storm comin'!!!

[.:.impossible]

190mph gusts!

[Dan Gould]

190mph gusts!

←

NBC just said 212 gusts!!!!

[Dan Gould]

And central pressure of 907 MB.

According to the National Hurricane Center,

Andrew was 922.

Camille was 909.

The only lower central pressure was the Labor Day storm of 1935, at 892.

[BERIGAN]

I've Been flipping between CNN, FOX and the Weather channel.(Except for Fox, I am sure many are doing the same here! )

Shepard Smith of Fox is from Louisiana, and seems just dumbfounded at the stupidity of folks staying in town. They keep saying things like New Orleans can handle a Category 3, and he'll says yeah, but it is a 5, and they say, well the media overflows these stories, it'll weaken. Or they say they live in a safe place, and he says what place is safe in 175+ MPH winds and 20 foot storm surge. Well, they don't say much then, but they think the storm will weaken, and plus, look how old all the buildings are here!

Read that a lot of tourists are stuck in N.O. since their flights were cancelled, and can't get a flight. They are the ones I really feel sorry for,(and of course those who don't have cars) those future Darwin award winners wanting to show how damn macho they are, they are really in for the shock of their lives.

There is going to be terrible destruction 100's of miles inland from this storm, which the media does seem to overlook for the most part....the kind of devastation that will occur....

Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans

WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIXURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINAA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. ATLEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.

CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...

AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...

BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE..

.ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTUREOUTSIDE!LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

[Soul Stream]

We're so used to the medias overhype of hurricanes that it has made us complacent of REAL danger. This storm isn't a joke or a media event. It will wipe New Orleans out if it hits at that strength. And the potential for it weakening seems very low at this point.

This is going to be a devestating event. I love New Orleans and can't imagine what's going to happen there.

[Shawn]

I have many relatives in the Biloxi area (Mother, Sister, Aunt, etc), so this hurricane has me absolutely terrified for their safety. I had been trying to watch the Weather Channel coverage but it's just making me feel worse.

If you're the praying type...say one for them please.

[ghost of miles]

AP says a million could be homeless:

Hurricane Could Leave 1 Million Homeless By MATT CRENSON, AP National Writer

45 minutes ago

When Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans on Monday, it could turn one of America's most charming cities into a vast cesspool tainted with toxic chemicals, human waste and even coffins released by floodwaters from the city's legendary cemeteries.

Experts have warned for years that the levees and pumps that usually keep New Orleans dry have no chance against a direct hit by a Category 5 storm.

That's exactly what Katrina was as it churned toward the city. With top winds of 165 mph and the power to lift sea level by as much as 28 feet above normal, the storm threatened an environmental disaster of biblical proportions, one that could leave more than 1 million people homeless.

"All indications are that this is absolutely worst-case scenario," Ivor van Heerden, deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, said Sunday afternoon.

The center's latest computer simulations indicate that by Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet deep. In the French Quarter, the water could reach 20 feet, easily submerging the district's iconic cast-iron balconies and bars.

Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless.

"We're talking about in essence having — in the continental United States — having a refugee camp of a million people," van Heerden said.

Aside from Hurricane Andrew, which struck Miami in 1992, forecasters have no experience with Category 5 hurricanes hitting densely populated areas.

"Hurricanes rarely sustain such extreme winds for much time. However we see no obvious large-scale effects to cause a substantial weakening the system and it is expected that the hurricane will be of Category 4 or 5 intensity when it reaches the coast,"    National Hurricane Center meteorologist Richard Pasch said.

As they raced to put meteorological instruments in Katrina's path Sunday, wind engineers had little idea what their equipment would record.

"We haven't seen something this big since we started the program," said Kurt Gurley, a University of Florida engineering professor. He works for the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program, which is in its seventh year of making detailed measurements of hurricane wind conditions using a set of mobile weather stations.

Experts have warned about New Orleans' vulnerability for years, chiefly because Louisiana has lost more than a million acres of coastal wetlands in the past seven decades. The vast patchwork of swamps and bayous south of the city serves as a buffer, partially absorbing the surge of water that a hurricane pushes ashore.

Experts have also warned that the ring of high levees around New Orleans, designed to protect the city from floodwaters coming down the Mississippi, will only make things worse in a powerful hurricane. Katrina is expected to push a 28-foot storm surge against the levees. Even if they hold, water will pour over their tops and begin filling the city as if it were a sinking canoe.

After the storm passes, the water will have nowhere to go.

In a few days, van Heerden predicts, emergency management officials are going to be wondering how to handle a giant stagnant pond contaminated with building debris, coffins, sewage and other hazardous materials.

"We're talking about an incredible environmental disaster," van Heerden said.

He puts much of the blame for New Orleans' dire situation on the very levee system that is designed to protect southern Louisiana from Mississippi River floods.

Before the levees were built, the river would top its banks during floods and wash through a maze of bayous and swamps, dropping fine-grained silt that nourished plants and kept the land just above sea level.

The levees "have literally starved our wetlands to death" by directing all of that precious silt out into the Gulf of Mexico, van Heerden said.

It has been 40 years since New Orleans faced a hurricane even comparable to Katrina. In 1965, Hurricane Betsy, a Category 3 storm, submerged some parts of the city to a depth of seven feet.

Since then, the Big Easy has had nothing but near misses. In 1998, Hurricane Georges headed straight for New Orleans, then swerved at the last minute to strike Mississippi and Alabama. Hurricane Lili blew herself out at the mouth of the Mississippi in 2002. And last year's Hurricane Ivan obligingly curved to the east as it came ashore, barely grazing a grateful city.

It sounds as if New Orleans could be--to put it bluntly--destroyed.

[catesta]

I have many relatives in the Biloxi area (Mother, Sister, Aunt, etc), so this hurricane has me absolutely terrified for their safety.  I had been trying to watch the Weather Channel coverage but it's just making me feel worse.

If you're the praying type...say one for them please.

←

I'm usually not the praying type, but I'm sayin' a few.

[ghost of miles]

CNN reports that HK has weakened a bit, but that's not saying much, given its strength--and the tendency of hurricanes to fluctuate in intensity. Gotta hope that it does weaken considerably, though.

[Soul Stream]

From my understanding, there's no stopping the storm surge at this point (even if given a considerable weakening) to topple the levee. NO will be a swimming pool, no matter what the wind speeds are. That's where the devestation will be, the massive flooding once it breaks the levee. That levee is history.

[BERIGAN]

Well, I am betting New Orleans might dodge the bullet, at least a shot thru the heart. The storm has winds at 5:30 E.S.T. are around 150, and it looks like the "perfect" storm is not perfectly shaped, the eastern side looks much weaker, and that the eye will be just a bit further east....where it does hit though....

[Soul Stream]

Now they're saying the storm surge is going to be 10-12 feet. A big difference from the 28 feet they were saying before I went to bed. Another case of the media massively overstating things.

Edited August 29, 2005 by Soul Stream

[BERIGAN]

Well, the media is reporting what the weather "experts" tell them.(To be fair they did track the storm just about perfectly) CNN is reporting a lot of damage in N.O. right now..ABC says the Superdome is leaking A LOT of water thru the roof, so this is still going to be a storm not soon forgotten....

Edited August 29, 2005 by BERIGAN

[Randy Twizzle]

Now they're saying the storm surge is going to be 10-12 feet.  A big difference from the 28 feet they were saying before I went to bed.  Another case of the media massively overstating things.

←

Here's the National Weather Service bulletin from yesterday. How was the media suppose to report this without being accused of overstating things?

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT

LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL

FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY

DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.

PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD

FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE

BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME

WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A

FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH

AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY

VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE

ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN

AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY

THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW

CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE

KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR

HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[Dan Gould]

This is ridiculous.

The New Orleans office issued their warnings based on a DIRECT HIT on New Orleans. Fortunately, that didn't happen (barely).

Ever hear of "To err on the side of caution"?

[Soul Stream]

I'm not saying it's not a supremely dangerous situation and evacuation was a must for NO. However, you could hear in the media's voices that they wanted this thing to be a cat 5 with 165 mph winds and a 28 foot storm surge. To warn that those were possibilities is one thing, to proclaim it as fact as they were is typical media hype.

And another thing. Do we really need to see these reporters out in the 40-60 mph winds screaming into a microphone? I video shot outside the window shows us how windy it is.

[Dan Gould]

Now they're saying the storm surge is going to be 10-12 feet.  A big difference from the 28 feet they were saying before I went to bed.  Another case of the media massively overstating things.

←

Not only is this unfair, but its not accurate either.

The Weather channel is reporting, in an article with a timeline just after 10 AM,

A storm surge of 16 to 22 feet is possible along and to the east of the center of the hurricane as it makes landfall.

And

A levee in New Orleans has been breached sending 3 to 8 feet of water into the 9th Ward area of the city.

And as Berigan points out, storm tracking was quite accurate. As I mentioned yesterday at 9 AM,

Hurricane Center "Strike Probability" chart shows New Orleans as the number one most likely point of landfall, together with some other LA town, Buras.

And the lede of the Weather Channel's current Tropical report:

Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, Louisiana at 6:10 am CDT with top winds of 140 mph.

[Soul Stream]

Alright Dan, but what about the guys standing out in the wind shouting into their microphones.

[Dan Gould]

I'm not saying it's not a supremely dangerous situation and evacuation was a must for NO.  However, you could hear in the media's voices that they wanted this thing to be a cat 5 with 165 mph winds and a 28 foot storm surge.  To warn that those were possibilities is one thing, to proclaim it as fact as they were is typical media hype. 

←

I tend to agree with you that the media wants a major disaster. There's lots of reporting to do when that happens. I was really objecting to the suggestion that it was the "experts" who are to blame for overhyping things. They did and continue to do, the best they can with the information they get, and the reality is that as horrible as the destruction will still be, we should thank our lucky stars (and Mother Nature) for keeping the eyewall to the east, and the weakening of the storm that did occur.

[Dan Gould]

Alright Dan, but what about the guys standing out in the wind shouting into their microphones.

←

Blame the Weather Channel my friend!

BTW, that Jim Cantore dude has got some cojones and even he kept his ass out of NO!

[Dan Gould]

BTW, for those of you who can access, the Times has some pretty impressive pictures in a slide show pop up on the home page.

[Randy Twizzle]

I wasn't suggesting that the experts are overhyping things. I was saying that if the experts are saying this thing will be catastrophic and issuing dire reports then the media is merely doing it's job by reporting what the experts are saying.

[Soul Stream]

Alright Dan, but what about the guys standing out in the wind shouting into their microphones.

←

Blame the Weather Channel my friend!

BTW, that Jim Cantore dude has got some cojones and even he kept his ass out of NO!

←

Now, we can only hope Anderson Cooper gets blown away.

[Dan Gould]

Alright Dan, but what about the guys standing out in the wind shouting into their microphones.

←

Blame the Weather Channel my friend!

BTW, that Jim Cantore dude has got some cojones and even he kept his ass out of NO!

←

Now, we can only hope Anderson Cooper gets blown away.

←

Can we get a package deal and have Shepherd Smith of Fox News get the Dorothy treatment?

[Big Wheel]

Alright Dan, but what about the guys standing out in the wind shouting into their microphones.

←

Blame the Weather Channel my friend!

BTW, that Jim Cantore dude has got some cojones and even he kept his ass out of NO!

←

Now, we can only hope Anderson Cooper gets blown away.

←

Can we get a package deal and have Shepherd Smith of Fox News get the Dorothy treatment?

←

Speaking of Smith, here's some actual Fox News Video in which he gets his just deserts on live TV.