2006-2007 Hot Stove Thread

[Chalupa]

Here are the relevant facts:

Pitched in the majors or not, he is the undisputed number one available arm and he is 26 years old. Zito has declining peripherals (particularly BB and K rates), and has shown a career-long inability to beat the Yankees. He's a non-starter as an option. Schmidt is older, has a history of elbow trouble and pitches in the NL. Both are going to get huge dollars - $75 million is my low-end guess. Compared to a total of $100 mil for the Japanese pitcher, it doesn't look so bad. Another important consideration is that the Red Sox have no competition to sign him. Boras can't say "I've got a 17 million dollar a year offer" because no one else has the right to negotiate. Boras can say that when he negotiates for Zito, and it will create pressure to over-pay.

Another factor: Let's say they sign him for 13 million a year (which I think is pushing it, they can probably get it done for 10-11). After this year, Schilling's 13 million comes off the books. The reality is they are paying for two aces for just one season, and then Matz gets ace dollars, and the remainder (Beckett, Papelbon, hopefully Lester) are all inexpensive (Beckett, to me, is cheap at 6 million a year; Paps and Lester are salary-controlled). Overall, starting in 2008, the Red Sox are situated to have one of the best rotations in the majors and all things considered, it will be a cheap one.

Well that's one way of looking at it. I think that Boras is still in a very good position. Here's why - Yes, he can only negotiate w/ the Sox - this year. If they don't cough up the money for him Boras can always say,"Hey let's try again next year" He already did that once before with, ahem, J.D. Drew

Last thing I'll mention is that there are opportunities to recoup the investment by taking advantage of Japanese interest in this player. That starts, but hardly ends, with licensing NESN broadcasts in Japan. NESN broadcasts would have Japanese sponsors, obviously, and any deal would call for sharing of ad revenue. There's still money to be made with Matz on board, and that is going to reduce the overall cost of this contract in a way that a deal for Schmidt or Zito never could.

I generally agree w/ this analysis but remember he's only going to play in 25 - 30 games. It would be different if they were signing an everday player. Are Japanese sponsors going to broadcast the 130 games when he doesn't play? I can't imagine there would be a lot of support for that either from the fans or the sponsors. So while there's money to recoup from this part of the deal I don't think it will be as much to offset his asking price compared to Zito.

I hope the Sox are able to sign him. If that happens then Zito goes to Yanks and not the Mets

[Noj]

I just had a terrible vision:

What if Nomar ends up with the Yankees? I've read that the Yankees are planning on Giambi being their full-time DH next year, which makes sense if Bernie retires and Sheffield is gone. The Dodgers have good young talent if they don't want to meet Nomar's price, and otherwise, with the Cubs signing A-Ram, they have no need for him. Its an obvious match up, and there are some sportswriters who've already predicted Nomar will sign.

What a horrible sight, if Nomar returns to Fenway wearing pinstripes.

I'm sure I'm not the only Dodger fan who'd be pissed off if they let Nomar go after his heroics last year. He's approaching legend status over here.

[Dan Gould]

Here are the relevant facts:

Pitched in the majors or not, he is the undisputed number one available arm and he is 26 years old. Zito has declining peripherals (particularly BB and K rates), and has shown a career-long inability to beat the Yankees. He's a non-starter as an option. Schmidt is older, has a history of elbow trouble and pitches in the NL. Both are going to get huge dollars - $75 million is my low-end guess. Compared to a total of $100 mil for the Japanese pitcher, it doesn't look so bad. Another important consideration is that the Red Sox have no competition to sign him. Boras can't say "I've got a 17 million dollar a year offer" because no one else has the right to negotiate. Boras can say that when he negotiates for Zito, and it will create pressure to over-pay.

Another factor: Let's say they sign him for 13 million a year (which I think is pushing it, they can probably get it done for 10-11). After this year, Schilling's 13 million comes off the books. The reality is they are paying for two aces for just one season, and then Matz gets ace dollars, and the remainder (Beckett, Papelbon, hopefully Lester) are all inexpensive (Beckett, to me, is cheap at 6 million a year; Paps and Lester are salary-controlled). Overall, starting in 2008, the Red Sox are situated to have one of the best rotations in the majors and all things considered, it will be a cheap one.

Well that's one way of looking at it. I think that Boras is still in a very good position. Here's why - Yes, he can only negotiate w/ the Sox - this year. If they don't cough up the money for him Boras can always say,"Hey let's try again next year" He already did that once before with, ahem, J.D. Drew

A countervailing influence is the fact that there is pressure on the Japanese player to make a deal so that his (former) team gets the money - that's a cultural thing. its also true that Boras could lose out entirely. He's signed for this negotiation. There's nothing that says he'll go with him again a year from now, and then Boras loses out entirely.

Another factor that can get a deal done without an enormous salary: The deal goes for, say, three years/36 million. He gets paid a huge amount, and becomes a free agent at the age of 29. You don't think he'd accept a lower salary in exchange for earlier free agency?

Now, I'm not convinced that will happen - the Red Sox have been looking at recent contract negotiations with young players like Coco and Beckett as an opportunity to sign people long-term for reasonable salaries, in anticipation that by the end of the contract, the dollars will look very fair or even cheap. So I expect them to do at least a four year deal.

BTW, I don't remotely understand your belief that if the Red Sox sign him, then Zito goes to the Yanks and not the Mets. How does taking the Red Sox out of that equation mean that the Mets won't go to the mat for Zito now? They apparently bid second highest, I don't doubt at all that they will go whole hog in for Zito having missed out on Matz. In fact, NY press (I think the News but I'm not sure) were arguing that the Yanks aren't really impressed with Zito and would rather go relatively cheap with a second tier starter that allows them to bring Hughes along slowly. I strongly suspect that Zito goes to the Mets, where he gets his old pitching coach, the bright lights and big city that this future "actor" craves, and easier NL lineups to face.

[Chalupa]

BTW, I don't remotely understand your belief that if the Red Sox sign him, then Zito goes to the Yanks and not the Mets. How does taking the Red Sox out of that equation mean that the Mets won't go to the mat for Zito now? They apparently bid second highest, I don't doubt at all that they will go whole hog in for Zito having missed out on Matz. In fact, NY press (I think the News but I'm not sure) were arguing that the Yanks aren't really impressed with Zito and would rather go relatively cheap with a second tier starter that allows them to bring Hughes along slowly. I strongly suspect that Zito goes to the Mets, where he gets his old pitching coach, the bright lights and big city that this future "actor" craves, and easier NL lineups to face.

The Yanks need him badly. Right now they have a bunch of #2 and #3 starters but no #1 guy. They need a #1 especially if the Sox have two #1 guys next year. And Zito is the best available. I can't see George losing out to both the Sox and the Mets in the same off season. Not after October's debacle. His ego won't stand for it. Not to mention he probably see this as his last best chance to get another championship before he hands over the reins.

Got to hand it to Zito he picked the perfect year to become a FA. Both the Yanks and Mets have a huge pitching spot to fill and money to burn.

[Dan Gould]

Well, I can see George's ego getting in the way, but I'm not at all sure Zito is a number one to begin with. Looks to me like you'll be adding another number 2 to go with Moose and the Taiwanese guy whose name completely escapes me.

One other thing about recouping the money - you may very well be right that interest in NESN broadcasts will be less since he is a starting pitcher - but there are other marketing opportunities, starting with apparel. You'll see a lot of cross-promotions with the Red Sox and Japanese partners. A whole nother factor isn't so much recouping the investment but establishing a presence in Far East baseball. They've spent a lot of money in Latin America and particulary the Dominican, due to Pedro, Manny and Papi. Now they're looking to establish themselves in the other major baseball market.

There's a third baseman who was posted last week, I think the results will be in on Friday. Supposedly the Sox were in on him, too. He's won Gold Gloves, and bats .300/30/100 for the last couple of years. Would be interesting if they sign this guy, too and offload Lowell, and now it would be doubly interesting if they bring him on to give Matz a friendly face to hang out with. Would instantly solve the problem of Varitek trying to communicate on the mound, and from this player's stats, he sounds like he is Lowell's equal in the field and better at the plate. I'm hoping they went for him, especially since Lowell's comeback year established that he's still got something left.

[Chalupa]

I'm not totally convinced about Zito being a #1 either but his numbers were pretty similar to Schill's last year. He would still be better than anyone currently wearing pinstripes.

Yes, I guess if the Sox see signing Maz as a way of getting into the Japanese market then this deal does make sense for them. It's hard to put a dollar amount on things like having an image as a good, friendly team for overseas ballplayers. If it helps them sign more stars in the future then it will definitely be worth it.

[Dan Gould]

I'm not totally convinced about Zito being a #1 either but his numbers were pretty similar to Schill's last year. He would still be better than anyone currently wearing pinstripes.

Yes, I guess if the Sox see signing Maz as a way of getting into the Japanese market then this deal does make sense for them. It's hard to put a dollar amount on things like having an image as a good, friendly team for overseas ballplayers. If it helps them sign more stars in the future then it will definitely be worth it.

Yeah, if Wang regresses to what his peripherals say he ought to be, then Zito will be better than anyone else on the staff. At least for a season or two.

I don't even think that the Red Sox are trying to sign more Asian stars in the future, so much as establishing themselves to sign prospects before they even enter the control of Japanese teams. That will pay off in the future without overpaying for anyone.

[Matthew]

Can' tsay I'm too impressed with Matz stats:

Matsuzaka's Career With Seibu

W-L ERA SO IP

2006 17-5 2.13 200 186.3

2005 14-13 2.30 226 215.0

2004 10-6 2.90 127 146.0

2003 16-7 2.83 215 194.0

2002 6-2 3.68 78 73.3

2001 15-14 3.60 214 240.3

2000 14-7 3.97 144 167.6

1999 16-5 2.60 151 180.0

I mean, this guy is no workhorse for a no. 1 starter. Curve ball guys fron Japan go great guns the first year, but after that, they're not all that. To my mind, Jason Schmidt would be a much better pitcher, right out of the mold of St. Schilling. Then again, I think Schmidt is a great pitcher, and someone who could do very well in the AL.

Edited November 14, 2006 by Matthew

[Dan Gould]

Can' tsay I'm too impressed with Matz stats:

Matsuzaka's Career With Seibu

W-L ERA SO IP

2006 17-5 2.13 200 186.3

2005 14-13 2.30 226 215.0

2004 10-6 2.90 127 146.0

2003 16-7 2.83 215 194.0

2002 6-2 3.68 78 73.3

2001 15-14 3.60 214 240.3

2000 14-7 3.97 144 167.6

1999 16-5 2.60 151 180.0

I mean, this guy is no workhorse for a no. 1 starter. Curve ball guys fron Japan go great guns the first year, but after that, they're not all that. To my mind, Jason Schmidt would be a much better pitcher, right out of the mold of St. Schilling. Then again, I think Schmidt is a great pitcher, and someone who could do very well in the AL.

Well, since you're bringing it up, here's some more analysis, by professionals:

http://www.boston.com/sports/nesn/wilbur/s...ions/index.html

Great expectations

By Eric Wilbur, Boston.com Staff

And you thought comparing a National League pitcher to his American League counterparts could be daunting.

For all the mind-boggling dollars the Red Sox are prepared to sink into Japanese pitching star Daisuke Matsuzaka -- an investment that will likely top $100 million by the time a contract is agreed upon -- the bottom line remains that nobody is quite sure how he'll fare once arriving in America. While names like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui are most commonly associated with Matsuzaka, guys like Hideki Irabu and -- while not Japanese -- Robinson Checo remain the primary concerns about importing unknown commodities into the major leagues.

It was just a year ago too, remember, that plenty hailed Boston's trade for Josh Beckett as the most significant since Pedro Martinez. Today, Hanley Ramirez, the shortstop prospect dealt to the Marlins in that deal, is the NL Rookie of the Year, while the Red Sox hope Beckett will see steady progress in 2007 after struggling a good portion of his first season in the junior circuit. More encouraging was that the 26-year-old won a career-high 16 games. Less encouraging was his career-high 5.01 ERA.

If Beckett's adjustment to the more powerful AL was an often-bumpy period, what exactly should we expect out of an imported arm from halfway across the earth?

By most accounts, plenty.

According to Japanese Players.com (which already classifies Matsuzaka as Red Sox property), here are his stats over eight years with the Seibu Lions:

As Jeff Sackmann of The Hardball Times puts it, those are Johan Santana numbers, which easily classify as No. 1 starter and Cy Young material in the American League. But if we consider the NL inferior to the AL, how should we treat the Nippon Professional Baseball League?

One way to predict Matsuzaka's stats would be Jim Albright's method for adjustment, which even the author admits has its flaws.

The means for calculating pitching runs came from Bill James' component ERA. I tried to use component ERA on the existing conversions of hits, homers, walks, and homers, and it was quite clear that my conversion factors worked poorly, especially the ones for walks and strikeouts. A major problem, beyond even the fact these particular statistics do not seem to project quite as well as many of the others, was that the factors were based on the hitters that played in both leagues.

The Matsuzaka Watch Blog, which contains any and all projections, news, and rumor about the Japanese pitcher, uses Albright's method and projects the following numbers for Matsuzaka in the majors, based on his 2005 season:

19-5 record

28 games started

215 innings pitched

185 hits allowed

16 homers allowed

63 walks allowed

200 strikeouts

2.74 ERA

1.154 WHIP

8.37 strikeouts per nine innings

3.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio

Then again, Albright hasn't exactly been on the money with his projections over the past decade. Sackmann was also skeptical, so he attempted to use a different method.

It seems well established that the NPB hosts a higher level of baseball than American Triple-A, but for the sake of argument, let's translate his 2005 NPB stats as if they were accumulated in the International League. (I can't find all the components I need to do this with 2006 stats, so 2005 will have to suffice for now.)

2005 IP HR BB K FIP

NPB 215 13 49 226 2.56

MLB 215 18 65 189 3.44

So, as long as there's nothing about Matsuzaka that makes him incompatible with success in America, and assuming that the Seibu faces harder competition than Pawtucket does, the upper bound on his ERA these days would seem to be about 3.50.

An ERA of 3.50, by the way, would be nearly a half-run better than the next best pitcher (Curt Schilling) on Boston's 2006 starting staff.

Meanwhile, the folks over at Baseball Prospectus use Clay Davenport's performance translation, which "combines an alternate system to MLE for translating minor league performance with a normalizing step that converts translated performance to a single number on the same scale as batting average." Got that? Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus breaks it down further:

Some terminology to get out of the way: NRA is Normalized Runs Allowed, where the scale to compare a guy against is a world where an average pitcher allows 4.5 runs per nine innings. PERA is a pitcher's ERA based on his peripheral statistics -- his hits, homers, walks allowed, that sort of thing, also set to where 4.50 is the baseline. The two at the end might be particularly foreign to you, but 'dH' describes how many (in this case) fewer hits a pitcher allowed than you might expect, and 'dR' is how many fewer runs. Although BABIP rates fluctuate for most pitchers, there's a level of quality at which it stops looking random and starts speaking to simple dominance, and this comparison indicates that Matsuzaka's one of those guys. The runs element is the sort of thing where a pitcher who induces a lot of double-plays would wind up trending more negative (say, Greg Maddux), and somebody like Nolan Ryan -- poor fielder, poor at holding runners, and all-time wild-pitch record-holder -- does worse than your average hurler. In this instance, it says that there are no such surprises, for or against.

Using that criteria, Kahrl compares Matsuzaka favorably to Roger Clemens, circa 2003-06, the last three seasons during which the former Sox ace dominated for the Houston Astros.

Davenport's calculations also favorably compare Matsuzaka to Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, and Jake Peavy. That is indeed good company.

"The only pitcher I would say he seems to be clearly behind is Santana," Davenport writes. "I think Clemens has been ahead, but I'm not sure you can continue to project that at a coming Age-44 season. It's also safe to put Halladay and Oswalt ahead too, although the difference there is slim."

With Matsuzaka, the Red Sox would enter 2007 with a top-of-the-rotation guy to go along with Schilling, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield. And that's before you go and whisper about Clemens' possible return to Boston, which could give the Sox a dominant mix of young and veteran arms that should threaten to win a title in 2007, as well as provide a solid foundation for future seasons. If the Red Sox see vast opportunity in selling their name in Japan, perhaps a related question is how much more cash they could recoup on a new generation of “21” t-shirts and jerseys?

Combine those more than favorable projections with the untapped marketing potential the Red Sox will become the beneficiary of in the Far East, and it's evident why such a wealthy investment's risk is more than worth the reward.

And when you say that he "isn't a workhorse" you might want to consider that Japanese pitchers go every six days, which would make innings pitched less meaningful a statistic, as well as the fact that he's thrown 250 pitch extra inning games and come back the next day to pitch the ninth (that was in high school). In fact, one of the biggest question marks people have is the fact that he has thrown so many pitches at a young age, and whether that means he will break down soon. I'd say that qualifies him as a workhorse.

Edited November 14, 2006 by Dan Gould

[Matthew]

Can't say I'm too impressed with Matz stats:

Matsuzaka's Career With Seibu

W-L ERA SO IP

2006 17-5 2.13 200 186.3

2005 14-13 2.30 226 215.0

2004 10-6 2.90 127 146.0

2003 16-7 2.83 215 194.0

2002 6-2 3.68 78 73.3

2001 15-14 3.60 214 240.3

2000 14-7 3.97 144 167.6

1999 16-5 2.60 151 180.0

I mean, this guy is no workhorse for a no. 1 starter. Curve ball guys fron Japan go great guns the first year, but after that, they're not all that. To my mind, Jason Schmidt would be a much better pitcher, right out of the mold of St. Schilling. Then again, I think Schmidt is a great pitcher, and someone who could do very well in the AL.

Well, since you're bringing it up, here's some more analysis, by professionals:

http://www.boston.com/sports/nesn/wilbur/s...ions/index.html

Great expectations

By Eric Wilbur, Boston.com Staff

And you thought comparing a National League pitcher to his American League counterparts could be daunting.

For all the mind-boggling dollars the Red Sox are prepared to sink into Japanese pitching star Daisuke Matsuzaka -- an investment that will likely top $100 million by the time a contract is agreed upon -- the bottom line remains that nobody is quite sure how he'll fare once arriving in America. While names like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui are most commonly associated with Matsuzaka, guys like Hideki Irabu and -- while not Japanese -- Robinson Checo remain the primary concerns about importing unknown commodities into the major leagues.

It was just a year ago too, remember, that plenty hailed Boston's trade for Josh Beckett as the most significant since Pedro Martinez. Today, Hanley Ramirez, the shortstop prospect dealt to the Marlins in that deal, is the NL Rookie of the Year, while the Red Sox hope Beckett will see steady progress in 2007 after struggling a good portion of his first season in the junior circuit. More encouraging was that the 26-year-old won a career-high 16 games. Less encouraging was his career-high 5.01 ERA.

If Beckett's adjustment to the more powerful AL was an often-bumpy period, what exactly should we expect out of an imported arm from halfway across the earth?

By most accounts, plenty.

According to Japanese Players.com (which already classifies Matsuzaka as Red Sox property), here are his stats over eight years with the Seibu Lions:

As Jeff Sackmann of The Hardball Times puts it, those are Johan Santana numbers, which easily classify as No. 1 starter and Cy Young material in the American League. But if we consider the NL inferior to the AL, how should we treat the Nippon Professional Baseball League?

One way to predict Matsuzaka's stats would be Jim Albright's method for adjustment, which even the author admits has its flaws.

The means for calculating pitching runs came from Bill James' component ERA. I tried to use component ERA on the existing conversions of hits, homers, walks, and homers, and it was quite clear that my conversion factors worked poorly, especially the ones for walks and strikeouts. A major problem, beyond even the fact these particular statistics do not seem to project quite as well as many of the others, was that the factors were based on the hitters that played in both leagues.

The Matsuzaka Watch Blog, which contains any and all projections, news, and rumor about the Japanese pitcher, uses Albright's method and projects the following numbers for Matsuzaka in the majors, based on his 2005 season:

19-5 record

28 games started

215 innings pitched

185 hits allowed

16 homers allowed

63 walks allowed

200 strikeouts

2.74 ERA

1.154 WHIP

8.37 strikeouts per nine innings

3.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio

Then again, Albright hasn't exactly been on the money with his projections over the past decade. Sackmann was also skeptical, so he attempted to use a different method.

It seems well established that the NPB hosts a higher level of baseball than American Triple-A, but for the sake of argument, let's translate his 2005 NPB stats as if they were accumulated in the International League. (I can't find all the components I need to do this with 2006 stats, so 2005 will have to suffice for now.)

2005 IP HR BB K FIP

NPB 215 13 49 226 2.56

MLB 215 18 65 189 3.44

So, as long as there's nothing about Matsuzaka that makes him incompatible with success in America, and assuming that the Seibu faces harder competition than Pawtucket does, the upper bound on his ERA these days would seem to be about 3.50.

An ERA of 3.50, by the way, would be nearly a half-run better than the next best pitcher (Curt Schilling) on Boston's 2006 starting staff.

Meanwhile, the folks over at Baseball Prospectus use Clay Davenport's performance translation, which "combines an alternate system to MLE for translating minor league performance with a normalizing step that converts translated performance to a single number on the same scale as batting average." Got that? Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus breaks it down further:

Some terminology to get out of the way: NRA is Normalized Runs Allowed, where the scale to compare a guy against is a world where an average pitcher allows 4.5 runs per nine innings. PERA is a pitcher's ERA based on his peripheral statistics -- his hits, homers, walks allowed, that sort of thing, also set to where 4.50 is the baseline. The two at the end might be particularly foreign to you, but 'dH' describes how many (in this case) fewer hits a pitcher allowed than you might expect, and 'dR' is how many fewer runs. Although BABIP rates fluctuate for most pitchers, there's a level of quality at which it stops looking random and starts speaking to simple dominance, and this comparison indicates that Matsuzaka's one of those guys. The runs element is the sort of thing where a pitcher who induces a lot of double-plays would wind up trending more negative (say, Greg Maddux), and somebody like Nolan Ryan -- poor fielder, poor at holding runners, and all-time wild-pitch record-holder -- does worse than your average hurler. In this instance, it says that there are no such surprises, for or against.

Using that criteria, Kahrl compares Matsuzaka favorably to Roger Clemens, circa 2003-06, the last three seasons during which the former Sox ace dominated for the Houston Astros.

Davenport's calculations also favorably compare Matsuzaka to Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, and Jake Peavy. That is indeed good company.

"The only pitcher I would say he seems to be clearly behind is Santana," Davenport writes. "I think Clemens has been ahead, but I'm not sure you can continue to project that at a coming Age-44 season. It's also safe to put Halladay and Oswalt ahead too, although the difference there is slim."

With Matsuzaka, the Red Sox would enter 2007 with a top-of-the-rotation guy to go along with Schilling, Jonathan Papelbon, Josh Beckett, and Tim Wakefield. And that's before you go and whisper about Clemens' possible return to Boston, which could give the Sox a dominant mix of young and veteran arms that should threaten to win a title in 2007, as well as provide a solid foundation for future seasons. If the Red Sox see vast opportunity in selling their name in Japan, perhaps a related question is how much more cash they could recoup on a new generation of “21” t-shirts and jerseys?

Combine those more than favorable projections with the untapped marketing potential the Red Sox will become the beneficiary of in the Far East, and it's evident why such a wealthy investment's risk is more than worth the reward.

Dan, who are you going to trust, some "professional" or a real fan? Hey, I played baseball until I was eighteen, Jeesh!!!

Edited November 14, 2006 by Matthew

[BERIGAN]

...

Dan, who are you going to trust, some "professional" or a real fan? Hey, I played baseball until I was eighteen, Jeesh!!!

All I know, is there wasn't a single baseball professional that predicted at the start of the playoffs the Cards winning it all....not to bring that touchy subject again!

It will be interesting....something I didn't see in the article above...are Japanese parks still much smaller than ML parks???

Edited November 14, 2006 by BERIGAN

[BERIGAN]

....To my mind, Jason Schmidt would be a much better pitcher, right out of the mold of St. Schilling. Then again, I think Schmidt is a great pitcher, and someone who could do very well in the AL.

I agree. Folks see the low wins and forget how good he is. His numbers are down a little bit....but still a #1

Edited November 14, 2006 by BERIGAN

[BERIGAN]

Oh by the way, the Braves have the same 80 Mil to spend for 2007, so I really enjoy hearing about teams that have 50 mil to burn just for the rights to a guy...

[T.D.]

He's 38 as well. The Yanks got something for someone they just don't need. and my God, they saved some money even!!! Of course I thought Detroit was nuts for going after Kenny Rogers.

I wish the Yanks had just dumped him, and like someone mentioned above he'd have to settle for a one year deal in Pittsburgh.

38, injured all the time, and a toxic clubhouse presence. I hope his professed good relationship with Leyland holds up...To Sheffield's credit (I'm not a big fan, to put it mildly), he does hustle and play hurt.

I think the Yankees were so happy not to have to pay any of Sheff's 2007 salary (didn't the Tigers spring for a new 3-year deal?) that they were willing to go for quantity over quality, arms-wise.

Not too bad a deal for the NYY IMO. Yanks would have released him if they didn't fear the Bosox stepping up (the one-year $13MM sign-and-trade ruse was crafted solely to avoid Boston). Even if Sheffield has a good year in 2007, the prospect of him fuming on the Tiger bench in 2009, at 40, isn't pretty!

Edited November 15, 2006 by T.D.

[Dan Gould]

Dan, who are you going to trust, some "professional" or a real fan? Hey, I played baseball until I was eighteen, Jeesh!!!

[Dan Gould]

He's 38 as well. The Yanks got something for someone they just don't need. and my God, they saved some money even!!! Of course I thought Detroit was nuts for going after Kenny Rogers.

I wish the Yanks had just dumped him, and like someone mentioned above he'd have to settle for a one year deal in Pittsburgh.

38, injured all the time, and a toxic clubhouse presence. I hope his professed good relationship with Leyland holds up...To Sheffield's credit (I'm not a big fan, to put it mildly), he does hustle and play hurt.

I think the Yankees were so happy not to have to pay any of Sheff's 2007 salary (didn't the Tigers spring for a new 3-year deal?) that they were willing to go for quantity over quality, arms-wise.

Not too bad a deal for the NYY IMO. Yanks would have released him if they didn't fear the Bosox stepping up (the one-year $13MM sign-and-trade ruse was crafted solely to avoid Boston). Even if Sheffield has a good year in 2007, the prospect of him fuming on the Tiger bench in 2009, at 40, isn't pretty!

"injured all the time" yet he "does hustle and play hurt"?

Fact is, since 1999, Sheffield has played 150 games or more four times, including the three years prior to last season's ill-fated campaign, 140 games two more times, one season of 135. I don't think "injured all the time" is accurate.

It is true that the Yanks didn't pick up any part of his salary and the Tigers added the two years Sheffield wanted. I think they've got a great middle of the lineup presence for at least a year or two; the last year may very well see him fuming on the bench, which I agree won't be pretty.

[Dan Gould]

Oh by the way, the Braves have the same 80 Mil to spend for 2007, so I really enjoy hearing about teams that have 50 mil to burn just for the rights to a guy...

FWIW, Conrad, I'm pretty sure the 50 million is coming right out of John Henry's checkbook, not the team's. You don't plan on a 50 million dollar payment and budget it ahead of time.

So really, all you need is to ditch the corporate owner and find a guy with deep pockets.

[T.D.]

"injured all the time" yet he "does hustle and play hurt"?

Ok, not worded so well...Apart from the big 2006 DL stay, Sheffield has constantly been playing through minor, nagging injuries during his Yankee tenure. And he does have a chronically bad knee IIRC (for which he took "flaxseed oil" or something ). Maybe the switch to DH will ease wear and tear, and he'll play 140-150 games for a couple of years. OTOH, maybe the aging process will continue and his playing time will fall off. I lean to the latter, particularly with a steroid-implicated player, but time will tell.

I still think the Yankees got an OK return on the trade. They prefer Abreu in the OF, probably want to develop Cabrera, Giambi (who seems totally untradeable) will be shifting to full-time DH, and they didn't want to deal with a bench-riding Sheffield.

I had a far-out theory that the NYY would try and trade Matsui to the Mariners or Dodgers, in hopes that the Japanese fan appeal would bring back some pitching. Doesn't seem to be playing out.

[Dan Gould]

"injured all the time" yet he "does hustle and play hurt"?

Ok, not worded so well...Apart from the big 2006 DL stay, Sheffield has constantly been playing through minor, nagging injuries during his Yankee tenure. And he does have a chronically bad knee IIRC (for which he took "flaxseed oil" or something ). Maybe the switch to DH will ease wear and tear, and he'll play 140-150 games for a couple of years. OTOH, maybe the aging process will continue and his playing time will fall off. I lean to the latter, particularly with a steroid-implicated player, but time will tell.

I still think the Yankees got an OK return on the trade. They prefer Abreu in the OF, probably want to develop Cabrera, Giambi (who seems totally untradeable) will be shifting to full-time DH, and they didn't want to deal with a bench-riding Sheffield.

I had a far-out theory that the NYY would try and trade Matsui to the Mariners or Dodgers, in hopes that the Japanese fan appeal would bring back some pitching. Doesn't seem to be playing out.

Well, I think they did well in keeping Sheffield away from their immediate rival, and if the pitchers are allowed to develop and do turn into something, its an excellent deal. At minimum, they stockpiled prospects they can use in trade. I still say, however, that they could have gotten more, in terms of major league talent, had they waited til Soriano and Lee shake out. The losing bidders would have ponied up for Sheffield, I think.

No reason to trade Matsui at this point, even though Melky deserves to play every day. But he can wait one more year and they'll probably let Abreu leave, or trade Matsui, and let Melky play.

[Dan Gould]

Oh by the way, the Braves have the same 80 Mil to spend for 2007, so I really enjoy hearing about teams that have 50 mil to burn just for the rights to a guy...

It did not take 50 mil just for the rights.

It took 51.1 mil.

[BERIGAN]

Updated: Nov. 14, 2006, 8:21 PM ET

Red Sox's winning bid for Matsuzaka -- $51.1 million

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2662193

Blah, blah, blah, so happy for you....

Edited November 15, 2006 by BERIGAN

[BERIGAN]

Oh by the way, the Braves have the same 80 Mil to spend for 2007, so I really enjoy hearing about teams that have 50 mil to burn just for the rights to a guy...

FWIW, Conrad, I'm pretty sure the 50 million is coming right out of John Henry's checkbook, not the team's. You don't plan on a 50 million dollar payment and budget it ahead of time.

So really, all you need is to ditch the corporate owner and find a guy with deep pockets.

Dan, strangely enough Time Warner wants to sell to some other faceless corp called Liberty. In fact, they stopped listening to all other offers since Feb. yet, no sale and here it is mid November.

We do need some deep pockets guy, but it doesn't look likely.........

[chris olivarez]

I hope the Red Sox ownership does have deep pockets because Boras is going to hold that pitcher for ransom. Throw JD Drew into the mix and Boras is going to have to build his own bank to hold all that money.

[Dan Gould]

Curve ball guys fron Japan go great guns the first year, but after that, they're not all that.

I know I'm kicking a dead horse here, Matthew, but I did get a kick out of this from Bob Ryan's Globe column:

According to a National League scout quoted by "Baseball Prospectus," the repertoire consists of a mid-90s fastball, a cutter, a two-seam fastball known as a "shuuto," a curveball, a changeup, a splitter, and a slider. Again according to Baseball Prospectus, another NL scout says he has three different sliders, which would give him nine pitches. Mike Mussina will be jealous.

[Matthew]

Curve ball guys fron Japan go great guns the first year, but after that, they're not all that.

I know I'm kicking a dead horse here, Matthew, but I did get a kick out of this from Bob Ryan's Globe column:

According to a National League scout quoted by "Baseball Prospectus," the repertoire consists of a mid-90s fastball, a cutter, a two-seam fastball known as a "shuuto," a curveball, a changeup, a splitter, and a slider. Again according to Baseball Prospectus, another NL scout says he has three different sliders, which would give him nine pitches. Mike Mussina will be jealous.

...and that's with his right hand, you should see him left-handed!