2006 MLB Thread

[Dave James]

According to Buster Olney, if you take into account both the number of home games and the teams each will be playing, the Yankees have a more favorable second half schedule than do the Sox.

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

According to Buster Olney, if you take into account both the number of home games and the teams each will be playing, the Yankees have a more favorable second half schedule than do the Sox.

Up over and out.

Olney is a fool who doesn't know squat. I've cross-checked their respective schedules. You can break it down like this:

Yanks play the Angels 4 times at home, 3 away. Sox play them three times on the road. Even with the games at the Stadium, that's advantage Sox.

Yanks play the White Sox three times in Chicago; we play them three times at home. Advantage Sox.

Yanks play the Orioles 6 times at home, 4 away; we play them 6 home, 3 away. Minor advantage Yanks.

Games left against Detroit, Minnesota and Seattle: Same number of games, played in the same proportion of home/away. No advantage.

Yanks play KC 3 times away, we play Kansas City 3 times away and 3 times at home. Advantage Sox.

We play each other 9 times, 5 are at Fenway. Minor advantage Sox.

Tampa: Yanks play 3 at home, 4 away. Sox play 2 home, 3 away. Advantage Yanks.

Toronto: Yanks play 4 at home, 4 away. Sox play 6 at home, 3 away. With the extra games at home, this is a wash, especially considering that the Yanks play Toronto at home the last three games of the year. If Toronto is still in it, watch out..

Another way to break it down.

Yankee Games Left Against Contenders:

20 at home, 14 on the road. 34 total.

Red Sox Games Left Against Contenders:

21 at home, 11 on the road. 32 total.

Fewer games, fewer on the road, advantage Red Sox.

Yankee Games Left Against the Dregs of the AL:

9 at home, 14 on the road. 23 total.

Red Sox Games Left Against the Dregs of the AL:

14 at home, 12 on the road. 26 total.

More games against weak teams, and significantly more of them at home: Big advantage to the Sox.

If anyone can show me why Olney's analysis contradicts this, I'd love to hear it. Otherwise, as Ronnie Reagan once said, facts are stupid things. And the overwhelming fact is that the Red Sox have a clear and obvious advantage in the schedule.

[Dan Gould]

Interesting counter-spin on the Abreu acquisition from Tom Verducci of SI:

Bobby Abreu, Yankees

He's No. 1 on this list by default, being the best player traded. Sure, New York is crowing about how many pitches he takes and how often he gets on base. The Yankees' lineup, stocked with patient hitters, should be able to wear down pitchers and regularly stretch games past the three-hour mark. And the Yankees essentially gave up nothing but money, making this a low-risk, high-reward proposition. They clearly are a much better team with Abreu in right field than Bernie Williams or Aaron Guiel.

But hold on. This just might be Raul Mondesi revisited, too. Even if the Yankees gave up nearly nothing in terms of talent, New York fans might find Abreu not at all to their liking and the Yankees could be stuck paying $21.4 million for eight months of a player in decline. (I'd rather have Gary Sheffield next season than Abreu.)

Abreu has hit five home runs on the road since the 2005 All-Star break. His slugging percentage has gotten worse with every month this season (.550, .471, .404, .313). Yankees fans will chafe at his penchant for not going all-out for balls in right field, especially anything remotely close to the walls, and for his refusal to hit aggressively in run-scoring situations. It should be alarming that Abreu has whiffed once in every three at-bats in close and late situations (20 in 61 at-bats) while hitting .230. He's the kind of hitter who is happy with a walk in run-scoring situations, which sometimes leads to looking at third strikes.

Does he get on base? Sure. But a $21.4 million corner outfielder in the AL had better also hit with power and knock in big runs. And another thing or two: He's never played a postseason game, and the Phillies, who are wrongly being portrayed as some small-market team that had to dump payroll, could not wait to rid themselves of Abreu to remake their team. It's a good move for the Yankees, but not without the possibility that it could blow up on them.

And he didn't even mention the tendency of imported stars to struggle in pinstripes.

[Dan Gould]

Well the Sox just took another major hit to their chances:

According to the Globe, Varitek is out 4-6 weeks following arthroscopic surgery on his knee. Now, Varitek wasn't hitting a lick, but he was still 80 points better than Mirabelli's .180. And Tek has some legs and can occasionally beat out a double play relay. Mirabelli can't do that in his dreams.

[Dave James]

The injury worm is turning. It will be interesting to see how the Sox fare without some of their keys guys. They still have one DL assignment to go to match the Yanks who have been without Cano, Matsui and Sheffield for well over a month. Even though the guys Boston has lost aren't nearly as productive as these three, it should still be a true test of their mettle. Their timing with regard to Varitek couldn't have been any worse either. The only way they can get another catcher now is if someone clears waivers.

Up over and out.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Dave James

[Dan Gould]

Ken Huckaby was the third backup in the Spring (Flaherty quit, Bard was sent to San Diego for Mirabelli). His contract was purchased from Pawtucket.

You know, I hear from plenty of Yankee fans about how bad it is to lose two of the starting nine for most of the year, and Cano for six weeks, too.

Try losing 3/5 of your starting rotation, including two of your biggest winners from last year.

Yes, the injury worm has turned. But anyone who thinks that the Yankees suffered injuries and the Sox have sailed along hasn't paid any attention.

[Brad]

Looks like this could be a struggle for the Sox now to even make the playoffs.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Brad

[Dave James]

Brad,

I agree that the loss of Veritek is huge. Not just for what he does on the field, but he's a real presence in the locker room as well. Although a player would have to clear waivers in order for the Sox to get another catcher, I've heard that Mike Lieberthal could be a possibility due to his rather large salary. Regardless of what the Sox wind up doing for a backstop, I wouldn't sell them short. Not on Big Papi's watch. I really think the whole American League may come down to the final weekend as close as things appear to be.

BTW, ESPN is reporting that the Yankees are looking at Gary Sheffield playing first base. Apparently, he's more than OK with the idea. He's been doing some work around the bag with Don Mattingly and, according to Joe Torre, he's already ordered a first basemen's glove. If both he and Matsui can come back healthy, that's some line-up they'll be able to put on the field.

Up over and out.

Edited August 2, 2006 by Dave James

[Dan Gould]

I don't think a lot of teams are going to put in waiver claims on back-up catchers.

There's also Chris Widger, already DFA'd and released yesterday by the White Sox. The White Sox staff ERA was 3.36 when he was behind the plate.

Javy Lopez is desperate for a change of scenery, has no position on the O's, and he certainly has swung a more potent bat than Mirabelli through his career.

I'm not concerned about landing a backup, but I am concerned about surviving Tek's absence. You may be right, Brad, it will be a challenge from here on out. Probably the biggest key will be Wells showing that his poor start was the result of not making a rehab start and that there is still something left in the tank. I do suspect that there is, he just has to regain his command. He can still make a difference down the stretch.

[Man with the Golden Arm]

Great ball game! Cleveland 8, Red Sox 9.

(I'm off to bed now, it's 4:30 AM over here...)

Hans is not only watching baseball, but at 4:30 AM?

Ball games are live on cable TV over here, but unfortunately (for me) mostly in the middle of our night...

I thought you Yurpeans didn't like baseball?

You clearly didn't take a peek at my profile

Back to Big Papi:

Since July 31, 2005, he leads the majors with 60 home runs and 166 RBI in 161 games. So if he hits one tonite, that equals Maris' mark over 162 games. He's on pace for 58, it would be great if he can exceed that by a hair and break 61, then he'd be the first to break the old mark with no steroid stigma attached.

His walk-off HR was amazing

Console yourself in knowing that my 11 yr old daughter did not get home from Fenway til 1 AM.

Her FIRST Sox game!!!! Having Manny and Papi et al... (two guys who's posters loom above her bed) get things rolling and finish it off like they did has turned her head around. One sweet game for the memories! Sure wished I'd been there.

Now it looks like I might be needing to off some jazz to afford more tickets.

[BERIGAN]

Interesting counter-spin on the Abreu acquisition from Tom Verducci of SI:

Bobby Abreu, Yankees

He's No. 1 on this list by default, being the best player traded. Sure, New York is crowing about how many pitches he takes and how often he gets on base. The Yankees' lineup, stocked with patient hitters, should be able to wear down pitchers and regularly stretch games past the three-hour mark. And the Yankees essentially gave up nothing but money, making this a low-risk, high-reward proposition. They clearly are a much better team with Abreu in right field than Bernie Williams or Aaron Guiel.

But hold on. This just might be Raul Mondesi revisited, too. Even if the Yankees gave up nearly nothing in terms of talent, New York fans might find Abreu not at all to their liking and the Yankees could be stuck paying $21.4 million for eight months of a player in decline. (I'd rather have Gary Sheffield next season than Abreu.)

Abreu has hit five home runs on the road since the 2005 All-Star break. His slugging percentage has gotten worse with every month this season (.550, .471, .404, .313). Yankees fans will chafe at his penchant for not going all-out for balls in right field, especially anything remotely close to the walls, and for his refusal to hit aggressively in run-scoring situations. It should be alarming that Abreu has whiffed once in every three at-bats in close and late situations (20 in 61 at-bats) while hitting .230. He's the kind of hitter who is happy with a walk in run-scoring situations, which sometimes leads to looking at third strikes.

Does he get on base? Sure. But a $21.4 million corner outfielder in the AL had better also hit with power and knock in big runs. And another thing or two: He's never played a postseason game, and the Phillies, who are wrongly being portrayed as some small-market team that had to dump payroll, could not wait to rid themselves of Abreu to remake their team. It's a good move for the Yankees, but not without the possibility that it could blow up on them.

And he didn't even mention the tendency of imported stars to struggle in pinstripes.

Tom Verducci is a fool who doesn't know squat!

Bobby Abreu is Not Raul Mondesi!!! Jesus!!! Mondesi was a headcase.

Yankees fans will chafe at his penchant for not going all-out for balls in right field, especially anything remotely close to the walls, and for his refusal to hit aggressively in run-scoring situations.

You would not believe the shit you hear about Chipper Jones in Atlanta. A fair number of fans act like he doesn't give a damn whether the team wins or loses, never runs to first hard,(He has had tons of leg problems the last few years, but they want him to run full speed to reinjure himself on an out) or that he never plays hard, etc. You'd think he was a AAA guy if you only read the Atlanta paper. So, just cuz Abreu isn't dumb enough to run into walls, Yankee fans shouldn't hold that against him. And what the fuck is hit aggressively in run-scoring situations? I mean, I kinda get what he is saying, but Abreu was batting 3rd in Philly, I guess because of his speed, but hitting further down the order in NY is going to help his RBI numbers. Hitting .313 with RISP with 54 RBI's in 99 AB's sounds fairly "agressive" to me.

Verducci says he would rather have Sheffield than Abreu next year. Well, even on the Juice, Sheff will be

38 in November, and has a bad wrist. And we all know how fast he swings the bat thru the hitting zone. Perhaps too long ago to really compare, but the Cardinals traded for Bobby Bonds in 1980. He was 34, and had hit .285 with 25 homers in Cleveland the year before. Well, a pitch hit his wrist, broke it, and he when he came back he was never the same, hit .203 that year and was finished the next year. Perhaps that miracle balm will get him back in the game soon though.

Edited August 2, 2006 by BERIGAN

[Dave James]

Perhaps that miracle balm will get him back in the game soon though.

Who said anything about the balm?

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

And what the fuck is hit aggressively in run-scoring situations?

I thought we saw it the very first time he came up in a run-scoring situation (second and third, no outs): he was lucky he didn't get wrung up on the pitch, or the check swing. See? He isn't aggressive, he's perfectly happy with a walk, let someone else do the heavy lifting.

Now, in this case, it paid off when Bernie doubled but how often will that happen? Will New York fans pick up on it when an inning expires with Abreu at first after a walk, time after time? I know, "a walk is as good as a hit" and with their lineup it won't matter. Maybe not but then all you're paying for is the OBP.

Abreu is on the inevitable downside of his career. That's a given.

[Brad]

I don't Abreu think is such a hot deal for the Yanks. What does he have: all of 8 HRs. And he does walk a lot. For somebody who was counted on in Philly, that's pretty awful. To leave the RBI up to somebody else is not something to give Yankee fans confidence (as if I care).

Edited August 2, 2006 by Brad

[Dan Gould]

I don't Abreu think is such a hot deal for the Yanks. What does he have: all of 8 HRs. And he does walk a lot. For somebody who was counted on in Philly, that's pretty awful. To leave the RBI up to somebody else is not something to give Yankee fans confidence (as if I care).

I will say this: I'm glad the Sox didn't make the deal and replace Trot Nixon with Abreu. People love Trot because he sacrifices his body every day to make a play, and looks like it, too. Abreu in right field going lah-di-da would not endear him to the Fenway faithful.

[BERIGAN]

Why do I feel this need to defend Abreu, a player I have not paid a whole lot of attention to his whole career? Oh well, I still say he will do better than he did this year in Philly(Still was on pace for 100 Rbi's) for the Yanks. In his first full season, 1998(He played in 151 that year, and has never played in less since then, so he ain't a Mickey Rivers type either) He had 17 homers that year, then...20, 25, 31, 20, 20, 30, and 24 last year. So, he is not a classic home run hitter, but he drives in around 100 every year, and that was with a weaker lineup in front of him. I guess I feel like he is being picked on in the way Frank Thomas was for taking too many walks. I'd much rather have a guy with a high OBP, who drives in 100 every year, than a guy who tries to be a hero every time, and swings at balls 3 feet outside. Abreu already strikes out a fair bit, if he was more aggressive,he would have even more strike outs. Time will tell, he'll need at least August for him to really get comfortable in the AL, but I think since he is patient, he will see more good pitches than other NL players coming over.

Edited August 3, 2006 by BERIGAN

[Chalupa]

I've watched Bobby play for the past 9 years here. Defense....Yes, it's true that he has an aversion to running through outfield walls. Even more worrisome is that I can't remember him ever diving for a blooper. His arm isn't the greatest but you also have to remember that he is really a left fielder who was converted to right by the Phillies. The Gold Glove he won last year just goes to show how meaningless that award is. Dan is right about Abreu being on the downside of his career. He's only had 14 home runs since winning the All Star Home Run Derby last season. 14! Another thing to think about - he's still owed $21 million dollars through next season plus a $2 million buyout for 2008.

HOWEVER.... He's a smart player and what he lacks in heart defensively he can still make up for at the plate. I would have liked to have kept him in Philly but he's due $16 million next season. For that kind of money he needed to be putting up Pujols type numbers. Considering the lack of production he has demonstrated since the 2005 All-Star break I don't think he's worth it. Not even close. He's still a good player but his All Star days are behind him.

Are the Yankees a better team w/ Abreu? Of course. Was it a good trade for them? Absolutely. They gave up nothing and absorbing his huge contract won't be a problem. Will he be enough to put them into the post-season?? Time will tell.

I really think Cashman screwed up by not getting another legit starter. Maybe there wasn't another one available but Cory Lidle??? C'mon he was the 3rd best starter on the Phillies, a team that has the WORST starting pitching in the NL. How can a guy w/ a 4.74 ERA(and remember that's in the no DH league) be an upgrade? I can't wait to see Manny and Big Papi get a few at bats against him. And I bet they can't either

Edited August 3, 2006 by Chalupa

[Dan Gould]

Another walk-off at Fenway!!!!

[Dan Gould]

Did anyone see the rocket that Wily Mo Pena hit into (and out of) the Monster seats? I think it could have killed someone if they hadn't ducked out of the way. That boy is STRONG.

I gotta say that offensively he's a big improvement over Trot, just for the extra base hit and power threat. He won't get on base like Nixon did, but he's got the BA. So long as he doesn't have any terrible adventures in RF, I think he'll make it pretty easy to say, "so long, and thanks for all the dirt" to Trot.

[Quincy]

WOW! Maddux throws 6 innings of no-hit ball for the Dodgers at Cincinnati. Nothing like making a good 1st impression. Same goes for the Pennsylvania Yankee group tonight. Abreu 3 hits, Wilson 2 RBI, and a great game out of Lidle. I think the Wilson pickup has been overlooked, and I wonder if Torre will take a shine to him given their commonality of being catchers in the early part of their careers. Depending on whether Sheffield plays this year, it means Bubba and Phillips probably aren't on the playoff roster (that is IF the team gets there.) Much improved depth, that's for sure.

It's just early August, but the scoreboard watching is so electric right now. It's almost like football...only better of course.

[Dave James]

Yeah, a nice effort all around from the Yanks yesterday. On a super hot day when the Toronto starter can only go three, they get a solid six from their new guy. Definitely a step up from Shawn Chacon or Sidney Ponson. Abreu looks very sharp. He's hitting .385 since joining the Bombers and the fact that he doesn't have to be THE MAN, will be to his benefit. The Yanks are hitting on all cylinders right now, 8-2 in their last ten, good chemistry in the clubhouse, maybe the hottest pitcher in all of MLB in Wang. Just hope we can keep this up.

Word is the Sox will try to make a deal for Javy Lopez, but he still has to clear waivers. Wonder if anyone will claim him just to keep him out of Boston. Not that he's the catcher they need. He's only caught 21 games this year and he hasn't caught back to back games since who can remember when. But, he still has to be an upgrade over Mirabelli and Huckaby.

Sox fans have to be concerned about Beckett. He's a lot like Randy Johnson as in which Josh is going to show up on a given night? He can be absolutely dominating, but he can just as easily get lit up like he did last night.

On ESPN this morning, Dave Campbell says he thinks the Yanks, the Tigers and the Sox (White) are the three non-West Division playoff teams. You go, Soup.

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

According to the Globe, Lopez *has* cleared waivers. The O's will pay about half of his salary and get a player to be named. What's strange is that the Herald is saying that it will be a player not on the 40 man roster and the Globe is saying that it will be a player on the 40 man roster.

Anyway ... Lopez isn't an upgrade at the plate by any means, but he's an additional bat. He can spell Youklis at first, too. He's never been a good catcher so I am not sure if he becomes the regular catcher, with Mirabelli coming in late for defense, if they switch back and forth between Mirabelli and him, or possibly Mirabelli catches and Lopez is the right handed hitter off the bench.

Maybe we'll catch lightning in the bottle like the Yanks have. Looks like we need it, too.

Quick edit: what may be holding things up is that if its a 40 man roster player from the Sox, he has to clear waivers for the trade to be completed. But Lopez made it through.

Edited August 4, 2006 by Dan Gould

[Chalupa]

Cardinals fans have got to be worried. The Phillies swept a 3 game series in whcih the Cards never had a lead. They look totally pathetic right now.

[Noj]

Maybe the Cards got too comfortable when they were playing the Dodgers.

[Patrick]

Red Sox nation needs to send a lovely gift to Eric Wedge and to Fausto Carmona. Da Sawx shudda been swept at home by the lowly Tribe!

Doug Mirabelli is not the answer (except perhaps to the question who would finish last in a foot race between Hafner, Thome, and Mirabelli). And is David Wells done? That guy owns the Tribe, but he was baruttal the other night...