Baseball 2005

[Brad]

  BERIGAN said:

  Brad said:

Mets on a roll   .  Let's see what develops.  Not going crazy yet.  This is just a build up until next year but they're only 4 behind the tomahawk choppin' fools.

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Dream on! It is written that the Braves win every Division race til the year 2055.

It is also written that the Braves then will lose in the first or second round every year.

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Dream on is right, you follower of now outlawed monikers . Losing 2 of 3 and scoring three runs the whole weekend ain't going to make it. The whole division is not that strong. Cards are going to win the league anyway.

[Dan Gould]

  ghost of miles said:

  MartyJazz said:

Red Sox now up on Yanks by only 1-1/2 games.  Looks like the six games left between the two teams will decide another AL East division champ.

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Statistically speaking, I'd say the odds are against the Yanks... they've got 10 more road games than home ones left, whereas it's the exact opposite with the Bosox. And both teams have much better percentages at home this year.

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This is true, but for that to make the difference, it all depends on what the Sox do in the next ten games of this season-long home stand. After that, its an even split between home and road games, so the Sox need to win about 9 of 10 on the balance of this home stand and hope that we get some help from whoever the Yanks play so that we can pad the lead before the first Yankee series of the month.

The odds ought to favor the Sox, but realistically, Marty is probably right and the division will come down to the head-to-head results.

[Johnny E]

I hope the M's can play the role of big time spoiler for the next few days.

Yankee Go Home! - Bunch of spoiled whiny little bitches.

[Big Al]

GO MARINERS!!!! Edited August 29, 2005 by Big Al

[Dave James]

Giambi is on fire. Two more home runs tonight, four more RBI's and the game is only in the 6th inning. That's four "see ya's" and 11 plated in two games. Someone is gonna have to hose that boy down with cracked ice.

Up over and out.

Edited August 30, 2005 by Dave James

[Johnny E]

  Big Al said:

GO MARINERS!!!!

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DOH!

[Johnny E]

  Dave James said:

Giambi is on fire.  Two more home runs tonight, four more RBI's and the game is only in the 6th inning.  That's four "see ya's" and 11 plated in two games.  Someone is gonna have to hose  that boy down with cracked ice.

Up over and out.

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What is he back on the juice again?

[Dave James]

Johnny,

You sure can't help but wonder about that, although Giambi's late July and most of August slump would tend to argue against his resumption. Hopefully, this isn't the case. You'd think he would have learned his lesson.

David Wells just blasted the Commish by saying that there are lots of guys who are still juicing and everyone knows it, but they're not getting caught. In Giambi's case, he gets tested so often and has such a high doping profile, I'd think it would be doubly difficult for him to be using and not get turfed. Of course, it could be some new undetectable designer steroid or HGH, i.e. drugs for which there is no reliable testing protocol.

Up over and out.

[Dave James]

Calling Dan Gould;

You must be quaking in your boots. First the Yanks add Wayne Embry and now it looks like Mark Bellhorn is about to sign on with the evil empire. I mean, he's hitting all of one point above the Mendoza Line. How scary is that?

Up over and out.

[MartyJazz]

  Dave James said:

Calling Dan Gould;

You must be quaking in your boots.  First the Yanks add Wayne Embry and now it looks like Mark Bellhorn is about to sign on with the evil empire.  I mean, he's hitting all of one point above the Mendoza Line.  How scary is that?

Up over and out.

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You must be as old as I am. I recall Wayne Embry. He played about 11 years in the NBA, ending his career sometime around 1970 I think. Alan Embree is the pitcher the Yanks signed after he was waived by the Red Sox.

[Dan Gould]

Well, I am near to quaking in my boots, but its not over Bellhorn joining the evil empire. Its the state of the bullpen, the fact that Foulke does not look much improved, and now Craig Hansen, the super-draftee, has been shut down with a 'tired arm'. Hopefully this is a short-term thing, like a pitcher's "dead arm" in Spring Training (remember, he wasn't throwing from the end of St. John's season til he signed) but a lot of Red Sox Nation was expecting him to be in a Sox uniform on September 1 and that's not going to happen.

I'm hearing rumors about Trachsel being traded by the Mets and that sounds like a great pickup. Put Trachsel in the rotation and Arroyo in the pen. But can a deal be struck with so little time remaining for playoff rosters?

But back to Bellhorn. Are they really that down on Cano because of his slump? Bellhorn hit .117 on his rehab, that's a lot worse than Cano has been recently! The only thing I can think of is the possibility that that Bellhorn becomes the late-inning defensive replacement for Cano. And how ironic is that? For those 8 magical games, Bellhorn had a defensive replacement himself, Pokey Reese!

[Big Al]

What’s up with Mark Buehrle? Has this guy been taking paranoia lessons from the last great Whiet Sox wack-job, Jack McDowell? Accusing the Rangers of stealing signals from center-field, using that as the excuse as to why he got hammered Monday night, as well as why they have a better average at home than on the road (yeah, like THAT never happens to a team). What an idiot. I guess he hasn’t noticed that a) his team has the best record in baseball right now and b) the Rangers’ overall record (and their third-place standing) shows that, even if they were getting signals, they don’t know much what to do with them; has he not seen the Rangers average with runners in scoring position? Pitiful.

I like what Ozzie said about the little twerp: “They didn’t need no signals; everything he threw was right down the middle.”

What a jerk. Is he always like this when he loses?

[jazzypaul]

Hey, we're making fun of Buerhle's remarks too...

But what'd you think of McCarthy?

[sheldonm]

[i guess he hasn’t noticed that a) his team has the best record in baseball right now and b)

....they actually have the best record in the AL and the second best in baseball. They are also getting beat in the 7th inning today. The Northside Cubs are being one-hit in the eighth....poor hapless Cubbies!

Edited August 31, 2005 by sheldonm

[Big Al]

  jazzypaul said:

Hey, we're making fun of Buerhle's remarks too...

But what'd you think of McCarthy?

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He was good! But I wonder what Buerhle thought of McCarthy? Obviously, we must've switched off the lights for the rookie!

[Dave James]

Calling Dan Gould,

Here's something to keep you up until midnight tonight wringing your hands. You were wondering why the Yanks would sign Mark Bellhorn when they already have a second baseman. Maybe Robinson Cano is part of a bigger game that's afoot. Maybe a game the size of Ken Griffey. Junior said today on ESPN that he would not go to the White Sox. That would seem to leave the door open for his going someplace else. Junior in pinstripes? How sweet would that be?

Up over and out.

[Dan Gould]

  Dave James said:

Calling Dan Gould,

Here's something to keep you up until midnight tonight wringing your hands.  You were wondering why the Yanks would sign Mark Bellhorn when they already have a second baseman.  Maybe Robinson Cano is part of a bigger game that's afoot.  Maybe a game the size of Ken Griffey.  Junior said today on ESPN that he would not go to the White Sox.  That would seem to leave the door open for his going someplace else.  Junior in pinstripes?  How sweet would that be?

Up over and out.

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You know, I might be concerned about this possibility if it wasn't 8 pm Eastern time on the deadline for post-season rosters, and there isn't a whiff, not a hint of this possibility on ESPN.com.

[Dave James]

Yeah, but you know how sometimes these deals are actually done, but, for whatever reason, they hold off announcing them.

Actually, I was just trying to get all worked up. I don't think this is going to happen either.

Up over and out.

[Big Al]

Wow, 3 of 4 from the Sox. Who'da thunk? Not me, Icantellyouthat!

[Dave James]

I see where the Yankees donated one million dollars towards relief efforts on the Gulf Coast. Perhaps they should be referred to as "the not-so-evil empire" for at least the time being.

Up over and out.

[Soulstation1]

sept 1 and griffey jr. is still playin'

i don't believe it

can he hit 40 hrs?

ss1

[PHILLYQ]

  Dave James said:

Calling Dan Gould,

Here's something to keep you up until midnight tonight wringing your hands.  You were wondering why the Yanks would sign Mark Bellhorn when they already have a second baseman.  Maybe Robinson Cano is part of a bigger game that's afoot.  Maybe a game the size of Ken Griffey.  Junior said today on ESPN that he would not go to the White Sox.  That would seem to leave the door open for his going someplace else.  Junior in pinstripes?  How sweet would that be?

Up over and out.

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I'm glad that the Yanks didn't get Junior- he's had quite a few injuries in the last few years and I'm sure if the Yanks got him he'd blow out a knee, elbow, etc.

[Dan Gould]

Very interesting website here.

Basically, it predicts final standings, wild card winners based on the games remaining and a variation on the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem." Here's the explanation they give:

  Quote

Your team is 6 games back in August - can they realistically come back and win the division? Does it really help to know that the magic number for the team they're chasing is 37? What you'd really like to know is what chance your team has of winning its division, winning the wildcard, or just making the playoffs either way.

coolstandings.com calculates exactly that, for EVERY team, EVERY day. The following "coolstats" are updated daily:

DIV - % chance each team has of winning division 

WC - % chance each team has of winning the wild card 

POFF - % chance each team has of making the playoffs 

A DIV of 50.0 means your team has a 50% chance of winning the division. A WC of 100.0 means you've got the wild card wrapped up. And a POFF of 0.0 means "wait till next year!"

How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers.

The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results. Pretty smart, huh? That's why we call this prediction mode "Smart mode".

Another method is to simply assume that any team has a 50-50 shot of beating any other team. You could flip a coin to decide who would win each game. This method isn't too realistic, but it usually gives Chicago teams a better shot at the division. For lack of a better term, we call this prediction mode "Dumb mode".

So keep track of your team, and check back with us daily to see how last night's scores changed the playoff landscape!

So, on the far right of the standings you see Predicted Wins, Predicted Losses, and percent chance of winning the division, winning the wild card and making the playoffs (division chance + wild card chance).

Bottom line, and I have to say this surprises me, but the Yanks trail all American League contenders with just a 36% chance of making the playoffs. The Indians, as of right now, are the favorites for the Wild Card, at a 47% chance.

Of course, its just an exercise in statistics, but its still something interesting to keep an eye on in September.

[Soulstation1]

i remember getting this card from a pack

damn near 30 years ago

i might still have it?

[Soulstation1]

why is barry coming back with a month left in the season?

looks like griffey's foot is hurt