2006-2007 Hot Stove Thread

[Chalupa]

Wow. Gotta agree w/ Dan here. McCarthy was the guy that made Freddy Garcia expendable.

[Dan Gould]

Wow. Gotta agree w/ Dan here. McCarthy was the guy that made Freddy Garcia expendable.

I have since found some additional info that seems to suggest that what the Rangers gave up really was worth McCarthy (that former number one pick projects as a front-line starter, for one) and also that McCarthy has had big problems with gopher balls, which I wasn't aware of. Still, for now, I say this was a steal for the Rangers.

[Soulstation1]

the big unit might be returning to arizona

older than before.......

[Dan Gould]

Zito chooses San Francisco for 18 mil a year for seven years, with an option year

I have to wonder whether the Yankees move RJ now that the reported object of interest is off the market.

I think this hurts the Mets more than anyone, as there are few free agent pitchers on the horizon after Zambrano, and he's likely to stay with the Cubs. Now the Mets miss a significant chance to get younger, and have to rely on their aged and/or injured starters for another year.

Moving to the NL is a very smart move for Zito. They don't know him, and the thinner lineups will inflate his numbers dramatically. What's strange is going somewhere that has serious roster issues with Bonds still dominating the payroll and the team not getting signficantly younger (Zito aside) as was their stated goal. If Zito hopes to win a championship, the Giant's management better get on the stick and get younger and better soon. Otherwise, the Mets would be a better choice and the Yankees number 2. But obviously Zito's Spawn of Satan agent insisted that money trumps everything else, and no one else was going near 18 million a year, and for seven years, possibly eight (not sure if the option is a vesting one or a plain old team option)! I am sure that San Fran will live to regret this move. Yes, Zito has been extremely durable, but anyone should know that its not a matter of if but when pitchers break down. And Matt Clement never missed a start in seven years and what happened to him? Not one, not two, but three major surgical repairs in a single "exploratory" surgery after last season. Zito may be healthy now but counting on him staying that way for seven or eight years is a sucker bet.

Back to the Yanks:

If they trade the Unit now, where does that leave them?

Wang, Moose, Pettite, Pavano, Igawa with maybe Scott Proctor plus several good prospects to back them up?

That puts two highly questionable starters in the rotation, and Pettite carries his own question marks coming off of injuries and being several years older than the last time he pitched in the AL. And I don't think its a good plan to force the youngsters in ahead of schedule. They need to be eased in slowly.

I think that the Yanks have to rethink RJ or else be prepared to knock everyone else's offer out of the park on the Rocket.

[Noj]

Not happy to see the Giants get Zito.

[Chalupa]

So happy Zito didn't wind up w/ the Mets.

((((Bobby Murcer))))

[BFrank]

Not happy to see the Giants get Zito.

Not to worry, Noj. Dodgers got Schmidt. A better team overall, too.

I like Zito crossing the bay, though.

[BERIGAN]

Zito chooses San Francisco for 18 mil a year for seven years, with an option year

I have to wonder whether the Yankees move RJ now that the reported object of interest is off the market.

I think this hurts the Mets more than anyone, as there are few free agent pitchers on the horizon after Zambrano, and he's likely to stay with the Cubs. Now the Mets miss a significant chance to get younger, and have to rely on their aged and/or injured starters for another year.

Moving to the NL is a very smart move for Zito. They don't know him, and the thinner lineups will inflate his numbers dramatically. What's strange is going somewhere that has serious roster issues with Bonds still dominating the payroll and the team not getting signficantly younger (Zito aside) as was their stated goal. If Zito hopes to win a championship, the Giant's management better get on the stick and get younger and better soon. Otherwise, the Mets would be a better choice and the Yankees number 2. But obviously Zito's Spawn of Satan agent insisted that money trumps everything else, and no one else was going near 18 million a year, and for seven years, possibly eight (not sure if the option is a vesting one or a plain old team option)! I am sure that San Fran will live to regret this move. Yes, Zito has been extremely durable, but anyone should know that its not a matter of if but when pitchers break down. And Matt Clement never missed a start in seven years and what happened to him? Not one, not two, but three major surgical repairs in a single "exploratory" surgery after last season. Zito may be healthy now but counting on him staying that way for seven or eight years is a sucker bet.

.....

Dan, Braves fans are gloating right now. There were a few pesky Mets fans that loved to post on the braves blogs saying how they had all this money to spend on Schmidt, and/or Zito. and got neither pitcher. That being said, I think Omar was quite smart not going for that many years, that would have been nuts for sure!

What do you bet Zito wanted to stay in the Bay area all along, and just kept his mouth shut???

And what you said about the NL being the thinner league...well, you are right of course, yet look at what Mulder and Hudson have done so far after leaving the A's. Granted, Mulder was hurt last year, but supposedly Hudson is healthy, and his ERA in 2006 was 4.89!!! Honestly, I expect the Phils or Marlins to beat out the Braves and Mets, unless the Mets can turn a trade or two for starters.

[Quincy]

What do you bet Zito wanted to stay in the Bay area all along, and just kept his mouth shut???

I think you nailed it. To be that loaded and not quite 28 and live in SF. He might even be able to afford a place of his own now.

[BERIGAN]

What do you bet Zito wanted to stay in the Bay area all along, and just kept his mouth shut???

I think you nailed it. To be that loaded and not quite 28 and live in SF. He might even be able to afford a place of his own now.

At least a 1200 square footer if nothing else.

[BFrank]

What do you bet Zito wanted to stay in the Bay area all along, and just kept his mouth shut???

I think you nailed it. To be that loaded and not quite 28 and live in SF. He might even be able to afford a place of his own now.

At least a 1200 square footer if nothing else.

I'll rent him my garage.

[PHILLYQ]

Zito also went, as many Boras clients do, for the most money. He's going to a team that is weak and old, and I doubt he can turn them around himself. He would have been better off going to the Mets, better team, pitcher's park, pitching coach he liked. But $$$ rules.

The Yankees getting rid of Randy Johnson is a great move IMHO, especially if they get some decent propects in return. He hasn't pitched so great for the Yanks, and it certainly seems that he hates NYC.

[Quincy]

I think a lot of these guys, pitchers especially are picking up on the idea that you can take the big contract from a lesser team and see how it goes. If the team doesn't contend, either demand a trade to a contender or maybe the team that signed will ask to trade you to one for prospects. So go ahead, go for the top dollar or the city that you'd prefer to live in for 1/2 the season even if the franchise is screwed up (like the Giants.) Kansas City still attracts players who like the lower key life and the school system (the latter was often quoted as a reason why players signed there long past the winning years of the franchise.)

Take Suppan. If the guy somehow keeps up the pace he had in the 2nd half last year, with the young talent on the team there's an outside chance the Brewers could contend for wild card. And if you win wild card, no tellin' how far you can go. Maybe all the way. Lots of ifs & buts there, both regarding his talent & the team's, but that's what you tell yourself while preparing to cash the checks. Do a year, maybe even 2, and assuming you have a working arm one of the big boys will come calling when their staff is in trouble if things don't pan out for your team.

As far as Zito, he has always come off as the classic West Coast dude (and lefty flake.) It's hard to picture him playing outside of California, and especially hard to see him pitching in Queens or Arlington.

Edited December 29, 2006 by Quincy

[Dan Gould]

So Yankee fans - what do you think of being rid of the Big Unit?

To me, a rotation of

Wang

Mussina

Pettitte

Pavano

Igawa

with a lot of prospects in reserve is not a recipe for overwhelming excitement about the season. While RJ had plenty of problems and inconsistency, its interesting to note that he led the team in innings pitched over his two seasons, and that as bad as his 5.00 ERA was last year, his peripherals were still quite good. I have to wonder whether the back surgery will give him a new lease on the life of his fastball (he won four CYs after he had this surgery the last time) and also where are the Yanks going to cover his 200 innings? Pavano and Igawa are enormous mysteries and to have both of them penciled in seems crazy.

Two things could change all that:

Signing Clemens

Packaging some large portion of these prospects into a trade for someone like Dontrelle Willis

The bottom line is that its pretty much inevitable that those prospects are going to be pressed into service, one way or another. Pettitte, Pavano and Mussina are injury risks, Igawa is a candidate for a neck injury from watching his soft-toss get hammered into the bleachers; even Wang carries a risk (there was an SI columnist who wrote a piece about young pitchers and the season after they make a big leap in innings pitched - they all seem to have major regressions or be at risk of injury, and Wang definitely qualifies.

I will say this about RJ: every time he took the mound, there was a chance that he would dominate. The fact that he won't be out there for the Yanks makes me glad. I'll be doubly glad if they really do look for Pavano or Igawa to replace him.

[Dave James]

I have mixed feelings about the departure of The Unit. Maddening inconsistency will be his legacy in New York. I do think the Yanks have made great progress in restocking their lower echelons considering this trade and the Sheffield move with Detroit. Jayson Stark practically raved about this last night on ESPN. Notwithstanding, at this point in time, every Yankee fan must to be concerned about the rotation. Personally, I'm reserving judgement until the Clemens card is played. I just have a hunch that we're going to see The Rocket back in pinstripes. That will change the whole dynamic.

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

Personally, I'm reserving judgement until the Clemens card is played. I just have a hunch that we're going to see The Rocket back in pinstripes. That will change the whole dynamic.

It was reported that Clemens hates Randy and that part of this was making Clemens more likely to sign. What is certain is a major bidding war between the rivals, and Clemens will have to make a decision about closing the circle vs being the mercenary he's always been.

Either way, I think I'll enjoy watching the fans of the losing team really give it to him when he returns to the old stadium.

[chris olivarez]

What I would like to see is no one sign the Rocket and if he wants a part time job then he can head his ass to a temp agency. Time for baseball to put an end to this lunacy.

[Dan Gould]

Well, pending a physical, the RJ trade is complete, and the more I think about it, the more I believe that the Red Sox simply cannot allow themselves to be outbid for Clemens. If Dice-K was a "blocking" action against the Yanks, this would be the ultimate "block" - and if it means that Papelbon goes back to the end of the bullpen, all the better.

The simple fact is that the Cashman can talk all he wants but he cannot go into the season with Igawa and Pavano as the four and five starters, with Proctor and a bunch of inexperienced (though talented) youngsters backing them up. He has to go get Clemens, or else package every one of those highly touted arms to get D-Train, or heaven help us, Johan Santana (Twins fans, I'm sure you realize that the salary inflation we've seen means that Santana can never be re-signed after this deal is up, right?).

We can't control what Cashman may do with the prospects, but if we can keep Clemens out of the Bronx, it means that at minimum, either Igawa or Pavano will have important roles. A rotation of Schilling, Clemens, Dice-K, Beckett and Wakefield (or Papelbon) would be the one way the Red Sox can beat the Yanks advantage in lineup and bullpen (although if Paps were the closer again, I think that's a dead heat).

Edited January 8, 2007 by Dan Gould

[Matthew]

Thinking about the upcoming HOF announcement, I am realizing how old I'm getting. I followed all these guys careers from the start........... YIKES, I'm an old fart now.

Edited January 9, 2007 by Matthew

[HolyStitt]

Thinking about the upcoming HOF announcement, I am realizing how old I'm getting. I followed all these guys careers from the start........... YIKES, I'm an old fart now.

I said the same thing to my uncle once and he had a classic response:

"You're old when you have followed a players whole playing career, watched them eventually become a manager, move on to a few teams, and than finally retire."

He had a great point because I don't feel so old anymore!

[Dan Gould]

Here's a good sample of both intelligent and outrageously foolish HoF ballots. From the MLB site, here is how their writers voted:

Mike Bauman

Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson

Gwynn, an eight-time batting champion with a lifetime .338 average, is automatic for the Hall. Ripken's the streak and so much more. Beyond exceptional defense, with power and run production, he helped to redefine what a shortstop could be. Fifth on the all-time strikeout list, seventh in innings pitched, 25th in victories, Blyleven's numbers are in place. The annual question: Why isn't he already in? Gossage was a dominant reliever and a pioneer in the closer's role, Bruce Sutter's election should pave the way for this deserving candidacy. Another closer, Lee Smith -- now second all-time in saves -- was consistently successful over the long haul, and is deserving of induction. Jim Rice was an impact run-producer, one of the finest of his era. This is one clear criterion for election that is clearly met in this case. And Dawson was an all-around talent, in his prime he had power and speed and first-class defense, as those eight Gold Glove Awards demonstrate.

Barry Bloom

Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Lee Smith, Goose Gossage, Paul O'Neill, Tony Fernandez, Alan Trammell

The big question this year is McGwire. I voted for him for many reasons: He's innocent until proven guilty; instructions on the ballot are specific about considering his character and behavior while he was active as a player so that should preclude his post-career Congressional testimony. And the use of performancing-drugs was not prohibited in baseball during the course of his career. After all, he did hit 583 home runs.

Paul Bodi

Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Goose Gossage, Jack Morris, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, Dale Murphy

Gwynn and Ripken are no-brainers. Why it's taken Gossage, the dominant closer of his era, this long is a bigger mystery than how long it took Bruce Sutter to get in. Gossage was better. Why Morris doesn't get more support is mystifying. He was the ace on three World Series champions and dominated for a good decade. Dawson and Rice are comparable, with Dawson playing more games for more numbers than Rice. Each has better numbers than many HOFers, and played in the pre-inflationary period. Murphy doesn't get much support, but his decade of the '80s and back-to-back MVPs should at least keep him on the ballot.

Rich Draper

Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Lee Smith

Sorry, but McGwire and his artificially bloated homer stats will have to wait. Dawson had nearly 3,000 hits and was an RBI machine. Gwynn was the quintessential ballplayer, an eight-time batting champ. Gossage set the tone for future game-finishers, and Smith is among the all-time best closers. Rice deserves honor and Ripken's hits and HRs were significant.

Ken Gurnick

Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Rich Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Orel Hershiser, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Lee Smith

I don't see why Rice, Gossage or Dawson -- each having received more than 60 percent of the vote last year -- aren't already in. Gwynn and Ripken are easy picks. This will be my 15th and last vote for Garvey -- he'll come off the ballot next year -- but you don't make 10 All-Star Games without being one of the premier (and most famous) players of your generation.

Dick Kaegel

Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Rich Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Lee Smith

Ripken and Gwynn should be obvious shoo-ins for their remarkable careers. Blyleven, just 13 wins shy of 300, was stunning in many categories. Concepcion was a superb shortstop, a key cog of the Big Red Machine. Gossage personified closing, Smith had 478 saves and both had ERAs barely over 3.00. Dawson and Rice were game-breaking sluggers; Dawson also was a fine fielder, Rice hit over .300 seven times.

Jim Molony

Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Tommy John, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Lee Smith

Gwynn and Ripken should be locks. Gossage was dominating. I don't believe falling 13 wins shy of 300 should keep Blyleven out, or 12 short should exclude Tommy John. Dawson's numbers in spite of bad knees put him over the top. Smith, Morris and Rice were tougher calls, but deserve to make it to Cooperstown.

Carrie Muskat

Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr.

Gwynn and Ripken were no-brainers. Not only do they qualify for Cooperstown because of their stats, but also because of their character. Both are class acts. I hadn't seen Ripken in a few years, and he made an effort to stop and chat with me at the Winter Meetings. Gossage is one of my husband's favorites -- and I can't argue with him. When Gossage got his saves, he'd come in during the seventh and eighth innings, and actually put out the fire. There were no cheap saves. Andre Dawson was revered by his teammates, and I was lucky enough to cover him during his Cubs days. I would've given him my knees if it would've prolonged his career.

Mark Newman

Goose Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Cal Ripken Jr.

I voted for these four and then drove to Cooperstown to remind myself of why 'Hall" is the first four letters in "hallowed." These four deserve plaques next to Ty and Cy. I look for candidates who were great players over a great amount of time. No other criteria comes close. I'm not playing Commissioner with Big Mac and the "wait" vote is sophomoric and egocentric. He's on the ballot. If Pete Rose is on it, he's a first-ballot as well.

Marty Noble

Dave Concepcion, Goose Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr.

Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken essentially are no-brainer selections. Voters would have to search for reasons not to check their names. The image of Gossage's violent, leaning follow-through, his mustache, his nickname, the Yaz at-bat in the Bucky Dent game and the overwhelming results all contribute to his HOF credentials. And there's no such thing as a truly great team without a great shortstop. The Reds of the '70's were an extraordinary team and Concepcion an extraordinary shortstop.

Lyle Spencer

Bert Blyleven, Dave Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Rich Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Tommy John, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr., Alan Trammell

Gwynn and Ripken did nothing but honor the game and should be unanimous choices. Gossage was the most dominant closer I've seen. Concepcion was obscured by bigger names in the Big Red Machinery, but he was the glue -- like Trammell in Detroit, great defensively and a clutch run producer. Dawson was awesome in Montreal, the best in the game for a while, and has the numbers, like Rice. Garvey loved the big stage and delivered. Blyleven and John were remarkably durable and thrived under pressure. McGwire? I want to wait a year. I thought Canseco, when they were Bash Brothers, was the more valuable player.

Jim Street

Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Rich Gossage, Tony Gwynn, Jack Morris, Cal Ripken, Jr., Lee Smith

Voting for Gwynn and Ripken were no-brainers. Not selecting McGwire took some considerable thought. Being a one-dimensional player -- 583 of his 1,626 hits were home runs -- McGwire's overall numbers are not up to Hall of Fame standards. Also, It is high time that both Garvey, who is in his final year of BBWAA eligibility, and Blyleven are selected.

T.R. Sullivan

Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn, Andre Dawson, Rich Gossage, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire

Ripken and Gwynn are obvious. Dawson is a huge oversight, a great player offensively and defensively. Gossage dominated as a reliever. Morris and Trammell were good enough for long enough. McGwire? All right. With all that's gone on in baseball for the past 15 to 20 years, I just don't feel like singling out McGwire and publicly flogging him and him alone. There are many many others -- pitchers and hitters-- who, let's just say, could also be more forthcoming and honest. Dozens and dozens more, if not hundreds.

By the numbers

Below, a breakdown of how MLB.com's eligible voters cast their ballots for the Hall of Fame.

Goose Gossage 13

Tony Gwynn 13

Cal Ripken Jr. 13

Andre Dawson 11

Jim Rice 7

Lee Smith 7

Bert Blyleven 5

Steve Garvey 4

Jack Morris 4

Mark McGwire 3

Alan Trammell 3

Dave Concepcion 3

Tommy John 2

Tony Fernandez 1

Orel Hershiser 1

Dale Murphy 1

Paul O'Neill 1

The idiot who says that you have to be a "great player for a great number of years" should be taken out and shot. He votes for McGuire on that basis, when he hit probably 70% of his homers in about six 'roid filled years (and homers are his only claim to the Hall) but doesn't vote for Jim Rice, who over the course of 12 years batted .300 and hit 350 home runs (every other player to accomplish that feat is in the Hall). He also led ALL major leaguers in 10 offensive categories in those 12 years, and was in the top 5 in two others. That is being "great over a great number of years."

Then there's the fool who voted for O'Neill and not Rice.

[Matthew]

Dan's not a fan of Paul O'Neill? Who would've thunk it?

[Dan Gould]

Dan's not a fan of Paul O'Neill? Who would've thunk it?

Its not a question of being a fan or not. I flat-out hated Goose Gossage when he was shutting down the Sox and helping the Yanks win World Series. But I respected his ability and longevity and have felt that he has belonged in the Hall for a long time.

Its the Hall of Fame not the Hall of the Very Good, as some have said. By any measure, Paul O'Neill was at best, pretty good to good, and a vote for him is an atrocious abuse of power and renders the voter unworthy of any future involvement in Hall of Fame voting. O'Neill had four seasons of 100 RBIs. One top five MVP ballot (at number five). .288 lifetime BA. Mediocre power numbers. And I don't remember a single game-saving catch or particular defensive skill.

Even hard core Yankee fans can't possibly believe he belongs.

[Soulstation1]

where is pete rose?

[Quincy]

On the bright side it looks like Goose might get in. Maybe Hawk too. But it looks like Blyleven will get screwed again.

I think they should force the writers to pass some sort of test. That might cull the herd by 60% or so. And give TV & radio baseball announcers of a certain number of years a vote too.