Bringing back a deadly flu virus

[Christiern]

OP-ED CONTRIBUTORS

October 17, 2005

Recipe for Destruction

By RAY KURZWEIL and BILL JOY

AFTER a decade of painstaking research, federal and university scientists have reconstructed the 1918 influenza virus that killed 50 million people worldwide. Like the flu viruses now raising alarm bells in Asia, the 1918 virus was a bird flu that jumped directly to humans, the scientists reported. To shed light on how the virus evolved, the United States Department of Health and Human Services published the full genome of the 1918 influenza virus on the Internet in the GenBank database.

This is extremely foolish. The genome is essentially the design of a weapon of mass destruction. No responsible scientist would advocate publishing precise designs for an atomic bomb, and in two ways revealing the sequence for the flu virus is even more dangerous.

First, it would be easier to create and release this highly destructive virus from the genetic data than it would be to build and detonate an atomic bomb given only its design, as you don't need rare raw materials like plutonium or enriched uranium. Synthesizing the virus from scratch would be difficult, but far from impossible. An easier approach would be to modify a conventional flu virus with the eight unique and now published genes of the 1918 killer virus.

Second, release of the virus would be far worse than an atomic bomb. Analyses have shown that the detonation of an atomic bomb in an American city could kill as many as one million people. Release of a highly communicable and deadly biological virus could kill tens of millions, with some estimates in the hundreds of millions.

A Science staff writer, Jocelyn Kaiser, said, "Both the authors and Science's editors acknowledge concerns that terrorists could, in theory, use the information to reconstruct the 1918 flu virus." And yet the journal required that the full genome sequence be made available on the GenBank database as a condition for publishing the paper.

Proponents of publishing this data point out that valuable insights have been gained from the virus's recreation. These insights could help scientists across the world detect and defend against future pandemics, including avian flu.

There are other approaches, however, to sharing the scientifically useful information. Specific insights - for example, that a key mutation noted in one gene may in part explain the virus's unusual virulence - could be published without disclosing the complete genetic recipe. The precise genome could potentially be shared with scientists with suitable security assurances.

We urgently need international agreements by scientific organizations to limit such publications and an international dialogue on the best approach to preventing recipes for weapons of mass destruction from falling into the wrong hands. Part of that discussion should concern the appropriate role of governments, scientists and their scientific societies, and industry.

We also need a new Manhattan Project to develop specific defenses against new biological viral threats, natural or human made. There are promising new technologies, like RNA interference, that could be harnessed. We need to put more stones on the defensive side of the scale.

We realize that calling for this genome to be "un-published" is a bit like trying to gather the horses back into the barn. Perhaps we will be lucky this time, and we will indeed succeed in developing defenses for these killer flu viruses before they are needed. We should, however, treat the genetic sequences of pathological biological viruses with no less care than designs for nuclear weapons.

Ray Kurzweil, an inventor, is the author of "The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology." Bill Joy, founder and former chief scientist of Sun Microsystems, is a partner at a venture-capital firm.

[Harold_Z]

I think I'll have a drink.

[GA Russell]

I listened to a radio adaptation of the story Earth Abides not long ago, in which a mysterious illness wiped out almost everyone in the world, and the few survivors had to re-start the human race and civilization.

I more recently read a book called Lucifer's Hammer about worldwide death and destruction when a comet hits the earth.

I'm not one of those "the end is near" types, but it really does seem increasingly prudent to prepare for the worst when you see people doing stupid things like this.

I think there are lessons to be learned from New Orleans as well, such as the need to have drinkable water.

My concern is not so much what a government would do. I figure no matter how evil the govt, the rulers would have to have some smarts to get to where they got. But I can imagine that a "movement" might take the suicide bomber mentality one step further and risk self-annihilation with biological warfare in order to rid the world of The Great Satan.

Those of us who are religious will see this as another reason to get right with God.

[Harold_Z]

I listened to a radio adaptation of the story Earth Abides not long ago, in which a mysterious illness wiped out almost everyone in the world, and the few survivors had to re-start the human race and civilization.

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I read Earth Abides way back. Great book.

ISH and the hammer.

[Chuck Nessa]

Reissues are "all the rage" here.

[wesbed]

I think I'll have a drink.

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I'm in.

[Stefan Wood]

It's not like the kids are going out to the hardware store and buying the ingredients like the bomb that exploded in Oaklahoma City.

[J Larsen]

It wouldn't be particularly wise to release a virus that spreads uncontrollably, has no cure (being a virus), and is resistant to vaccine. That's very likely to come back and bite you in the ass. I'm not guaranteeing that no one would ever do something this stupid, but it has to be a far less attractive means of attacking an enemy than detonating a bomb (nuclear or otherwise) or contaminating local warter supplies, just for example.

[mgraham333]

ahhhhhh... ahhhhhhhh...... ahhhhhCHoooooooooooooooo

[BruceH]

I listened to a radio adaptation of the story Earth Abides not long ago, in which a mysterious illness wiped out almost everyone in the world, and the few survivors had to re-start the human race and civilization.

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I read Earth Abides way back. Great book.

ISH and the hammer.

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Yes.

Even though it was written in the 1940's, the last time I read Earth Abides, about 10 years ago, I thought it had dated very little.

[7/4]

I think I'll have a drink.

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I'm in.

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I'm there too.