BERIGAN Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 Hopefully, it will "lose" strength like the last two did well before hitting land. It just seems these storms get so big so fast this year, that even with weakening, they have gotten so big, in a way it doesn't matter how bad the winds are. This storm has the smallest eye you will ever see! Get ready in Florida!!!! AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/190502.shtml Quote
Hardbopjazz Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 Time to get out while you can. Quote
Dan Gould Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 (edited) Time to get out while you can. ← Considering that at the moment, the Hurricane Center's strike probability for West Palm Beach - 2% - is the same as the probability of it hitting New Orleans I think its a tad early to start thinking in those terms just yet. Edited October 19, 2005 by Dan Gould Quote
7/4 Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 October 19, 2005 Hurricane Wilma Measured as Most Intense Atlantic Storm on Record By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Filed at 9:24 a.m. ET PUNTA GORDA, Fla. (AP) -- Forecasters who watched Hurricane Wilma explode into the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record said Wednesday it bring devastating winds to the state's East Coast as well as the southwestern coast where landfall is predicted. Meanwhile, officials ordered visitors out of the Florida Keys, the first U.S. evacuations caused by the Category 5 storm. Storm-weary Floridians kept an anxious eye on Hurricane Wilma as it grew Wednesday, with forecasters warning of a significant threat to the state by the weekend. The storm, which also menaced Cuba and Central America, had winds of 175 mph. The storm was expected to come ashore in southwestern Florida, threatening coastal areas like Punta Gorda that were hit by Charley, a Category 4 storm that was the first of seven hurricanes to strike or pass close to the state since August 2004. Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph. With winds more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was expected to move across Florida quickly, which means it wouldn't weaken much over land, Cobb said. That means it's possible Atlantic coast cities such as Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could be hit by winds nearly as strong as the west coast, Cobb said. Quote
BruceH Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph. With winds more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ← The the HELL...?!! I heard about this on the radio this morning; at first I thought they were talking about a different storm. Holy crap. But remember, folks, it has NOTHING TO DO with global warming! Quote
Johnny E Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 (edited) Early Tuesday, Wilma was only a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph. With winds more than 100 mph faster by the same time Wednesday, it had shown in the most rapid strengthening ever recorded in a hurricane, said Hugh Cobb, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. ← The the HELL...?!! I heard about this on the radio this morning; at first I thought they were talking about a different storm. Holy crap. But remember, folks, it has NOTHING TO DO with global warming! ← That's what Vibes says anyway...and he has graphs too! Besides, the President doesn't think Global Warming really exist anyway. I think we need more research into the matter. Edited October 19, 2005 by Johnny E Quote
RDK Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 Don't confuse the issue. There's solid evidence that the average temp is increasing; what's causing it is debatable. Quote
Johnny E Posted October 19, 2005 Report Posted October 19, 2005 Don't confuse the issue. There's solid evidence that the average temp is increasing; what's causing it is debatable. ← There is no debate that Global Warming is effected by man made pollutates...at least not among serious scientists anyway. Maybe in Washington they debate this, but then lobbists and campaign money will make politicians do the darndest things. Quote
BERIGAN Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Posted October 24, 2005 (edited) It's a 'new era' of hurricanes Experts: String of intense storms is part of normal cycle By Ann O'Neill CNN Friday, September 23, 2005; Posted: 1:16 p.m. EDT (17:16 GMT) • Special Report(CNN) -- Hurricanes aren't behaving like many of us are used to them behaving. They're bigger and meaner, and more numerous than many people have seen. Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne tore up parts of Florida last year. After tweaking Florida, Katrina and Rita are wreaking havoc this year along the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas. But don't rush to blame it on global warming, experts warn. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday that we're in a period of heightened hurricane activity that could last another decade or two.( See scientists collect data -- 1:33) "The increased activity since 1995 is due to natural fluctuations (and) cycles of hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it and not enhanced substantially by global warming," he testified. Mayfield's colleague at the National Hurricane Center, meteorologist Chris Landsea, said two recent studies about global warming and hurricanes raise more questions than they answer. He added that the impact of global warming is "minimal for the forseeable future." Landsea said the studies indicate global warming could increase hurricane wind speeds and rainfall by about 5 percent --100 years from now. But, he added, more study is needed, looking back at historical data and making it more compatible with modern reporting techniques. The debate over global warming Brenda Ekwurzel, climate scientist of the Union of Concerned Scientist National Climate Education Program, told CNN that while global warming might not be causing hurricanes, it already is making them more intense. "We would never point to a single weather event and blame global warming," she said. "While hurricanes have bedeviled the Gulf Coast region for years, global warming is making matters worse." Ekwurzel points to recent studies indicating that carbon dioxide is raising ocean temperatures. "And those warmer oceans are converting low-grade storms into powerful hurricanes," she said. "In short, the warm oceans are like fuel to a hurricane. It's like throwing gasoline on a fire." But not all hurricane experts are willing to make the link between global warming and hurricanes. At least not yet. They say the string of major storms that have struck the southeastern United States over the past two seasons signal a return to normal. Return to normal "From 1970 to 1995, there weren't that many hurricanes, and the ones we had were nice, well-mannered, housebroken hurricanes that stayed out to sea and didn't make a mess," said Hugh Willoughby, a hurricane researcher at Florida International University in Miami. "The only thing I can say," he added, "is this run of good luck we had is ending." "This year you can just say nature is averaging out its climatology," said Colorado State University's famed hurricane predictor, William Gray. (See video of the science of the storm --3:55) Katrina and Rita are what Gray calls "Bahama busters," storms that form off the Bahamas rather than near the coast of Africa. They explode after feeding on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The past century saw 18 "Bahama busters," Gray said. Even Katrina's and Rita's back-to-back pounding of the Gulf Coast has a precedent. In 1915, Gray said, New Orleans and Houston areas were hit by Category 4 storms six weeks apart. "You can't blame that on global warming," he observed. Gray first sounded the alarm in 1995, noting that the surface waters in the north Atlantic Ocean had warmed slightly. 1995 saw 11 hurricanes and eight tropical storms, the highest tally since 1933. By 1997, Gray's annual forecasts warned of "a new era" of hurricanes. He put forth the theory that many climatologists, including Mayfield and Willoughby, now embrace -- that hurricanes are driven by cycles of rising water temperature and salinity that affect the speed of currents in the Atlantic. Warm currents drive hurricanes The technical name for the engine driving the hurricane cycles is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO for short. It can cause droughts in the West and hatch hurricanes in the East. "This cycle has been repeating back to the Ice Age," Willoughby said. "It's related to changes in the ocean currents that move heat northward. If it's fast, we get a lot of hurricanes." Studies show the AMO was cool -- and the currents slower -- from 1900 to 1925, warm from 1926 to 1969, cool from 1970 to 1994 and warm since 1995. And so, to a generation of Americans with little experience with hurricanes, it seems like these monsters are coming out of nowhere. Gray and Willoughby are among the skeptics who doubt global warming can be blamed for the trend of the past few years. They are joined by the hurricane trackers at the National Hurricane Center. "We're just entering a busy time here," said Chris Lauer, a meteorologist at the center. "You see a few decades of slower activity, followed by a few decades of higher oscillation," he said. "Our position is the recent increase in hurricane activity is not caused by global warming." Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia, suggested earlier this month that more than nature and coincidence might be driving the storms. More study needed In the September's issue of the journal Science, Peter Webster and Judith Curry documented a 60 percent global jump in major hurricanes with winds of 131 mph or more and a 1-degree increase in the tropical ocean surface temperature. But Webster warned on Georgia Tech's Web site that more study was needed before blaming global warming. "We need a longer data record of hurricane statistics," he said, "and we need to understand more about the role hurricanes play in regulating the heat balance and circulation in the atmosphere and oceans." Willoughby said he is keeping an open mind about the role of global warming but believes it won't be a factor for at least another 100 years. "The answer I give everybody, because it has all been so politicized, is I don't know," he said. Gray was more direct. "There are all these medicine men out there who want to capitalize on general ignorance on this subject," he said. "With all the problems in the world, we shouldn't be dealing with this." Willoughby believes the debate over hurricanes and global warming is healthy. "It's good for the science," he said. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/23/hurricane.cycle/ Edited October 24, 2005 by BERIGAN Quote
BERIGAN Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Posted October 24, 2005 Remember this storm? It's winds dropped to about 100 MPH after after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, but it has gained a little strength and winds are 115, just hitting catagory 3. Hopefully, it won't get any stronger! They say it will still be quite strong when it comes out near Miami.... Quote
BERIGAN Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Posted October 24, 2005 Jesus! Anyone watching the footage??? Someday a reporter is going to be killed! I mean, the footage is great, but I really don't want to see someone decapitated. CNN shows a cameraman and reporter on their knees to keep from getting blown away, and the fox guy is barefoot, and keeps getting blown back. I know, they get paid to do this, but I doubt they expected it to be this bad with "only" 120 MPH winds... Quote
BERIGAN Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Posted October 24, 2005 Time to get out while you can. ← Considering that at the moment, the Hurricane Center's strike probability for West Palm Beach - 2% - is the same as the probability of it hitting New Orleans I think its a tad early to start thinking in those terms just yet. ← Well, who'd a thunk it...5 days later, 2% to about 100% today...don't see many Hurricanes hit West Palm Beach from the Gulf side. We may not hear from Dan for a few days.... Quote
patricia Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 (edited) I'm watching the footage now and they're talking about 200 MPH winds. Holy Man!! NOW they're saying only 120 MPH. Either way, the situation is pretty grave. Edited October 24, 2005 by patricia Quote
DTMX Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 (edited) I mean, the footage is great, but I really don't want to see someone decapitated. ← I do (reporter, not a civilian) - but then, I'm a terrible person. When I was watching the Katrina coverage at the office I told someone, "I'm not leaving until this reporter gets smacked in the face with something." A few minutes later, he got a plastic bag or something wrapped around his face. We all laughed and laughed... A week later our company closed its doors and we were all out of work. Karma. Edited October 24, 2005 by DTMX Quote
DTMX Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 For your dining and dancing pleasure - Geraldo sings Rock You Like A Hurricane... Quote
BERIGAN Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Posted October 24, 2005 I mean, the footage is great, but I really don't want to see someone decapitated. ← I do (reporter, not a civilian) - but then, I'm a terrible person. When I was watching the Katrina coverage at the office I told someone, "I'm not leaving until this reporter gets smacked in the face with something." A few minutes later, he got a plastic bag or something wrapped around his face. We all laughed and laughed... A week later our company closed its doors and we were all out of work. Karma. ← I didn't know if I should laugh or cry at your post, so I did both...I hope you are happy! Quote
DTMX Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 I mean, the footage is great, but I really don't want to see someone decapitated. ← I do (reporter, not a civilian) - but then, I'm a terrible person. When I was watching the Katrina coverage at the office I told someone, "I'm not leaving until this reporter gets smacked in the face with something." A few minutes later, he got a plastic bag or something wrapped around his face. We all laughed and laughed... A week later our company closed its doors and we were all out of work. Karma. ← I didn't know if I should laugh or cry at your post, so I did both...I hope you are happy! ← I try to look on the bright side - I get to sleep late every day, and I can no longer tell the difference between a weekday or the weekend. Hey Berigan - watch for me on television during FOX 5's Thanksgiving broadcast from Hosea's soup kitchen. I'll be the guy going back for seconds. Maybe thirds to tide me over on the ride home. Quote
7/4 Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 I try to look on the bright side - I get to sleep late every day, and I can no longer tell the difference between a weekday or the weekend. Sorta like running yer own business. It can be like that. Quote
DTMX Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 I try to look on the bright side - I get to sleep late every day, and I can no longer tell the difference between a weekday or the weekend. Sorta like running yer own business. It can be like that. ← I like to tell my family that my job is finding a job. But I also like to tell myself that a few more minutes/hours in the sack won't hurt me. There's got to be a happy medium in there somewhere. Regarding hurricanes - earlier this year, three friends of mine were hired by the Feds to visit the areas damaged during the 2004 hurricane season, assess damages and whatnot, and write reports - and they got paid handsomely for their work. The way 2005's season has gone, there should to be plenty of work to go around after the start of the new year. Maybe I'll look into that - unless a FEMA restructuring changes the program. In the meantime - here's a screen cap (courtesy of Fark) of a reporter getting hit with a piece of cardboard during Hurricane Rita. And it was dark when this happened so he probably never saw it coming - he's lucky it wasn't a road sign or corrugated tin or else there would have been a different top story for the day. Quote
rostasi Posted October 24, 2005 Report Posted October 24, 2005 ...and the fox guy is barefoot, and keeps getting blown back. The closest Fox will get to covering Blowback... Quote
Bright Moments Posted October 27, 2005 Report Posted October 27, 2005 (edited) hi y'all. we just got power back! wilma smashed us pretty good. fortunately our house survived with with what seems to be minor damage. our awning was blown away, our pool fence destroyed, a side door blown off and a lot of trees damaged. many people were less fortunate and over 750,000 people in dade county still do not have power. might be up to 4 weeks for some to get it! we were pretty well stocked with food, ice and water. i have not ventured out too far to conserve gas. for the few stations that have a generator and are pumping gas, gas lines are 20 blocks long!!! by the time you get to the front think how much gas you have used in line! anyway i missed you all and i hope my fellow so. floridians (dan, marty etc.) are ok! Edited October 27, 2005 by Bright Moments Quote
Jim Alfredson Posted October 27, 2005 Report Posted October 27, 2005 Glad to hear you and the family are all right, Bright Moments! Quote
ASNL77 Posted October 27, 2005 Report Posted October 27, 2005 (edited) hi y'all. we just got power back! wilma smashed us pretty good. fortunately our house survived with with what seems to be minor damage. our awning was blown away, our pool fence destroyed, a side door blown off and a lot of trees damaged. many people were less fortunate and over 750,000 people in dade county still do not have power. might be up to 4 weeks for some to get it! we were pretty well stocked with food, ice and water. i have not ventured out too far to conserve gas. for the few stations that have a generator and are pumping gas, gas lines are 20 blocks long!!! by the time you get to the front think how much gas you have used in line! anyway i missed you all and i hope my fellow so. floridians (dan, marty etc.) are ok! ← Good to see you back and to know you and your beloved ones are fine. I have never experienced any natural disaster but I am sure it changes the way you look at life and the way you interact with other people. Good luck with the repairs! Edited October 27, 2005 by ASNL77 Quote
ASNL77 Posted October 27, 2005 Report Posted October 27, 2005 (edited) Jesus! Anyone watching the footage??? Someday a reporter is going to be killed! I mean, the footage is great, but I really don't want to see someone decapitated. CNN shows a cameraman and reporter on their knees to keep from getting blown away, and the fox guy is barefoot, and keeps getting blown back. I know, they get paid to do this, but I doubt they expected it to be this bad with "only" 120 MPH winds... ← It shows how important pictures have become in our society! I honestly don't need to see a guy on his knees to understantd how serious and worrying the situation is. We had the same pictures in Britain of reporters trying to stand in awful conditions and struggling to stay on their feet! WTF is this all about? Do we really need to see these pictures to feel for Florida, New Orleans etc... Do we need to see people crying to feel for and HELP people who suffered from the earthquake in Pakistan, the tsunamis etc... Edited October 28, 2005 by ASNL77 Quote
Bright Moments Posted October 28, 2005 Report Posted October 28, 2005 thanks for the kind words. ventured out and got gas. only a 1hr and 15 minute wait!!! things ARE looking up!! Quote
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