. They beat the Mets for the fourth straight time Friday night and are still three games out of the wild-card lead.

"It's there," said closer Tom Gordon, who by dint of having played in Boston, New York and now Philadelphia, happens to be a graduate of the holy trinity of Big Bad Baseball cities. "The fans, well, they are different. They let us have it and you can hear it. But we have a chance. All you can ask for is a chance."

[Matthew]

Even though I do, and I mean I do get sick of hearing about the Red Sox / Yankees all the time, I have to admit: it's a lot more fun breaking down a Red Sox vs. Yankee game then a Mariner vs. Devil Ray game.

[Tim McG]

Well, now that some order has been restored in my universe, I think I am ready to comment rationally about the Yankee series to date. I am quite certain I was incapable of rational thought until today's game was over.

The first step toward recovery, Dan-O....my congratulations!

Dan Gould: Non-belligerent.

We must have a week's worth of Saturdays ahead....what a great day!

Edited September 16, 2007 by GoodSpeak

[Tim McG]

Even though I do, and I mean I do get sick of hearing about the Red Sox / Yankees all the time, I have to admit: it's a lot more fun breaking down a Red Sox vs. Yankee game then a Mariner vs. Devil Ray game.

Get used to it, Matthew.

This is an East Coast dominated BBS.