WORLD CUP 2006 / GERMANY

[brownie]

Italy will win the World Cup, according to the Union des Banques Suisses analysts.

Wanna bet??

Who Will Win the World Cup 2006? UBS Analysts Predict the World Champion

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 26, 2006--The analysts at UBS Wealth Management Research have caught World Cup fever, and have made some interesting predictions about how this year's soccer World Cup will pan out.

Based on a simulation, the analysts have determined that Italy will win. The simulation was carried out using scientific methods comparable to those used by experts to make economic and financial-market forecasts. The model developed by analysts was then tested for reliability by applying it to past football World Cup and European tournaments, with remarkably precise results: the simulation correctly predicted 89 percent of all of the semi-final winners of the previous nine World Cups.

The simulation

According to the UBS simulation, further results will be as follows: Germany will lose to Argentina in the 3rd round and Italy will beat France at the same stage. They will be closely followed by the Netherlands, who will send England home. In the fourth pairing, the Brazilians will dominate the Spaniards. The semi-finals will then be down to the favorites: the Netherlands will draw the short straw against the Brazilians, the Italians will beat Argentina. In the final, the Brazilians will be forced to accept the fact that the Italians are the better team in this tournament.

Many influencing factors

Along with "football fever", the team around UBS Wealth Management Chief Economist Klaus Wellershoff was interested to find out what variables are important in predicting World Cup success. In doing so, they discovered that many things that appear to be obvious are, in fact, not crucial to winning the World Cup. An example of this would be the size of a country's population, which is often incorrectly correlated to the amount of potential athletic talent. The FIFA rankings, which list the top national soccer teams, also prove to be of limited use when it comes to making a prediction: the FIFA list compiles the sporting success of the individual teams but assigns equal value to all wins, no matter how strong the opponent.

Reality wins

The creation of the World Cup prediction was an intellectual change of pace for the UBS analysts, but it also delivered additional insights. The exercise, for example, gave the experts the opportunity to demonstrate the flexibility of their methods outside their typical parameters.

Of course, there are also limits. According to the model, Greece would never have become European champion in 2004. Sports do still follow their own rules - and are more attractive than any simulation.

I like the final paragraph from the ever-cautious Swiss...

[porcy62]

Italy will win the World Cup, according to the Union des Banques Suisses analysts.

Wanna bet??

Who Will Win the World Cup 2006? UBS Analysts Predict the World Champion

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 26, 2006--The analysts at UBS Wealth Management Research have caught World Cup fever, and have made some interesting predictions about how this year's soccer World Cup will pan out.

Based on a simulation, the analysts have determined that Italy will win. The simulation was carried out using scientific methods comparable to those used by experts to make economic and financial-market forecasts. The model developed by analysts was then tested for reliability by applying it to past football World Cup and European tournaments, with remarkably precise results: the simulation correctly predicted 89 percent of all of the semi-final winners of the previous nine World Cups.

The simulation

According to the UBS simulation, further results will be as follows: Germany will lose to Argentina in the 3rd round and Italy will beat France at the same stage. They will be closely followed by the Netherlands, who will send England home. In the fourth pairing, the Brazilians will dominate the Spaniards. The semi-finals will then be down to the favorites: the Netherlands will draw the short straw against the Brazilians, the Italians will beat Argentina. In the final, the Brazilians will be forced to accept the fact that the Italians are the better team in this tournament.

Many influencing factors

Along with "football fever", the team around UBS Wealth Management Chief Economist Klaus Wellershoff was interested to find out what variables are important in predicting World Cup success. In doing so, they discovered that many things that appear to be obvious are, in fact, not crucial to winning the World Cup. An example of this would be the size of a country's population, which is often incorrectly correlated to the amount of potential athletic talent. The FIFA rankings, which list the top national soccer teams, also prove to be of limited use when it comes to making a prediction: the FIFA list compiles the sporting success of the individual teams but assigns equal value to all wins, no matter how strong the opponent.

Reality wins

The creation of the World Cup prediction was an intellectual change of pace for the UBS analysts, but it also delivered additional insights. The exercise, for example, gave the experts the opportunity to demonstrate the flexibility of their methods outside their typical parameters.

Of course, there are also limits. According to the model, Greece would never have become European champion in 2004. Sports do still follow their own rules - and are more attractive than any simulation.

I like the final paragraph from the ever-cautious Swiss...

According the final paragraph, and considering the forecast polls before the italian election, I'll bet Ghana.

[brownie]

According the final paragraph, and considering the forecast polls before the italian election, I'll bet Ghana.

'According to the UBS simulation, further results will be as follows: Germany will lose to Argentina in the 3rd round and Italy will beat France at the same stage.'

The news that Italy is going to take revenge for the France-Italy match of the 1998 World Cup is ruining my day

Hope Ghana beats Italy in the final

[Jim R]

No disrespect to Italy, but "UBS" is a fitting acronym.

[kenny weir]

It's just about all good news on the Australian front: Many of the key players have been in outstanding form, with injury worries largely managable, except for Tim Cahill. I suspect they'll name him in the knowledge that he's not up to it they're allowed to replace him.

Meanwhile, Mark Viduka and Harry Kewell have been running hot for Boro and Liverpool respectively, and are largely responsible for getting their sides into major league trophy final playoffs - UEFA Cup and FA Cup.

Bring it on! (Before our guys peak too early ... )

[Jim R]

I've been slowly pondering the recent announcement of the U.S. roster...

For the most part, it was pretty clear who was going to make the team, but there were a few surprises (and from what I've read, I'm not the only one who is surprised). I don't want to criticize Bruce Arena too much, because he and his staff obviously know what they're doing... but just for the sake of discussion:

Josh Wolff makes the squad while Taylor Twellman does not... although the experience factor is an obvious advantage for Wolff, I'm surprised and disappointed by this particular choice. Wolff may have certain skills that Twellman lacks, but what we're desperate for are people who can score goals. In my opinion, Twellman has far more ability to put the ball in the net. Period. Wolff is more of an assist man, and I think he already have enough of that coming from the midfield players and overlapping defenders. I'm very pleased to see Brian Ching make the team, although I didn't exactly expect it. I think his passing ability (and vision, which goes hand-in-hand with that) is superior to most of our other forwards, and if he gets a chance to play, it might pay off for us to have he and Donovan working their former magic together again. I expected McBride (obviously) and Johnson to make the roster. Along with Twellman and Chris Rolfe (who looks pretty good but is still a bit "green"), our other alternate is Connor Casey... which I do not understand at all.

In the midfield, things were fairly clear-cut... the only surprise for me was Ben Olsen. I think he only made the team due to Steve Ralston's injury situation, which is unfortunate. I have to say, though, that Olsen performed very well when he got his chances to play this year. Armas and Noonan are good to have on the alternates list, and I hope they would be chosen before Chris Klein, if it becomes necessary to choose one.

Things were a bit less obvious in terms of which defenders would make the team. I'm very satisfied with the selections (not a big fan of Berhalter, and the other alternate- Todd Dunivant- is promising but still relatively inexperienced). Too bad for Frankie Hejduk that he got hurt... would have been good to have him on the squad again. I'm not sure Chris Albright can replace him, but Albright may not even get to play. We have a good pool to choose from. I think Corey Gibbs' inclusion was a good move.

Goalkeepers... basically a no-brainer. Kind of strange to have a starter who was on the roster for 1990 (! wow he's old ) 1998, and 2002 and finally getting the nod.

[P.L.M]

Italy will win the World Cup, according to the Union des Banques Suisses analysts.

Wanna bet??

Bank anlysts playing the scientific shamans about football soccer. And swiss by the way. Dear God.

They fell to tell us at wich stage the Swiss team will be rip off the field, by the way. Don't want to make their "bnationals" customers angry, maybe.

[scottb]

I've been slowly pondering the recent announcement of the U.S. roster...

For the most part, it was pretty clear who was going to make the team, but there were a few surprises (and from what I've read, I'm not the only one who is surprised). I don't want to criticize Bruce Arena too much, because he and his staff obviously know what they're doing... but just for the sake of discussion:

Josh Wolff makes the squad while Taylor Twellman does not... although the experience factor is an obvious advantage for Wolff, I'm surprised and disappointed by this particular choice. Wolff may have certain skills that Twellman lacks, but what we're desperate for are people who can score goals. In my opinion, Twellman has far more ability to put the ball in the net. Period. Wolff is more of an assist man, and I think he already have enough of that coming from the midfield players and overlapping defenders. I'm very pleased to see Brian Ching make the team, although I didn't exactly expect it. I think his passing ability (and vision, which goes hand-in-hand with that) is superior to most of our other forwards, and if he gets a chance to play, it might pay off for us to have he and Donovan working their former magic together again. I expected McBride (obviously) and Johnson to make the roster. Along with Twellman and Chris Rolfe (who looks pretty good but is still a bit "green"), our other alternate is Connor Casey... which I do not understand at all.

In the midfield, things were fairly clear-cut... the only surprise for me was Ben Olsen. I think he only made the team due to Steve Ralston's injury situation, which is unfortunate. I have to say, though, that Olsen performed very well when he got his chances to play this year. Armas and Noonan are good to have on the alternates list, and I hope they would be chosen before Chris Klein, if it becomes necessary to choose one.

Things were a bit less obvious in terms of which defenders would make the team. I'm very satisfied with the selections (not a big fan of Berhalter, and the other alternate- Todd Dunivant- is promising but still relatively inexperienced). Too bad for Frankie Hejduk that he got hurt... would have been good to have him on the squad again. I'm not sure Chris Albright can replace him, but Albright may not even get to play. We have a good pool to choose from. I think Corey Gibbs' inclusion was a good move.

Goalkeepers... basically a no-brainer. Kind of strange to have a starter who was on the roster for 1990 (! wow he's old ) 1998, and 2002 and finally getting the nod.

I agree with you. I've tried to rationalize the decision about the forwards and this is what I've come up with.

Ching was picked as a replacement for McBride. If McBride goes down, really Ching is his best replacement. He's a bigger target than Twellman and also has that passing ability you mentioned so I can justify his inclusion.

As far as Wolff goes, as my previous posts have made clear, I'm not a fan. I think Arena wants to play 2 forwards, one target man and one speedster. Maybe he's even planning to play Donovan up top with McBride (I hope not.) Twellman really doesn't have the speed of Landon, Johnson or Wolff so there you go. Twellman is not really big enough to be a target man and not really fast enough to be the speedster. Still with his nose for the goal, I would have brought him along.

I think Noonan's chance was hurt by his injury. I like him a lot. He's very versatile and people forget he can score. Sure he was third on the Revs team last year but the two ahead of him (and not by much) were Twellman and Dempsey.

I think the big problem for the US is going to be scoring. McBride has been in a bit of a drought lately at Fulham. He's playing well and creating for his teammates but not putting it in the net. Maybe Johnson will break out and become the prolific goalscorer we need so badly. It's good to get some goals from your midfielders but you've got to have a striker that leads the team in scoring.

John OBrien is a big question mark? Will he be injured? Will he be match fit? Will he be in form?

[scottb]

Here's how I line 'em up

Keller

Cherudolo, Pope, Bocanegra, Eddie Lewis

Beasley, Reyna, Donovan, OBrien (Convey)

McBride, Johnson

[Jim R]

I've been slowly pondering the recent announcement of the U.S. roster...

For the most part, it was pretty clear who was going to make the team, but there were a few surprises (and from what I've read, I'm not the only one who is surprised). I don't want to criticize Bruce Arena too much, because he and his staff obviously know what they're doing... but just for the sake of discussion:

Josh Wolff makes the squad while Taylor Twellman does not... although the experience factor is an obvious advantage for Wolff, I'm surprised and disappointed by this particular choice. Wolff may have certain skills that Twellman lacks, but what we're desperate for are people who can score goals. In my opinion, Twellman has far more ability to put the ball in the net. Period. Wolff is more of an assist man, and I think he already have enough of that coming from the midfield players and overlapping defenders. I'm very pleased to see Brian Ching make the team, although I didn't exactly expect it. I think his passing ability (and vision, which goes hand-in-hand with that) is superior to most of our other forwards, and if he gets a chance to play, it might pay off for us to have he and Donovan working their former magic together again. I expected McBride (obviously) and Johnson to make the roster. Along with Twellman and Chris Rolfe (who looks pretty good but is still a bit "green"), our other alternate is Connor Casey... which I do not understand at all.

In the midfield, things were fairly clear-cut... the only surprise for me was Ben Olsen. I think he only made the team due to Steve Ralston's injury situation, which is unfortunate. I have to say, though, that Olsen performed very well when he got his chances to play this year. Armas and Noonan are good to have on the alternates list, and I hope they would be chosen before Chris Klein, if it becomes necessary to choose one.

Things were a bit less obvious in terms of which defenders would make the team. I'm very satisfied with the selections (not a big fan of Berhalter, and the other alternate- Todd Dunivant- is promising but still relatively inexperienced). Too bad for Frankie Hejduk that he got hurt... would have been good to have him on the squad again. I'm not sure Chris Albright can replace him, but Albright may not even get to play. We have a good pool to choose from. I think Corey Gibbs' inclusion was a good move.

Goalkeepers... basically a no-brainer. Kind of strange to have a starter who was on the roster for 1990 (! wow he's old ) 1998, and 2002 and finally getting the nod.

I agree with you. I've tried to rationalize the decision about the forwards and this is what I've come up with.

Ching was picked as a replacement for McBride. If McBride goes down, really Ching is his best replacement. He's a bigger target than Twellman and also has that passing ability you mentioned so I can justify his inclusion.

Right, and Ching is not a bad finisher at all (better than Wolff, that's for sure).

As far as Wolff goes, as my previous posts have made clear, I'm not a fan. I think Arena wants to play 2 forwards, one target man and one speedster. Maybe he's even planning to play Donovan up top with McBride (I hope not.) Twellman really doesn't have the speed of Landon, Johnson or Wolff so there you go. Twellman is not really big enough to be a target man and not really fast enough to be the speedster. Still with his nose for the goal, I would have brought him along.

Good point about Twellman's lack of speed (relatively speaking, of course). That and his lack of experience was probably the clincher.

I think Noonan's chance was hurt by his injury. I like him a lot. He's very versatile and people forget he can score. Sure he was third on the Revs team last year but the two ahead of him (and not by much) were Twellman and Dempsey.

I like Noonan too, and I think he's only going to get better with time. Ralston is probably not as versatile or dangerous as Noonan, but I still think he was ahead of Pat in the pecking order in terms of his experience, his importance as a role player (putting in those great balls from the right flank), and the number of solid contributions he's made in MNT matches over the past few years.

I think the big problem for the US is going to be scoring. McBride has been in a bit of a drought lately at Fulham. He's playing well and creating for his teammates but not putting it in the net. Maybe Johnson will break out and become the prolific goalscorer we need so badly. It's good to get some goals from your midfielders but you've got to have a striker that leads the team in scoring.

Hey, I'll take 'em no matter who scores 'em! I see your point, and I agree in principle, but in a tournament like this, I think all that matters is getting enough goals to win- whether they're coming from McBride and Johnson or Onyewu and Lewis (btw, did you see Eddie's free kick for Leeds this week?). Then again, maybe Cherundolo will get a few more like the one he scored against Germany in March.

John OBrien is a big question mark? Will he be injured? Will he be match fit? Will he be in form?

I think that's what everyone is wondering... I hope and suspect that he'll be ready to go after the camp in NC. With his experience, he can probably afford to rest any injuries more than some of the younger players.

Here's how I line 'em up

Keller

Cherudolo, Pope, Bocanegra, Eddie Lewis

Beasley, Reyna, Donovan, OBrien (Convey)

McBride, Johnson

Looks really good Scott... I know you like SPEED! I think I'd try it like this:

Keller

Cherundolo, Onyewu, Pope, Bocanegra (or Lewis... tough call)

Reyna, Mastroeni

Donovan, Dempsey

McBride, Johnson

It's hard to leave O'Brien out of the starting lineup, and he may get the nod at the beginning due to his experience, but I think we're really going to need Dempsey's creativity and attacking ability. He's young, but he's proven his mettle. I'd put him out there. I still see Mastroeni as an important defensive player, and I think Beasley would serve better as a sparkplug type of reserve player for situations where we need to run at people. And you know what? I hope Josh Wolff proves us both wrong. He's got some good qualities, a lot of experience, and if the ball rolls right for him maybe he can put a few in the net. I'd be very happy for him, because I think he's a good guy who has worked hard.

Fun to speculate about this, and man does it feel good to have some depth.

[kenny weir]

Sent to me by a colleague this morning. Obviously for a Brit audience, so insert specifics appropriate to your location. My own single life viewing will be scattered between 10pm to 6am.

List Of Rules For The Wife During The World Cup

1. From 9 June to 9 July 2006, you should read the The Sun's sport pages

so you are aware of what's going on regarding the World Cup and will be

able to join in conversations.

If you fail to do this, you'll be looked at in a bad way or be totally

ignored. DO NOT complain about not receiving any attention.

2. During the World Cup the television is mine at all times - without any

exceptions.

3. I don't mind if you have to pass by in front of the TV during a game -

as long as you do it crawling on the floor and without distracting me.

If you decide to stand naked in front of the TV, make sure you put clothes

on right after because if you catch a cold, I won't have time to take you

to the doctor or look after you during the World Cup month.

4. During the games I will be blind, deaf and mute - unless I require a

refill of my drink or something to eat.

You are out of your mind if you expect me to listen to you, open the door,

answer the telephone, or pick up the baby that just fell from the second

floor....it won't happen.

5. It would be a good idea for you to keep at least two six packs in the

fridge at all times, as well as plenty of things to nibble on.

And please do not make any funny faces to my friends when they come over

to watch the games. In return, you will be allowed to use the TV between

12am and 6am, unless they replay a good game that I missed during the day.

6. Please, please, please if you see me upset because one of my teams is

losing, DO NOT say "get over it, its only a game" or "don't worry, they'll

win next time".

If you say these things, you will only make me angrier and I will love you

less. Remember, you will never ever know more about football than me and

your so called "words of encouragement" will only lead to a break-up or

divorce.

7. You are welcome to sit with me to watch one game and you can talk to me

during half-time but only when the adverts are on, and only if the score is

pleasing me.

In addition, please note I am saying "one" game, hence do not use the

World Cup as a nice cheesy excuse to "spend time together".

8. The replays of the goals are very important. I don't care if I have

seen them or I haven't seen them, I want to see them again. Many times.

9. Tell your friends NOT to have any babies, or any other child related

parties or gatherings that requires my attendance because:

a) I will not go,

b) I will not go, and

c) I will not go.

10. But, if a friend of mine invites us to his house on a Sunday to watch

a game, we will be there in a flash.

11. The daily World Cup highlights show on TV every night is just as

important as the games themselves. Do not even think about saying "but you

have already seen this...why don't you change the channel to something we

can all watch?" The reply will be: "Refer to Rule #2 of this list".

12. And finally, please save your expressions such as "Thank God the World

Cup is only every 4 years".

I am immune to these words, because after this comes the Champions League,

Italian League, Spanish League, Premier League, etc etc.

Thank you for your cooperation.

Regards,

Men of the World

[scottb]

I picked up my high definition converter from the cable company earlier this week. It also has a DVR feature so I won't be missing ANYTHING this World Cup. Except maybe sleep as I stay up all night watching ALL the games from the day.

[porcy62]

If you in US are worried about italian team, just take a look at this, I presume it will be a pain in the a** for our coach and players.

BTW, this is only the last of a long list of scandals, corruptions and financial frauds in italian football leaugue.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/europe/4765173.stm

http://www.corriere.it/english/articoli/20.../juve_cda.shtml

[brownie]

French soccer team coach Raymond Domenech announced today at a news conference the lineup for the national team at the World Cup.

Only real good news is that the brilliant midfield star Frank Ribery, 22, will finally make it to the team. Another rising star defender Pascal Chimboda also joins the national team for the first time.

Domenech insisted on having Fabien Barthez as nr. 1 goalkeeper despite the fact that Lyon's Gregory Coupet has proved to be a much more effective goalie. A mistake as far as I am concerned. Barthez is well past his prime but Domenech obviously feels safer with the veteran Barthez.

Other valuable players that were left out of the team include Robert Pires, Barcelona's Ludovic Giuly and Nicolas Anelka. Domenech never hid the fact that he hates Pires.

One leftover from the 1998 Cup winning team is Lilian Thuram who has not been very effective for the past months.

[marcoliv]

shall i do any comment? better no.....

who did most for french football? Domenech or Pires?

Marcus

[brownie]

Marcus, the French team does make some sense! However I wish Domenech had made up his mind earlier about Ribery and Chimboda and given them a chance to play matches with the national team.

The Barthez selection makes sense also since if Domenech had had the guts to pick the logical goalkeeper Gregory Coupet, he would have had to fight every day of the tournament with Barthez who would never would have accepted being in the nr. 2 position.

Let's hope for the best now!

[P.L.M]

shall i do any comment? better no.....

who did most for french football? Domenech or Pires?

Marcus

Maybe at the end of the WC it will be DOMENECH.

The real bad news here, for me, it's, one more time, the left out of ANELKA.

I'm not a fan of CISSE. I prefer SAHA, but CISSE and SAHA has the same profile and the same default (pace but not much technic).

ANELKA had both + a lot experience. He is able to keep the ball and to make space for the other.

Really, too bad.

Edited May 15, 2006 by P.L.M

[brownie]

ANELKA had both + a lot experience. He is able to keep the ball and to make space for the other.

Really, too bad.

It's mostly Anelka's fault that he is not on the team. Even if he did play well for France in the games he was picked for, he has proven so many times to be too erratic.

Domenech had to choose between Anelka and Ribery, I have no argument with his decision.

[P.L.M]

It's mostly Anelka's fault that he is not on the team. Even if he did play well for France in the games he was picked for, he has proven so many times to be too erratic.

Domenech had to choose between Anelka and Ribery, I have no argument with his decision.

I don't think than Domenech has to choose between ANELKA & RIBERY.

The choice was between RIBERY & GIULY rather.

And this choice is ok in my book even if RIBERY is not (yet?) the little marvel that you seems to think, BROWNIE.

A good player, certainly, who have everything to proove and, first, that he is a world class player.

We'll see.

My concern about ANELKA was that the guy could feet perfectly with both HENRY and TREZEGUET or be on his own.

And I don't see the interest to bring FOUR strikers to GERMANY when we know that there is great chance that only one will play per match. And, more than that, to bring three strikers who share more or less the same caracteristics (HENRY, CISSE, SAHA).

Could have live CISSE home and brings DACOURT, instead. Or ROTHEN. There is nearly NO left footed players in this band (MALOUDA, ABIDAL, SILVESTRE, who else? BARTHEZ?) what could be a problem.

Edited May 15, 2006 by P.L.M

[marcoliv]

i would say that the only difference from 2002 is that we know this time the brick wall is coming...at least my airbag will be active this time

sadly Rothen is far away from his regular level so he woulda been a great option. i'm glad Giuly is not there and if i was the coach Anelka would never had a chance to comeback. i'm very worried we are taking Chibonda & Ribery to a World Cup without a previous single test but Domenech is one of the most skilled coaches i've ever known....

i don't think Saha could be on the group too and Cisse claims to be a much more skillful player but his ability to miss easy goals is very special....

if we could have Juninho on the team i'll be glad but Parreira is the brazilian Domenech so incredibly he will be on the brazilian bench.

my major concern is which Thierry Henry will play on the WC. the Gunner striker or the ghost player who did nothing on the Euro2004 and got a stupid red card on the WC2002. he is the guy who supposedly should do the difference for the french team.

i'm glad Totti is fit again..i'm counting with the italian team on the first knock-out round

Marcus

[marcoliv]

Marcus, the French team does make some sense!

true Brownie but it's hard to admit that we are going to a WC with 0% of chance to clinch the title. i'll try to remain calm

Marcus

[brownie]

We could go on and on with this...

I'll try to wait until the World Cup gets underway. Hope I will not have to complain too loud when it gets going!

[rostasi]

All I know about this FIFA business

is that it's made a serious dent in my summer

schedule in Germany. Hotels are charging

three times as much on weekdays and SIX times

as much on FR/SA/SU.

[couw]

All I know about this FIFA business

is that it's made a serious dent in my summer

schedule in Germany. Hotels are charging

three times as much on weekdays and SIX times

as much on FR/SA/SU.

get out of the towns, find a nice hamlet to spend time, rent a room from a friendly old lady.

[Jim R]

All I know about this FIFA business

is that it's made a serious dent in my summer

schedule in Germany. Hotels are charging

three times as much on weekdays and SIX times

as much on FR/SA/SU.

get out of the towns, find a nice hamlet to spend time, rent a room from a friendly old lady.

Or save even MORE money and stay with a friendly, and oh so generous board member!